Carlos II of Spain dies in 1685 - who may Maria Antonia marry?

[Valena]

Working on my new TL, got an idea of weird butterfly- what if it's Carlos II of Spain dying on May 26, 1685? Maria Antonia of Austria, his niece, will become Maria I of Spain, but... who would she marry?
The OTL match with Elector of Bavaria is unlikely to happen in such circumstances. Her another groom was Victor Amadeus II of Savoy, though this may run into the problems the invitation of Victor Amadeus to become King-Consort of Portugal faced (or may not, because Savoy and Spanish Italian holdings are close).

In Savoyard consort situation Elector of Bavaria is free to marry another woman. And Marie Louise d'Orleans, now Dowager Queen of Spain, is an attractive 23-years old, who may be put to the marriage market again.

 

[JonasResende]

Working on my new TL, got an idea of weird butterfly- what if it's Carlos II of Spain dying on May 26, 1685? Maria Antonia of Austria, his niece, will become Maria I of Spain, but... who would she marry?
The OTL match with Elector of Bavaria is unlikely to happen in such circumstances. Her another groom was Victor Amadeus II of Savoy, though this may run into the problems the invitation of Victor Amadeus to become King-Consort of Portugal faced (or may not, because Savoy and Spanish Italian holdings are close).

In Savoyard consort situation Elector of Bavaria is free to marry another woman. And Marie Louise d'Orleans, now Dowager Queen of Spain, is an attractive 23-years old, who may be put to the marriage market again.

Would Louis XIV try to wed Marie Louise to a bachelor Elector Max? Although admittedly a situation where Carlos II is dead and VAII marries Antonia leaves both of Monsieur's daughters without husbands. I could see Louis offering Anne Marie for a second wife to Pedro II of Portugal, or maybe he offers Louison there. Which then leaves Sophie of Neuberg without a chair (not to mention her sister Marianna).

A Bavarian match, though useful, would be a waste (since France already has an alliance with them and Max's aim was to side with the French without breaking ties with the Habsburgs IIRC). So I'm not sure where Louison could wind up except Lisbon

 

[Valena]

I'm thinking about Marie Louise d'Orleans going to Lisbon - since she already has connections at the Iberian Peninsula, she may be useful in the Iberian policy.
In fact, I'm thinking I'll use this plot in my TL - with Carlos dead in January 1684, before Anne Marie married to Savoy OTL; but with personal life of Maria Antonia being roughly the same it was with Max of Bavaria, and the descendants of Margaret Theresa of Spain going extinct in 1699, so the War of Spanish Succession still happens - but with bonus of Spain being under competent rule in personal union with Savoy for 15 years, and Victor Amadeus being used to the seat of King-Consort/Regent.

 

[Valena]

Sophie of Neuburg may end up the Electress of Bavaria in this situation. Re. Marianna, I honestly don't know what to do with her, except for Farnese/Polish match her sisters got OTL

 

[Valena]

In 1683 King Afonso VI and Queen Maria Francisca died. In the court there was a strong «French party», headed by the Duke of Cadaval, the then Count of Vila Maior and by the Viscount of Ponte de Lima, but others favored a closer alliance with Spain.

Marie Louise as Queen of Portugal satisfies BOTH of these parties, and there may be even additional support from Britain, as she's the niece of Charles II.
It would be ironic if BOTH wives of Pedro II are "second hand" from impotent Kings.

 

[isabella]

Marie Louise as Queen of Portugal satisfies BOTH of these parties, and there may be even additional support from Britain, as she's the niece of Charles II.
It would be ironic if BOTH wives of Pedro II are "second hand" from impotent Kings.

Marie Louise in Portugal, Anne Marie in Savoy as OTL and a second son from some german or italian state for Maria Antonia

 

[Valena]

Marie Louise in Portugal, Anne Marie in Savoy as OTL and a second son from some german or italian state for Maria Antonia

So, either Charles Philip of Neuburg or Gian Gastone de' Medici for King Consort of Spain, Charles being more preferable, but him having OTL issue at least from the first marriage being important to my later TL plans.
Or an obscurity in person of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludwig_Anton_von_Pfalz-Neuburg if I want Charles Philip to have OTL first marriage...hmmm...

 

[isabella]

So, either Charles Philip of Neuburg or Gian Gastone de' Medici for King Consort of Spain, Charles being more preferable, but him having OTL issue at least from the first marriage being important to my later TL plans.
Or an obscurity in person of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludwig_Anton_von_Pfalz-Neuburg if I want Charles Philip to have OTL first marriage...hmmm...

The Neuburgs have a little too much siblings for being the favorite candidates for me...
Gian Gastone instead is interesting specially if his older brother had no issue as OTL...

 

[Valena]

Gian Gastone instead is interesting specially if his older brother had no issue as OTL...

If Gian Gastone is selected as Prince-Consort of Spain (unless it runs in the same issues as the similar Portuguese offer for him - by the way, TTL, if Pedro II remarries earlier, Isabel Luisa is nothing special and can be married abroad), his father may decide he wants different/grander match for his son&heir - after all, TTL Gian Gastone will be marrying in 1685 or 1686. A Neuburg lady is a possibility.
In fact that is even more interesting than Savoy-Spain PU and thus butterflying French royal family as we know it (bad thing for long term planning).

 

[isabella]

If Gian Gastone is selected as Prince-Consort of Spain (unless it runs in the same issues as the similar Portuguese offer for him - by the way, TTL, if Pedro II remarries earlier, Isabel Luisa is nothing special and can be married abroad), his father may decide he wants different/grander match for his son&heir - after all, TTL Gian Gastone will be marrying in 1685 or 1686. A Neuburg lady is a possibility.
In fact that is even more interesting than Savoy-Spain PU and thus butterflying French royal family as we know it (bad thing for long term planning).

A Neuburg lady is no way a better match than the Bavarian princess, who was much well connected and one of the most sought brides of the time (she was the younger and only sister of the Dauphine of France and her grandmothers were an Austrian archduchess and a French princess). The problem in that match was the groom and that will not change with any bride...

Maria Antonia's kids will likely butterflying many Imperial and French matches but at least that will not be forced

 

[Valena]

Maria Antonia's kids

By the way, would she have odds of better obstetric history with different/less related husband (Gian Gastone is a very distant cousin, unlike Maximilian, who is second cousin of her)? Last common ancestor in this case is Charles II of Inner Austria, not Ferdinand II. Though that's just one degree of relation less (third cousin instead of second cousin).

 

[Valena]

Gian Gastone would be crowned as King Consort as Philip the Handsome was? I think since they were using Castilian numbering for the kings, he'll be Juan III.

 

[JonasResende]

By the way, would she have odds of better obstetric history with different/less related husband (Gian Gastone is a very distant cousin, unlike Maximilian, who is second cousin of her)? Last common ancestor in this case is Charles II of Inner Austria, not Ferdinand II. Though that's just one degree of relation less (third cousin instead of second cousin).

It's quite possible. Maria Antonia's problem seems to have been that much like her mom she was almost perpetually pregnant - I haven't got the dates at hand right now, but there were at least 4 miscarriages, one stillbirth and then the 3 live births between her marriage and death. Giovan' Gastone might not be so assiduous in his fulfilling of marital duties (especially if the first kid is a son who survives). So she might have a bit more breathing room - basically it would apply to any husband (barring someone who's first cousin/uncle/half-cousin) I imagine.

Obstetric record of Maria Antonia:

• Miscarriage in 1687
• Miscarriage in 1688
• Leopold Ferdinand in 1689
• Anton in 1690
• Miscarriage in 1691
• Josef Ferdinand Leopold in 1692

Afraid I can't narrow the miscarriages down to specific dates or at least months, and I misremembered the stillbirth (unless Anton who was born and died on the same day) is counted as such.

And Giovan' Gastone would only be allowed the royal style (if I'm not mistaken) if he and Maria Antonia have a kid. Otherwise, no dice. Philipp the Handsome was the father of a few kids by the time Juana became queen; Giovan' Gastone (Juan Gastón) will be simply prince consort until Maria Antonia has a child. But I would be interested to see a Medici Spain.

 

[JonasResende]

I'm not sure that the marriage would be harmonious though. GG might decide he wants to stay in (or go back to) Italy. Maria Antonia reminded her OTL husband at every turn that she was more important than him (think Anna Pavlovna-Willem II), and that he needed her, basically, not the other way around. However, she loved the theatre and music (so she'd get on very well with Ferdinandino and GG there), was pious (so she'd be good enough for Cosimo) however, not slavishly so in the manner of the Spanish court. And besides her arrogance towards her husband on the subject of rank, she was reportedly a very gentle and kind person.

 

[isabella]

I'm not sure that the marriage would be harmonious though. GG might decide he wants to stay in (or go back to) Italy. Maria Antonia reminded her OTL husband at every turn that she was more important than him (think Anna Pavlovna-Willem II), and that he needed her, basically, not the other way around. However, she loved the theatre and music (so she'd get on very well with Ferdinandino and GG there), was pious (so she'd be good enough for Cosimo) however, not slavishly so in the manner of the Spanish court. And besides her arrogance towards her husband on the subject of rank, she was reportedly a very gentle and kind person.

Well, I can not see Gian Gastone running back to Italy because Spain surely will not be dull and Maria Antonia will be unlikely to be insufferable (and I do not think who in her own kingdom, away from her father and with a husband who can only agree with her, she will try to pull the rank) and if he tried Cosimo will promptly send him back to Spain... A lively and important court and a bride tolerable will ber enough for keep Gian Gastone busy and satisfied away from Florence.

A Medici Spain would be great and the same for an Italy almost entirely uinder their control (just Savoy, Modena, Massa, Parma and the papal states are excluded)

 

[Valena]

Hmmm. I think I'll be using this for my "Fortunes" project - gives the necessary context for TTL Nine Years War, as Louis XIV would without doubt aim for Devolution War 2.0, however BS it is from the legal PoV.

 

[Vladivostock]

Sorry for bringing back this old thread but this really interests me...

If Gian Gastone and Maria Antonia do get married they might get along but Gian was known particularly for his homosexual tendencies and his constant melancholy so that doesn't work in their favour, while Maria Antonia, like an earlier poster already mentioned, did always rub her rank in Maximilian's face. Btw he was an Elector, while Gian was just a second son of a cash-strapped duke with a duchy rotting away...
And besides, Cosimo III refused the marriage plans with both French and Portuguese princesses, mostly because his son would end up in a foreign court which could be used to influence the Grand Duke himself and because he would have to give his son s much bigger allowance and he just refused. So the situation isn't that much different except for the fact that Maria now actually is a queen and Isabel Luisa of Portugal was only an heiress apparent. But still, can anyone be sure he'd go for it, spend huge sums on his second son and eventually risk his Duchy ending up completely in Spanish hands?

Other possible candidates could be Odoardo Farnese and one of the Neuburg counts. Farnese too was the heir of Parma and would probably have to leave for Spain, but I think his rank is high enough. Not sure about the financial part, though . As for the Neuburgs, there were plenty of of younger sons so I don't see how to choose exactly

Oh and one more possible husband, Joseph Clemes of Bavaria, OTL Archbishop-Elector. Like all other highest nobility in the Church he never took the holy order, hoping he would one day perhaps rule himself. And there were talks about him marrying an Orleans princess but it didn't work. He is two years younger than Maria, but fits all the criteria and specifically, marrying him would ensure the Prince consort can accompany the Queen while preventing a union with another possession

 

[isabella]

Antonia being already queen of Spain (and having the almost absolute certainty of being the next Queen before that) is a totally different situation from Isabel Luisa (she had not the best health and her inheritance was tied to her mother’s life: if she died and her father remarried and had a son as happened OTL she would not be the heiress anymore).
Cosimo refuted to take in consideration a French match for any of his children because his wife was French and their wedding was a disaster.

Farnese is an odd choice and was the only who had a better claim on Portugal than the Braganza so he would be a strange (and too much dangerous) choice...

I do not think Antonia would be happy to be married off to one of the brothers of her stepmother...

So Gian Gastone de’ Medici, Joseph Clemens of Bavaria or Victor Amedeus of Savoy (if he had not already married Anne Marie of Orleans) are the only realistic alternatives to her OTL match

 

[Vladivostock]

Antonia being already queen of Spain (and having the almost absolute certainty of being the next Queen before that) is a totally different situation from Isabel Luisa (she had not the best health and her inheritance was tied to her mother’s life: if she died and her father remarried and had a son as happened OTL she would not be the heiress anymore).
Cosimo refuted to take in consideration a French match for any of his children because his wife was French and their wedding was a disaster.

Farnese is an odd choice and was the only who had a better claim on Portugal than the Braganza so he would be a strange (and too much dangerous) choice...

I do not think Antonia would be happy to be married off to one of the brothers of her stepmother...

So Gian Gastone de’ Medici, Joseph Clemens of Bavaria or Victor Amedeus of Savoy (if he had not already married Anne Marie of Orleans) are the only realistic alternatives to her OTL match

Thanks for the explanations.

Kinda derailing the thread but what would have happened had Carlos died after Maria's married to Max Emanuel? Would he follow her to Madrid? Any role in the government?

 

[JonasResende]

And besides, Cosimo III refused the marriage plans with both French and Portuguese princesses, mostly because his son would end up in a foreign court which could be used to influence the Grand Duke himself and because he would have to give his son s much bigger allowance and he just refused. So the situation isn't that much different except for the fact that Maria now actually is a queen and Isabel Luisa of Portugal was only an heiress apparent. But still, can anyone be sure he'd go for it, spend huge sums on his second son and eventually risk his Duchy ending up completely in Spanish hands?

Actually, Cosimo probably would. The reason he agreed to Giovan' Gastone's OTL marriage (if I remember Acton's book right) was because he wanted a cadet branch of the Medici to expand Medicean influence OUTSIDE Italy.

Him marrying Maria Antonia is a different kettle of fish to him having to sponsor his son to go live in Portugal. A Medici Portugal wouldn't necessarily happen (Pedro remarries - and the other reason it didn't was Cosimo wanted a double match of GG to Isabel and Anna Maria Ludovica to Pedro II, which the Portuguese refused because they feared she was like her mom), but a Medici Spain is a near certainty (as long as GG can knock the queen up, and the doctors don't bleed Maria to death or any of their other OTL shenanigans (like leeches in Queen Mariana of Neuburg's womb to aid conception)). As to him being gay, in Spain it'd be a one way trip to the stake (or whatever the Inquisition's punishment for sodomy and buggery were, so he'll bave to keep it under wraps. Plus, he's not going to resent the marriage (probably) as OTL, so he'd probably be able to manage at least ONE kid (or, be astute enough to pull a Francisco d'Asis to Maria's Isabel II - claim paternity of the kids, even though he might privately have doubts).