Caesar is not assasinated, goes and invades Parthia.

[TaylorS]

Since I started reading a series of historical novels about the last century of the Roman Republic (by Colleen McCullough, great books) the "What if Caesar had not been assassinated" question has been gnawing at me. We know that his plans were to invade Parthia to avenge Crassus's cluster**** at Carrhae, he was killed just days before he was to set off for the campaign.



I start the ATL with Marcus Junius Brutus tattling to Caesar about the assassination plot rather than joining it. Which thus leads to the question of how Caesar would deal with the conspirators, which is a big deal with Caesar just days away from heading off to war. If he pardons them it is likely that they would try to stir up domestic trouble while Caesar was away. But if Caesar punishes them too harshly he would risk undermining his policy of clemency and his desire to not look like an oppressive tyrant.

Another issue is Mark Antony, who IIRC was supposed to stay in Italy to keep things in order while Caesar was over in the East. It is quite possible that he could "go rouge" on Caesar out of jealousy.

Octavian would be with Caesar in the East as a military legate.

The next question is the war with Parthia. Caesar being Caesar, one can easily assume that the Parthians will get their rear ends handed to them. On the other hand, Caesar at this time is in his late 50s, he's getting old.I would guess that Caesar does fairly well, but it's not an overwhelming victory. Rome annexes a part of Mesopotamia as a province and sets up a couple of client kingdoms as buffers between Rome and a reduced Parthian state.

And then what happens when he returns to Rome? What is the leadership of the aging Caesar like? What further reforms does he enact and how are they different from Octavian's in the OTL? What is happening in Egypt and what are Cleopatra and Caesarion doing?

Finally, what happens when Caesar finally dies (say, in 28 BC, aged 74)? Does Octavian simply take over? Does Mark Antony, who is getting quite old himself, try to fight Octavian over the control of Rome?

 

[Anaxagoras]

I agree that the Parthians are going to be in for a bad time. The preparations for Caesar's invasion were on a massive scale, indeed. I would expect to see the borders of the Republic extended to the Euphrates and perhaps down the to Persian Gulf.

IIRC, Caesar actually intended to return to Rome after defeating Parthia by going around the Black Sea to the north and conquering Dacia on the way back. I think this is rather too big a feat for even Caesar to pull off. Domestic troubles back in Rome are likely to require his presence back in the capital long before this can be done.

Assuming a long rule by Caesar, when he does finally die I would expect power to be transferred smoothly to Octavian.

 

[Pragmatic Progressive]

What if oil is discovered by the Romans in the now-Roman Persian Gulf (Iraq, Kuwait, Southern Iran, Qatar?)

 

[Anaxagoras]

What if oil is discovered by the Romans in the now-Roman Persian Gulf (Iraq, Kuwait, Southern Iran, Qatar?)

They would not bother with it, as it would be useless to them.

 

[TaylorS]

I think I will be starting a TL for this scenario this weekend.

I agree that the Parthians are going to be in for a bad time. The preparations for Caesar's invasion were on a massive scale, indeed. I would expect to see the borders of the Republic extended to the Euphrates and perhaps down the to Persian Gulf.

IIRC, Caesar actually intended to return to Rome after defeating Parthia by going around the Black Sea to the north and conquering Dacia on the way back. I think this is rather too big a feat for even Caesar to pull off. Domestic troubles back in Rome are likely to require his presence back in the capital long before this can be done.

Assuming a long rule by Caesar, when he does finally die I would expect power to be transferred smoothly to Octavian.

Thanks for the tidbit about going around the Black Sea, I never heard of that part.

 

[Elfwine]

A question. On a massive scale or not, does Caesar have the kind of army that can beat a Parthian cataphract-and-horse-archer force?

No matter how brilliantly lead, the infantry legions and light Gallic cavalry aren't the kind to do it.

 

[Sarantapechaina]

There was an excellent chance he'd have been diverted to Dacia before he even got to Parthia.

Also, don't underestimate Parthian power. Historically, in the early thirties they invaded with the aid of Labienus himself, wiped out the Syrian garrison, and had occupied much of Syria and the Levant before a near-miraculous series of victories by the Roman general P. Ventidius Bassus turned them around (killing the Parthian prince Pacorus and Labienus himself into the bargain at the Battle of Kyrrhestike).

 

[TaylorS]

There was an excellent chance he'd have been diverted to Dacia before he even got to Parthia.

Also, don't underestimate Parthian power. Historically, in the early thirties they invaded with the aid of Labienus himself, wiped out the Syrian garrison, and had occupied much of Syria and the Levant before a near-miraculous series of victories by the Roman general P. Ventidius Bassus turned them around (killing the Parthian prince Pacorus and Labienus himself into the bargain at the Battle of Kyrrhestike).

Very true. I actually just learned about that while reading the last book of the historical fiction series I mentioned in the OP. Apparently they expected horse archers, but the Parthians sent Cataphracts instead, but the Romans still won despite that.

 

[MattII]

So Caeser takes with him his own heir, while leaving in Rome a man who is an experienced general, but a poor manager otherwise? Seems a little out-of-whack for a man of Caeser's experience.

 

[TaylorS]

So Caeser takes with him his own heir, while leaving in Rome a man who is an experienced general, but a poor manager otherwise? Seems a little out-of-whack for a man of Caeser's experience.

Remember that Octavian is only 18 at this time, and it was normal for young aristocrats to serve as legates for proconsuls and propraetors. Caesar himself had developed some distrust of Antony after some shenanigans he pulled while Caesar was in Egypt, but apparently he still trusted Antony enough.

 

[MattII]

Caesar himself had developed some distrust of Antony after some shenanigans he pulled while Caesar was in Egypt, but apparently he still trusted Antony enough.

Man was still a much better general than a politician.

 

[Alex1guy]

Man was still a much better general than a politician.

Haha and he still lost out to Octavian

 

[Don_Giorgio]

The main question is would Caesar lived long enough to wage war in Parthia? By 45-44 BC he was around 56 years old... What would happen if he died while on campaign?

Besides that how can we be sure that Caesar wont end up with a knife in his back? His "autocratic" profile had alienated the Senate...

 

[MattII]

Well since most of the conspiring senators are now probably dead (remember Caeser finds out about the plot)...

 

[Don_Giorgio]

Well since most of the conspiring senators are now probably dead (remember Caeser finds out about the plot)...

That doesnt prevent another conspiracy from remaining Senators... But anyway the main problem would be Caesar's age and health...

 

[Mikestone8]

Parthians avoid battle (maybe after one bad experience) and use scorched earth tactics. Campaign spun out until Caesar succumbs to age or infirmity. His successor either pulls back to Euphrates or else gets what Crassus got.

 

[MattII]

Augustus then orders a complete reorganisation of the military, making it much better at combined arms attacks.

 

[Pachac]

Augustus then orders a complete reorganisation of the military, making it much better at combined arms attacks.

And then he fails against infantry troops?

 

[Easterling]

And what about the Dacian campaign? Even if Burebista dies on schedule and his kingdom colapses, Dacia still has the potential to turn into another Gaul, with hostilities flaring up even after the initial conquest, and this may delay Caesar's plans about Parthia, or even derail them completely.

 

[TaylorS]

1. A Plot Exposed
​

...but if the "Liberators", as they called themselves, were to gain popular support after the deed was done they would need at least a few members with a name associated with liberation from tyrants to have popular support. Decimus Brutus was already part of the plot, but they really needed Marcus Junius Brutus, who not only claimed descent from the Brutus who overthrew Tarquin, but also Ahala, who stopped a coup in the the early Republic. Brutus was told of the conspiracy to assassinate Caesar by Gaius Trebonius and Gaius Cassius Longinus, but refused. The conspirators attempted to presure him into joining by writing graffiti admonishing him to his duty to "kill the tyrant" like his ancestors did.

Brutus, outraged by this intimidation campaign, revealed the plot to Caesar, who called an emergency meeting of the Senate, and this time taking his lictors, reversing his earlier policy of not using them out of concern that they contributed to a tyrannical image. Caesar then mentioned the plot, though not mentioning it was Brutus that told him so as to protect Brutus from being retaliation, and rebuked the conspirators for wanting him dead after he had given many of them clemency. Caesar then warned them that if there were another attempt on his life the instigators would be brought up on treason charges in the courts. Lucius Tilius Cimber, one of the conspirators, then accused Caesar of weakness, saying that he was too afraid to kill them. Caesar retorted in response "You think I am new Sulla, one who is worse than the old Sulla, but I am not Sulla, I am Caesar. I will not do proscriptions, I will not have Rome suffer through another reign of terror. In a week I head for the East for the Parthian campaign and Antonius will remain in Rome to make sure there is no more of this nonsense while I am away. That is all."

That evening the outed conspirators met at the home of Trebonius to pick of the pieces and regroup. If they could not kill Caesar, they would do as much as they could to interfere with the working of the regime while he was away. Even, perhaps, convince Antony to turn on Caesar. Antony's mismanagement while Caesar was in Egypt, leading to a mutiny of 2 of Caesar's legions, had already strained relations between the two, and Antony felt crushed under Caesar's shadow. If they could turn Antony, the conspirators surmised, they had a chance.

On March 16th 44 BC, Caesar left Rome for Parthia. With him as a legate was his eighteen-year-old nephew Gaius Octavius. Antony was in Rome, and the "Liberators" were lying low. The discovery of the conspiracy left a pall of unease over the city, and many worried what would happen while Caesar was away.