Cold War without Red China

[walmart]

China won't be pro western. In fact given China's griveamces against western imperialism, it goes without saying that they would support anti colonial movements throughout Asia and possibly Africa as well.

United States did as well and it still keep an alliance with the European powers

There is no way that a Nationalist China would accept a colonial Indochina, they would continue to supply the Vietnamese as an act of "third world" solidarity,

That would lead to China being surrounded by communist powers.

 

[walmart]

I doubt there would be a war in Algeria, first and foremost. The Viet Minh's victory in the First Indochina War was a rallying cry for other native populations fighting against their colonial overlords.

There still the Suez Crisis to provide a rallying cry and other colonial conflicts can provide a similar boost and general dissatisfaction with French rule as per otl

so they launched an attempted coup against the government in May 1958. Long story short, it resulted in the rise of the Fifth Republic and the end of the war in Algeria with Algerian independence, despite the fact that the French had essentially won the conflict by 1959.

Algeria is a dead letter as long as France isn't willing to oppress them. Algerian population is too high and too in favor of independence to be integrated into France.

 

[Whiteshore]

That would lead to China being surrounded by communist powers.

Eh, there was a "Vietnamese Kuomintang" IOTL (the VNQDD).

 

[walmart]

Eh, there was a "Vietnamese Kuomintang" IOTL (the VNQDD).

Who were crushed by the communists even before the KMT fell in China

 

[Leon Trotsky]

That would lead to China being surrounded by communist powers.

Keep in mind that Ho-Chi-Minh himself inspired his revolution from the 1776 Revolutionary War in America and actively sought recognition and assistance from the United States on several occassions. But because Truman found him to be too leftwing and they also realized the fact that they would be messing with a WW2 ally's colony, they ultimately rebuffed him, and that is when he definitely aligned himself with the Soviets.

If the KMT (Whose founder Sun-Yat-Sen was a leftwinger himself as evidenced by his Three Principles) in China decided to finance him out of Asian anti-imperialist spirit and help him fight off the French with the goal of founding a non-aligned Asian sphere, then I am sure Minh wouldn't align himself with the Soviets, not if he wants a free and sovereign Indochina.

 

[walmart]

Keep in mind that Ho-Chi-Minh himself inspired his revolution from the 1776 Revolutionary War in America and actively sought recognition and assistance from the United States on several occassions.

He was already a communist since the 1920s
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ho_Chi_Minh#In_the_Soviet_Union_and_China

But because Truman found him to be too leftwing

Chang could also find him as too of an issue as well. Given the nightmare the Chinese Communist party caused Chang why take the risk.

 

[Leon Trotsky]

Chang could also find him as too of an issue as well. Given the nightmare the Chinese Communist party caused Chang why did take the risk

Because the Viet Cong were the only national liberation movement in the Indochinese region that had a tangible chance of actually driving out the "foreign devils", and after what the British, French, Germans, Russians, Americans, Portuguese, Japanese did to the country over the centuries, the KMT, if it remained non-aligned, wouldn't want the West to be right on China's doorstep in case the Americans were planning a coup to bring the ROC to their fold. And I am sure Minh would be well aware that without assistance from the KMT, his movement would have been either marginalized or crushed outright.

 

[walmart]

and after what the British, French, Germans, Russians, Americans, Portuguese, Japanese did to the country over the centuries,

Expect a communist victory in Vietnam would lead to communist powers surrounding China. If Chiang wanted Ho-Chi-Minh in charge of Vietnam, He could have forced the French to give it independence in 1946.

, if it remained non-aligned, wouldn't want the West to be right on China's doorstep

Why would being surrounded by the Soviet Union and it's allies be better ?

in case the Americans were planning a coup to bring the ROC to their fold

Chiang would too secure in a victory in the Chinese civil war . Given he is now the victory of two wars and the unifier of China.

 

[Aisha Clan-Clan]

Ho Chi Minh would go 'generic third world style naitonalist' route instead of being pro-communist due to China being next there. Since Vietnam wouldn't be potentially going communist, no reason for the US to send any troops there or care overly much about the region.

 

[Leon Trotsky]

Why would being surrounded by the Soviet Union and it's allies be better ?

Who says Ho-Chi-Minh would even join the Warsaw Pact/Comecon if ROC was the main driver of his success in Indochina? Especially as China would be easily able to go in and oust him or leave him to the Americans if he tried to disrupt Chiang's sphere. Like interpoltomo said, it would be much more likely for him to become a typical third world non-aligned leftwing nationalist, just like Yugoslavia and Libya were IOTL.

 

[kernals12]

Maybe North Vietnam would still go Communist, but we'd still see South Vietnam break away and this time China would not be giving massive assistance to the Viet Cong.

In fact, we could see the Vietnam war be reversed, with Anti-Communist Guerillas in the North being lavishly supported by Saigon, Beijing, and Washington.

 

[kernals12]

Oh dear God, yes. I'm not saying Latin America would be squeaky clean, but it would look a hell of a lot better. No Chavez in Venezuela, no military regime in Brazil, no Pinochet in Chile, etc. If Latin America was stabilized, then there would be little to no mass migrations of people trying to seek refuge in the United States.

Mexico, the most stable country in Latin America, has been by far the largest source of Latino immigrants to the US.

 

[kernals12]

Another butterfly is that North Korea may collapse and be annexed peacefully when the USSR collapses. Without Soviet and Chinese aid, combined by the fact that North Korea is now surrounded by hostile nations, the regime might collapse on itself. In OTL, North Korea went through the worst famine in recent memory and had a complete economic meltdown. A US leaning China might tip the balance and pressure the nation to accept reunification like Germany.

If the Korean war starts as it did IOTL, China would probably invade and that would be that. Because of that, Kim Il Sung might decide not to invade, or Syngman Rhee might be emboldened to invade.

 

[kernals12]

Would the USSR be risking major border clashes with the KMT China if the US signaled strong support via continuous supply of arms and aid?

Hell with the USSR encircled i can see their hostile posture diminish as any major war that erupts means they'll get gangraped on all sides by the West and China/Japan. Nukes mean they can defend their own sovereignty but offensive action with such a wide border to defend is suicide. A resurgent China im sure would love to get back their old Qing era lands and swipe everything east of Lake Baikal in the process.

I can totally see this chastised USSR decide to make nice with the West and overall tensions going down as a result. Might end up a much better world as no arms races and Cold War shenanigans screwing everything up.

The US would not support such a stupid move by China. They were not interested in starting World War 3.

 

[walmart]

Ho Chi Minh would go 'generic third world style naitonalist' route instead of being pro-communist due to China being next there.

Who says Ho-Chi-Minh would even join the Warsaw Pact/Comecon if ROC was the main driver of his success in Indochina?

He was already a communist since the 1920s with links to both Soviet Union and the Chinese communist party. There no reason for Chiang to support a communist leader with links to both of his opponents leading to China being surrounded by communist states.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ho_Chi_Minh#In_the_Soviet_Union_and_China

 

[Vae Victus]

The US would not support such a stupid move by China. They were not interested in starting World War 3.

Well i'd assume KMT Chinese Civil War victory would mean a crapton of US arms and aid being pumped in to keep em afloat.

There's no way in hell KMT China would attack the USSR, but would the USSR be willing to smack around China if they felt the Chinese were getting uppity? Smacking around China would just drive them deeper into the US orbit. Whereas OTL the ChiComs were being smacked around with wild abandon since they didnt have anyone willing to support them due to being Commies.

 

[Bluesock]

[

He was already a communist since the 1920s with links to both Soviet Union and the Chinese communist party. There no reason for Chiang to support a communist leader with links to both of his opponents leading to China being surrounded by communist states.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ho_Chi_Minh#In_the_Soviet_Union_and_China

There is quite a high chance of KMT China invading French Indochina and setting up a puppet government in North Vietnam. You are underestimating China's anti colonial streak with its history of unequal treaties and a world order dominated by white supremacy Post WW2 dependent on when Nationalist China wins the French would not be able to resist the Chinese and would be forced out by them instead of the Vietnamese. Of course this could lead to a Vietnamese communist insurgency against the Chinese, which could have all kinds of other Geo Political effects.

 

[walmart]

There is quite a high chance of KMT China invading French Indochina

This happened in otl. Chiang handed the Area back over to France.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Indochina_War#After_the_surrender_of_Japan

If Chiang wants France to leave. He can pressure them to leave the Pro-western state of Vietnam as Vietnam's only government.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_Vietnam

You are underestimating China's anti colonial streak with its history of unequal treaties and a world order dominated by white supremacy

Chiang has been fighting a 20 year civil war with the Communist Party backed by the Soviet Union along with surviving a Japanese invasion which far out stripped European acts in China. I doubt Chiang is going to want another opponent in the South and another base for the CCP when he has to deal with the Soviet Union to his North,West, East along with North Korea on the border of Manchuria .

 

[kernals12]

[

There is quite a high chance of KMT China invading French Indochina and setting up a puppet government in North Vietnam. You are underestimating China's anti colonial streak with its history of unequal treaties and a world order dominated by white supremacy Post WW2 dependent on when Nationalist China wins the French would not be able to resist the Chinese and would be forced out by them instead of the Vietnamese. Of course this could lead to a Vietnamese communist insurgency against the Chinese, which could have all kinds of other Geo Political effects.

FDR offered Chiang control of Indochina. Chiang's response was "certainly not!".

 

[TripleCitizen]

Chiang could join SEATO, that could certainly help the organization survive and gain more legitimacy. I’d think the Soviets would have probably just have pivoted towards the Middle East and Africa, maybe even India. Honestly, the Cold War May have been even cooler, but the USA was looking for a enemy in the Soviets and they were more or less gonna find one. The American government had already mostly pivoted to communism being the major foreign and domestic threat by the time of the Marshall Plan. IOTL it was China, but it could have easily have been Hungary, Cuba or Iran that sparked the Red Scare.