Communist Greece: consequences on its periphery?

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Suppose the Communists win the Greek Civil War. What would this mean for Greece territorially? If the victory is before the peace treaty with Italy, would it still receive the Dodecanese? Would Stalin push for it to join a Balkan federation, as he did for Yugoslavia, Bulgaria and Albania? Would it have to cede Aegean Macedonia and Greek Thrace, and would Albania have to cede Northern Epirus to it, either within our outside the context of that Balkan federation? And what repercussions would a communist Greece have on the British colony of Cyprus?

 

[MSZ]

I imagine a Taiwan-scenario would occur, with the legitimate government relocating to Crete and other Greek islans on the Aegean Sea; the communist Greece government beeing unrecognized by the west. This in turn might lead to Cyprus becoming Turkish, either due to Turkey becoming more important in the region or as a result of Turkish invasion of the island being not resisted by Greece.

 

[New Potomac]

I imagine a Taiwan-scenario would occur, with the legitimate government relocating to Crete and other Greek islans on the Aegean Sea; the communist Greece government beeing unrecognized by the west. This in turn might lead to Cyprus becoming Turkish, either due to Turkey becoming more important in the region or as a result of Turkish invasion of the island being not resisted by Greece.

With no military junta in Athens capable of instigating the Cypriot Coup in the first place, the Turks wouldn't have any reason to intervene on the island. Though what ultimately does happen to Cyprus will be interesting...

 

[Dementor]

Suppose the Communists win the Greek Civil War. What would this mean for Greece territorially? If the victory is before the peace treaty with Italy, would it still receive the Dodecanese? Would Stalin push for it to join a Balkan federation, as he did for Yugoslavia, Bulgaria and Albania? Would it have to cede Aegean Macedonia and Greek Thrace, and would Albania have to cede Northern Epirus to it, either within our outside the context of that Balkan federation? And what repercussions would a communist Greece have on the British colony of Cyprus?

Unless the Balkan federation idea comes to pass, there probably wouldn't be any territorial exchanges. And that is still dependent on Tito and Stalin not falling out.

I imagine a Taiwan-scenario would occur, with the legitimate government relocating to Crete and other Greek islans on the Aegean Sea; the communist Greece government beeing unrecognized by the west. This in turn might lead to Cyprus becoming Turkish, either due to Turkey becoming more important in the region or as a result of Turkish invasion of the island being not resisted by Greece.

Unlikely, as handing the island to Turkey would be a huge propaganda coup to the Greek Communist government. It's more likely that Cyprus would be added to the democratic Greece to bolster it.

 

[Don Grey]

With no military junta in Athens capable of instigating the Cypriot Coup in the first place, the Turks wouldn't have any reason to intervene on the island. Though what ultimately does happen to Cyprus will be interesting...

If greece mainland doesnt try to pull and enosis then no there wouldnt be an invasion. Also cyprus cant wilfuly join either that would make turkey freak the fuck out as they would literaly be boxed in.britan wouldnt allow it either as they have sovering bases there. I expect a more chatoic turkey as turkey it self had its on red scar and did lots of things that were horrible under the name of cuting off soviet influence.I expect turkish-left to be completly wiped out, out of fear. And and even more militarist turkey.

 

[Dan1988]

I imagine a Taiwan-scenario would occur, with the legitimate government relocating to Crete and other Greek islans on the Aegean Sea; the communist Greece government beeing unrecognized by the west.

The only area of a revived "Kingdom of Greece" that I could see would be the Dodecanese, as that was Italian beforehand. Then again, it's not like a Communist Greece would notice - for the most part, historically speaking the Greek left was anti-enosis/anti-Megali Idea, so a Communist Greece would definitely not have pretensions over that. Which could lead to an interesting where since Communist Greece would only recognize the Dodecanese under its pre-war status as an Italian colony, all residents of the Dodecanese would have to use Italian passports instead of "Kingdom of Greece" passports, for example.

 

[Wolfpaw]

A Titoist regime in Athens in competition with an archipelagic Kingdom of Greece centered in Heraklion, with the King splitting his time between Crete, Rhodes, and Cyprus.

Britain likely becomes the KoG's main backer in an effort to bolster its position in the eastern Med. The Navy presumably displaces the Army as the big dog in KoG politics.

The big question is how many islands the Communists manage to get control of, especially the Ioanian, Saronic, and Sporades.

 

[MUC]

A communist Greece may mean that Turkey goes the Finnish way. Keeping Turkey resupplied in the event of hostlities is a lot morebdifficult now and the Warsaw Pact has direct access to the Med. I imagine butterflies in the Middle East as well, with the USSR being able to support its allies easier through Greece.

 

[Wolfpaw]

A communist Greece may mean that Turkey goes the Finnish way. Keeping Turkey resupplied in the event of hostlities is a lot morebdifficult now and the Warsaw Pact has direct access to the Med. I imagine butterflies in the Middle East as well, with the USSR being able to support its allies easier through Greece.

Turkey probably starts freaking out now that it is surrounded by Communists and otherwise Moscow-friendly states.

 

[ccdsah]

Chances for this are slim. Churchill and Stalin agreed Greece will be in British sphere of influence post war

 

[Dave Howery]

A communist Greece may mean that Turkey goes the Finnish way. Keeping Turkey resupplied in the event of hostlities is a lot morebdifficult now and the Warsaw Pact has direct access to the Med. I imagine butterflies in the Middle East as well, with the USSR being able to support its allies easier through Greece.

that's if this commie Greece joins the WP in the first place, not always a given... Moscow had problems post ww2 with communist countries going their separate ways. If Greece does join the WP, the ports there do cause a problem in NATO planning for the Med, yet Moscow still faces a problem... all her other ports are on the wrong side of the Bosporus strait, and Turkey still has a choke hold on reinforcements moving from Greece to the Black sea, etc. If Greece goes her own way like Yugoslavia and Albania, then NATO's problem is less severe...

 

[MUC]

that's if this commie Greece joins the WP in the first place, not always a given... Moscow had problems post ww2 with communist countries going their separate ways. If Greece does join the WP, the ports there do cause a problem in NATO planning for the Med, yet Moscow still faces a problem... all her other ports are on the wrong side of the Bosporus strait, and Turkey still has a choke hold on reinforcements moving from Greece to the Black sea, etc. If Greece goes her own way like Yugoslavia and Albania, then NATO's problem is less severe...

Moscow can simply move its fleet to Greece and build ports there to support it, as well as shipyards (Greece used to have quite a tradition in shipbuilding). With Greece in the WP, the Eastern Med badically turns into a Commie lake with the exceptions of Turkey (if it stays in NATO), Cyprus and Israel.
I can see Cyprus going Red as well in such an ATL.

 

[Arachnid]

Cyprus is still under British control and when decolonisation comes around it will probably be handed over to the Kingdom of Greece rather than allowed to go Red.

 

[Wolfpaw]

Cyprus is still under British control and when decolonisation comes around it will probably be handed over to the Kingdom of Greece rather than allowed to go Red.

This.

It'd be interesting to see what sort of effect this situation would have on Greco-Turkish relations, especially between the KoG and Ankara.

 

[MUC]

Cyprus is still under British control and when decolonisation comes around it will probably be handed over to the Kingdom of Greece rather than allowed to go Red.

The problem is, that with Greecegoing Red, Cypriotic liberation movements are likely to be infiltrated by Communists. This may mean, that a democratically elected government in Cyprus nay be Red.
Historically Communists have always been powerful in Cyprus and popular with the people. Their current president is in fact a Commie!

 

[Wolfpaw]

The problem is, that with Greecegoing Red, Cypriotic liberation movements are likely to be infiltrated by Communists. This may mean, that a democratically elected government in Cyprus nay be Red.

Depends how brutal the KoG and the Brits are about stamping out the Reds. Engaging Cyprus' Turkish population rather than engaging in ethnic cleansing and mutilating the island would probably be enough to counterbalance any Red influence.