Chances of A-H surviving up to the present day if no World War happened?

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Which are the chances of the Austrian-Hungarian Empire to survive until the present day if somehow the World Wars (or similar large-scale war in Europe) were avoided during the 20th century?

Would it manage to survive in peace times or would its dissolution/partition be unavoidable at some point?
 
A-H can survive but it is not easy. It should reform itself as federation where major ethnic groups would have lot of autonomy. Biggest problem is getting Hungary accept this idea. There was some nationalism but they mostly wanted more autonomy not outright secession. And other problem was that neighbors wanted certain regions. Russia wanted Galicia, Romania Transylvania, Serbia at least Bosnia-Herzegovina and Italy Southern Tyrol and Istria in minimum.
 
It certainly CAN survive in some form IF there are no general wars in Europe. Much would have depended on the circumstances of the peace as well as the leadership of the House and of the nationality leaderships. If Franz II survives to assume the throne but does not revoke the morganatic status of his marriage and the empire can hold out until Otto assumes the throne as an adult, I think the future looks good given Otto's brains and compromising spirit. Some type of federalist/autonomous solution is going to be needed, but it is possible. That the empire survived 4 years of defeat and privation until the final collapse I think speaks well of the underlying strength of the Habsburg treue spirit in the empire.
 
A-H can survive but it is not easy. It should reform itself as federation where major ethnic groups would have lot of autonomy. Biggest problem is getting Hungary accept this idea. There was some nationalism but they mostly wanted more autonomy not outright secession. And other problem was that neighbors wanted certain regions. Russia wanted Galicia, Romania Transylvania, Serbia at least Bosnia-Herzegovina and Italy Southern Tyrol and Istria in minimum.

I did not say anything about A-H surviving with their same 1914 borders, which is even more unlikely. Probably some concessions should have been made like i.e. granting the Trentino to Italy (not necessarily all the South Tyrol) and Galizia to a maybe resurrected Poland. Also Bosnia could have been divided between Serbia and Hungarian Croatia/Austrian Dalmatia at some point. Nothing of these concessions would have to require a large/medium-scale war by force.
 
Which are the chances of the Austrian-Hungarian Empire to survive until the present day if somehow the World Wars (or similar large-scale war in Europe) were avoided during the 20th century?

Would it manage to survive in peace times or would its dissolution/partition be unavoidable at some point?
Countries don't implode randomly in peace time. It took even the Soviet union 20-30 years of stagnation, decay, economic mismanagement, military overspending, international sanctions and internal repression, furthermore the rather specific circumstances of the '80s (oil glut, Chernobil, etc.) to finally fall apart.

I don't think Austria-Hungary could ever find itself in comparably disastrous circumstances in peace time.
 
Countries don't implode randomly in peace time. It took even the Soviet union 20-30 years of stagnation, decay, economic mismanagement, military overspending, international sanctions and internal repression, furthermore the rather specific circumstances of the '80s (oil glut, Chernobil, etc.) to finally fall apart.

I don't think Austria-Hungary could ever find itself in comparably disastrous circumstances in peace time.
But A-H could have faced internal revolution at some point (specially by Czechs and Romanians).
 

CalBear

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Please use the Post-1900 Misc. thread for these sorts of WI.

You need to actually start a discussion not just ask a question or issue an AH challenge




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