Christian Victory at Varna, 1444

[Zeller]

Let's say Władysław takes John Hunyadi's advice to stay put and wait until the army is reformed. It does reform after routing the flanks and takes on the Sultan's janissaries. After a while, Murad II sees that he is soon going to be surrounded and flees.

Soon after that, George Kastrioti Skanderbeg manages to join the crusaders.


How much casualties could be caused to the Ottoman forces?
What opportunites does this victory present to the crusaders?
What are the possible pitfalls?
In general, what effects would this victory have?

 

[Zeller]

Maybe a part of Bulgaria can be liberated right after the victory?
And the Sebs would likely join the crusader efforts.

 

[Zeller]

Okay, so if nobody is interested in going into speculations, let's see how you like the first draft of my idea.


November 10th, 1444, the Battle of Varna

The Hungarian king Władysław Itakes John Hunyadi's advice to stay put and wait until the army is reformed [PoD]. It does reform after routing the flanks and takes on the Murad II’s janissaries.
After a while, Murad II sees that he is soon going to be surrounded and flees.
The Christian army blocks the way to the south, so he goes to north along the coast. The Ottoman troop’s retreat is remarkably organized, the elite Janissaries hold the enemy back as the Sultan falls back and finally manages to escape on a ship.

Soon after that, George Kastrioti Skanderbeg manages to join the crusaders at Nicopolis and they lay siege on the city. They occupy it in mid-December and thus liberate Northern Bulgaria from Ottoman rule. Fruzhin, a Bulgarian noble, son of Ivan Shishman of the Tarnovo Tsardom had legitimate claim on the re-estabilished Bulgarian throne and was crowned Tsar on December 21st. He installed his seat in Sofia.

After the fall of Nicopolis, the Serbian Despotate and the Kingdom of Bosnia join the fight.

1445

March
Next year, the crusaders spend the first weeks of spring to secure mountain passes. In mid-March Serbian and Bosnian troops blockade Tirnovo, at the end of the month Plovdiv.

April
Hunyadi and Kastrioti march south. On April 2nd, 1445 the battle of Adrianopolis takes place.
The battle is fierce and bloody, but finally the crusaders prevailed. A plague epidemic broke out after the battle and decimated the local populace and the victorious army as well.

The news reached John VIII Palaiologos in Constantinople. He amassed a relatively small army and occupied Tekirdağ (Byzanthe).

May
After the plague took its toll, the Byzantine troops joined the crusaders and reconquered Gallipoli and a month later Philippi. Shortly after that Tirnovo and Plovdiv surrendered.

Most of the Ottoman holdings were now returned to Christendom. This was partly due to heir war with the Karaman Emirate.

 

[Snake Featherston]

At this point in time only the Ottomans have an actual professional army in Europe, Europe's armies were armed mobs. If the Ottomans have an addition to their early defeats it doesn't stop them, they lost battle around this period before without it slowing them down or even derailing them.

 

[Zeller]

Venetians betrayed the crusaders by letting the Ottoman army cross into Europe.
Serbians warned the Sultan beforehand and didn't let Kastrioti join Hunyadi.
But victory at Varna was still possible, hadn't the [-]foolish[/-] brave king charge on the Sultan's 10.000-strong guard with his 500 knights.

In the meantime, the Karamainds stromed Ankara, but had to stand down after a victorious Sultan returned OTL What if a defeated Sultan returns?

And the Ottoman forces were scattered around the place, so the occupation of Nicopolis seems realistic. After that, they manage to regroup, but Serbian and Bosnian armies join the effort, thus the bloody battle of Adrianopolis. The Byzantines also gather their last pieces of strenght and join the fight.

 

[Snake Featherston]

Venetians betrayed the crusaders by letting the Ottoman army cross into Europe.
Serbians warned the Sultan beforehand and didn't let Kastrioti join Hunyadi.
But victory at Varna was still possible, hadn't the [-]foolish[/-] brave king charge on the Sultan's 10.000-strong guard with his 500 knights.

In the meantime, the Karamainds stromed Ankara, but had to stand down after a victorious Sultan returned OTL What if a defeated Sultan returns?

And the Ottoman forces were scattered around the place, so the occupation of Nicopolis seems realistic. After that, they manage to regroup, but Serbian and Bosnian armies join the effort, thus the bloody battle of Adrianopolis. The Byzantines also gather their last pieces of strenght and join the fight.

The view that the Europeans lost instead of the Ottomans winning is one that I'm just a bit skeptical of, as I'm also skeptical that the Ottoman vassal Palaeologoi would at all join such a battle given that the ERE consists at this point of Constantinople. And I repeat: the Ottomans *did* have defeats against European armed mobs in this timeframe and their empire didn't fall apart at the seams, the view that one such defeat leads to it relies on a great deal of ignorance of Ottoman history.

 

[Avitus]

This is pretty similar to my TL (which is linked in my signature), except mine begins in about 1450, after Varna. In it, Mehmed II's grand Vizier, Candarli Halil Pasha, who OTL hated Mehmed II and his plans to attack Constantinople (and was eventually killed by Mehmed as a result), betrays Mehmed. He burns Mehmed's navy in the Bosporus during the siege of Constantinople, and then uses his vast personal wealth to pay the Venetians to blockade the strait so Mehmed can't come back to Aisia Minor. Candarli also supplies the Byzantines, allowing them to hold out and resist the siege (since if Constantinople falls Mehmed can use it to cross back into Asia and beat Candarli down). Mehmed gets frustrated, attempts to storm Constantinople prematurely, and loses a quarter of his forces without gaining the city.

After that the Bosporus becomes the dividing line between the realm of Candarli's puppet sultan Orhan II, and Mehmeds Empire in Europe. Two Crusades in the next decade, the Albanian Crusade and the Great Balkan Crusade, lead by John Hunyadi, his son Laszlo, Vlad Dracula, and Skanderbeg eventually crush the Ottomans in europe, dividing the territories between Byzantium, Albania, Genoa, Hungary, and Wallachia, and establishing a small crusader state in Asia minor based around Smyrna. Candarli dies, and his puppet Orhan becomes a legitimate power in his own right, eventually conquering Karaman to replace some of the lands lost in the west.

Here's the Balkans in 1459, immediately after the Great Balkan Crusade (but before the Ottoman Conquest of Karaman).

 

[Zeller]

"Armed mobs" defeating a professional army several times may cause us to come to a number of conclusions. The Ottomans being unstoppable is definitely not one of them.

Oh, and Avitus. I think an independent Bulgaria would be sensible, since they did estabilish one after 500 years of Ottoman occupation OTL.

 

[Avitus]

The Bulgarians did, but that was as a result of Bulgarian nationalism and foriegn interest if I'm not mistaken. Bulgarian nationalism is not a significant factor at this point, even if their culture does exist, as is evidenced by the fact that they didn't make serious attempts to break away or support the crusaders in this era. Foreign interest on the other hand is also nonexistant, as the second Bulgarian Empire is what comes to mind when people think of Bulgaria in this era, and the SBE was not well liked by its neighbors, and in any event would be Orthodox, which the Hungarians would not like. I would also note that the the de facto Capital of Wallachia-Bulgaria is Tarnovo, although it has not been officially named as such due to being a recent aquisition and all, so the Bulgarians don't see their conquerors as opressors, but liberators (rare, but in this case feasable if the new ruler doesn't sack the major towns or force convert them).

 

[cimon]

The view that the Europeans lost instead of the Ottomans winning is one that I'm just a bit skeptical of, as I'm also skeptical that the Ottoman vassal Palaeologoi would at all join such a battle given that the ERE consists at this point of Constantinople. And I repeat: the Ottomans *did* have defeats against European armed mobs in this timeframe and their empire didn't fall apart at the seams, the view that one such defeat leads to it relies on a great deal of ignorance of Ottoman history.

Wrong!the larger part of Peloponnese as well as many islands were under the Byzantines.

 

[cimon]

OK Zeller,awaiting your next update.

 

[Zeller]

I admit that crushing the Ottomans in just a few months might be a bit unrealistic, but that's just one way to provoke response from you guys

Doesn't Wallachia have a capital at this time? Why would they move it to Tarnovo?

 

[Avitus]

Doesn't Wallachia have a capital at this time? Why would they move it to Tarnovo?

Yes and no, as Vlad the impaler tended to favor Bucharest OTL, and held his court there, but in the sence of a modern national capital I would say no, not really. More importantly, a wallachia that absorbs Bulgaria will most likely be about 60-70% Bulgarian, and Tarnovo is a much more impressive city than Bucharest at the time, so by moving the capital they are both placating the Bulgarians and making their court mor prestiegious. Also, I said de facto capital, meaning that there hasn't been an official move of the capital, but the King is living there and ruling from there in a seemingly permanent way. The capital of Wallachia-Bulgaria becomes irrelevant in a hurry in my TL anyways, since Vlad the Impaler later gains co-emperorship of Byzantium through court intrigues that he isn't personally involved in, and sets up a more permanent shop in Constantinople.

To be honest it doesn't make sence unless you actually read the TL, since it would take too long to explain just how things have played out in the 15 years since my POD, just like spain in 1491 conquering the carribean doesn't make sence without explaining the discovery of the Americas. There are just too many critical fine details for me to go over it all without importing my whle TL.

 

[Cuāuhtemōc]

Wrong!the larger part of Peloponnese as well as many islands were under the Byzantines.

The Despots of the Morea were more or less independent from Constantinople in all but name and in OTL they didn't bother to do much when it came to the Byzantine Empire's last moments of existence.

 

[cimon]

The Despots of the Morea were more or less independent from Constantinople in all but name and in OTL they didn't bother to do much when it came to the Byzantine Empire's last moments of existence.

No,they were not! there were the lands of Constantine XI there,with military units and his brothers didn't trust each other much but above all,there was aTurkish army north of the Isthmus and the Paleologoi couldn't afford to sent
units north with ships for fear that the Turkish army would invade Peloponnese.

 

[Zeller]

And what if Hungary wants to make the rest of the Balkan their vassals? It would be easier to keep them in line if their size was smaller, so they would most likely promote a separate Bulgarian state.

 

[Avitus]

And what if Hungary wants to make the rest of the Balkan their vassals? It would be easier to keep them in line if their size was smaller, so they would most likely promote a separate Bulgarian state.

Firstly, even without the Ottoman Empire in the Balkans, the Hungarians aren't nearly powerful enough to just wake up one morning and say "Lets make the Balkans our bitch!" Not even close, even in the best of circumstances. Secondly, while Hungary contributes the lion's share of the soldiers in the Albanian Crusade (which essentially only liberates its namesake), the Great Balkan state sees them mostly sidelined by the death of their king, Ladisaius the Posthumus, and the civil war between the John Hunyadi and Ulrich of Celje that follows (and results in a Hunyadi victory). Laszlo Hunyadi does end up leading the final, largest crusading force that lands in Anatolia, but it is a western force with no real loyalty to Hungary, and once the crusade is over it disbands, leaving the Hungarians alone to defend the Kingdom of Smyrna. After that dynastic succession between Laszlo and Mathias Hunyadi over who will succeed John as King (his victory over count Celje results in him gaining the crown), so Hungary doesn't care too much about the Balkans ATM.

Also, John Hunyadi actually made Vlad Dracula the Prince of Wallachia as a counter to the Ottomans, and John and Vlad were allies during Vlad's first reign, so why would he want to replace an allied Wallachia-Bugaria with a pissed Wallachia and an independant Orthodox Bulgaria? Hungary is in no position to take direct control of Bulgaria unless they have allot of popular support, which they wouldn't get after Vlad's "Heroic Liberation from the Infidels" made him extremely popular there. It really makes no sence for the Hungarians to believe that they will be invading Wallachia or Bulgaria in the forseeable future, so keeping them strong is only beneficial to Hungarian interests at this point.

 

[Zeller]

Well, where would Hungary expand if not the Balkans? The HRE? I doubt that. Poland? They are in a really good relationship (usually they are). The Golden Horde? Never. The purpose of Matthias' western campaigns was to create an entity that can better match the might of the Ottoman Empire.

So that does leave the Balkans with its many nations and states, not exactly united. Making Serbia a vassal could be seen a punishment for their politics and behaviour in regard of the Ottomans. Wallachia is already a vassal.
So why not?

 

[paulojn]

What about a Hungarian expansion to Venetian possessions on a first phase?

 

[Zeller]

Definitely to be considered.

Could the Ottomans be more easily defeated during their interregnum from 1402-1413? This question is mainly addressed to Snake Featherston.