No doubt this has been posted before, but still post what you think would happen if the Nationalists somehow won the Chinese Civil War. I think China grows even faster then in OTL, and the UN is able to achieve a solid victory in Korea. The Cold War probably ends earlier as well. What are you opinions and thoughts?
China goes Nationalist
- Thread starter Evil Opus
- Start date
Max Sinister
Banned
But the new government would be pretty corrupt and would have to deal with unequal distribution of wealth and occasional famines.
Max Sinister
Banned
I just wanted to point out that under a Guomindang government not everything in China would be fine.
China would grow a lot slower then OTL.
Sure it wasn't very nice particularly if you had money but Mao definatly did get results and China made huge progress.
It depends on what happens once victory is there's really- does a democracy get established? do they stick with a west friendly totalitarian regime? how does the USSR take it? (I doubt they would just let communism in China die.,..)
Sure it wasn't very nice particularly if you had money but Mao definatly did get results and China made huge progress.
It depends on what happens once victory is there's really- does a democracy get established? do they stick with a west friendly totalitarian regime? how does the USSR take it? (I doubt they would just let communism in China die.,..)
My guess would be that a Nationalist China stays fairly totalitarian, though Chiang probably sets up the trappings of democracy to look good. Once Chiang gets too old or dies the country probably starts to gradually move towards an actual democracy.
As for the USSR, I doubt they would be happy about Chinese communism being badly beaten, but short of all-out war there is only so much Stalin can do. Maybe we end up with some Taiwan-esque little splinter of China right on the Soviet border (Sinkiang could work) that is run by the Communists and claims to be the true Chinese government.
As for the USSR, I doubt they would be happy about Chinese communism being badly beaten, but short of all-out war there is only so much Stalin can do. Maybe we end up with some Taiwan-esque little splinter of China right on the Soviet border (Sinkiang could work) that is run by the Communists and claims to be the true Chinese government.
Hendryk
Banned
I quite disagree. Mao's rule was an unmitigated disaster for China. His only real achievement was making the Chinese feel better about themselves by giving them the impression they were a major power once more. Beyond that he caused terrible damage from which the country still hasn't fully recovered.Leej said:
"Totalitarian" is too strong a word, "dictatorial" more accurately describes Chiang's regime. As to how it would evolve, the post-1949 history of Taiwan gives us a pretty good indication: a few decades of authoritarian rule, followed by a gradual relaxation until eventually real democracy is achieved. Although given China's size it's possible that more top-down elements would survive.Chengar Qordath said:
Well if China goes Nationalist problems will arise. But let us not forget the almost assured assistance from America. Wars may take a different course, N. Korea is outright gone without Chinese Communists to assist it. The same can be said for N. Vietnam. Cambodia may never have to deal with Pol Pot, and Tibet may be free.
I think the world may be a little better off with such a country, no matter how corrupt.
I think the world may be a little better off with such a country, no matter how corrupt.
The Sandman
Banned
An important question here is whether total Nationalist victory occurs before or after the Sino-Japanese War. I suspect that if it occurs afterwards, the Nationalists may very well replace Tibet and Xinjiang with Communist North Korea and North Vietnam as the targets du jour; those areas were traditionally in the Chinese sphere of influence, and I doubt Chiang would like the idea of potential havens for ChiCom remnants surviving on his borders. Obviously, he can't do anything about the USSR, but the other bits would be more his speed.
Also, how might an independent Tibet and Xinjiang develop? Would the Soviets simply add Xinjiang to their Central Asian holdings?
Also, how might an independent Tibet and Xinjiang develop? Would the Soviets simply add Xinjiang to their Central Asian holdings?
Aracnid said:
I can´t see why the US should force Nat. China to leave Tibet alone. What´s in it for them? Plus, if China decides to do something in their sphere of influence there´s only so much to do about it.
If communists start popping up in Tibet, US would endorse National invasion.
The Sandman
Banned
I suppose another question here would be whether or not the Nationalists have the same sort of border clashes with the USSR that the Communists did. Given that they no longer have even vaguely similar ideological underpinnings to their regimes, those could get much worse than in OTL.
Max Sinister
Banned
I guess that all the states which became Communist IOTL still would have more or less strong Communist underground movements.
Leej said:
The Great Leap Backwards! Difficult to say how many millions died in that. Followed by the Cultural Revolution. Decapitating a good proportion of the educated population for the best part of a generation. China would also have avoided the huge losses they suffered in the Korean war. A Nationalist government would have been very corrupt but would also have had access to western funds and resources. Western influence would have provided a moderating factor in excesses in the Chinese government. [Not always profitable in the long run for the population perhaps. The western dissatisfaction with the Shan's regime in Iran helped enable a much bloodier and more repressive replacement for instance.]
Steve
The Sandman said:
That would be a nice bit of irony, but I don't think it is too likely. Communist Taiwan would lack the naval assistance that the US offered to Nationalist Taiwan, at the least the US would happily stand aside as Chiang took Taiwan, and there's a fair chance he would get at least indirect help in taking the island.