Catherine of Aragon born a boy

Yes. Ironically male! Catherine will end up in the same situation as her female counterpart's husband.
As for who can Arthur marry TTL...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joanna_of_Naples_%281478%E2%80%931518%29 - THE OTL backup candidate for Arthur, older than him, may have issue from (TTL non-incest) match. If Spanish alliance is still in the card for Brits, Arthur'll marry Joanna of Naples.
Or we, as said before, can "butterfly balance" the events by having Miguel de Paz being born female AND his (her) mother Isabel to survive ordeal, and this way Maria and not Joanna marries to Britain.

Well, Arthur could marry widowed Margaret of Austria, 6 year difference is not a big deal in terms of dynastic alliances.
 
Margaret will likely marry *Fernando (the name for TTL counterpart of Catherine). As people have said, the situation will be pretty much the same as with Arthur and Henry Tudors OTL.
So Maria or Joanna for Arthur, depending on situation.
 
Well, Arthur could marry widowed Margaret of Austria, 6 year difference is not a big deal in terms of dynastic alliances.

But why would Ferdinand and Isabella go through the hassle of paying back her dowry and having to secure another match for their son when the perfect option was already there in Spain!

I suspect Margaret's father would have preferred his daughter staying in Spain and marrying Ferdinand and Isabella's younger son to an English marriage, even Ferdinand and Isabella had concerns about the security of the Tudor dynasty.

The only opposition may have been religious, Margaret and Juan were clearly intimate as she conceived his child but like I said Isabella had a hotline to the Vatican to obtain any necessary dispensation.
 
Yes. Ironically male! Catherine will end up in the same situation as her female counterpart's husband.
As for who can Arthur marry TTL...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joanna_of_Naples_%281478%E2%80%931518%29 - THE OTL backup candidate for Arthur, older than him, may have issue from (TTL non-incest) match. If Spanish alliance is still in the card for Brits, Arthur'll marry Joanna of Naples.
Or we, as said before, can "butterfly balance" the events by having Miguel de Paz being born female AND his (her) mother Isabel to survive ordeal, and this way Maria and not Joanna marries to Britain.

Another butterfly would be if Maria's twin Anna survived birth, giving Ferdinand and Isabella another daughter to play with.
 
It's not a butterfly as it predates the PoD, Catherine was the youngest child of the Catholic Monarchs OTL.
 
But why would Ferdinand and Isabella go through the hassle of paying back her dowry and having to secure another match for their son when the perfect option was already there in Spain!

I suspect Margaret's father would have preferred his daughter staying in Spain and marrying Ferdinand and Isabella's younger son to an English marriage, even Ferdinand and Isabella had concerns about the security of the Tudor dynasty.

The only opposition may have been religious, Margaret and Juan were clearly intimate as she conceived his child but like I said Isabella had a hotline to the Vatican to obtain any necessary dispensation.

Margaret of Austria was her mid teens when Juan died, so she was clearly in her good child-bearing years even if she was a few years older than Ferdinand*. In the OTL she was a very capable Regent for her nephew Charles, so I'd imagine she's be a very capable Queen consort.

Prince Juan was described as sickly and weak and brought up like an "invalid". And had a vocal defect of some kind or a stammer. In some ways, the Catholic monarchs might be relieved that they would be leaving their Kingdoms to Ferdinand*, even if they were down to one son.
 
But why would Ferdinand and Isabella go through the hassle of paying back her dowry and having to secure another match for their son when the perfect option was already there in Spain!

I suspect Margaret's father would have preferred his daughter staying in Spain and marrying Ferdinand and Isabella's younger son to an English marriage, even Ferdinand and Isabella had concerns about the security of the Tudor dynasty.

The only opposition may have been religious, Margaret and Juan were clearly intimate as she conceived his child but like I said Isabella had a hotline to the Vatican to obtain any necessary dispensation.
Without a suitable French, Iberian, or Scottish wife for Arthur, I'd guess he has to settle with Elizabeth of Denmark, or wait for OTL Eleanor of Austria comes of age.
 
So Joanna of Naples for Arthur and Margaret of Austria stays in Spain by marrying *Fernando. It's interesting that if Arthur and Joanna leave issue, the Tudors will be major pretenders to throne of Naples.
 
Joanna of Naples makes sense, but OTL Henry Tudor wanted a foreign princess for his son, so it rules out the latter.

Anne de Foix-Candale is foreign royalty. Her mother was Catherine de Foix, infanta of Navarre, which made Anne cousin to King Francisco, Gaston de Foix and Queens Catherine of Navarre and Germaine de Foix. Her stepmother, Isabelle d'Albret had both Navarrese (sister to Jean III and Charlotte Borgia) and Breton connections (her mother was a Blois dite Bretagne of the line of Jeanne la Boiteuse).
 
Anne de Foix-Candale is foreign royalty. Her mother was Catherine de Foix, infanta of Navarre, which made Anne cousin to King Francisco, Gaston de Foix and Queens Catherine of Navarre and Germaine de Foix. Her stepmother, Isabelle d'Albret had both Navarrese (sister to Jean III and Charlotte Borgia) and Breton connections (her mother was a Blois dite Bretagne of the line of Jeanne la Boiteuse).

Henry wanted the Spanish marriage because it validated his own dynasty, that the most powerful and prestigious royal couple in Europe considered his son worthy of their daughter sent a message.

I'm not sure Anne really had the same effect. Assuming there was no suitable Spanish princess, I still think Henry would have been looking towards the daughter of a King.
 
There's nothing to presuppose that the daughter(s) of Charles VIII and Anne of Brittany couldn't survive. Hell, Charles could remember that the door frame's that low and duck:D
 
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