Charles I is truly Blessed-Successful Sixtus affäre

[raharris1973]

I am not convinced that the Austro-Hungarians need to offer territorial concession. Serbia and Romania are under Central Powers occupation, Russia is in no position to be making territorial demands of A-H in 1917 and Italy isn't doing particularly well on their front either. Its just as plausible that British and French decide to throw the Balkans and Italy under the bus and accept a status quo ante bellum peace with the Habsburgs to turn their full attention to Germany, Bulgaria, and the Ottomans.

Why didn't it happen then? Sixtus was quite explicit to his French interlocutors about them getting Alsace-Lorraine back. France was offensively inert for that fighting season after the Neville debacle, watching the British do all the big offensives and being murderous but not getting too far, and the Russians and Italians and Salonika/Macedonia not doing great. One would think Clemenceau wouldn't have much reason to hold out for a greatly improved deal over what the Austrians were offering, considering the Americans were looking slow to arrive and U-Boat losses day to day were high, What was he waiting for?

Yet he threw the Sixtus offer back in Austria-Hungary's face and used it for cheap propaganda points and to stir up intra-CP bad feeling. So he must have had some confidence that said everything should work out fine, just in time with no compromises. What would it take to change western leaders evaluations?

 

[Bones101]

@Bones101 - The Germans will have a hard time of it and do not have a lot of flexibility, but I do have questions about this:


The big questions are the morale, willingness, and ability of Austro-Hungarian forces to hold together as coherent units during a surrender process ordered by the Emperor, that will have to involve territorial concessions that many of the nationalities in the force will intensely hate.

Sitting around actually starts to sound more attractive than the alternative of exchanging fire with Germans trying to move through from whatever direction if you've come to the depressing decision you've lost the war and you're accepting peace. For Germans and Magyars in the force, accepting it is not really peace, but also changing sides to risk their lives in fire fights with the Germans is a hard sell. A lot of standing around, sitting around, and desertions and heading home, possibly while trying to hold on to weapons, would probably take place, in an ordered seperate peace with sacrifices scenario.

There would be German forces in several locations touching Austria-Hungary, some in Galicia, some in occupied Romania, some hosted by Bulgaria, some in occupied Serbia. They'd face serious vulnerabilities, being outnumbered by defecting Austro-Hungarians and dependent on Austrian transportation lines, but there could be significant offsetting from their command having a single coherent purpose and intent to preserve themselves, support each other and unite with other German forces, and they were better tactically, while the Austro-Hungarian units and commanders would be or more varied and depressed morale and differing goals.

Serbia was mostly occupied by Austrian forces so whatever German force is there could definitely be dealt with. But you make a good point on the morale of the soldiers. The Czechs, and there were at about a million of them in the army would definitely be willing to fight as they would be defending Bohemia. There would definitely be issues in the army with the side switch, the land loss doesn't have to be made public immediately to preserve morale, but I think it's unreasonable to assume AH can't put together a fighting force in 1917 to defend its core territories. The breakdown in loyalty wasn't really a thing until mid 1918, in early 1917 most forces are still loyal and while I'm sure there would be deserters and other problems, I think Austria can definitely muster up a force to defend Bohemia and the Austrian archduchy. Galicia was also mostly manned by Austrian soldiers so whatever hostile German units there were would be outnumbered. And again, Germany is seriously outstretched so they likely don't even have the ability to attempt an invasion either way.

 

[raharris1973]

Serbia was mostly occupied by Austrian forces so whatever German force is there could definitely be dealt with. But you make a good point on the morale of the soldiers. The Czechs, and there were at about a million of them in the army would definitely be willing to fight as they would be defending Bohemia. There would definitely be issues in the army with the side switch, the land loss doesn't have to be made public immediately to preserve morale, but I think it's unreasonable to assume AH can't put together a fighting force in 1917 to defend its core territories. The breakdown in loyalty wasn't really a thing until mid 1918, in early 1917 most forces are still loyal and while I'm sure there would be deserters and other problems, I think Austria can definitely muster up a force to defend Bohemia and the Austrian archduchy. Galicia was also mostly manned by Austrian soldiers so whatever hostile German units there were would be outnumbered. And again, Germany is seriously outstretched so they likely don't even have the ability to attempt an invasion either way.

I've pretty much conceded the general point in bold.

And moved on to discuss Austro-Hungarian terms, and consequences for the other CPs. (this was in post 18, 19 or 20)

And to ask the question, "Why did the French just blow this offer off, instead of exploring it further?" (post #21)

But on this point:

the land loss doesn't have to be made public immediately to preserve morale

The Italians are likely to insist on occupying the ceded land, or at a minimum, having the Austro-Hungarians withdraw their troops from it, within a matter of days of any armistice, so they are in a good position to seize it if the Austrians renege. That was always the issue with Austro-Italian negotiations. Each of them would be willing to offer a hypothetical future concession, but insist on getting delivery of the other's concession first, so that they could cheat on their side of the deal.

 

[Lalli]

I am not convinced that the Austro-Hungarians need to offer territorial concession. Serbia and Romania are under Central Powers occupation, Russia is in no position to be making territorial demands of A-H in 1917 and Italy isn't doing particularly well on their front either. Its just as plausible that British and French decide to throw the Balkans and Italy under the bus and accept a status quo ante bellum peace with the Habsburgs to turn their full attention to Germany, Bulgaria, and the Ottomans.

It is pretty easy to push Serbia and Romania under a bus and disregard Russia but not sure if Italy can be ignored and betrayed that badly at this point. Italy is not going to be very happy and demands something back for its losses unless Brits and French can pressure Italy to agree.

 

[Aichi72]

It is pretty easy to push Serbia and Romania under a bus and disregard Russia but not sure if Italy can be ignored and betrayed that badly at this point. Italy is not going to be very happy and demands something back for its losses unless Brits and French can pressure Italy to agree.

Are there any colonial concession that could be made to Italy in exchange for forgoing territory in Europe?

 

[Lalli]

Are there any colonial concession that could be made to Italy in exchange for forgoing territory in Europe?

Not really sure. Only Germany had colonies. Pacific/Asian colonies were going to be divided between China, Japan and British dominios. Almost all German colonies in Africa were lost expect East Africa. Not really sure about Togoland and Kamerun but South-West Africa was going to end for South Africa and Brits wanted German East Africa.

And Italy had already decades old claims over some Austro-Hungarian lands.

 

[lukedalton]

Are there any colonial concession that could be made to Italy in exchange for forgoing territory in Europe?

Any concession to Italy will come out from France and UK gain and they will be not very happy to give up anything and better remember that till Caporetto (and the 11th battle of the Isonzo almost breack the K.u.K) Italy was the only Entente power that occupied enemy territory...so i know that seem absolutely beyond absurdity but if Charles want his initiative working he must give some concession to Italy even because while A-H will get out of the war the same will happen to Italy as frankly nobody in the entire nation will be very keen to die to just make the Anglo-French happy after being sold that way