The Germans would have an existing market in Europe, though, not only in Central Europe but also in the Nordic area, say, where the Finns and Swedes used Junkers planes in the 20s and 30s and the Swedish also built them on licence. And so while American companies would do well internationally in some regards, I'd expect the German manufacturers will still do fairly well at least in the European market come the 40s and 50s, based on existing links and cooperation.
Commercial and Military Aviation without World War II
- Thread starter Delta Force
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The Germans would have an existing market in Europe, though, not only in Central Europe but also in the Nordic area, say, where the Finns and Swedes used Junkers planes in the 20s and 30s and the Swedish also built them on licence. And so while American companies would do well internationally in some regards, I'd expect the German manufacturers will still do fairly well at least in the European market come the 40s and 50s, based on existing links and cooperation.
Its hard to say how things would have gone if the germans hadn't been fully wrapped up militarizing, however i suspect they'd only have done a bit better tjan the french & british, which isnt saying much.
OTL:
The last aircraft purchased before the war by the Norwegian Det Norske Luftfartselskap were DC-2s and DC-3s, six of each. AB Aerotransport (Swedish Air Lines) bought its first DC-3 in 1937. LOT of Poland bought DC-2s and Lockheed 10s & 14s. KLM bought Lockheed 10, DC2, 3 and even managed to squeeze in a delivery of DC-5s. Swissair bought DC2 &3s.The Romanian LARES bought Lockheed 10, DC-3 and DH89. British Airways Ltd bought 16 Lockheeds. Even the Soviets chose the DC-2 and DC-3 to first buy and then licence.
Heinkel seems to have been nowhere in civilian transport, so what were the wins for Junkers? Deutsche Lufthansa - formed in 1923 by a merger including Junkers Luftverkehr. Aero O/Y (FinnAir) - 50% owned by Junkers, acquired in exchange for aircraft and services in 1923. Austrian Airlines - 49% owned by Junkers.
Other than that - Malert of Hungary bought Junkers 52/3, but also Focke-Wulf 58 and Savoia-Marchetti SM-75, which is an odd set of choices. Bunavad of Bulgaria was set up in 1926 with help frum junker but went into the toilet during the depression. Det Danske Luftfartselskab bought at least one junkers and a pair of FW200 to go with their Fokkers.
About the Swedish Aerotransport: from the late 30s to the late 40s they used German and American planes in similar numbers, only after the war did they go fully American. Finnish Aero (in fully Finnish ownership since the late 20s) would have received two FW200s to use as the premier aircraft to use during the 1940 Olympics had the war not broken out.
Like your list also shows, the German companies could have had a market in Europe without the war. Perhaps not as the dominant players, but as players nonetheless.
One has to remember that the development of civilian aircraft in Europe was held back by the arms race and even more the outbreak of the war. Just a few examples: The FW 206 was an almost copy of the DC-3 and was intended as a short to middle range supplement for the FW 200. The prototype was not completed due to the outbreak of the war. In 39 FW also presented the RLM with the plans of the pressure cabine equippedFW-300 and even began some practical preparations. The airplane had in early plannings almost twice the range of the contemporary Stratoliner while carrying more passengers, later developments even extended the range. The development at first was also cancelled due to the war and resumed only after the fall of France when SNCASO was ordered to do so. Despite minimum priority the aircraft was ready to enter production by 42 when it was finally cancelled in favour of military aircraft.
One also has to remember that DLH was the first really globally operating airline with joint-ventures or outright ownership of airlines in Russia, China, Spain and all major South American states (that market they were really dominating at the time) in addition to their own lines. They also invested a lot of money into long-range regular service: direct connection to China proved too much given technical, political and financial limits of the time. They did make direct connections Berlin-New York and Berlin-Tokio, but neither was started as a regular service before the war. All of that work was destroyed by the war, the daugther airlines and their infrastructure taken over by the states they operated in, long range lines interrupted and taken up by others before Lufthansa was refounded.
Luft Hansa and its daughters can be certain to buy at least some aircrafts in Germany and one can add the international airlines which were loyal German customers (South African Airlines or the Greek national airline for example, DDL also used mainly German planes in addition to their Fokkers) until the war cut the ties. There are also Airlines which will be interested in certain planes, as shown by those orders cut by the war. I would say that in the medium term the Germans will be able to compete with the American aircraft producers. In the long run who knows? Pressure cabins were about to be introduced on both sides about 1940. In jet engines the US was clearly behind Germany and would most likely not get the British plans without the war to jumpstart them. Then again both the British and German projects were military in nature and who knows whether the Germans, British,the US despite lagging several years behind or someone entirely else produces the first commercial jet. In turboprop design the Hungarians are far ahead until the 40s otl, but I don´t really see them cornering that market.
One also has to remember that DLH was the first really globally operating airline with joint-ventures or outright ownership of airlines in Russia, China, Spain and all major South American states (that market they were really dominating at the time) in addition to their own lines. They also invested a lot of money into long-range regular service: direct connection to China proved too much given technical, political and financial limits of the time. They did make direct connections Berlin-New York and Berlin-Tokio, but neither was started as a regular service before the war. All of that work was destroyed by the war, the daugther airlines and their infrastructure taken over by the states they operated in, long range lines interrupted and taken up by others before Lufthansa was refounded.
Luft Hansa and its daughters can be certain to buy at least some aircrafts in Germany and one can add the international airlines which were loyal German customers (South African Airlines or the Greek national airline for example, DDL also used mainly German planes in addition to their Fokkers) until the war cut the ties. There are also Airlines which will be interested in certain planes, as shown by those orders cut by the war. I would say that in the medium term the Germans will be able to compete with the American aircraft producers. In the long run who knows? Pressure cabins were about to be introduced on both sides about 1940. In jet engines the US was clearly behind Germany and would most likely not get the British plans without the war to jumpstart them. Then again both the British and German projects were military in nature and who knows whether the Germans, British,the US despite lagging several years behind or someone entirely else produces the first commercial jet. In turboprop design the Hungarians are far ahead until the 40s otl, but I don´t really see them cornering that market.
Oh, I completely agree. But nonetheless, what we see from OTL is a bunch of paper aeroplanes or low volume prototypes on the commercial side when US companies had actual deliveries of far more sophisticated aircraft.
Even in the early thirties aircraft from US manufacturers were winning out in the big expensive 'flagship' segment, and once that happens then there is a strong incentive to also buy the smaller aircraft with common engines, parts, cockpits, radios i.e. from the same manufacturer. Look at the DC-2/Boing 247 that were the direct competitors of the Ju52 in the first half of the thirties, and look at the sales figures even outside the US. 'Captive' customers like Lufthansa (for Junkers) and Imperial Airways/BOAC (for any piece of winged junk built in Britain) will only keep you afloat for so long.
The real game change actually happened when the US postal service stopped giving air delivery contracts to one plane outfits and started to issue mail contracts to larger companies covering large areas of the US. These companies then had sufficient muscle to demand better aircraft from manufacturers which is how Boeing, Lockheed and co got their starts.
In fact Boeing had a lot of acrimonious exchanges with Pan Am who kept demanding more and more range and speed from them, it almost looked a bit like bullying. But without this demand, it is likely aviation would have looked a lot different than it does today. During the 20's and early 30's the US military were pretty small customers when compared with the likes of Pan Am or TWA. The US airlines were all demanding more speed, range and comfort, whereas the UK's Imperial Airways wanted range, comfort and speed, as long as it was quicker than a liner they were happy.
In fact Boeing had a lot of acrimonious exchanges with Pan Am who kept demanding more and more range and speed from them, it almost looked a bit like bullying. But without this demand, it is likely aviation would have looked a lot different than it does today. During the 20's and early 30's the US military were pretty small customers when compared with the likes of Pan Am or TWA. The US airlines were all demanding more speed, range and comfort, whereas the UK's Imperial Airways wanted range, comfort and speed, as long as it was quicker than a liner they were happy.
Delta Force
Banned
Would Fokker have been able to modernize and become more competitive in the 1940s? Also, how might the Canadian, Czechoslovakian, Italian, Japanese, and Polish aviation industries have evolved? Would Canada have become a major part of the aviation industry without the Commonwealth Air Training Plan and vast demand for military aircraft during World War II and the Cold War?