As the title says, I'm curious if Army Group A could've have reached the Turkish border with the USSR and forced the Soviets to scuttle the Black Sea Fleet. Obviously this implies Barbarossa stayed mostly the same during 1941, but feel free to use any POD you want. Finally, had this occurred, how would it have affected future fighting in the Caucasus and Ukraine, as well as Axis relations with Turkey?
Can Army Group A reach Batumi and destroy the Black Sea Fleet in 1942?
- Thread starter AbeLincoln1865
- Start date
Army Group A would need supply priority and all the air support B got in OTL as well. B would have to focus on strengthening the Don flank. If the latter collapses, A would be hard to extricate from deep in the Caucasus. If the operation goes well, the main benefits would be taking the oil of Baku soon or at least depriving the USSR of oil and lend leases via the Persian gulf. Also possibly scaring the British into abandoning the offensive at Alamein to bolster the defenses of Iran and Iraq. Not sure about Turkey.
Garrison
Donor
I don't see the British doing that, especially as I'm fairly sure they had already secured both those countries by this point. Also I'm pretty sure adding another 600km to the advance of Army Group B is a recipe for the collapse of their supply lines.
thaddeus
Donor
I'm always the one jumping up and down that the KM should have done more in the Baltic and Black Seas, that large evacuations of Soviet troops and materials were carried out during the early stages of Barbarossa, in the Black Sea at Odessa.
such speculative efforts would only help with capturing Crimea, Sevastopol though? once they are in the Caucasus reality sets in? u-boats and s-boats could have stymied Soviet fleet evacuations in the early stages but they cannot transport forces.
just IMO, you require Turkey in the Axis to capture Batumi and Baku, and that seems nearly impossible?
such speculative efforts would only help with capturing Crimea, Sevastopol though? once they are in the Caucasus reality sets in? u-boats and s-boats could have stymied Soviet fleet evacuations in the early stages but they cannot transport forces.
just IMO, you require Turkey in the Axis to capture Batumi and Baku, and that seems nearly impossible?
kham_coc
Banned
Completely controlling the black sea would presumably drastically improve local supply too.
Coulsdon Eagle
Monthly Donor
Assuming you have the transports & merchant shipping to supply vastly inflated (compared to OTL) numbers of land & air units. If the Turks stay neutral, then you may be restricted to Bulgarian & Romanian merchant fleets, plus what can be sent down the Danube. Not sure if Turkish neutrality would close the Straits to "merchant" shipping from Axis bases in Greece and those that can make it into the Aegean from Italy [Note - the Montreux Convention allowed merchant shipping to pass through the Straits in time of war if Turkey was neutral. Is a troop transport merchant shipping?]
I suppose while NOT carrying troops or their equipment the transport is a merchant vessel. Pick up the troops in a Bulgarian or Romanian port?
The distances are too great.
The way to get this done in 1942 would be a different Barbarossa where the Soviet Union collapses completely. You probably get the Black Sea fleet surrendered or scuttled anyway in this scenario, without the German army having to physically occupy the entire coast line. But, yes, then you can have German units reach the Turkish border in 1942 as part of the mopping up operations. The point is that as long as the Red Army is a cohesive force in 1942, it can block any advance in that area.
Though its much less likely, you can do this in 1943. Either the Germans win a huge battle for Moscow in 1942 and the Soviet Union collapses and you are back to the earlier scenario. Or they pull off a modified, better organized, Case Blue where in 1942 the Volga is secured (and Sevastopol taken) with no attempt to advance to the Caucasus, cutting the Caucasus and Black Sea off from the rest of the Soviet Union. Then in 1943 the Caucasus/ Black Sea is taken in another offensive. We will jump up and down and wave our hands to deal with the Allied attempts to stop this, including from British and American army and air units based out of Iran.
The way to get this done in 1942 would be a different Barbarossa where the Soviet Union collapses completely. You probably get the Black Sea fleet surrendered or scuttled anyway in this scenario, without the German army having to physically occupy the entire coast line. But, yes, then you can have German units reach the Turkish border in 1942 as part of the mopping up operations. The point is that as long as the Red Army is a cohesive force in 1942, it can block any advance in that area.
Though its much less likely, you can do this in 1943. Either the Germans win a huge battle for Moscow in 1942 and the Soviet Union collapses and you are back to the earlier scenario. Or they pull off a modified, better organized, Case Blue where in 1942 the Volga is secured (and Sevastopol taken) with no attempt to advance to the Caucasus, cutting the Caucasus and Black Sea off from the rest of the Soviet Union. Then in 1943 the Caucasus/ Black Sea is taken in another offensive. We will jump up and down and wave our hands to deal with the Allied attempts to stop this, including from British and American army and air units based out of Iran.
Osman Aga
Banned
Turkey is not going to join the war in any way. Turkey was just out of 11 years war between 1911 and 1923 and they were in the process of rebuilding after much destruction.
Ismet Inonu was smart enough to avoid it.
Osman Aga
Banned
You have better chances for the German Army to capture Leningrad and Moscow to secure the Caucasus indirectly, then let Turkey join and let them help you to secure the Caucasus. Turkish Military was in no state to fight an offensive war against the Soviets.
thaddeus
Donor
largely agree with you, although my speculation is only for Turkey to allow German forces to operate in their country. my understanding the failure of the Iraqi coup and British seizure of Vichy Syria in quick succession made a huge impression on the Turks? (so you would need to butterfly away those events at a minimum)
the most realistic way to force Turkey into the war would be a scenario similar to Finland, the Soviets attack them? Germany undermined that by opposing and/or stalling Soviet designs on Bulgaria and the Straits