Chances of Survival for Red Austria in 1938

[Dr.Kafka]

Assuming a SDAPÖ and KPÖ victory in the Austrian Civil War, what are the chances of Austria surviving the 1930s?

Just in case anyone needs some background on how the socialists could have won the civil war, I'll discuss that here briefly.

In OTL the SDAPÖ had several things going against it. First, the party leadership during the early 1930s had a fairly passive doctrine that lost it support amongst the workers and youth of Austria. Many of these former supporters joined the Fatherland Front, which was decidedly more revolutionary in nature. Furthermore, the SDAPÖ leadership (excluding Bernaschek, as I recall) decreased their support of the Schutzbund and the socialist paramilitaries group, which made them totally unprepared for the opening moves of the conflict. On top of all of this, the start of the conflict took the central party leadership completely by surprise, and several members were arrested even before the fighting began in earnest.

If the OTL party leadership was replaced by Bernaschek and other members of the revolutionary wing, much of this could be avoided, and the SDAPÖ and the Schutzbund would be significantly stronger in the event of conflict.

Anyway, in OTL the Austrofascist forces won out and Austria was annexed in 1938. If the socialists won, I think peaceful annexation is completely off the table. Would this Second Austrian Republic be able to survive confrontation with the Nazi state (and probably Fascist Italy), or would they be too politically isolated to receive any outside support?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Without the Austro-Fascists Italy is not pro-Austria, so when Germany makes it first play for Austria in 1934 its likely that Hitler might be able to topple 'Red Austria'.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_Putsch
Austria would potentially become a Nazi state separate from Germany, as at this point France and Italy wouldn't let the two merge, but they would have a de facto merger due to major cooperation. By 1936 or so after the Rheinland occupation goes well and Mussolini is more friendly with Hitler, then it can go through without much worry. Ironically this could well strengthen the Nazis by having access to Austria much sooner.

 

[vultan]

If Austria becomes a communist state, I imagine Britain and France would be supportive of Germany annexing it. Of course, what do the Soviets do?

 

[aktarian]

I would suspect red Austria would face foreign intervention sooner rather than later. Italy and Hungary?

 

[kung Zog]

In fact a Red Austria (that is social democrat with communist support) might survive longer than "normal" Austria as the European support might be slightly larger. France will be very friendly with Austria thanks to the Popular Front. That is if the Social Democrats survive the Nazi Putsch.

 

[Dr.Kafka]

Without the Austro-Fascists Italy is not pro-Austria, so when Germany makes it first play for Austria in 1934 its likely that Hitler might be able to topple 'Red Austria'.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_Putsch
Austria would potentially become a Nazi state separate from Germany, as at this point France and Italy wouldn't let the two merge, but they would have a de facto merger due to major cooperation. By 1936 or so after the Rheinland occupation goes well and Mussolini is more friendly with Hitler, then it can go through without much worry. Ironically this could well strengthen the Nazis by having access to Austria much sooner.

I think the more radical SDAPÖ required for their victory in the civil war would keep a lot of the supporters that went over to the Austrian Nazi Party and the Fatherland Front, so I think the July Putsch would still fail. I think any Nazi government in Austria would have to be established by direct intervention in the country. If the Germans did successfully intervene, I can see things going following what you suggested; especially as Austrian annexation to Germany was a goal of just about every party except the Austrofascists.

If Austria becomes a communist state, I imagine Britain and France would be supportive of Germany annexing it. Of course, what do the Soviets do?

That was my concern originally. As much as I would like to see a socialist Austria, I figured that Great Britain would definitely support intervention, and France might be even willing to go along with it. In my mind, that left Czechoslovakia and the Soviets as supporters of Austria against the fascists. The Soviets support them for the obvious reasons, but I figured that both Masaryk and Beneš would support the Austrians, if only as a means to keep Germany from encircling the country.

It's easy to figure out how Czechoslovakia would get support to the Austrians, but how would the Soviets be able to lend their support to a landlocked Austria?

In fact a Red Austria (that is social democrat with communist support) might survive longer than "normal" Austria as the European support might be slightly larger. France will be very friendly with Austria thanks to the Popular Front. That is if the Social Democrats survive the Nazi Putsch.

I guess my mind totally blanked on using the Spanish Civil War as a means to gauge what sort of support the Austrians would receive. While the SDAPÖ ITTL would be allied with the KPÖ (that was one of the suggestions of the revolutionary wing of the party), the SDAPÖ was definitely not Moscow's stooge by any means, and Léon Blum would probably be just as sympathetic to them as he was to the Republican cause in Spain.

Would French support be significant enough to prevent direct intervention in Austria, or would they decline to support them directly for the same reasons they didn't directly support the Spanish Republicans?

On a related note, if events in Spain proceed as OTL and the Spanish Civil War occurs at roughly the same time as the fascist intervention in Austria that I proposed, the course of the Spanish Civil War would probably see some significant changes.

 

[Blackfox5]

It is highly unlikely an outright "red" Austria would survive. Sometime in the 1930s, a combination of Italian support for right wing Austrians and a bleed over of Freikorps volunteers from Bavaria into Austria is likely to overthrow the red government. If Austrian Nazis are one of the forces that compel that, they'll likely seize control and invite Hitler in at some point. If not, Hitler eventually subjects the country to the same pressues that compelled Austria to join IOTL.

If the country is simply socialist instead, and the socialists dump the Communists, it becomes more interesting. I believe the Socialists were the main force in Austria of union with Germany, but obviously the Nazi dictatorship would prevent that. It was the rural conservatives that wanted to remain a separate country. Before 1938, Hitler may be more moderate in his ambitions and be willing to accept something like a customs union or other association. As Hitler's control of Germany increases and rearmament builds, he'll still likely pursue the same actions against socialist Austria as he did against fascist Austria. At that point, it really depends how much defiance the Austrian chancellors give after various riots and assassinations. There is either a Munich style agreement that sells out Austria, or Austria gives up. If there is a Munich style agreement, it might make the Allies stand stronger for Czechoslovakia when Hitler insists on the suedetenland. If so, World War II begins a year earlier.

 

[Dr.Kafka]

It is highly unlikely an outright "red" Austria would survive.

I suppose I should have phrased me my question a little differently. If the socialists were victorious in the Austrian Civil War, they probably would have allied with the communists. However, the communists had very little political influence in the years leading up to the Austrian Civil War, and probably would continue to have little influence ITTL after the war is over.

At that point, it really depends how much defiance the Austrian chancellors give after various riots and assassinations. There is either a Munich style agreement that sells out Austria, or Austria gives up. If there is a Munich style agreement, it might make the Allies stand stronger for Czechoslovakia when Hitler insists on the suedetenland. If so, World War II begins a year earlier.

That's one of my concerns with a socialist takeover of Austria. Karl Renner was openly supportive of the Anschluss (claiming that he would be one of the first to vote yes on the referendum) and believed that Nazism was a passing fad, while Richard Bernaschek would leave Austria after the civil war only to go to Nazi Germany, because he believed that the Nazis were the lesser of two evils when compared to the Austrofascists. Bernaschek began distancing himself from the Nazis shortly after that when he realized that the Nazis were not fulfilling his hopes of working with the socialists, and Karl Renner withdrew from politics for the duration of the Nazi occupation after witnessing the reality of the situation. This, in my mind, gives some support to the notion that the socialists would put up some fight against any Nazi takeover after taking power.

If there is Austrian resistance to an agreement, I'm not sure something similar to the Munich Agreement would come about, especially if Blum is in power at the time, rather than Daladier. In OTL, Daladier was fairly resistant to the Munich Agreement, and Blum would only be less likely to sign over Austria to the Germans. I'm not sure Daladier and the Radicals would support intervention in any Austro-German conflict, but I don't see them supporting a proposed Anschluss if Blum is against it.

 

[KACKO]

It's easy to figure out how Czechoslovakia would get support to the Austrians, but how would the Soviets be able to lend their support to a landlocked Austria?

Only possible way is as a supply for Czechoslovakia through Romania. Romanians may keep the eye closed similar way they promised in Fall 1938.

On other side what support you have on mind? Food and weapons? If Socialist Austria or their sponsor is willing to pay basically everything can be supplied by Czechoslovakia. It may even speed up Czechoslovak air plane especially fighter development and production so Avia B-35/135 can be seen sooner and be wide spread in 1938.

Soviet and German communists Interbrigadists may use Czechoslovakia as a bridge to Austria.
Everything depends on the guts of Prague government.

 

[Johnny Red]

The problem with French support is the same as with supporting Spain, and in fact a great deal more difficult. Even if a social democrat Austria is able to survive, there is little the French can do (lack of land/sea access, and I don't see a Berlin Airlift scenario in the 30s for an entire country ), and even less that they probably have the political will or ability to do. Don't forget that France bordered Spain, and still gave no help (only allowing escapees to slip across the border.) Plus, supporting Austria is going to bring the French into a more direct conflict with the Germans in a way that Spain never could. Not that the French are opposed to keeping Germany down, but the Radicaux under Daladier will need major British support if they are even going to consider allowing the Popular Front government to give aid to Austria (if such a government still forms.) Britain of course will be rather indifferent, especially since many didn't see Germany as a real threat until their occupation of Czechoslovakia, months after Munich.

The Soviets on the other hand would be more willing to support Austria, but analogues to Spain persist. Stalin is going to be looking to support the communist forces, to the detriment of all other groups (anarchists, socialists, liberals, fascists, etc.), and will probably be as helpful to the Austrians as they were to the Spanish (if even that, as they cant exactly sail to Austria, and everyone in E. Europe except maybe Czechoslovakia is going to be shit scared of letting Soviet anything through their countries, and Czechoslovakia is in the same border situation as Austria.)

The only way I can see a Red Austria (a communist Austria is impossible, I'm afraid, without some major changes to the post-war revolutions and the rise of several major communist GPs) is in a timeline with a surviving Weimar Germany, and one where Italian imperialism is somehow checked. Also (maybe) possible in a no-Soviet timeline where the entire world is not more or less in the anti-Bolshevik camp.

 

[Dr.Kafka]

The problem with French support is the same as with supporting Spain, and in fact a great deal more difficult. Even if a social democrat Austria is able to survive, there is little the French can do (lack of land/sea access, and I don't see a Berlin Airlift scenario in the 30s for an entire country ), and even less that they probably have the political will or ability to do. Don't forget that France bordered Spain, and still gave no help (only allowing escapees to slip across the border.) Plus, supporting Austria is going to bring the French into a more direct conflict with the Germans in a way that Spain never could. Not that the French are opposed to keeping Germany down, but the Radicaux under Daladier will need major British support if they are even going to consider allowing the Popular Front government to give aid to Austria (if such a government still forms.)

I've done some further research on this and I've come across some very interesting facts. According to Adolf Sturmthal, a contemporary Austrian socialist who had on occasion direct contact with the French government, the Daladier government was very supportive of "red" Austria (something I regret calling it; Republican Austria is a much more suitable name), as were the Chautemps and Sarraut government before Daladier's second government.

Despite Radical reluctance to support the Spanish Republicans, Daladier and the rest of the Radical Party were funneling weapons, money, and aid to the Schutzbund throughout their time in government. Joseph Paul-Boncour, who served as Foreign Minister under Daladier, actually took direct action against the Dollfuss regime and opposed providing the Christian Social government with loans unless they democratized (he later lessened the restrictions and reluctantly signed on to provide a loan with the United Kingdom and others, something he later regretted after the war).

Unfortunately, Daladier's government toppled as a result of the riots in Paris just six days prior to the outbreak of the Austrian Civil War. Dollfuss took advantage of the situation and told the National Union government under Dounmergue that he no longer felt obligated to honor his agreement to respect the Austrian constitution and democratic institutions, and then the Austrian Civil War began.

As such, if Daladier does come back into power as OTL, I think we could expect a much stiffer response to fascist (and especially German) aggression against the Austrian socialists. Again, I'm not sure this would result in direct intervention, but Daladier would give much more support in this case than he did to the Spanish Republicans. What has to wonder if his support for the Austro-Marxists might change his views on the Spanish Civil War?

The Soviets on the other hand would be more willing to support Austria, but analogues to Spain persist. Stalin is going to be looking to support the communist forces, to the detriment of all other groups (anarchists, socialists, liberals, fascists, etc.), and will probably be as helpful to the Austrians as they were to the Spanish (if even that, as they cant exactly sail to Austria, and everyone in E. Europe except maybe Czechoslovakia is going to be shit scared of letting Soviet anything through their countries, and Czechoslovakia is in the same border situation as Austria.)

I think Yugoslavia would be willing to allow some support to move through it. French aid could definitely move through Yugoslavia, but I'm not entirely certain about Soviet aid. The Social Democrats exposed an Italian plot to shuttle weapons through Austria and into Hungary. The Yugoslavian government, as one might imagine, was not particularly thrilled with this, so I don't think it would be much of a stretch to have them allow aid shipments to Austria to pass through as a sort of retaliation against Mussolini.

Soviet and German communists Interbrigadists may use Czechoslovakia as a bridge to Austria.
Everything depends on the guts of Prague government.

Again, according to Adolf Sturmthal, the Czechoslovak government was funneling weapons and money to the Social Democrats, much like France was at the time. Because of that, I definitely think you're right in that regard. While Otto Wels and the SoPaDe were based in Prague in OTL, I think they move over to Vienna after the Social Democrats secure power, or at least they would organize some sort of support in the event of conflict with the Nazi regime.