Chafee as an anti-war challenger for Bush in 2004?

[Justin Pickard]

Apparently, in 2004,

Senator Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island considered challenging Bush on an anti-war platform in New Hampshire, but decided not to run after the capture of Saddam Hussein in December 2003.

So, let's assume Hussein evades capture - for the time being - and Chafee stands. Obviously, he's not got a snowball's chance in hell of securing the nomination, but he could be an interesting actor in what was (in OTL) a pretty close presidential election.

Any thoughts?

 

[Thande]

From what I recall, Howard Dean was the choice of the hard anti-war vote in the 2004 primaries, so wouldn't a Chafee candidacy just split that vote and result in Kerry becoming the frontrunner earlier?

Of course that might in itself make a difference, but I doubt it would be a very significant one. On the other hand, that election was close enough that butterflies alone might be sufficient to change the result.

 

[TNF]

From what I recall, Howard Dean was the choice of the hard anti-war vote in the 2004 primaries, so wouldn't a Chafee candidacy just split that vote and result in Kerry becoming the frontrunner earlier?

Chafee is a Republican.

Bush sweeps the primaries, with the possible exception of New Hampshire and some New England states, if Chafee is extremely lucky. If Chafee actually makes Bush sweat, I'd say that you'd see a lot more Democrats throw their hats in the ring for a shot at George Bush who might appear weak with his own base. If Bush sails to victory in the primaries, expect nothing unusual.

Once the primary is over, though, there's the possibility of Chafee gouging his own support and mounting a third party bid as an independent. I actually think this would hurt Kerry more than it would Bush, as it would take away the moderate Republicans who've been voting Democratic as of late. If Kerry (or any other Democrat) courts Chafee, though, and gets him to join the Democratic ticket, you have a veritable "stop-Bush" coalition.

Following a Democratic loss or his own loss in the primary, you can expect Chafee would be exiled within the Republican caucus. He might become an independent sooner or even, in the case that he joins the Democratic ticket, a Democrat. If he remains an isolated Republican, expect his primary challenger to do a lot of damage to him in 2006, as it did OTL.

 

[Dan1988]

Chafee? An anti-war challenger? Yeah, right - and whilst your at it, have Buddy Cianci elected Governor of Rhode Island!

Seriously, I can tell you that that is ASB. There is absolutely no way that something like it would work - and if all else fails, there's his record as mayor of Warwick, Rhode Island - not Warwick, Warwickshire, obviously - and negative aspects of it can be used against him. This is, after all, the GOP we're talking about, and the GOP in 2004 on top of that.

 

[Charles II]

To be honest I see an anti-war challenge to Bush in the form of Ron Paul far more interesting than a challange from Chafee would be. Though I must say if Chafee challanges Bush and loses big time, might we see the party oust its moderate wing by the '04 convention, and asuming Bush wins reelection we would see a very different '08 GOP primary I imagine.

 

[WestVirginiaRebel]

I would think John McCain might ironically have been in a better position to challenge Bush had there been enough dissatisfaction within the GOP itself to look for an alternative. A Ron Paul run might have given more votes to Kerry.

The idea of Saddam running the insurgency from Iran (assuming he made it that far) or some other hiding place might actually have created a greater drive for the number of troops people like McCain said were needed before the surge.

 

[Justin Pickard]

Chafee? An anti-war challenger? Yeah, right - and whilst your at it, have Buddy Cianci elected Governor of Rhode Island!

Seriously, I can tell you that that is ASB. There is absolutely no way that something like it would work - and if all else fails, there's his record as mayor of Warwick, Rhode Island - not Warwick, Warwickshire, obviously - and negative aspects of it can be used against him. This is, after all, the GOP we're talking about, and the GOP in 2004 on top of that.

Well, I wasn't saying it was going to make that much of a difference. He originally suggested running as a point of principle, rather than as part of any long-term game plan. And this is all in the primaries. It's quite a small POD, but still - doesn't mean it's inherently ASB territory.

To be honest I see an anti-war challenge to Bush in the form of Ron Paul far more interesting than a challange from Chafee would be. Though I must say if Chafee challanges Bush and loses big time, might we see the party oust its moderate wing by the '04 convention, and asuming Bush wins reelection we would see a very different '08 GOP primary I imagine.

Now, this is intriguing. Say Chafee does okayish at the convention, hoovering up the anti-war/anti-Bush Republican votes. It's a minority, but enough of a minority to prove problematic. The party "mainstream" use this as an opportunity to marginalise the fiscal conversatives, the libertarians and the states'-rights-ers ... with the gesture of "like it or lump it". Some would no doubt stay with the party, but I suppose we could see Chafee standing as an independent, sucking up some votes from both the main parties, and some of the smaller candidates.

The end result is more or less the same, although the Republican Party is a little less stable than in OTL. Butterflies?

 

[OperationGreen]

The idea of Saddam running the insurgency from Iran (assuming he made it that far) or some other hiding place might actually have created a greater drive for the number of troops people like McCain said were needed before the surge.

I know the Iranian Government doesn't like the west etc however I think if Saddam were in Iran they would not be hiding him. More showing him to the public as they prepare to kill him...

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Does more harm to Kerry in the general election, unfortunately.