China WI: Xiong Xianghui gets caught?

[Vinization]

Xiong Xianghui was a CCP spy who worked as a secretary to Hu Zongnan, one of the Nationalists' top generals, sending all sorts of important information regarding KMT moves to the Communist leadership. His biggest contribution to the Communist victory in the Chinese Civil War happened in early 1947, when he warned the CCP higher ups about an imminent Nationalist offensive against Yan'an, the party's headquarters since the Long March. Thanks to his warning, the Communist leadership evacuated Yan'an before Hu Zongnan's troops arrived, the city's defenders offering only token resistance as the Nationalists scored an insignificant victory.

What if Xiong was caught (and presumably executed) before he could warn Mao & co about KMT advance on Yan'an, and so they're caught by surprise? Is there a chance the CCP could end up decapitated? Assuming most of its leadership is either dead or in prison, how does this affect future developments in the Chinese Civil War? From what I found in wikipedia this was before the Nationalist position in Manchuria collapsed, could that campaign end differently?

 

[raharris1973]

Xiong Xianghui was a CCP spy who worked as a secretary to Hu Zongnan, one of the Nationalists' top generals, sending all sorts of important information regarding KMT moves to the Communist leadership. His biggest contribution to the Communist victory in the Chinese Civil War happened in early 1947, when he warned the CCP higher ups about an imminent Nationalist offensive against Yan'an, the party's headquarters since the Long March. Thanks to his warning, the Communist leadership evacuated Yan'an before Hu Zongnan's troops arrived, the city's defenders offering only token resistance as the Nationalists scored an insignificant victory.

What if Xiong was caught (and presumably executed) before he could warn Mao & co about KMT advance on Yan'an, and so they're caught by surprise? Is there a chance the CCP could end up decapitated? Assuming most of its leadership is either dead or in prison, how does this affect future developments in the Chinese Civil War? From what I found in wikipedia this was before the Nationalist position in Manchuria collapsed, could that campaign end differently?

This is an interesting what if. It would neat to see where it would lead things. I think the leadership cadre at Yanan at this point in March 1947, at a minimum, included Mao and Zhou Enlai, and on the military side Zhu De. Possibly Peng Dehuai on the military side as well. But some military and political leaders of prominence were distributed, so Liu Bocheng and Deng Xiaoping were to the east in the Yellow River Valley, getting poised to pounce southward. Lin Biao was commanding the CCP armies in the Northeast. So losing CCP central leadership in Yanan would be a blow to the Party and morale, but there would still be plenty of forces and bases for it in north and northeast China, and the "clean-up" task of the Chinese Nationalists would remain enormous, so leadership capture/decapitation is no guarantee of Nationalist victory.

 

[Vinization]

This is an interesting what if. It would neat to see where it would lead things. I think the leadership cadre at Yanan at this point in March 1947, at a minimum, included Mao and Zhou Enlai, and on the military side Zhu De. Possibly Peng Dehuai on the military side as well. But some military and political leaders of prominence were distributed, so Liu Bocheng and Deng Xiaoping were to the east in the Yellow River Valley, getting poised to pounce southward. Lin Biao was commanding the CCP armies in the Northeast. So losing CCP central leadership in Yanan would be a blow to the Party and morale, but there would still be plenty of forces and bases for it in north and northeast China, and the "clean-up" task of the Chinese Nationalists would remain enormous, so leadership capture/decapitation is no guarantee of Nationalist victory.

Which of the survivors (Deng and Lin Biao) would be more likely to take the helm of the CCP? My money's on Lin, but I don't know enough about the matter to discuss it in depth.

As for the KMT troops in the northwest sector, would they be directed to other fronts once Mao is captured, since AFAIK there weren't any other targets of interest there other than Yan'an?