Carter Inherits Vietnam

[WestVirginiaRebel]

What, exactly, does he do with the war if it somehow lasts beyond 1975?

For the POD:

1972: The North Vietnamese reject a Nixon ultimatum to continue negotiations. November: In one of the closest elections in history, Nixon is narrowly reelected over George S. McGovern.

1973: Operation Linebacker IV, the so-called "Valentines' Day Bombings" take place.

1974: Nixon resigns. In spite of Nixon's resignation, the Republicans narrowly win the House in the mid-terms and authorize continued funding for support of South Vietnam...

1975: With renewed Congressional approval and CIA oversight, Vietcong advances are stalled outside of Saigon...President Ford authorizes air strikes against Vietcong forces, bolstered by approval ratings following the Mayaguez Incident...

1976: James Earl Carter wins the Democratic nomination, campaigning on an antiwar platform as the country sees renewed protests against ongoing U.S. involvement in Vietnam; pledges "peace with honor," ironically echoing Richard Nixon in 1968...

1977: Carter is inaugurated. U.S. continues airstrikes with the new F-16 and B1-A bomber, which had been approved by the Ford administration. Despite his campaign opposition to the B-1, Carter reluctantly approves continued funding along with modernization of the B-52. South Vietnamese forces, backed by the C.I.A. (including Air America) launch major offenses into Cambodia.

1979: Iranian Revolution. Carter is heavily criticized for "Ignoring Iran" while allowing the "Vietnam quagmire" to continue. China in particular is of growing concern as the country begins deploying troops along the Cambodian border in response to Vietnamese advances. Not wanting an all-out war with China, Carter agrees to cut off support for offensive action in Cambodia.

1980: Saigon falls to North Vietnam as the U.S. completes its withdrawal. Almost immediately, China invades Cambodia and begins invading Vietnam. "Who Lost Saigon?" becomes a campaign slogan for the Republicans as Carter is defeated by Ronald Reagan in November.

 

[ZaphodBeeblebrox]

What, exactly, does he do with the war if it somehow lasts beyond 1975?

You Mean, Besides End it ...

Quite Frankly, The Odds of a Southern-Dove Democrat being Elected President in The Middle of a Shooting War, is Just a Wee Bit Hard to Believe!

Perhaps you could Establish his Platform for The Election ...

Or Even Better, What's The POD that Allows The War to Continue, Almost into The 80s, in The First Place?

 

[WestVirginiaRebel]

You Mean, Besides End it ...

Quite Frankly, The Odds of a Southern-Dove Democrat being Elected President in The Middle of a Shooting War, is Just a Wee Bit Hard to Believe!

Perhaps you could Establish his Platform for The Election ...

Or Even Better, What's The POD that Allows The War to Continue, Almost into The 80s, in The First Place?

I added some ideas for the POD above...

 

[usertron2020]

You Mean, Besides End it ...

Quite Frankly, The Odds of a Southern-Dove Democrat being Elected President in The Middle of a Shooting War, is Just a Wee Bit Hard to Believe!

Perhaps you could Establish his Platform for The Election ...

Or Even Better, What's The POD that Allows The War to Continue, Almost into The 80s, in The First Place?

For the war to go on would mean the North Vietnamese walk away from the table after Nixon's re-election, or Ho Chi Minh essentially lives forever, or both. If that happens, the US public will be outraged at Nixon's promise of "Peace with Honor" and be looking to get out of a very bad situation. McGovern will be vindicated. So while Nixon is going down in flames not only over Watergate but now Vietnam as well, he won't have the support to put more pressure on North Vietnam. Not that the North may not get the holy hell beaten out of it in a last act of bitter frustration by Nixon before he goes. Ford would just do a holding action, I assume, so Carter gets his "inheritance".

Despite the Right's screaming bloody murder, the elections of 1974 and 1976 put such a dovish mood in Congress that they will (with a vocal minority against) go along with a withdrawal. Even Ho Chi Minh* won't try to militarily interfere with US troop evacuation. If he tried, his own generals would balk.

*-I'm assuming in this TL Ho Chi Minh survives to Carter's Administration. IOTL, the attitudes of the North Vietnamese government changed almost drastically after Ho died on September 2nd, 1969.

Edit: Just saw your update. GOP didn't HAVE control of the House during the Vietnam War. The New Deal coalition would not be crippled until Reagan, and die with Newt. To suggest they did well in 1974 through Watergate is ASB. There WAS no Vietcong left. They were annihilated in the Tet Offensive of 1968. It was North Vietnam Army Regulars, or nothing. The invasion of Vietnam by China was in response to Vietnam's invasion of Cambodia following attacks across their border in the SOUTH by the Khmer Rouge regime of Pol Pot. Are you saying Pol Pot was allowed by the US to win in Cambodia while we were still fighting in Vietnam? And the invasion launched by Vietnam was launched from their positions in their newly conquered territories in the south, and ultimately used as occupation troops the military aged populations OF the south. Are you saying the North could or would conduct a three-way war? And invading Cambodia from North Vietnam is a back-breaker. How does the Iranian Revolution happen almost two years early? How do the North Vietnamese get so curbstomped so quickly when IOTL it was the Chinese that got curbstomped?

I smell a I-hate-Carter Wank.

 

[WestVirginiaRebel]

For the war to go on would mean the North Vietnamese walk away from the table after Nixon's re-election, or Ho Chi Minh essentially lives forever, or both. If that happens, the US public will be outraged at Nixon's promise of "Peace with Honor" and be looking to get out of a very bad situation. McGovern will be vindicated. So while Nixon is going down in flames not only over Watergate but now Vietnam as well, he won't have the support to put more pressure on North Vietnam. Not that the North may not get the holy hell beaten out of it in a last act of bitter frustration by Nixon before he goes. Ford would just do a holding action, I assume, so Carter gets his "inheritance".

Despite the Right's screaming bloody murder, the elections of 1974 and 1976 put such a dovish mood in Congress that they will (with a vocal minority against) go along with a withdrawal. Even Ho Chi Minh* won't try to militarily interfere with US troop evacuation. If he tried, his own generals would balk.

*-I'm assuming in this TL Ho Chi Minh survives to Carter's Administration. IOTL, the attitudes of the North Vietnamese government changed almost drastically after Ho died on September 2nd, 1969.

Edit: Just saw your update. GOP didn't HAVE control of the House during the Vietnam War. The New Deal coalition would not be crippled until Reagan, and die with Newt. To suggest they did well in 1974 through Watergate is ASB. There WAS no Vietcong left. They were annihilated in the Tet Offensive of 1968. It was North Vietnam Army Regulars, or nothing. The invasion of Vietnam by China was in response to Vietnam's invasion of Cambodia following attacks across their border in the SOUTH by the Khmer Rouge regime of Pol Pot. Are you saying Pol Pot was allowed by the US to win in Cambodia while we were still fighting in Vietnam? And the invasion launched by Vietnam was launched from their positions in their newly conquered territories in the south, and ultimately used as occupation troops the military aged populations OF the south. Are you saying the North could or would conduct a three-way war? And invading Cambodia from North Vietnam is a back-breaker. How does the Iranian Revolution happen almost two years early? How do the North Vietnamese get so curbstomped so quickly when IOTL it was the Chinese that got curbstomped?

I smell a I-hate-Carter Wank.

Heh. Not necessarily, although it's true that Carter isn't one of my favorite Presidents...

This was a spur-of-the-moment kind of thing; for my own part I think Carter's policy in Vietnam may well have been closer to what Obama's seems to be in Afghanistan.

More updates added to the POD for discussion.

 

[Blitzhund]

If Case-Church is still passed in 1973 (you didn't mention this bit of very important legislation) how exactly do the military and the president authorize the use of military materiale and forces in Southeast Asia?

Not sure if you're old enough to remember but by the early 70s Vietnam was an immensely unpopular war in the USA and pretty much everywhere else globally. There wouldn't be 'renewed protest' - without Vietminization and Case-Church there quite possibly could have been riots, violence and worse enough to bring down a US government. Quite simply the US populace was fed up and sick of the Vietnam War.

For Ford and then Carter to support it would be so out of character for the men that this borders on ASB. This would need not only a POD in the 60s to make Vietnam a more popular war (is this possible with the draft and 58,000 American boys dead so far from home?) and to change the lives of both Ford and Carter.

Carter was all about ploughshares and not about swords.

 

[WestVirginiaRebel]

Well, Carter also suthorized the development of the neutron bomb...

As for the war, Nixon creamed McGovern in '72 despite its unpopularity. McGovern had been the liberal in the race on the Democratic side and couldn't win against the "Silent Majority" who still supported Nixon. From what I understand, Nixon was actually successful in drawing down our involvement in Vietnam by then (at least OTL) which also contributed to his win.

Note that I didn't mention troops; support for the longer war was mostly in the form of supplies and air strikes. Since there is no more draft after '73, I had antiwar protests start up again after airstrikes resumed.

Also, Case-Church failed to pass the first time it was introduced, so let's assume it doesn't get passed again.

Maybe if he held off on Vietnamization and troop withdrawals, Nixon might have gotten the narrower victory I suggested...

 

[Blitzhund]

As for the war, Nixon creamed McGovern in '72 despite its unpopularity.

Nixon ran on a platform of Vietmanization not an escalation or continuation of the war. "Peace with Honor" as was already mentioned.

Here are gallop poll results - support for the Vietnam War - question asked "In view of the developments since we entered the fighting in Vietnam, do you think the U. S. made a mistake sending troops to fight in Vietnam?"

Here's the percentages that said no - aka that supported the war:
Aug 68: 37%
Oct 68: 39%
Feb 69: 40%
Sep 69: 31%
Jan 70: 33%
Mar 70: 38%
Apr 70: 36%
Jan 71: 33%
May 71: 29%

I'm not against your ATL, but the POD needs to be before Tet and I think should also butterfly away Carter's election. You also need to sell the American people in this TL so that they can continue to support a military action (be it via supply or bombs or both) in southeast asia.

 

[arrowiv]

The POD would have to be sometime before 1964-65. There is no way Vietnam would still have continued under Carter. Back in the early Sixties, the public was still buying the Domino Theory and many politicians active then still remembered McCarthyism and could not afford to appear to be soft on communism. The last thing LBJ and Dick Nixon wanted was to see this country go through a second Joe McCarthy Red Scare had Saigon fell under either of their administrations.

 

[SirAshfordFanrico]

Wouldn't this also mean that the Tet Offensive wasn't a big costly failure for the Viet Cong??? or didn't shock the American public as much as it did OTL?

Also... how could the Viet Cong have kept it going this long???

 

[Bearcat]

American support for RVN cannot be maintained past 1974 if Watergate happens.

But if Watergate does not happen, Carter cannot be elected, or even nominated. He only won as an 'outsider' that year because of Watergate. It'll be Ford versus Scoop Jackson in 1976.