Challenge: Ron Paul Presidency

Sure there is if he wins the first few primary states.

Even if he wins Iowa and New Hampshire (and the latter in particular I doubt--Mitt Romney had a strong "neighbor" advantage there; also, some moderates who voted for Huntsman there in OTL will probably back Romney if Paul seems a serious contender) he will fail in South Carolina. Not many libertarians or advocates of a non-interventionist foreign policy there, lots of hawkish veterans. He might do a little bit better than his OTL poor fourth there, but not that much. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_South_Carolina,_2012

Then on to Florida, a state where his chances are even poorer. Again--not that many libertarians, plenty of Cuban Americans who want a hawkish foreign policy, Jews concerned about Israel (true, the majority of them are Democrats but there is no Democratic presidential race in 2012, so many of them may vote in the GOP primary to stop Paul if he seems a serious prospect). Paul got a grand total of 7 percent of the vote in Florida in OTL.

After that? Paul may do well in a few Mountain states, but he will be killed in the South and the big states of the Midwest--where Santorum has more appeal to evangelicals, and Romney to moderates and moderate-conservatives. And Sheldon Adelson will abandon Gingrich for Romney the moment there seems a possibility Paul could actually win.

Paul's foreign policy views make him totally unacceptable to the dominant forces in the GOP. Yes, he could win an early primary or caucus in spite of this against divided opposition, but eventually the weaker candidates will be starved of money and drop out. In a Paul-Romney contest, Paul has no chance in the big states.
 

JayoCynic22

Banned
Neither Romney nor Obama seem likely to have sex scandals. Other sorts of scandals, like Romney illegally evading taxes or Obama engaging in corruption, would be more likely.

No Congress will be workable with Ron Paul. The Republican leadership would know his full plan would be disaster, and even most of the right of the Party would never cut the military like he wants.

If Ron Paul won the Republican nomination, his anti-war and anti-Israel positions would result in the interventionist establishment abandoning him. They wouldn't just want him to lose, they'd want him to be destroyed and humiliated. Sheldon Adelson and his billions would back Obama to ensure that Ron Paul lost as badly as possible.

Ron Paul would be the Republican version of McGovern. The Southern Democrats and Union Democrats hated Nixon, but they hated McGovern more so they defected. The same thing would go on here.

Ron Paul's performance's in the debates were overstated; I easily saw through his anti-government platitudes throughout. Votes from the youth aren't going to come once Obama, one of the greatest campaigners of modern times, hammers Paul's homophobic, anti-choice (as in he agreed with Todd Akin!), anti-evolution, record. He'd steal a few votes away from the Constitution Party from isolationist conservatives, and he'd steal a few votes away from the Libertarians from conservatives who like marijuana, but those would just be marginal gains and no where near enough to compensate for the complete abandonment of the Republican establishment.

Moderates would sweep against Ron Paul, the politician with the most right-wing economic record of anyone who's served in Congress in the last century. Big business is not going to back "No bail outs" Paul. The Social Conservatives are going to be unenthusiastic backing someone against the drug war, even if he is otherwise perfectly reactionary for him. The hawks would throw all their support and money behind Obama to stop Paul. The unions are going to fight "National Right to Work" Paul. Women aren't going to break for Ron "Honest Rape" Paul and his platform to ban abortion via constitutional amendment. The racial minorities aren't going to back someone against the 1964 voting rights act who wants to abolish all forms of welfare and increase border security. LGBT people are going to stand against someone who backed DOMA, Proposition 8, opposed ENDA, and voted against hate crimes legislation. No one who backed Obama in OTL 2012 is going to defect, but a lot of people who backed Romney will either defect to Obama, vote third party, or stay home.

Ron Paul's going down like McGovern in 1972 unless it turns out that Obama was buying underage sex slaves from the Taliban and Mexican Drug Cartels.

Not true. First and foremost Paul did not run a failed campaign, he actually had a decent following. He came in 2nd and 3rd caucuses a lot and I believe even 1st once or twice. His debates were very sound, beyond that, he murdered his opponents. He won countless debates according to popular viewing polls, which is what really matters in the end: popular vote. And logical he annihilated some of his opponents, specifically Romeny, Cain and Santorrum. And Paul has a much better chance with the youth then Obama as he is against the War on Drugs, against the Iraq War, and against the IRS and Income Tax. He frequently stated that he did not believe the federal government should get involved in marriage at all, a viewpoint many could agree on because it allows Idaho to fights against it and California to legalize it, states rights.

And I don't know where you get this idea that Paul cannot win the minority vote. Paul's talk of ending the war on drugs and on racial inequality in the justice system is/can be/and was a rallying point for many minorities. Seems to me like the pieces are there
 

JayoCynic22

Banned
So how do we butterfly away the newsletters? Make him less of a racist or simply too busy with his practice to write them? Perhaps he wins his Senate run and never leaves congress, so he doesn't write those newsletters.

Winning the senate is our best bet, if not that then simply have him not write them. We don't really NEED to butterfly them away per se, I mean our POD could be as simply as he didn't write them. Butterflying away a personal choice is as simply as that.
 
Neither Romney nor Obama seem likely to have sex scandals. Other sorts of scandals, like Romney illegally evading taxes or Obama engaging in corruption, would be more likely.

Not bad enough to sink them. They're men, so it is possible. All they need is an accusation from a schizo wacko and they suffer guilt from association. It is a plasuible POD that is not an ASB.

Sheldon Adelson and his billions would back Obama to ensure that Ron Paul lost as badly as possible.

Yet, a blowing up sex scandal would flush billions down the drain during the middle of an election. It is sort of weird if you think about it, being that most people are closet perverts to begin with, but they don't want to vote for someone who has been outed.
 

JayoCynic22

Banned
Not bad enough to sink them. They're men, so it is possible. All they need is an accusation from a schizo wacko and they suffer guilt from association. It is a plasuible POD that is not an ASB.



Yet, a blowing up sex scandal would flush billions down the drain during the middle of an election. It is sort of weird if you think about it, being that most people are closet perverts to begin with, but they don't want to vote for someone who has been outed.

Or even a political scandal, which Obama has plenty of. If one blows up during the campaign, it could severely hurt him.
 
Even if he wins Iowa and New Hampshire (and the latter in particular I doubt--Mitt Romney had a strong "neighbor" advantage there; also, some moderates who voted for Huntsman there in OTL will probably back Romney if Paul seems a serious contender) he will fail in South Carolina. Not many libertarians or advocates of a non-interventionist foreign policy there, lots of hawkish veterans. He might do a little bit better than his OTL poor fourth there, but not that much. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_South_Carolina,_2012

Then on to Florida, a state where his chances are even poorer. Again--not that many libertarians, plenty of Cuban Americans who want a hawkish foreign policy, Jews concerned about Israel (true, the majority of them are Democrats but there is no Democratic presidential race in 2012, so many of them may vote in the GOP primary to stop Paul if he seems a serious prospect). Paul got a grand total of 7 percent of the vote in Florida in OTL.

After that? Paul may do well in a few Mountain states, but he will be killed in the South and the big states of the Midwest--where Santorum has more appeal to evangelicals, and Romney to moderates and moderate-conservatives. And Sheldon Adelson will abandon Gingrich for Romney the moment there seems a possibility Paul could actually win.

Paul's foreign policy views make him totally unacceptable to the dominant forces in the GOP. Yes, he could win an early primary or caucus in spite of this against divided opposition, but eventually the weaker candidates will be starved of money and drop out. In a Paul-Romney contest, Paul has no chance in the big states.

You forget the POD. ROmney sex scandal. So, he's cooked like Cain. The longer he runs, the more establishment votes he draws away. This mean's Santorum's 3rd or 2nd place behind Paul is no big deal, because Paul is now the big story.

So, New wins SC and he becomes the standard bearer. Yet who would get 2nd? Paul. SO Santorum is finsihed. You cannot show that he has the organization to win most of the Super Tuesday states. SO, it is plausible Paul can win it though certainly not a foregone conclusion, but the thread demands the possibility. So, even if Newt did a little better in the end, Paul's followers screwed with the delegates...If Paul did very respectably, all of his delegates would pull a coup.

I'm not trying to be a Paul fan boy here, but how many guys won Iowa and New Hampshire and then went on to lose the nomination...especially with stronger, better funded organizations to start with at least?
 
Or even a political scandal, which Obama has plenty of. If one blows up during the campaign, it could severely hurt him.

I disagree. Benghazi came up in the middle of the election and people actually died. Obama's excuse, "I have no clue what's goin' on!" You can't hold someone accountable if he don't know, right? The buck doesn't stop here, it stops somewhere else...
 
So here's my challenge. In either 1988, 2008 or 2012, find a way for Ron Paul to be elected President. Once you have that, how would a Ron Paul presidency look??

Well, for making him President in 1988, you could make the PoD Able Archer - the size of whatever United States he's President of, and whether he does some of his ruling with a spear, can be left for latter.

More seriously, as has been addressed, Mr Paul has the problem that many of his beliefs are unpalatable to the GOP base at large in '12, and many of his other long running, shall we see "quieter beliefs," would irritate those who did support him '12. That being said, '88 (even sans nuclear exchange). is your best shot because some of those "quieter beliefs" can still be expressed amongst the GOP base (think Jesse Helms) and his anti-communism can counteract his isolationism.
 
Not true. First and foremost Paul did not run a failed campaign, he actually had a decent following. He came in 2nd and 3rd caucuses a lot and I believe even 1st once or twice.
Ron Paul managed to win one territory which can't even vote in a presidential election, and he managed to get second place in a couple of low turnout caucuses in small states. He never cracked 40% except in Virgina where everyone other than Romney and him got disqualified from the ballot, and only managed to crack 30% in one other state. He ended up with less than 11% of Republican primary voters backing him, even though he stayed in the race for every primary. That's not a good performance, and doesn't indicate strength in any fashion.

In addition, his campaign was corrupt as hell, up to and including bribing people for their endorsement.

His debates were very sound, beyond that, he murdered his opponents. He won countless debates according to popular viewing polls, which is what really matters in the end: popular vote.
Popular viewing polls matter jack shit. What matters in the end is how the debates affect the polls for the actual election, and in those polls, despite all of the "successes" Paul had in the debates, he never rose to the top of the GOP field, unlike other good debaters like Gingrich or Cain.

And can you source some of these popular viewing polls that were scientifically conducted polls by a reputable polling outfit, and not some shady online poll or a straw poll or some random far-right guy polling his own radio show's audience? You do know that online polls and straw polls (the only types of polls Ron Paul ever wins) are not accurate and statistically bogus?

And logical he annihilated some of his opponents, specifically Romeny, Cain and Santorrum.
A bunch of anti-government platitudes and free-market utopian thinking aren't logic.

And Paul has a much better chance with the youth then Obama as he is against the War on Drugs, against the Iraq War, and against the IRS and Income Tax.
Until Obama demonstrates the fact that Obama is a far-right reactionary on every social issue. Obama was against the Iraq war, which hadn't flared back up again by 2012, and the youth who voted based on opposition to the War on Drugs voted Libertarian or Green, and the ones who voted against the IRS and income tax voted Libertarian, Constitution, or Republican. None of the positions you listed would steal any votes from Obama.
He frequently stated that he did not believe the federal government should get involved in marriage at all, a viewpoint many could agree on because it allows Idaho to fights against it and California to legalize it, states rights.
That doesn't really matter when he says he believes marriage is between one man and one woman, is on the record supporting DOMA, and is on record trying to ban same-sex adoption via Federal Law. And he does not believe in evolution, and wants to ban abortion via constitutional amendment. "Honest Rape". He believes evolution and environmentalism in general are hoaxes, an all-out conspiracy theory. Paul's a reactionary misogynist homophobic bigot like the rest of the hardcore social conservatives. And most of the other social conservatives aren't conspiracy theorists.

And I don't know where you get this idea that Paul cannot win the minority vote. Paul's talk of ending the war on drugs and on racial inequality in the justice system is/can be/and was a rallying point for many minorities. Seems to me like the pieces are there
Ron Paul is on the record against the 1964 Civil Rights Act. Ron Paul is on the record against the 1965 voting rights act. Ron Paul is on the record saying that Affirmative Action is racist. Ron Paul is on the record calling for increased border security. Ron Paul is on the record wanting to abolish Social Security and all other forms of welfare. Ron Paul is on the record wanting to abolish public schooling. Ron Paul is on the record wanting to end financial aid for poor people at colleges.

I don't know where you get the idea that Paul could win any minority voters when he stands for all of the positions above, positions opposed by almost all minority voters.

Not bad enough to sink them. They're men, so it is possible. All they need is an accusation from a schizo wacko and they suffer guilt from association. It is a plasuible POD that is not an ASB.

Yet, a blowing up sex scandal would flush billions down the drain during the middle of an election. It is sort of weird if you think about it, being that most people are closet perverts to begin with, but they don't want to vote for someone who has been outed.
Bill Clinton had a sex scandal and his approval rating went up. Unless Obama or Romney raped someone or abused a child, they aren't going to be hurt enough to lose to someone as unpopular as Ron Paul. And if you're going to call for something crazy like that, you might as well propose the POD being Obama and Romney both committing suicide in 2012, because that is about as, if not more, likely that a sex scandal large enough to sink them against Paul (and a standard cheating with another normal woman scandal would not be enough)
 
Bill Clinton had a sex scandal and his approval rating went up."

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No. It broke Jan 1998. A booming economny and blowing up Muslims didn't stop the free fall.

Unless Obama or Romney raped someone or abused a child, they aren't going to be hurt enough to lose to someone as unpopular as Ron Paul.

Not true, First, you underestimate sex scandals. Obama ran as a family man, while Clinton was known as a philanderer and crook even before 1992. Obama's image would be destroyed by an affair. Slick Willy didn't have much of an image to keep up.

ROmney, being a Mormon, had the image of wearing magical underpants and being morally virtuous, but money hungry. A sex scandal would also sink him.

It wouldn't sink many other politicians: Newt Gingrich or Hillary (if it came out now) wouldn't be affected. Hillary might actually stand to gain, ironically.

And if you're going to call for something crazy like that, you might as well propose the POD being Obama and Romney both committing suicide in 2012, because that is about as, if not more, likely that a sex scandal large enough to sink them against Paul (and a standard cheating with another normal woman scandal would not be enough)

Well, their tarnished image yet staying in the race gets Paul in. Death usually helps the party that had the guy died. Dead people have one elections...the "death bump" cannot be underestimated.
 
And literally every politician in your way coming down with a sex scandal (some of how at least probably have nothing to hide in that regard) is extremely unlikely - at best.

It's in the realm of ASB. You'd need to change personalities.
 
Not true, First, you underestimate sex scandals. Obama ran as a family man, while Clinton was known as a philanderer and crook even before 1992. Obama's image would be destroyed by an affair. Slick Willy didn't have much of an image to keep up.
Sex scandals hurt people. But not enough to cause Obama to lose to Ron Paul. Obama to Romney? Sure. Maybe Obama could even lose to Santorum or Gingrich with a sex scandal. But not to Paul, for the reasons I've outlined above (which, by your inability to respond to any of them, I assume you've conceded)

Obama and Romney had the reputation as family men because they are. They're no more likely to get brought down by a sex scandal than they are to get brought down by getting caught taking crystal meth. This is like a WI saying "Could Hitler have won the war if he didn't hate Jews" - it is possible to have Hitler not hate Jews, but it would be implausible and would require another POD to cause.
 
No, ASB is a literal miracle. The Germans conducting an invasion in which they had no fleet nor air superiority to get it done is a miracle. Getting someone who could have won both New Hampshire and Iowa. Since 1976 every nominee but one, Republican or Democrat, won either Iowa or New Hampshire. It is unprecedented that someone would win both and then lose.

So, Paul could have technically done it sans racist newsletters. Then comes the general election and one simple sex scandal would do it.

For example, a lack of racist writings and a sex scandal wouldn't win Hitler Sealion. These are two completely different realms.
 
No, ASB is a literal miracle. The Germans conducting an invasion in which they had no fleet nor air superiority to get it done is a miracle. Getting someone who could have won both New Hampshire and Iowa. Since 1976 every nominee but one, Republican or Democrat, won either Iowa or New Hampshire. It is unprecedented that someone would win both and then lose.

So, Paul could have technically done it sans racist newsletters. Then comes the general election and one simple sex scandal would do it.

For example, a lack of racist writings and a sex scandal wouldn't win Hitler Sealion. These are two completely different realms.


Thing is Paul won't win NH here if Rommy gets taken out then Huntsman would of done way better in NH and other places..
 
Sex scandals hurt people. But not enough to cause Obama to lose to Ron Paul.

I disagree, it would destroy Obama's image. If it happens in late October, he's screwed, just like it destroyed Jonathan Edwards.

...by your inability to respond to any of them, I assume you've conceded

WHy respond to them when amongst what you are writing are patent untruths, such as Clinton's supposed popularity bump? They don't garner serious consideration

This is like a WI saying "Could Hitler have won the war if he didn't hate Jews" - it is possible to have Hitler not hate Jews, but it would be implausible and would require another POD to cause.

This presumes these men have never had any affairs. The general population does so at a 35 percent clip. SO, just playing the numbers, it is more likely than not that between Romney and Obama one of them had an unknown affair.

Again, this is not Sealion ASB.
 
Paul beat Hunstman in NH and he would poll even stronger after an Iowa win and no racist newsletters. Hunstman daughters couldn't pick up the slack.

He did in OTL since Huntsman and Romney split the moderate/Business Republican vote in the TL Proposed Huntsman gets all those voters.
 
Huntsman is a nobody like Paul, the difference being he ahd no cult following. So, they all wouldn't go to Huntsman, they would likely be split between Huntsman, Santorum, and Newt. In fact, if Newt at least doesn't get second in New Hampshire, it hurts his long term credibility in this ATL campaign.

Again, I am not here arguing a Paul victory was probable, on that it was possible unlike many other ASBs.
 
It is unprecedented that someone would win both and then lose.
Until 2008 it was unprecedented that someone who was black would win a presidential election. Until 2012 it was unprecedented that a Mormon would win a major party election. Until 1972 it was unprecedented that someone without any backers from major party bosses would win a presidential nomination. Until 1964 it was unprecedented that someone would win the Republican party nomination without the support of the Eastern Establishment.

I disagree, it would destroy Obama's image. If it happens in late October, he's screwed, just like it destroyed Jonathan Edwards.
John Edwards was destroyed because he committed crimes to hide his affair, which also involved a love child and a wife dying of cancer. That is much more severe than anything you propose.

WHy respond to them when amongst what you are writing are patent untruths, such as Clinton's supposed popularity bump? They don't garner serious consideration
I was wrong there; it was during his impeachment that his approval rose, not the scandal itself. But you did respond to that one, because you actually had a response.

I posted things that Ron Paul is on the record for saying he supported. I don't see how that can be patently untrue in any way shape or form. You went to go nit-pick about the Clinton approval things because that was the only minor detail that you actually had facts and not just a bunch of propaganda to argue with.

This presumes these men have never had any affairs. The general population does so at a 35 percent clip. SO, just playing the numbers, it is more likely than not that between Romney and Obama one of them had an unknown affair.

Again, this is not Sealion ASB.
The general population isn't Mormon, millionaires, hasn't spent years if not decades under public scrutiny, isn't in such a stable marriage (a lot of marriages end in divorce), and isn't president of the United States. Even if Obama or Romney were having an affair, I doubt they'd be stupid enough to do it during the campaign.

I never called it Sealion ASB; I compared them to the "Not anti-Semitic Hitler" threads because it's the random "Let's just change someone's personality totally without explanation" BS that people use when they can't think of a way for the person to plausibly act different. Part of writing high quality AH is to have your subjects actually act like the historic characters they are based on, or giving them a plausible reason to act differently.
 
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