Breaking up Indonesia

[Hobelhouse]

For my timline I'm planning on having Indonesia's independence movement splinter and result in several different states coming to be based on ethnic and religious lines.

The problem is, Indonesia has approximately 6,000,000,000 ethnic groups so I'm not sure how the breakdown would go. This map is a first draft; please criticize it, so I can get it right. Each color is one nation.

Some notes:

-I'm not sure where West Papuawould end up; would it go it alone or merge with New Guinea, which I have here.

- It seems like the Javanese would be able to dominate the Balinese and Madurese on Java but I think the Sundanese are too numerous to be absorbed into a Javanese state.

-Not sure what to do with Borneo, is there more than one group of Malays there? The ethnic map I found was fairly vague.

-The islands out east are all probably horribly wrong, can one of the Indonesians here help me out?

Also worth discussing is how the region's politics would play out.

It strikes me that Java will not have the internal migration exit valve and so there will be plenty more people than OTL - immigration strikes me as likely, but to where? The US, Netherlands, and Australia are the likely targets, but they might immigrate to neighboring islands as well - causing ethnic tensions.

Depending on how the borders end up, there could be several regional flashpoints as well - you don't see much naval warfare done by 3rd world nations but here it would be a necessity - it gives me some interesting story ideas.

 

[Vnix]

if this happes during the independence, I would think that some parts where there is a dutch majority the dutch would stay. Would be interesting to see, a few cities and communities as enclaves in Indonesia

 

[pompejus]

I would say that the three best candidates to form their own country are Aceh, the Maluku islands and Dutch New Guinea.

 

[kasumigenx]

Filipino Irredentists can get North Sulawesi...

 

[HJ Tulp]

What's the POD?

 

[iori]

The problem is, Indonesia has approximately 6,000,000,000 ethnic groups so I'm not sure how the breakdown would go.

Indonesia has less than 1,000 Ethnic groups.
It's impossible for any country to have 6 billion, hell it's impossible for the entire world to have that many.

 

[Don Lardo]

Indonesia has less than 1,000 Ethnic groups. It's impossible for any country to have 6 billion, hell it's impossible for the entire world to have that many.

Humor? Hyperbole? Every run across them before?

 

[iori]

Humor? Hyperbole? Every run across them before?

In which case it ought to have been said in a different manner, as the current sentence makes it sound serious.

 

[Cook]

What time period is your start point?

Due to deliberate internal redistribution of people from Java to some of the less populated provinces the Papuans are now a minority in West Irian (Irian Jaya).

 

[Nusantara]

That map actually looks pretty accurate, but as stated before you need a POD. Depending on what it is, the divisions in Indonesia would be much, much different than they are today. For fun, let's just say that the POD is Sukarno failing to declare independence on 17 August, which very nearly happened. Something like this would probably turn up:



Assuming that the main Indonesian Independence Movement is now divided between the 'old' revolutionaries, the first batch of native Indonesians to be educated in Europe in the 1920's, and the 'new' revolutionaries, they will be too weak to get all of Indonesia to rally under them. Most of these men are Javanese, Sundanese, or Mingangkabau, and probably will return to their homeland.

Java may or may not be divided between the Javanese and Sundanese, but an independent Yogyakarta is almost certainly possible, as is an independent Surakarta. Even though they were under Dutch rule, the Dutch East Indies was by no means united as one people. A bunch of Sultanates would pop up, but I think only these two were powerful enough to survive in Java.

In Sumatra, Aceh will most likely gain independence easily and dominate the northern coasts, which were once part of their kingdom. The Minangkabau in Central Sumatra could become powerful enough to become it's own state, but many of their men immigrated out due to the matrilineal culture there. They however still have some of the most influential people in the East Indies. The rest of Sumatra is dominated by coastal Malays, and the unwanted south-western part of Sumatra could easily become part of the 'coastal Malay' nation. I could see the Bataks in the northern highlands of Sumatra becoming the next Kashmir.

Outside of these two islands, it's hard to tell. Kalimantan might be able to become one nation, but the population centers here are so isolated and far apart. It just might become part of British Malaya. Something interesting here is the Darul Islam movement in the south-east region of the island (which is the most populated). They might be able to take over the whole of the island. If they don't go for American support and turn towards the USSR the indigenous Dayak might be in a similar situation to the Hmong in Vietnam.

In my opinion most of Sulawesi would be under control of a nation centered in Makassar, most probably an Islamic Republic or a Socialist state of some sort. Manado in the north is mostly Christian, and in real life a rebel movement there was supported by the US. The northern Maluku islands would probably join this nation as it attempted to do in the past. The southern Maluku islands oddly enough support the Dutch and would stay their colony for a while unless the Dutch surrendered the Indies. The same goes with Dutch New Guinea, truthfully most of their inhabitants did not even know they were ruled by the Dutch.

But before we go to an Indonesia breaks up scenario we should look at the rest of South East Asia. All of the nations are carved up from colonial borders, and although the resemble former kingdoms, it's just not the same. Malaysia has probably dozens of different sultanates, yet it stayed as one. If Indonesia does balkanize, who knows if the other newly independent nations in the region do as well?

And the Philippines taking north Sumatra? I think it was and Indonesian empire that used to rule southern Philippines, not the other way around. Besides, they don't even have a claim on it. Northern Kalimantan on the other hand could be taken by the Philippines.

 

[counterblitzkrieg]

There's no way the majority Christian Batak population in North Sumatra will join in together with the majority Muslim population in Aceh which also happened to be the most religious considering they were the only province to use the Shariah law.

And I think Yogyakarta would became a separate nation considering they have their own monarch even now. The Sultan of Yogyakarta would declare independence if Indonesia is ever broken.

 

[Nusantara]

It didn't. See the yellow-lined area. That's Christian Batak, and as I said it may be a Kashmir-like area, fought over between two nations but unable to gain support from other nations for independence.

 

[counterblitzkrieg]

It didn't. See the yellow-lined area. That's Christian Batak, and as I said it may be a Kashmir-like area, fought over between two nations but unable to gain support from other nations for independence.

Oh, I was talking about Hobelhouse's map.

But why do have have to be like Kashmir-like area. The area around Toba and Tapanuli (the dominantly Christian Bataks) had total population of approximately 2-3 million people. There were a lot of countries in OTL with less population than that. I think they could be an independent country, albeit with more powerful neighbors around them.

 

[ComradeTovarich]

I'm not sure about any of you, but I think that there's bound to be a Communist enclave somewhere that would attempt to unite all of Indonesia if Sukarno fails to declare independence.

Anyway, naval warfare could get very interesting with the 'navies' of each of those states having ships no larger than a destroyer. A balkanised Indonesia would end up as a high-seas version of Somalia with AK-47 and RPG toting militia riding around on speedboats or hijacked corvette if they're lucky.

 

[JJDXB]

Any of the old Sultan of Sulu's possessions will probably go to the Philippines. I don't know exactly what they were in Indonesia, but I am sure a little sliver of land on the Sabah/Kalimantan border would go the Philippines.

Irian Jaya either goes independent or joins PNG.

I can see Aceh go independent as well.

Bali and the other Hindu majority islands will also probably end up independant.

 

[Nusantara]

I'm not sure about any of you, but I think that there's bound to be a Communist enclave somewhere that would attempt to unite all of Indonesia if Sukarno fails to declare independence.

There were many that actually tried, but all failed to unite all of Indonesia. Sumatra seemed like a hotbed of communist activity, with at least two leaders in the Communist Party of Indonesia hailing from there. Some close calls however actually did happen. If this could be successful then Padang (western Sumatra) could become a communist state. And Aceh, having history of requesting help from the French, Americans, and Ottomans back when they were independent, might become a pro-western Islamic state. Seems like a potential front for the Cold War.

EDIT: Sumatra and Padang might turn into one nation since so many of the top leaders from the PKI came from here. With similarities in both culture and ideology, it's possible that they become one state. I think Sumatra could be Vietnam, split between pro West (Aceh) and pro Soviet (most of the rest of Sumatra)

Anyway, naval warfare could get very interesting with the 'navies' of each of those states having ships no larger than a destroyer. A balkanised Indonesia would end up as a high-seas version of Somalia with AK-47 and RPG toting militia riding around on speedboats or hijacked corvette if they're lucky.

That's quite pessimistic

Well, since the division of Indonesia means many different ideologies across the archipelago, I'm pretty sure that both the USSR and the USA are keen to get these strategic new nations on their side, pampering them with weapons and - most importantly in this archipelago - ships. I actually see better anti-pirating things happening, since the central governments have smaller areas to cover.

But seriously, it's almost impossible to see what could happen. In the 50's every part of Indonesia had more than one separatist movement, and any nation in that area could become anything, if backed by the world's superpowers.

 

[Theodoric]

if this happes during the independence, I would think that some parts where there is a dutch majority the dutch would stay. Would be interesting to see, a few cities and communities as enclaves in Indonesia

Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if there were any Indo enclaves or regions. Something similar was already tried IOTL on New Guinea I think , but that didn't work out.

 

[HJ Tulp]

Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if there were any Indo enclaves or regions. Something similar was already tried IOTL on New Guinea I think , but that didn't work out.

There were never any Indo regions or enclaves before independence. The class of Indos was mostly employed as civil servants and were thus all over the archipelago. After independence there was indeed an effort to settle them on West Papua indeed but that didn't really work out.

There were ofcourse pockets of pro-dutch groups all over the Dutch East Indies, sometimes a couple of villages but also a couple of ethnic groups which were pretty much for Queen and Country. The Moluccans ofcourse (Door de Eeuwen Trouw), christians on Madura, Menado was pretty much pro-Dutch, West Papua and some others.

 

[Theodoric]

There were never any Indo regions or enclaves before independence. The class of Indos was mostly employed as civil servants and were thus all over the archipelago.

I meant in this proposed scenario. Should've said that, sorry.

 

[Cloudwarrior]

Papua New Guinea

Don't know much about internal Indonesian history, but here a few pointers mainly pertaining to New Guinea:

• The Dutch continued to rule West Papua until 1962
• Papua New Guinea was not an independent country until 1975 but was incorporated as the Territories of Papua and New Guinea under UN Trusteeship by Australia

Because of these points, you would expect a continuing Dutch presence in West Papua and more Australian involvement in its status as the colonial power in Papua and New Guinea - perhaps even a Dutch-Australian condominium.