China wins the Battle of the Yalu

[bard32]

Inspired by an article in War Monthly. What if China had a halfway decent navy
in 1894? China's navy in 1894 used a cavalry tactic called a flying wing, which
wasn't very good as a naval tactic and the Chinese lost the battle of the Yalu
to the Japanese. That's IOTL. IATL, China wins the Battle Yalu. What would the
implications be for Imperial Russia ten years later?

 

[YLi]

A victory against the Japanese would have meant a much stronger China in the first place, and the changes required to make a much stronger China would cause an immense amount of butterflies to happen, which right now, I have no time to describe.

 

[bard32]

A victory against the Japanese would have meant a much stronger China in the first place, and the changes required to make a much stronger China would cause an immense amount of butterflies to happen, which right now, I have no time to describe.

Very true. Here are the ships of the combatants:
Chinese Fleet
Ting Yuen, Adm. Ting
Maj.Hendriksen
P.0. Nicholls
Capt. Lin
Chen Yuen
Ping Yuen
Chih Yuen
Tsi Yuen
Ching Yuen
Chang Vong
Vong Wei
KVing Ping
Japanese Fleet
Matsushima
Itsukushima
Chyoda
Fuso
Heiei
Yoshino
Tanachino
Nanimya
Amatsuhima
Amagi
Sankyo Maru
These were the ships that participated in the battle. The Japanese won.

 

[Hendryk]

What if China had a halfway decent navy in 1894?

China's navy was halfway decent in 1894. The problems were rather embezzlement by the court of funds earmarked for ammunition (which led to some ships firing duds rather than live shells), substandard training, poor maintenance, and as you've pointed out, a wrong tactical choice. Had those problems been addressed in the preceding months, China would have had a chance to win even against Japan's more modern ships.

The consequences are difficult to predict. The negative option would be that Dowager Empress Cixi claims credit for the victory (even though she bears responsibility for the embezzlement of Navy funds) and considers it proof that China need not conduct further structural reforms, thus stonewalling the reformers. This scenario may turn out to be a second-order counterfactual, in which the ATL mirrors OTL, as the Qing dynasty continues to decay until being deposed by a revolution some time in the early 20th century.

The positive option would be that the reformers find their hand strengthened, since their most prominent member, Li Hongzhang, was in charge of the Navy.

 

[bard32]

China's navy was halfway decent in 1894. The problems were rather embezzlement by the court of funds earmarked for ammunition (which led to some ships firing duds rather than live shells), substandard training, poor maintenance, and as you've pointed out, a wrong tactical choice. Had those problems been addressed in the preceding months, China would have had a chance to win even against Japan's more modern ships.

The consequences are difficult to predict. The negative option would be that Dowager Empress Cixi claims credit for the victory (even though she bears responsibility for the embezzlement of Navy funds) and considers it proof that China need not conduct further structural reforms, thus stonewalling the reformers. This scenario may turn out to be a second-order counterfactual, in which the ATL mirrors OTL, as the Qing dynasty continues to decay until being deposed by a revolution some time in the early 20th century.

The positive option would be that the reformers find their hand strengthened, since their most prominent member, Li Hongzhang, was in charge of the Navy.

The article said that the commander of the Chinese Navy was a former cavalry general. Why would the Dowager Empress put a former cavalry general in charge of the Chinese Navy?

 

[David S Poepoe]

There weren't that many naval officers in the Imperial Chinese Navy at the time. These officers were usually assisted by Western advisors or soldiers of fortune serving as they executive officers. I believe in this instance Philo N. McGiffin served as the executive officer on one of the Chinese warships. McGiffin was a graduate of the US Naval Academy but finding how promotions there served about 10 years with the Chinese.

 

[bard32]

There weren't that many naval officers in the Imperial Chinese Navy at the time. These officers were usually assisted by Western advisors or soldiers of fortune serving as they executive officers. I believe in this instance Philo N. McGiffin served as the executive officer on one of the Chinese warships. McGiffin was a graduate of the US Naval Academy but finding how promotions there served about 10 years with the Chinese.

Thanks. Of course, the IJN had foreign advisers as well so both sides were equally matched. The Japanese were just better.

 

[rad_vsovereign]

Thanks. Of course, the IJN had foreign advisers as well so both sides were equally matched. The Japanese were just better.

Yes, the Japanese took good care of their ships & training. No corruption there, at least not on the scale of China. Personally I don't think the living conditions of ordinary Chinese & Japanese sailors of the time to be greatly different.

 

[Joseph Solis in Australia]

I think it's impossible for China to win in Battle of the Yalu without modernizing China such as encouraging industrialization and modernization of the Army. If China had modernize its navy I think China would win IF China had led by a strong and not corrupt leader.

 

[Grey Wolf]

The battle was a complete slaughter so you COULD probably conjure a Chinese victory out of the OTL battle

One thing would be for the Chinese admiral not to stand on the flying bridge over the big gun on his flagship and get blown into unconsciousness

Tactics might then make a difference. I've read the details of the battle, how it more or less broke down into individual clashes between ships and there are possibilities there

Someone more intelligent than me would need to sort out the finer details

But in terms of consequences, it would reinforce mistaken Chinese sup

 

[Tizoc]

Before we got too far before ourselves, it must be answered, how big a Chinese victory would be? I personally don't see a crushing victory - after all, in OTL it wasn't for Japanese - the Chinese fleet was still a potent force after Yalu - it was just that the morale punched through bottom...