Catholic church falls 1485 to Ottoman Empire

[Kcmasterpiece2]

this is something i've always found an interesting alternate history; was actually theoretically possible. Also writing a novel with this essential premise, so I need some help.

Here's the backdrop:

Mehmed the conqueror led a few successful campaigns against the Kingdom of Naples, that are not well known because after his death the Ottomans abandoned their acquisitions.

So essentially, after the death of Mehmet in 1481, his son Beyezit II expands into south Italy, annexing Naples. I'd assume the pope calls for a crusade, which angers the sultan, so he invades Rome, blockades it, and surrounds the city, trapping the pope and the entire papal government and holding them ransom. An early holy-league forms of course, and the Ottomans deliver an ultimatum: disband now or the Pope and his government will be executed. The league refuses, declares war, and the Ottomans execute the entire papal government.

Italian states siege Rome, break through the walls and in desperation the Ottoman commander of the garrison orders the destruction of the Rock of St. Peter and St. Peter's basilica.

Ottomans end up winning the coalition war, and maintaining control of Rome. I did a lot of research into this and I actually think it was possible for the following reasons:

1) Austria and France were at war during this time, and to my knowledge Spain had a peasant revolt. Most of the catholic great powers aren't going to be able to commit soldiers, meaning the war is left up to northern Italy, Hungary and the smaller HRE states.

2) I think Ottoman military tactics were just far too superior for Europeans at the time. The Ottomans already beat European armies and coalitions over twice their size in multiple battles and wars not too long before. The first major European victory against them was Lapento, almost a century later.

Anyway, assuming all of this, I have gone a bit in my timeline, but only into the 16th century.

Italian soldiers return home, telling of the horrors of the war. Widespread anarchy rages across Europe--this was before the reformation, so I am sure there would be heretical movements but they would be very dis-unified and not as prevalent.

Pretenders to the church probably rise up. I am thinking in France (2nd Avignon?) and Austria/HRE.

If the Empire manages to form its own church, I expect it to probably centralize greatly--emergency powers to the Emperor and all that, given the domestic state and the state of the Church.

Past that, I'm not sure. It's been difficult trying to figure the psychology of Europeans at the time and how this radical change would have affected Christian and Islamic societies--dont get me wrong, i want to figure out how this would have affected Ottoman citizens as well. Does Europe enter another dark age? If so, are they able to put up any kind of resistance against the Turks? Do Anatolia/ME become the centers of progress and what does progress look like in this world? what about the New World? etc

Lots of questions, lots of trying to figure out what happens. Hope you guys can help and have an interesting discussion.

 

[A Most Sovereign Lady]

Conquering Rome does not kill Catholicism. Period. Destroying buildings doesn't either. The advantage that Christianity has over other religions is that it has no need of holy places, special buildings or such. The relationship between a Nazarene and his God is intrapersonal, and has nothing to do with such things.

 

[KnightofTempest]

It's not practical, remember that the Ottoman Navy wasn't some giant juggernaut that could sustain a non-contiguous holding like Italy would be, not in the face of Genoa and Venice and Certainly not in the Face of Spain. IOTL they were overstretched just holding the Balkans, by the time they reached Vienna in the 16th century they were at their limit of foreign territory they could reliably hold.

If they, by some miracle manage to pull off a victory in Italy, the inevitable Franco-Spanish-Imperial Counterattack retakes it handily and would recieve support from literally everywhere in Europe to do so. . .

I think you're overestimating the Catholic Great Powers Problems, as well as forgetting that in the late 15th Century, Poland was also a Great Power and had already been in a personal union with Lithuania. The King of Poland's Brother also is the King of Hungary and Bohemia so that will inevitably draw all the Jagiellon Realms into the War.

As to Spain France and Austria, any rebellion in Spain, and any War between France and Austria will immediately cease the second an Ottoman Army captures Rome. Nothing unites internal divisions at this point like an outside invader, after all. . .

Then there's the fact that you have a tradition of Anti-popes being elected in circumstances such as this, the last one having died only 40 years ago. In this situation, the highest remaining ranking clergymembers (Most Likely the Archbishops of Europe) would convene, probably in Avignon, to elect a new Pope. Remember, in canon law it does not state that only Cardinals can be considered for the Papacy, although it is traditional now, technically any Catholic Man of suitable status can be put forwards for the Papacy. Likely it will be an Archbishop this time. . .

As for your assertion that Ottoman Armies are superior, this is also false. For one thing, you have the Black Army of Hungary, which was a modern, professional, force using pike and shot in the 1460's almost a full decade before such things were fashionable, you also have the Winged Hussars of Poland, who regularly defeated armies up to 8 times their size, as well as the Polish Army which had modernized enough by this point to inflict a severe defeat on the Teutonic Order and impose the Peace of Thorns on them, effectively vassalizing them. Gunpowder Artillery has been a thing in Europe since the 1300's and the Arquebus is just becoming common in the Armies of Major Powers. Spain was fine tuning the Tercio at this time on Battlefields across Northern Italy, and you had the First of the Landsknechts popping up in the HRE. . .

By and Large the Ottomans had won those victories you champion against Medieval Armies, by the 1480's the Armies of Europe were rapidly evolving into the Pike and Shot Armies of the 16th Century.

 

[Practical Lobster]

Conquering Rome does not kill Catholicism. Period. Destroying buildings doesn't either. The advantage that Christianity has over other religions is that it has no need of holy places, special buildings or such. The relationship between a Nazarene and his God is intrapersonal, and has nothing to do with such things.

Um... over all other religions?

Obviously the fall of Rome isn't going to break Catholicism but it would definitely have a huge cultral impact akin to any of the Jerusalem fell.

Implying Christianity has a sui generis special lack of emphasis on holy places and sites strikes me as very modern view of a relatively modern Christianity.

 

[Gukpard]

The entire europe makes a new crusader, larger than anyone ever made (maybe even the orthodox russian principalities join it if they believe that Constantinople can be recovered) and obliterate the ottoman empire, and possible forces all muslims from the balkans and south italy into a mass flight into anatolia and north africa

 

[Fabius Maximus]

Um... over all other religions?

Obviously the fall of Rome isn't going to break Catholicism but it would definitely have a huge cultral impact akin to any of the Jerusalem fell.

Implying Christianity has a sui generis special lack of emphasis on holy places and sites strikes me as very modern view of a relatively modern Christianity.

"Overall all other religions" is an exaggeration, but Catholicism has survived similar things IOTL (the loss of Jerusalem to the Infidel -- five times! [depending on how you count it] -- the 68-year Papal sojourn in Avignon, the 39-year Western Schism, the capture of Rome and the Pope in 1527, the loss of the Papal States to Italy and the whole "prisoner in the Vatican" era) without collapsing, so TTL's Ottoman capture wouldn't be a mortal blow.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

The league refuses, declares war, and the Ottomans execute the entire papal government.

Even if the Pope and most of his advisors are there, it would be highly unlikely that every member of the Papal government would be in Rome -- you'd have governors of cities, papal legates, etc., in other places.

Ottomans end up winning the coalition war, and maintaining control of Rome. I did a lot of research into this and I actually think it was possible for the following reasons:

Even granting what you say, I think logistics would prevent the Ottomans from making any lasting conquests. IOTL central Hungary was about the limit of their reach, and Rome and central Italy would be harder to get to from Constantinople.

 

[hzn5pk]

Would this effect Spain in funding Columbus?

Spain kicks out the Moors and then aids the Italians in eliminating the Ottoman threat along with other European catholic kingdoms. Would be cool if Russia joins in. Where would they stop?

Or what if when Spain does go forward with Columbus and the new world is found as well as aiding in what she can to stop the Ottomans. Spain then uses the gold in the new world in 1500's to fully go after the Ottomans. They provide token forces at first but then as their wealth increases, so does their contribution against the Ottomans.

The Ottomans are stuck in a hard place. The naval forces of Europe basically keep them in southern Italy withering on the vine. After Rome is restored, it is off the Constantinople is the cry.

What is the relationship between the Ottomans and the Arabs? Would it be possible for Venice or Genoa to make a treaty with the Arabs that says that they will ally to overthrow the Ottomans. The Arabs will get what is OTL Iraq and the Europeans will get Thrace and the western half of Anatolia and set up the Byzantine empire again. Russians aid as well.

Levant including Jerusalem will probably be Arab. Arabs grant Europeans travel to Jerusalem.

Is this feasible?

What if in this, England aids, in the 1500's Henry VIII is able to divorce wives, he gets one mulligan because before his time, his forefathers in England helped out as well. In the end, he does not break away from Catholicism. Yes England will compete with Spain, but Spain will not be so hell bent on conquering and invading England. Spain saves her furry for Ottomans.

It takes a while, but the Ottoman menace is completely wiped off the planet between Spain, England, Austria and France make nice and join in, the Italian kingdoms, Moscow and/or Kiev, and the Arabs

With England remaining Catholic, what if the same arrangements are made between the European powers as Spain did with Portugal in South America, the restored Papacy mediates claims in the new world between England, France, Spain ........ over time it where off and the powers and their colonies compete for the new world.

 

[Just a Rube]

The Mamluks in Egypt and the Karamanids in Anatolia are still running around at this point as additional threats to the Ottomans in the Middle East, both of whom have histories of allying with Europeans against the Ottomans. Not that the Europeans would need help (unlike Varna, the Catholics will have a much easier time supporting forces in Italy compared to the Ottomans).

Catholicism would survive (it's well entrenched throughout Europe at this point), although the crisis will likely cause new reform movements (not Protestantism, but a focus on piety/asceticism/poverty; sort of a St. Francis 2.0) and possibly a new reinvigoration of crusading.

 

[Odd_Numbered_Bonaparte]

Basically this is the 15th century equivalent of 'nuke Mecca, no more Muslims'.
Religion doesn't work that way

 

[Faeelin]

Venice had just finished and lost a war to the Ottomans. Why help?

 

[DanMcCollum]

I wonder if a successful European counterattack that drives the Ottomans from Italy would then turn their eye towards liberating the Balkan Christians and Constantinople. Not saying that would be successful - but THAT would make a beautiful timeline.

 

[Evil Crusader]

"Overall all other religions" is an exaggeration, but Catholicism has survived similar things IOTL (the loss of Jerusalem to the Infidel -- five times! [depending on how you count it] -- the 68-year Papal sojourn in Avignon, the 39-year Western Schism, the capture of Rome and the Pope in 1527, the loss of the Papal States to Italy and the whole "prisoner in the Vatican" era) without collapsing, so TTL's Ottoman capture wouldn't be a mortal blow.

Those are not comparable - Jerusalem has never really been THAT relevant past the 2nd Century (only being a distant symbol, and one of the five main Patriarchs out of desire to respect that), all the 13th-16th Centuries troubles were done by Catholics to Catholics and did in fact lead to Reformation, and the recent loss of Papal States was met with gratitude, overall, by non-Italian Catholics. Sure, some did campaign for the lost state, but few enough that Italy had no problem holding onto Rome and even making it their own capital.

I would agree, anyways, that the Ottomans probably can't win such a war; sure, in the short term the response was lukewarm, but if the danger really started growing, many would have flocked to the banner of Christendom - including Venice, who still could outperform the Ottomans on sea and wasn't that keen on having a power control both straits at the end of the Adriatic.
Unless Mehmed decides to go all-out on Southern Italy, in which case he can obtain considerable success - especially from the Orthodox and Muslim communities. But still, I don't think he'd be able to really launch a successful strike to Rome, much less hold onto it.

 

[A Most Sovereign Lady]

Um... over all other religions?

Obviously the fall of Rome isn't going to break Catholicism but it would definitely have a huge cultral impact akin to any of the Jerusalem fell.

Implying Christianity has a sui generis special lack of emphasis on holy places and sites strikes me as very modern view of a relatively modern Christianity.

I didn't say 'all other religions', I said, very generally and extremely vaguely 'other religions'. For example, let us take Muhammadans, who are obligated to pray to a rock five or six times a day. Contrast... Buddhists, as a non-Christian example, who have no need of holy places either.

 

[Tripledot]

I didn't say 'all other religions', I said, very generally and extremely vaguely 'other religions'. For example, let us take Muhammadans, who are obligated to pray to a rock five or six times a day. Contrast... Buddhists, as a non-Christian example, who have no need of holy places either.

The term "Mohammedans" is antiquated and is not used any longer, and Muslims do not pray to the Black Stone, nor would the loss of the Black Stone be irrecoverable. The Qarmatians sacked Mecca and stole the Black Stone, yet Islam still exists to this day.

 

[A Most Sovereign Lady]

The term "Mohammedans" is antiquated and is not used any longer, and Muslims do not pray to the Black Stone, nor would the loss of the Black Stone be irrecoverable. The Qarmatians sacked Mecca and stole the Black Stone, yet Islam still exists to this day.

My vocabulary is dated to a degree because I prefer to use antiquated speech patterns, much to the dislike of others. I apologize on the latter however, I was, erroneously as it would appear, taught that they (Muslims) pray to their rock.

 

[NolanFoster]

It would obviously result in a movement across Europe to reclaim Rome, which will probably succeed within a couple years.

That being said, the Ottomans are more than strong enough at this point to repulse any European foray into their part of the Balkans, so the Ottomans will have their own huge victory when the crusading movement overreaches after its victories in Italy and tries to push to Constantinople.

 

[Xenophonte]

The Ottomans were not able to make a successful and proper naval interdiction in Malta to prevent the Tercios from landing successfully and organizing to help their allies and launch an offensive against them that eventually forced them to acknowledge their defeat and have to retreat to Constantinople.
Then, after part of their troops were defeated in a combat and some skirmishes did not try to resist and to defend to the last man its beachhead and they hastened to retire to their boats.

Also, early to start making baseless speculation about possible (not to mention successful) Ottoman offensives in Italy ... we must remember that in military / strategic terms Malta is a pointless base or starting point for this goal.

Remember, too, what History 'shows / teaches' to us ... is that if the Ottomans had really wanted / been able to try to launch this kind of offensive. They possessed the opposite side of the Otranto Channel, which is the Balkanic point closest to southern Italy.
Therefore, if the Ottomans had wished it or if they had believed themselves capable of doing so, that was the perfect naval / military (and logistics) base from which to launch a full invasion ...

Because aside the logistical and military problems they understand that first they must did was to conquest Sicily and avoided these Christian military/naval threat in their offensive backs and were unable to afford the military and logistical effort.

Nevertheless, although they had managed to conquered the Island before the arrival of the Tercios and /or they will must to try to repel the foresee and continuous landing attempts for reconquest Malta.

Therefore, early from could begin more offensives they first must make sure the island and its surrounding seas and would try to attack/test the Sicilia's cities/naval base's defenses.

They should also must have avoided from being isolated from their empire by more than likely naval attacks from Sicily and Naples to their logistics lines.


In any case, it should be borne in mind, as already mentioned above, that any Ottoman success in Malta would have caused the prioritization towards increased popular and political pressure to eliminate the threat. As well as the corresponding counter reaction military, naval and in the production belica (according to the standards and types of that time, of course) on the part of the Christian powers.

 

[Halcyon Dayz]

My vocabulary is dated to a degree because I prefer to use antiquated speech patterns, much to the dislike of others.

So you know it is irritating and confusing?

I apologize on the latter however, I was, erroneously as it would appear, taught that they (Muslims) pray to their rock.

They pray to God.

 

[Nivek]

If the ottomans conquer the whole south italy+Rome and keep it...that would be ottoman territory, of course catholics will have to pay the Jidza as people of the book but they might just leave rome intact under the law of protection of people of the book, of course if incident happen and people try something stupid it might change a lot of things...still ottomans will just keep rome as their newest toys and the vaticans as a jewel of their conquest, expect pro ottoman priest in italy a lot.

the rest, depend what happen and how much time the ottomans stay at rome, but seems protestant will get a massive boost from this..