Brezhnev crashes the car

[Realpolitik]

Reviving an old thread idea...

June 1973. Nixon is holding a summit at Camp David with Brezhnev. Nixon gave him a gift-a brand new Lincoln Continental. Brezhnev really liked fancy cars. He took Nixon immediately into the car-with Dobrynin in the back seat, and proceeded to do donuts all over Camp David while Kissinger and Gromyko and the rest all looked on, stunned. Winding narrow roads, high speed... Brezhnev was a car enthusiast and unlike most Soviet leaders drove himself, but his driving was notoriously wild (and naturally, the traffic guys didn't stop him at home) and at any rate used to the wide boulevards of Moscow, not the winding thin roads of Camp David.

They nearly fell off a steep curve. Both Dobrynin and Nixon mention this incident in their memoirs.

Let's say Brezhnev is a second too late on getting to the brake, and the car crashes.

A few thoughts before we discuss:

1) If Nixon is killed, Spiro Agnew is Prezzie. Agnew's views in policy tended to be a little... unrefined, to say the least(think Palin). And the Yom Kippur War, which got a DEFCON III, is not that far away, along with the oil crisis and his simultaneous legal troubles... how Agnew would handle that is not something I'd like to think about. Detente is going to having some problems, and again, with the Yom Kippur War/Oil Crisis not being far away, this could be very bad. What happens if Agnew bungles Nickle Grass (or even worse, ignores that and goes for something a lot cruder, or nothing at all) and the Israelis ready the nukes? Or bombastically threatens the Soviets or Sadat or something? With a President Agnew in charge... *Gulp*. Come on, Henry...

2) How will the Soviets react to Brezhnev basically killing/injuring himself, Agnew Presidency aside? Leonid Brezhnev was a representative for the pro-detente faction against their "hawks", and was crucial to improving relations in the detente period. What political faction is going to win out in the Politburo, and will it be smooth or messy? What about Soviet domestic consumption? Russians love conspiracies like Americans love money, so get ready for good ones emanating from the Kremlin. The Soviets viewed Watergate through their own lenses, so if Nixon is hurt/killed, get ready for the Soviets to draw a conclusion from that.

3) If Nixon survives and is in a wheelchair or something(FDR style), could this have an effect on Watergate? Maybe not-having pneumonia didn't, after all, and by June, Nixon's authority and political capital was extremely wounded to say the least. But the hearings are in recess during the summit, the tapes have not been revealed yet, and American political mood can be very unpredictable. Or what if he were in a coma? Congress and the other relevant groups will have to be a little careful if public opinion suddenly swings back to the administrations side, at least temporarily. And what if Agnew uses this sympathy bump, if Nixon is killed, to fight Case-Church?

 

[Paul V McNutt]

If Agnew becomes President he will have to resign in about four months over his tax evasion and bribery charges. I assume he would pick Nelson Rockefeller as Vice President. Rockefeller would lose to Ronald Reagan in the 1976 primaries. I think rReagan would lose but I don't know who is the Democrat that beats him. With Nixon's death Watergate is less of a scandal. jJimmy Carter might not get the nomination. wwWhen former President Rockefeller has his heart attack, there is a Secret Service agent who know CPR in the next room.

 

[UncleDynamite]

If Agnew becomes President he will have to resign in about four months over his tax evasion and bribery charges. I assume he would pick Nelson Rockefeller as Vice President.

Why? Rocky was by no means a sure pick for VP for Ford even(IIRC it was down to him and GHW Bush at the end), and I don't see any outstanding reason why Agnew would pick him.

Agnew's views were nebulous enough(he governed Maryland as a moderate but used increasingly conservative rhetoric as time went on, especially as Vice President) that I think he could get away with either a moderate or a conservative as VP. Considering this and his frankly erratic behavior I don't see any clear Vice Presidents for him at all.

This is all assuming that Agnew would even have time to pick a VP(or have him accepted by the Senate) before he's thrown out of office- in which case we can look forward to President Carl Albert.

 

[Realpolitik]

Why? Rocky was by no means a sure pick for VP for Ford even(IIRC it was down to him and GHW Bush at the end), and I don't see any outstanding reason why Agnew would pick him.

Agnew's views were nebulous enough(he governed Maryland as a moderate but used increasingly conservative rhetoric as time went on, especially as Vice President) that I think he could get away with either a moderate or a conservative as VP. Considering this and his frankly erratic behavior I don't see any clear Vice Presidents for him at all.

This is all assuming that Agnew would even have time to pick a VP(or have him accepted by the Senate) before he's thrown out of office- in which case we can look forward to President Carl Albert.

Agnew has until October, and nobody can predict that he will resign quite yet. So, yes, he'll have to have one. Assuming of course that Nixon's death does not inflame public sympathy to the point where they call off the investigation of Agnew.

My main concern would actually be, were I around at the time, that we get through October of 1973 OK. Aka, Yom Kippur doesn't take a turn for the worse, if Nixon dies and Agnew is President. Agnew's resignation-or whatever action he might take-at this time could really cause some problems if Nickle Grass or Kissinger's shuttle diplomacy is messed with in the process, especially if relations with the USSR take a downturn with Agnew. I really hope Agnew and Congress has enough common sense to leave Kissinger alone, at the very least.

 

[Realpolitik]

Give this a bump. I think there is an untapped potential for a TL here.

 

[Dunning Kruger]

2) How will the Soviets react to Brezhnev basically killing/injuring himself, Agnew Presidency aside? Leonid Brezhnev was a representative for the pro-detente faction against their "hawks", and was crucial to improving relations in the detente period. What political faction is going to win out in the Politburo, and will it smooth or messy? What about Soviet domestic consumption? Russians love conspiracies like Americans love money, so get ready for good ones emanating from the Kremlin. The Soviets viewed Watergate through their own lenses, so if Nixon is hurt/killed, get ready for the Soviets to draw a conclusion from that.

Although Kosygin and Podgorny were still bumping around I believe they had largely been pushed aside by 1973 (someone can correct me if I am wrong). Kirilenko was probably viewed as #2 and would have been the most likely successor. However, the OTL Soviet regime had unlikely successors emerge several times with Khrushchev and Brezhnev being obvious examples. So, there could be a dark horse.

With Suslov in a relatively secure position, I think he would have been the kingmaker. Given he was a Stalinist, I dont think a whole lot changes and I dont think he would have let Kosygin or Podgorny back into a position of power, let alone General Secretary. I dont know a lot about Kirilenko to know what he might have done.

With Detente, why would they change? During "Detente", the Soviets expanded their influence in Africa and Latin America, rolled out the T-72 and then T-80, the SS-20's in Europe, and substantially expanded their naval presence globally (among other things). Detente was a convenient way to expand their power base without confrontation. And also the reason why it ultimately fell apart.

One interesting question is how would this TL affect the Helsinki Accords. The accords ratified the borders in Europe, legitimizing Soviet hegemony in Eastern Europe, but also included provisions on human rights that became a lightning rod for criticism via dissidents etc.

 

[Mr.Progressive]

Holy Fuck

Think about this...

Ted Agnew is President, and the Pro-Peace Leader of the Soviet Union is dead. So a crazy man is in the White House, while the Hawks (who were asking "when" not "if" WWIII would break out) are in the Kremlin.

Just read "Fear,Loathing, and Gumbo"

I expect Agnew to do something stupid at the worst time, and his problems to pop up. And piss the wrong Soviet Leader.

He said in OTL the first thing he do as President would invade North Vietnam!

 

[Realpolitik]

Although Kosygin and Podgorny were still bumping around I believe they had largely been pushed aside by 1973 (someone can correct me if I am wrong). Kirilenko was probably viewed as #2 and would have been the most likely successor. However, the OTL Soviet regime had unlikely successors emerge several times with Khrushchev and Brezhnev being obvious examples. So, there could be a dark horse.

With Suslov in a relatively secure position, I think he would have been the kingmaker. Given he was a Stalinist, I dont think a whole lot changes and I dont think he would have let Kosygin or Podgorny back into a position of power, let alone General Secretary. I dont know a lot about Kirilenko to know what he might have done.

With Detente, why would they change? During "Detente", the Soviets expanded their influence in Africa and Latin America, rolled out the T-72 and then T-80, the SS-20's in Europe, and substantially expanded their naval presence globally (among other things). Detente was a convenient way to expand their power base without confrontation. And also the reason why it ultimately fell apart.

One interesting question is how would this TL affect the Helsinki Accords. The accords ratified the borders in Europe, legitimizing Soviet hegemony in Eastern Europe, but also included provisions on human rights that became a lightning rod for criticism via dissidents etc.

My guess is that the Politburo would go for a somewhat collective leadership-I don't think they'd want to relive the post Stalin 50s again and risk their lives. Suslov is a hardliner, as well as Agnew, so expect the relationship to cool off, especially if Agnew takes a hard right stance. However, Kosygin and the pro-detente faction would probably still have influence, given the factors going for it as you mentioned. It depends partially on what happens in the USA, of course, as well as the power struggle and how good the winner of said struggle is at isolating the other factions.

Host of reasons. Off the top of my head, for one thing, there was a faction in the Politburo that wanted to reapproch with the Chinese instead of the Americans and to follow a more ideological rather than geopolitical line. Notice the relative lack of reaction to Allende's fate in Moscow-that might be different if a more hardline guy was in power. Secondly, without detente, it's possible that their reaction to the Yom Kippur crisis would be different. Again, Israel has nukes and Egypt/Syria has Soviet arms, so if things go wrong down there, the butterflies might be huge. Not to mention the refusenik problem, which could get ugly if things get hairy in the Middle East in PR terms. Thirdly, would they want to continue with Agnew in power, and the revolving door-or so they would perceive-in Washington? It's not just the "hawks" in Moscow, They still have to deal with both the far right and military in the USA being hostile to the idea at all, and the left having an increasing concern for human rights. There was also the economic situation in the Soviet Union, in which differing factions wanted different solutions, not all of them Brezhnev's strategy. We persistently overestimated Soviet internal economic strength, but certain figures in the Politburo didn't. And certain figures did.

That's assuming there is an American presence in Helsinki at all, given the possible butterflies.

Holy Fuck

Think about this...

Ted Agnew is President, and the Pro-Peace Leader of the Soviet Union is dead. So a crazy man is in the White House, while the Hawks (who were asking "when" not "if" WWIII would break out) are in the Kremlin.

Just read "Fear,Loathing, and Gumbo"

I expect Agnew to do something stupid at the worst time, and his problems to pop up. And piss the wrong Soviet Leader.

He said in OTL the first thing he do as President would invade North Vietnam!

The inspiration for this idea did come in part from that TL, but this is meant to be far, far worse if they are both killed. Other than the inevitable conspiracy nuts being on overdrive, it's going to help kill detente, which helped us get through the October crisis without it becoming Cuba 2.0 at best. It's very sudden, in the middle of Watergate but before the the taping system is revealed, and with the storm in the Middle East brewing, with the pot about to boil over at the same time as Agnew's legal troubles OTL. If Brezhnev is killed while in America of course, that makes things far worse.

And as I mentioned, if Agnew gets a sympathy bump from a dead President-and he would, even at this point in Watergate, since the taping controversy has not begun yet-he can fight Case-Church. Combine that with the USSR and the Middle East, and you've got a pretty explosive combination.

And again, I'm also interested in a "wounded Nixon" scenario as well.

 

[Paul V McNutt]

Why? Rocky was by no means a sure pick for VP for Ford even(IIRC it was down to him and GHW Bush at the end), and I don't see any outstanding reason why Agnew would

I am assuming that Agnew would pick Rockefeller for the same reason Ford did a balanced 1976 ticket. George H W Bush could possibly defeat Reagan.

This is all assuming that Agnew would even have time to pick a VP(or have him accepted by the Senate) before he's thrown out of office- in which case we can look forward to President Carl Albert.

Albert did not want to be President or to undo the 1972 election. hHe would nominate fFord as Vice President. After Ford was confirmed he would resign.

 

[Paul V McNutt]

I think the injured Nixon is an interesting POD. Since he was facing the most stressful time maybe he resigns earlier. hHe could die in office. There would be no Nixon pardon and Ford wins.

 

[Realpolitik]

I think the injured Nixon is an interesting POD. Since he was facing the most stressful time maybe he resigns earlier. hHe could die in office. There would be no Nixon pardon and Ford wins.

Nixon would never resign office unless he was literally forced to. And if Watergate continues, at best it does so at the same speed.

 

[UncleDynamite]

Albert did not want to be President or to undo the 1972 election. hHe would nominate fFord as Vice President. After Ford was confirmed he would resign.

I was not aware of that, thank you! So the Universe is conspiring to make Jerry Ford President...

 

[Blair]

I agree with the above commenters saying that President Agnew at this point would result in something Gumbo-esq. Although I'm curious if a simply injured Nixon would be able to cling to the presidency, perhaps not but it would be interesting.

 

[Realpolitik]

I agree with the above commenters saying that President Agnew at this point would result in something Gumbo-esq. Although I'm curious if a simply injured Nixon would be able to cling to the presidency, perhaps not but it would be interesting.

Again, I have not read the full story is a while, but it's meant to be worse. International crisis/near nuclear war meets deteriorating faith in the American dream meets oil crisis meets Spiro Agnew-which probably means deteriorating foreign relationships everywhere combined with an all out war between Congress and the President, odds are with both acting completely irresponsibly. And in that universe, the Soviets didn't lose their top leader as well.

Imagine the political cartoons, on a lighter note...

Depends on how the sympathy of the public goes. If he is in a wheelchair or in a coma or something, this might postpone the investigation, at least-the key is if the tapes get revealed. What made Watergate WATERGATE was the epic battle of the tapes, and Nixon just drawing out the agony and imprinting his guilt on everybody's mind. If it halts it altogether or they stop asking questions aimed to "get" Nixon due to public sympathy for the President, the Nixon administration survives, if wounded. But I'm not sure that Nixon would get that sympathetic of a reaction. I think that the prospect of an Agnew administration, however short, might temper some of the zealots in Congress and the media.

 

[Realpolitik]

I'm not giving up on this one. Come on, folks, I know that there is some serious potential here, in spite of how silly this POD might seem.

 

[Dunning Kruger]

One thing about the soviets, is when a new leader came into power, it usually took them a couple of years until they consolidated their base. So you typically didnt see bold action by the General Secretary until he felt confident enough to assert himself. It took Stalin several years before he really acted unilaterally. It took Khrushchev 3 years before he repudiated Stalin. Brezhnev was pretty quiet until the invasion of Czechoslovakia in 68, 4 years after coming into power. So I actually think confrontation over the Yom Kippur war is actually less likely, particularly with so many in the top positions having still fresh memories of Khrushchev's adventurism. In fact, both Syria and Egypt might have been much more quick to accept peace terms once the war turned had they not had Soviet support.

 

[Paul V McNutt]

Nixon is so disabled that Agnew and the cabinet invoke the 25th Amendment and make Agnew acting President. When the bribery and tax evasion charges became public, Congress impeaches and removes Agnew.cCarl Albert becomes Acting President. hHe has Congress name Gerald Ford Vice President and then resigns. dDoes Andropov take power in the Soviet Union?

 

[Dunning Kruger]

Does Andropov take power in the Soviet Union?

No. Andropov was only able to take power in 82 because he had already left the KGB and take a position as 2nd Secretary after Suslov's death. After Beria and Zhukov, the Politburo distanced the military and police from power. Andropov only joined the Politburo in 1973 and it was the first time since Beria that the KGB had a member on it.

 

[Paul V McNutt]

I looked it up the 25th Amendment says the president nominates the Vice President. There would be a constitutional question whether acting president Albert could nominate a Vice President. There would be a number of constitutional questions about the acting presidents.aaAlbert could be acting president until January 20, 1977 or Nixon's death. mMaybe Albert like Ford runs for the White House in 1976 in order to be taken seriously. This tTL keeps getting more interesting.

 

[Grand Admiral Thrawn]

I looked it up the 25th Amendment says the president nominates the Vice President. There would be a constitutional question whether acting president Albert could nominate a Vice President. There would be a number of constitutional questions about the acting presidents.aaAlbert could be acting president until January 20, 1977 or Nixon's death. mMaybe Albert like Ford runs for the White House in 1976 in order to be taken seriously. This tTL keeps getting more interesting.

Or the House could appoint Ford as Speaker, then Albert resigns. That way a Republican is President (acting or real, no idea), since Albert wanted to keep it GOP. Or more likely, Agnew has to appoint a VP before resigning.