China wins the 1st Sino-Japanese War in 1895

[LordKalvert]

The Sino-Japanese War is one of the more important developments in the late 1800's. It resulted in the crushing defeat of China, the Triple Intervention and later the scramble for concessions and latter the Russo-Japanese War

But what happens if the Chinese win? Obviously, the rise of modern Japan and its militarism will be brought to a halt. I'm assuming China imposes terms on Japan like Japan imposes on China- loss of significant territory, a huge indemnity meant to crush the power of the defeated party So certainly, the rise of Japan is brought to a halt unless some power intervenes. But who would?

For Russia, the immediate effect is that there wouldn't be a railway concession in Manchuria and they would have to go the long way round the Amur. Doubt if they'd be grabbing Port Arthur or the Germans Shagntung anytime soon. Do they keep their focus on the Far East or do they stay involved in the Balkans?

Lots of possibilities on a lot of issues

 

[IndefatigableRN]

The Sino-Japanese War is one of the more important developments in the late 1800's. It resulted in the crushing defeat of China, the Triple Intervention and later the scramble for concessions and latter the Russo-Japanese War

But what happens if the Chinese win? Obviously, the rise of modern Japan and its militarism will be brought to a halt. I'm assuming China imposes terms on Japan like Japan imposes on China- loss of significant territory, a huge indemnity meant to crush the power of the defeated party So certainly, the rise of Japan is brought to a halt unless some power intervenes. But who would?

For Russia, the immediate effect is that there wouldn't be a railway concession in Manchuria and they would have to go the long way round the Amur. Doubt if they'd be grabbing Port Arthur or the Germans Shagntung anytime soon. Do they keep their focus on the Far East or do they stay involved in the Balkans?

Lots of possibilities on a lot of issues

Wait, how does China get to Japan to impose this peace treaty?

 

[Sharunaku]

Wait, how does China get to Japan to impose this peace treaty?

By ship? China had a fleet before it's sunk in this war.

 

[Asami]

Magically winning the Sino-Japanese War won't give the Qing much breathing space. Occupying Japan would probably be a death sentence for the Qing -- the Japanese were a formidable people, and trying to take territory from them would lead to a much more anti-Chinese feeling in the state.

The Qing Dynasty's wane and collapse was a thing that was going to happen. The Westerners were going to keep pushing for more concessions, all you did was really knock out the only Asian colonizer. Korea will eventually fall to Russia, same with Manchuria.

 

[LordKalvert]

Magically winning the Sino-Japanese War won't give the Qing much breathing space. Occupying Japan would probably be a death sentence for the Qing -- the Japanese were a formidable people, and trying to take territory from them would lead to a much more anti-Chinese feeling in the state.

The Qing Dynasty's wane and collapse was a thing that was going to happen. The Westerners were going to keep pushing for more concessions, all you did was really knock out the only Asian colonizer. Korea will eventually fall to Russia, same with Manchuria.

Not having to pay the indemnity to Japan and collecting one instead would vastly improve Chinese finances. The European powers would also not perceive her as weak and vulnerable as victory would mean that their military was much stronger than was the case OTL

How likely is Germany to start the scramble for concessions in that scenario?

 

[LordKalvert]

By ship? China had a fleet before it's sunk in this war.

Which was actually larger and stronger than Japan's. It is only through mismanagement that the war went so badly for China

 

[raharris1973]

Wouldn't the Liuchiu islands be the most logical territorial concessions demanded by China, and possibly tsushima island to provide a buffer for Korea. After winning naval battles and land battles in Korea, what kind of land campaign do you envision the Chinese doing on Japanese territory?

 

[TFSmith121]

What is your progression of events for a Chinese victory?

The Sino-Japanese War is one of the more important developments in the late 1800's. It resulted in the crushing defeat of China, the Triple Intervention and later the scramble for concessions and latter the Russo-Japanese War

But what happens if the Chinese win? Obviously, the rise of modern Japan and its militarism will be brought to a halt. I'm assuming China imposes terms on Japan like Japan imposes on China- loss of significant territory, a huge indemnity meant to crush the power of the defeated party So certainly, the rise of Japan is brought to a halt unless some power intervenes. But who would?

Certainly all sort of interesting ripples if there is one, but acheiving one in the first place, and how it is achieved - plus, is it just a stalemate ashore or an actual defeat? Same at sea, of course. Given the reality of how the Japanese and Chinese armed forces performed in the conflict relative to each other, how the Chinese manage a "win" and too what level seems pretty key to the impact afterward.

Best,

 

[LordKalvert]

Wouldn't the Liuchiu islands be the most logical territorial concessions demanded by China, and possibly tsushima island to provide a buffer for Korea. After winning naval battles and land battles in Korea, what kind of land campaign do you envision the Chinese doing on Japanese territory?

Some of the outlying islands for sure. The old kingdom of Okinawa for example wouldn't be too hard to detach from Japan.

After winning the Naval battles, the Japanese are done in Korea and would be hard pressed to get their army back out. Assume then that China takes advantage of its control off the seas and starts landings on the various home Islands. Avoids the Japanese army and pillages the countryside until the Japanese see reason

 

[LordKalvert]

Certainly all sort of interesting ripples if there is one, but acheiving one in the first place, and how it is achieved - plus, is it just a stalemate ashore or an actual defeat? Same at sea, of course. Given the reality of how the Japanese and Chinese armed forces performed in the conflict relative to each other, how the Chinese manage a "win" and too what level seems pretty key to the impact afterward.

Best,

Fair enough The Chinese learn from the French war and unite their fleets. The most inept commanders are dismissed and some order is restored to the military. They buy proper ammunition for their fleet, take target practice and become reasonably competent in the art of war.

This results in a crushing Chinese victory at the Battle of the Yalu with the entire Japanese fleet destroyed. Having gained control over the seas, the Chinese start to land raiding parties on the Japanese coast and rampage the countryside burning and pillaging as the Chinese are wont to do

The Japanese sue for peace and get terms roughly equal to what they imposed on China-

The Kingdom of Okinawa is restored as a Chinese vassal state, Korea remains under Chinese protection and the Japanese are forced to pay an indemnity of 300,000,000 Yen

 

[Richard V]

This butterflies away the Boxer Uprising. Qing dynasty gets a shot in the arm, but probably still gets overthrown a generation later than OTL.

I doubt China would demand indemnity, that's a part of European Imperialism copied by the Japanese. The big change will be the lack of change. The ancient balance of power in East Asia remains in place. Hopefully the pro-China faction in Japan gets a boost and pushes towards a mutual modernization pact, maybe cooperation against Russia.

 

[Vanity 6]

Magically winning the Sino-Japanese War won't give the Qing much breathing space. Occupying Japan would probably be a death sentence for the Qing -- the Japanese were a formidable people, and trying to take territory from them would lead to a much more anti-Chinese feeling in the state.

The Qing Dynasty's wane and collapse was a thing that was going to happen. The Westerners were going to keep pushing for more concessions, all you did was really knock out the only Asian colonizer. Korea will eventually fall to Russia, same with Manchuria.

THIS! Russia expands unhindered thru Manchuria and Korea until, if or when, it gets into trouble with Britain.

Perhaps the real upshot is no Triple Entente as London still sees Russia as more of an expansionist threat than Germany.

 

[Sharunaku]

THIS! Russia expands unhindered thru Manchuria and Korea until, if or when, it gets into trouble with Britain.

Perhaps the real upshot is no Triple Entente as London still sees Russia as more of an expansionist threat than Germany.

Not really. Remember what happened IOTL when Russia poked Japan a decade after this war? The China ITTL would be even stronger than that.

And good luck stirring up nationalism if the government speaks your language, employ your people, creates prosperity and defeat foreigners seeking to invade the country. Chinese already have nationalism as seen in the 14th century, but no one bats an eye about they are ruled by foreigners in the 18th century when they are rich and powerful. Unless Qing bankrupted everyone during the war, patriotism will supress nationalism.

There's no reason to believe Qing would try to occupy Japan. Afterall, it's regarded as worthless pirate den until a few decades ago and has never been part of the Mandate of Heaven. The focus would be to prevent Japan from "pirating" again (sunk ships and crater shipyards) and demand a tribute (or war reparation, whatever its name) for the trouble.

 

[Tripledot]

What would happen to Korea? Would remain a puppet of China, or would it get annexed to either one of them, or perhaps split in half?

 

[TFSmith121]

Except even a more effective Chinese Navy is no guarantee

Fair enough The Chinese learn from the French war and unite their fleets. The most inept commanders are dismissed and some order is restored to the military. They buy proper ammunition for their fleet, take target practice and become reasonably competent in the art of war.

This results in a crushing Chinese victory at the Battle of the Yalu with the entire Japanese fleet destroyed. Having gained control over the seas, the Chinese start to land raiding parties on the Japanese coast and rampage the countryside burning and pillaging as the Chinese are wont to do

The Japanese sue for peace and get terms roughly equal to what they imposed on China-

The Kingdom of Okinawa is restored as a Chinese vassal state, Korea remains under Chinese protection and the Japanese are forced to pay an indemnity of 300,000,000 Yen

Except even an effective Chinese Navy is no guarantee of victory; the IJN may suffer heavier losses, but they still outnumber the Chinese fleet and can procure from overseas and at home; the Chinese can not - you need to both make the Chinese more effective and the Japanese less so, which requires changes going back years, if not decades.
Best,

 

[Richard V]

Except even an effective Chinese Navy is no guarantee of victory; the IJN may suffer heavier losses, but they still outnumber the Chinese fleet and can procure from overseas and at home; the Chinese can not - you need to both make the Chinese more effective and the Japanese less so, which requires changes going back years, if not decades.
Best,

It's a common misconception that Meiji Japan was way more modern than late Qing. Japanese industry never surprassed China until after the huge silver indeminties paid to them for the First Sino-Japanese war. The Chinese fleet was bigger than that of Japan at this time, and the latest German built ironclads were more powerful than those in Japanese service. China had far more money to buy foreign weapons and it's domestic industries were just as advanced while outproducing Japan, this includes steam ship contruction.

The real problem is the Chinese naval leadership was unprofessional and the national leadership was corrupt and ossified. To give you an example there were Chinese and Japanese officer cadets at British academies, and while the Japanese cadets would go play rugby with the British (a game also played at Japanese officer schools), the Chinese cadets would refuse physical competition. Many still kept their fingernails long in the tradition of gentlemen who disdained physical labor. This is a similar observation Americans still make of Arab officers on training programs today.

When a modern Chinese warship made portcall in Japan one Japanese officer was shocked to see laundry draping over the guns to dry. He remarked the Chinese fleet resembled a beautiful sword that was actually as dull as a kitchen knife upon close inspection.

 

[Berkeley2017]

Not really. Remember what happened IOTL when Russia poked Japan a decade after this war? The China ITTL would be even stronger than that.

You mean their ground forces? The Bannermen that defended Manchuria during the Boxer Rebellion were obliterated in the face of Russian advances. Does the Qing have ground forces that could possibly be a match against the Russians?

 

[LordKalvert]

Except even an effective Chinese Navy is no guarantee of victory; the IJN may suffer heavier losses, but they still outnumber the Chinese fleet and can procure from overseas and at home; the Chinese can not - you need to both make the Chinese more effective and the Japanese less so, which requires changes going back years, if not decades.
Best,

1) No guarantee but they can. The thread assumes that they do

2) the IJN does NOT outnumber the Chinese, the reverse is the case. The Chinese are just really bad, have horrid ammunition and a host of other problems. They can be corrected and it wouldn't take more than a couple of years at most. A couple of months under energetic leadership during the buildup to the war would do wonders

3) The Japanese can never blockade China. They just don't have anywhere near the force to do that- nor are the powers likely to put up with it

 

[Sharunaku]

You mean their ground forces? The Bannermen that defended Manchuria during the Boxer Rebellion were obliterated in the face of Russian advances. Does the Qing have ground forces that could possibly be a match against the Russians?

If the modernization ITTL is sufficient to beat Japan in 1895, it'd be stronger than OTL Japanese military, which beaten the Russian one.

Japan > Russia : OTL observation, not changed
China > Japan : TTL assumption, but opposite IOTL

By transitivity, China >> Russia.

 

[LordKalvert]

THIS! Russia expands unhindered thru Manchuria and Korea until, if or when, it gets into trouble with Britain.

Perhaps the real upshot is no Triple Entente as London still sees Russia as more of an expansionist threat than Germany.

Very doubtful, the effects on Russia would be the most interesting. The Russians only get into Manchuria as a reward for their "help"

A China that collects a huge indemnity rather than pay it is going to be much stronger and the chance of getting an ally against Russia increases

If China was a competent military power, would Germany go for the seizure of Shandung?

Would there be aBoxer Rebellion?

A Russo Japanese War? Or would Russia and Japan ally together against China?

The question is legitimate and it has huge ramifications for the history of the world. A Chinese victory can change a huge amount of things