Cárdenas won in 1988: A Mexican ATL

[Plumber]

The dialogues on when to implement it are from way before that.

I know, but I'd think he'd scuttle it. Then again, Chretien never did after he promised to.

 

[wilcoxchar]

Great to see another update!

How are you going to deal with the drug war?

Maybe this butterflies away Mexico's drug violence getting worse, IMO.

What happens with the drug war is going to be interesting. Some factors that led to increased violence were related to the fall of the PRI, such as the end of the implied government-cartel agreement to keep violence down in exchange for lax enforcement, and new parties in power simply meaning that the same corrupt officials weren't there anymore. But I don't know much about the state of the cartels in the 1980s, so I don't know how much their structure changed between 1988 and 2000. There will definitely be some changes in the US response to a drug war in Mexico, with NAFTA not being in force yet and the Colombian cartels still being powerful.

 

[OhYesIdid]

¡Chingón! Oye, ¿qué opinas tú de AMLO?
Según yo, la mayoría de los medios e intelectuales de izquierda hoy en día acusan a Calderón de haber pactado con el narco (posiblemente el Cártel de Sinaloa) y señalan esta guerra como una lucha por el control de vías de distribución. Tú vives en Tijuana (que era la Juárez de antes, ¿no?), ¿qué opinas de tales acusaciones? No te pregunto qué papel jugará el narco ATL para no arruinar la sorpresa.
Insisto, está chingón.

 

[Vault boy]

I know, but I'd think he'd scuttle it. Then again, Chretien never did after he promised to.

Cárdenas wanted to renegotiate the parts related to agricultural exports. The rest of the deal was good enough for all of the parts involved, in spite of the fact it felt too rushed.
As far as I can remember, he didn't wanted to scuttle it, since he thought that the whole thing would benefit Mexico in the long run, but given the fact that it is unlikely that said part would never be re-negotiated, the best thing they could do is heavy investment in the agrarian sector to make it less painful for the small and medium corn farmers. This will impact the per-capita consumption of beef, since this factor increased after the NAFTA.

Great to see another update!

What happens with the drug war is going to be interesting. Some factors that led to increased violence were related to the fall of the PRI, such as the end of the implied government-cartel agreement to keep violence down in exchange for lax enforcement, and new parties in power simply meaning that the same corrupt officials weren't there anymore. But I don't know much about the state of the cartels in the 1980s, so I don't know how much their structure changed between 1988 and 2000. There will definitely be some changes in the US response to a drug war in Mexico, with NAFTA not being in force yet and the Colombian cartels still being powerful.

Thanks!
As you saw above, the detention of the top brass of the SNTE was part of the first waves of housecleaning, with the aim of getting rid of most of the corrupt elements that have ruined the national structure since then.
Later on, there's going to be a clearance on the federal police and in the Senate. This will affect the 1994 elections, and may weaken the PRI even further, and will affect Televisa's credibility.
And yes, this will lead to a drug war which may start earlier, maybe since 1995, depending on who wins the 1994 election.
And about the cartels, they were somewhat-unified by El Padrino, which then divided them to his cronies, and with that we got the current situation. Before that, most of the troubles with drugs happened during the 1960's with illegal opium farming in Sinaloa and Durango, but that was dealt with during that decade without much fuss. And as for gov't-cartel collaboration, this is evident in some parts of the country where there's still the gerrymandering tactics and dirty politics.

¡Chingón! Oye, ¿qué opinas tú de AMLO?
Según yo, la mayoría de los medios e intelectuales de izquierda hoy en día acusan a Calderón de haber pactado con el narco (posiblemente el Cártel de Sinaloa) y señalan esta guerra como una lucha por el control de vías de distribución. Tú vives en Tijuana (que era la Juárez de antes, ¿no?), ¿qué opinas de tales acusaciones? No te pregunto qué papel jugará el narco ATL para no arruinar la sorpresa.
Insisto, está chingón.

Muy interesantes preguntas. (People out there, copypaste this on your favourite translator...)
Sobre el Peje, él ha madurado como político; ya no actúa como un niño malcriado. Sin embargo, no le está yendo bien en las encuestas de popularidad que han estado haciendo últimamente. La neta quisiera que ganara la presidencia (aunque la neta, la política aquí me causa una reacción muy predecible).
Ahora, sobre la guerra: por desgracia, la guerra fue inevitable debido a que los presidentes anteriores actuaron demasiado tarde, o no atacaron el problema a largo plazo, y le dejaron a Calderón con un desmadre que se debía de hacer a la de a huevo. El "apoyo" parece eso, pero en realidad no. También ocurren enfrentamientos entre la policía/ejército y el cártel de Sinaloa (y lo sé porque fuí a Mazatlán en verano, y casi nos agarra una balacera a un primo y a mí), pero ahorita se están lanzando contra los demás por cuestiones de estrategia.
Y muchas gracias por leerlo.

Another great update, Vault-boy.

The way you describe education in Mexico sounds somewhat similar to here in the US, so by making additional investment there Cárdenas is defintely going t make a huge impact. I wonder, though - is it possible for the IMSS and the ISSSTE to merge in TTL, or would that just be ASB?

Thanks!
About the U.S. education and Mexican education, there are some things that are similar, and some are very different. I've had friends who lived and studied junior high or high school in San Diego, and many subjects are taught at very different years.
And as for the IMSS and the ISSSTE, they will stay that way as for now. But maybe the IMSS is going to have some minor splits which will focus on very different aspects of social healthcare to alleviate the current bureaucratic mess it is right now.

How are you going to deal with the drug war?

Maybe this butterflies away Mexico's drug violence getting worse, IMO.

It will still happen, and it's more likely it will happen earlier than OTL.

 

[OhYesIdid]

Genial. Ya que toqué el tema, ¿Qué crees que haga AMLO sobre el narco? Me temo que una "república amorosa" sea blanco fácil para los carteles de la droga, pero me imagino que veré tu opinión cuando le pase a tu Cárdenas.

 

[Dan1988]

Thanks!

De nada/Vous êtes bienvenue. Always a pleasure.

About the U.S. education and Mexican education, there are some things that are similar, and some are very different. I've had friends who lived and studied junior high or high school in San Diego, and many subjects are taught at very different years.

That's understandable - it's seems to be that way all over North America. And then there's Québec's system, where after Grade 11 everyone goes to Cégep (college) before either going to university or entering the job market. It's an ingenious idea, if you ask me.

And as for the IMSS and the ISSSTE, they will stay that way as for now. But maybe the IMSS is going to have some minor splits which will focus on very different aspects of social healthcare to alleviate the current bureaucratic mess it is right now.

Hmm, I guess that makes sense. I was thinking that an IMSS-ISSSTE merger - probably from a non-Mexican POV - makes sense as that means having a central social security agency rather than having a morass of different public agencies which would waste a lot of money (cf. Argentina's obras sociales). But I guess that's just me.

 

[Fabius Cunctator]

Interesting, subscribing.

I think no change in NAFTA is a good way to go, you avoid a lot of economic butterflies and appearing to go ASB and having to infer the implications for a Mexican economy without NAFTA.

Despite Cardenas not strongly supporting NAFTA in 1992, you could simply have it be rushed by a nervous PRI earlier in the timeline, for example.

Cardenas 1992 view of NAFTA: http://news.stanford.edu/pr/92/920226Arc2398.html

Instead you can focus on the political implications of an earlier removal of the PRI and by a left of center candidate rather than by a right of center candidate.

For example, you have had the teachers' union leadership sacked rather than co-opted for reform, will there still be a reform of the system of inheriting teaching positions and will there be more educational reforms, and how will the teacher's union react? Does the left have more popularity and or perceived moral legitimacy to institute reforms with support from voters and civil society, and can the union workers be pacified? What about political reforms about run-offs and/or 1 re-election? Tax-reform to spend more on education and parent involvment in the school and such programs as opportunidades?

Reforms issues aside, will Cardenas be cautious with the economy? How will the 1994 peso crisis affect him or be avoided, as democracy may bring more openness sooner, so maybe instead of Carlos Salinas pushing problems under the rug and keeping interest rates low and spending high and keeping the peso within its narrow band while actually running out of foreign reserves and sparking capital flight, instead maybe Cardenas will be more open about the economy sooner and take advise quicker (without fearing that the mighty PRI's continuity in electoral victories will be affected by an earlier milder recession) and he may not risk a crisis by keeping the economy from adjusting more calmly and sooner...

Will earlier Democracy and ouster of the PRI also help avoid the issues of Colosio's assassination and the Zapatista uprising?

Ok, sorry, I've said enough in my turn to post, but you are looking at a lot of interesting issues between 1988 and 1994, as there were a lot of changes by the PRI to return to higher growth than in the 1980's and yet their old decrepit politically corrupt system still needed so much more reform... The changes could be mean greater stability depending on Cardenas simply not being as terrible as the PRI under Salinas.

 

[Dan1988]

Instead you can focus on the political implications of an earlier removal of the PRI and by a left of center candidate rather than by a right of center candidate.

I think that's what Vault boy is doing.

Does the left have more popularity and or perceived moral legitimacy to institute reforms with support from voters and civil society, and can the union workers be pacified? What about political reforms about run-offs and/or 1 re-election? Tax-reform to spend more on education and parent involvment in the school and such programs as opportunidades?

Reforms issues aside, will Cardenas be cautious with the economy? How will the 1994 peso crisis affect him or be avoided, as democracy may bring more openness sooner, so maybe instead of Carlos Salinas pushing problems under the rug and keeping interest rates low and spending high and keeping the peso within its narrow band while actually running out of foreign reserves and sparking capital flight, instead maybe Cardenas will be more open about the economy sooner and take advise quicker (without fearing that the mighty PRI's continuity in electoral victories will be affected by an earlier milder recession) and he may not risk a crisis by keeping the economy from adjusting more calmly and sooner...

Hmm, those are some interesting ideas regarding the economy. One of the suggestions I had made to him were to be huge changes in the broadcast media - in particular, Imévision not privatized into TV Azteca but instead remain in state hands and thus gets massively reformed into a Mexican BBC (partially accomplished by merging it with IMER), setting up an interesting situation including an earlier rollout of Imévision's and Televisa's national channels than OTL (Vault boy gave the example of how originally there was just the one Televisa local channel from Tijuana until well in the 1990s whe Televisa felt it a good idea to add in the relays of México City stations) - which I, as a broadcasting enthusiast, think would've been the better way forward for Imévision.

Will earlier Democracy and ouster of the PRI also help avoid the issues of Colosio's assassination and the Zapatista uprising?

Ah, yes, the Zapatistas - hmm, now my ignorance of Mexican politics begins to show. Maybe in TTL some of the greivances the Zapatistas mentioned in OTL are addressed earlier, thereby helping to preëmpt somthing like the EZLN. Which is what I would hope he would do.

 

[Vault boy]

Interesting, subscribing.

I think no change in NAFTA is a good way to go, you avoid a lot of economic butterflies and appearing to go ASB and having to infer the implications for a Mexican economy without NAFTA.

Despite Cardenas not strongly supporting NAFTA in 1992, you could simply have it be rushed by a nervous PRI earlier in the timeline, for example.

Cardenas 1992 view of NAFTA: http://news.stanford.edu/pr/92/920226Arc2398.html

Instead you can focus on the political implications of an earlier removal of the PRI and by a left of center candidate rather than by a right of center candidate.

Thanks for the subscribe and the info! As for the rushed NAFTA, indeed, the issue is going to be pressed forward by a more nervous PRI. Th

For example, you have had the teachers' union leadership sacked rather than co-opted for reform, will there still be a reform of the system of inheriting teaching positions and will there be more educational reforms, and how will the teacher's union react? Does the left have more popularity and or perceived moral legitimacy to institute reforms with support from voters and civil society, and can the union workers be pacified? What about political reforms about run-offs and/or 1 re-election? Tax-reform to spend more on education and parent involvment in the school and such programs as opportunidades?

The SNTE hardliners had to be sacked in order to have someone that would be more willing to make compromises, instead of the corrupt and autocratic hardliners like Jongitud and Gordillo.
Said structures of inheriting positions are going to be dismantled as soon as possible, to allow more competent teachers instead of the many illiterate numbnuts who get there because daddy/mommy gave them their position as a parting gift. They'll have to deal with it or deal with the guys in blue; same goes to the other ones. And this is going to be a huge boost in popularity, considering how hated the SNTE is. So, as long as SNTE's influence gets curbed by reforms and whatnot, people will be happy.
(and as I mentioned earlier in this timeline, my grand-aunt -Rest in peace- was a teacher, and so are three of my aunts and two of my uncles. So I have some knowledge on how much the current system sucks)
Political reforms will come around 1992, which will be after the mid-term elections are over. But before that, there is going to be the creation of a similar organization to the IFE somewhere around 1989-1990, following on the example of the elections in Baja California (still asking my parents how it went in these; all I know is that the PAN won by a decent margin, but that's it); the first had an external organism watching over the electoral process AFAIK.

Reforms issues aside, will Cardenas be cautious with the economy? How will the 1994 peso crisis affect him or be avoided, as democracy may bring more openness sooner, so maybe instead of Carlos Salinas pushing problems under the rug and keeping interest rates low and spending high and keeping the peso within its narrow band while actually running out of foreign reserves and sparking capital flight, instead maybe Cardenas will be more open about the economy sooner and take advise quicker (without fearing that the mighty PRI's continuity in electoral victories will be affected by an earlier milder recession) and he may not risk a crisis by keeping the economy from adjusting more calmly and sooner...

There will be a recession, but it won't be as bad as the one we had in 1994-1995. Spending is going to be a bit more controlled, with most of it going into improving the life standard in impoverished areas and scaling back on the super-salaries the government officers get.

Will earlier Democracy and ouster of the PRI also help avoid the issues of Colosio's assassination and the Zapatista uprising?

Ah, yes, the Zapatistas - hmm, now my ignorance of Mexican politics begins to show. Maybe in TTL some of the greivances the Zapatistas mentioned in OTL are addressed earlier, thereby helping to preëmpt somthing like the EZLN. Which is what I would hope he would do.

The Zapatista grievances had to do with the fact the agrarian economy was lagging, and Salinas did nothing about it; and since Salinas didn't wanted to hear them through words, they opted to make him hear through steel.
As for Colosio's murder, it might be butterflied away. Still haven't thought about it.

Ok, sorry, I've said enough in my turn to post, but you are looking at a lot of interesting issues between 1988 and 1994, as there were a lot of changes by the PRI to return to higher growth than in the 1980's and yet their old decrepit politically corrupt system still needed so much more reform... The changes could be mean greater stability depending on Cardenas simply not being as terrible as the PRI under Salinas.

It will "democratize" like it did during Zedillo's presidency in the early 90's, but it will backfire horribly on them. It will make PRD's pseudo-rupture in the late 2000's look like a backyard brawl.

One of the suggestions I had made to him were to be huge changes in the broadcast media - in particular, Imévision not privatized into TV Azteca but instead remain in state hands and thus gets massively reformed into a Mexican BBC (partially accomplished by merging it with IMER), setting up an interesting situation including an earlier rollout of Imévision's and Televisa's national channels than OTL (Vault boy gave the example of how originally there was just the one Televisa local channel from Tijuana until well in the 1990s whe Televisa felt it a good idea to add in the relays of México City stations) - which I, as a broadcasting enthusiast, think would've been the better way forward for Imévision.

Ah, this thread... (I keep it at hand because it's what inspired me to write this on the first place)

And while we're talking about Televisa, I have plans for them... you'll see...

 

[Dan1988]

The Zapatista grievances had to do with the fact the agrarian economy was lagging, and Salinas did nothing about it; and since Salinas didn't wanted to hear them through words, they opted to make him hear through steel.

Makes sense. So would the PRD's programme help to stall any TTL variation of the Zapatista movement, or is that asking for too much?

Ah, this thread... (I keep it at hand because it's what inspired me to write this on the first place)

Of course, that thread. After I wrote all that down, I was thinking - "hey, I've got a bunch of TL projects I'm working on; maybe I could use variations of the same idea for the other TL projects" - so I'd probably do that as well because the way each of those three *IMER TV channels was segmented is somewhat similar to how I like it in reality.

And while we're talking about Televisa, I have plans for them... you'll see...

Well, I know you mentioned the Senda de Gloria fracas, but I wonder what else is in store. Will it get broken up? If it does à la Bell System, things are going to get very interesting pretty fast - probably provide the breakthrough that certain other networks could need.

Another idea I have: another option for breaking the Televisa monopoly, apart from the recreation of the IMER as a Mexican BBC, would be to create something akin to a British ITV, Canadian CTV (before Baton basically bought out the system completely), or Colombian Canal Uno. Say the government decides (similar to Canada's experience back in the '60s) to begin licensing "third channels" in major metro areas, as well as additional "programadoras" for national programming. It could also be possible to have a secondary network complementing the main "third channel" system à la Channel 4 in the UK. Coördination of the "third channel" system (plus regional commercial radio) would be through an Autoridad Independiente del Radiodifusión y Televisión (Independent Broadcasting and Television Authority), which is privately-run but ultimately accountable to the SCT. I can go into detail, if you want. So, in effect, this system would be an alternate TTL version to OTL's cadenatres.

 

[Vault boy]

Yeah, another update. The whole thing took a while to conceive, due to the fact I've been busy with a lot of crap I have to deal with, final semester of my college career and stuff and some rather intense stuff that happens right now with my life. (which includes balancing graduation duties, school forcing community service upon me, trying to learn how to play the bass, job hunting, and possibly getting a girlfriend )

Anyway, enjoy it while it lasts:

===========================================​

April-May 1989​

“El Padrino” operated under the wing of the Mexican intelligence agencies and the rampant corruption of the late 1970 and early 1980’s decade. This fact was backed up by the many dossiers in power of the National Intelligence Agency that showed every moved that this man did, yet they did nothing to apprehend him over these years. However, with the fallout between the PRI-backed Mexican Government and the many organizations under the command of this illustrious character, the only question was “When will they capture him?”
A plan had been established since last year by De La Madrid, however, it would be Cárdenas the one who would reap the benefits of the scheme. In April 8, 1989, the notorious master of the Guadalajara Cartel was detained. However, the pieces were already set in such a way that his capture had no relevance at all for the drug business in Mexico.
Drug Wars in Mexico, part 2. (July 2002) Colegio de la Frontera Norte.[1]

Six policemen were murdered in Culiacán, Sinaloa, in an alleged act of reprisal over the capture of El Padrino.
Note on El Debate; Culiacán, Sinaloa. (April 12, 1989)

The problem with Telmex was, that as a government company, most transactions needed approval by the Hacienda secretariat. And due to this, most problems were assigned to bureaucrats who didn’t know who to send the constant influx of problems that afflicted the company.
A plan was pitched forward by Hacienda to divide the company into several parts, which would be sold independently. To ensure equal pricing and prevent irregularities, the Comisión Federal de Telecomunicaciones was created to address any and all kinds of complaints in regards of telephone services. All of these phone companies that were created in place of TELMEX were to comply with the laws established by the COFETEL to ensure equal prices and making sure the same standards are used all over the country.
“History of Telecomunications in Mexico”. Extracted from COFETEL’s website, September 3, 2008

Suddenly, I remember watching those guys running towards some other guy in the street. They tackled him, and started to beat the shit out of him with the pistol handles, until he ended up as a bloody pulp. Then, they opened fire against him. He received six shots in the chest. They were claiming that that’s what happens when you don’t pay your “taxes”. I highly doubt that poor guy even knew about what the heck came onto him, as he was crying for help, and was telling them that he knew ni madres about what the fuck they were talking about. Fuck them, I’m out of here. I can’t do business with those pendejos running around with their guns, scaring my clients.
A. Sánchez, store owner in Mazatlán, Sinaloa, describing an execution. He left the country a few days after the incident. [2]

“The first electoral race began in Baja California, with only two strong candidates: Ernesto Ruffo Appel for PAN, and Margarita Ortega Villa for PRI as the two strongest candidates.”
Ernesto Ruffo Appel began his campaign in Ensenada, his home city, in which, in front of a large crowd, he addressed them on bringing jobs to Baja California, and improving the basic services of the population. Margarita Ortega pledges to increase jobs and improve the state’s road infrastructure.
From semanario Zeta, April 14 to 20. [3]

Con Acciones como estas, ¡el gobierno invierte en tu future!
With Actions like these, The government Invests in your Future!
Ads running on Imevisión Canal 7, talking about the benefits of free education and

With Telmex being sold, the government was in a strange conundrum regarding the handling of the state’s television company. On one hand, selling it would bring more funding onto the government, but without it, it would lack any kind of leverage it would have against Televisa group or MVS, the two private television networks in Mexico. The solution came by when trying to figure out the models used by the BBC in the United Kingdom and KPBS in the United States. These networks were seen as a standard to strive for in regards of content for all ages.
At the end of the day the “rescuers” of the state network were CONACYT, SITATYR as a whole, and finally IMER [4], who was willing to give up some of its infrastructure and experience onto upgrading the network’s capabilities. All of this, with the President apparently giving them a carte blanche to do the acquisition. This came at a cost, since the latter had to shelve its shortwave radio broadcast service.
GARZA GARZA, C. “Imevisión: A Mexican BBC?” Article submitted at ITESM Monterrey Campus newspaper on October 1990.

“Grupo Cablevisión requests a piece of Telmex”
“Proposal blocked by Hacienda as it lacked the required assets to acquire Mexico’s central node and put it back on operation.”
Headline from Reforma’s economy section. May 15, 1989.

“More buyers attracted to the acquisition of parts of Telmex”
“Proposals by Carlos Slim Helú[5] and Joaquín Vargas Gómez[6] are being reviewed, while Emilio Azcárraga and Alejandro Burillo’s proposal [7] aims for a second round at trying to acquire the Central Mexico telephonic zone.”
Note on Reforma's economy section, May 30, 1989

=========================================================​

Footnotes:

[1] “Part 2” refers to the fact there was a previous “Drug War” during the 1960’s, though that was of a lower intensity, and was focused mostly on Sinaloa and Durango.
[2] Well, considering most of the drug trafficking groups were more unified back in 1990, we’re in for something rather violent on the following years.
[3] Not related at all with the notorious drug cartel. It's a weekly newspaper released in my home town.
[4] CONACYT (Comisión Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología / National Science and Technology Foundation); SITATYR (Sindicato de Trabajadores y Actores de Televisión y Radio / TV and Radio Actors And Workers Guild); IMER (Instituto Mexicano de la Radio / Mexican Radio Institute). On the Shortwave, IMER had a station called Radio México Internacional (callsign: XERMX-OC), but by then most of its equipment was broken due to governmental negligence, so keeping it was a waste of resources that could be used for something else.
[5] You already know him.
[6] Founder of MVS Comunicaciones, one of Mexico’s first national radio broadcasters.
[7] Emilio Azcárraga Milmo and Alejandro Burillo founded Cablevisión. They are aiming to establish an early double-play monopoly here.

 

[Dan1988]

As always, another great update! Too bad about shelving XERMX - maybe it can come back later with all new equipment, once everything else is sorted out.

 

[Vault boy]

As always, another great update! Too bad about shelving XERMX - maybe it can come back later with all new equipment, once everything else is sorted out.

It will come back, trust me... though it will be as an Internet radio station, as per OTL.

 

[The Uchronian]

Cool, man. We could use a few more Mexico-centric TLs out there, TBH.

 

[Vault boy]

Cool, man. We could use a few more Mexico-centric TLs out there, TBH.

Thanks!

I think I'll work on an ISOT from 2012 to 1912 after I finish this one. Or perhaps the Balkanized Mexico/USA after the Mexican-American war. It's my country, after all.