Brazilian WI: Campinas' light rail/streetcar system is successful?

[Vinization]

While light rail systems here in Brazil are usually seen as a novelty dating from the 2010s onward, the city of Campinas made a brief experiment with this form of urban transit at the beginning of the 1990s. The mayor at the time, Jacó Bittar, wished to build such a system, and obtained the help of Orestes Quércia, governor of the state of São Paulo and himself a former mayor of Campinas, in this endeavor.

Unfortunately, the light rail's implementation in Campinas was a debacle from the get go: its construction was mired in accusations of corruption, and three stations were left unfinished. As if that weren't enough, the stations that were completed weren't properly connected with the city's bus network, severely diminishing their usefulness to Campinas' population. The result was that, even though the streetcar line was supposed to serve 75.000 people every day, only 4.000 actually used it, creating a huge deficit in its finances. Thus, Campinas' light rail system was shut down in 1995, after just five years of existence.

So, what if Campinas' light rail system was less of a disaster? While some degree of corruption during its construction is almost guaranteed, I don't see why the stations couldn't be put in places where they'd actually be useful to the city's population. With Campinas' experiment being a success ITTL, could cities like Rio de Janeiro build light rail lines several years ahead of schedule?

Lastly, this WI could lead to some interesting political consequences, in my view. Jacó Bittar was a founding member of the Workers' Party (or PT, in its Portuguese acronym), together with people like Olívio Dutra and, of course, Lula. However, his tenure as mayor of Campinas was so fraught and tumultuous that he left the party in 1991, and never took elective office again after his term came to an end. Should the streetcar system be successful, however, his administration would likely be seen in a better light, and maybe his career wouldn't go down in flames.

Indeed, I wonder if petista mayors of other large cities, especially in Porto Alegre (a stronghold of the party from 1988 until 2004), could be inspired to follow Bittar's example and build streetcar systems in their own municipalities.

@Gukpard @Taunay @Guilherme Loureiro

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

Don't know enough to comment on Campinas, but I can say that, no matter whether Campinas Light Rail succeeds or fails, Rio de Janeiro would probably not adopt it in the early 90s; Rio de Janeiro City was short on money back then and the favoured transport mode would have probably been Bus Rapid Transit, as proposed in the mid-to-late 1980s by Brizola(as an alternative to the underground, which Brizola dismissed as expensive and 'linking nowhere to no place', as we say here) and later enacted in Curitiba by Jaime Lerner(which took the proposal with him, as he was one of the people linked to the original project).

Mind you, I do think it would have been a good idea for Rio to build a light rail system back then, it's just that it would probably have to wait for the first mayorship of César Maia (beginning in 1996) to be enacted, especially since it was one of his proposals, which Eduardo Paes later resurrected.

 

[Vinization]

Don't know enough to comment on Campinas, but I can say that, no matter whether Campinas Light Rail succeeds or fails, Rio de Janeiro would probably not adopt it in the early 90s; Rio de Janeiro City was short on money back then and the favoured transport mode would have probably been Bus Rapid Transit, as proposed in the mid-to-late 1980s by Brizola(as an alternative to the underground, which Brizola dismissed as expensive and 'linking nowhere to no place', as we say here) and later enacted in Curitiba by Jaime Lerner(which took the proposal with him, as he was one of the people linked to the original project).

Mind you, I do think it would have been a good idea for Rio to build a light rail system back then, it's just that it would probably have to wait for the first mayorship of César Maia (beginning in 1996) to be enacted, especially since it was one of his proposals, which Eduardo Paes later resurrected.

AFAIK Brizola didn't do anything regarding mass transit in Rio during either of his administrations IOTL, and his second one was a dumpster fire (better than the ones that came after, in my view, but I digress). Therefore, I don't see him doing much on that front ITTL.

As for Cesar Maia (minor nitpick, but his first term as mayor of Rio began in 1993), I wonder if the construction of a (functioning) streetcar system would affect how his mayoralty is perceived by the general public. He was pretty popular IOTL, as shown by the margin with which Luiz Paulo Conde was elected in 1996. It would be logical, for me at least, to assume Maia would perform better in his gubernatorial campaign against Anthony Garotinho in 1998, perhaps even enough to win. Rio state and municipal politics would likely be altered in a considerable way from that point onward.

Of course, the butterflies spawned by the POD mean there's a chance Maia doesn't even become mayor of Rio city in the first place, since his margin of victory over Benedita da Silva (a member of PT) was very narrow. I wouldn't be surprised if a hypothetical Benedita mayoralty also ended up building a streetcar network ITTL, since she'd be following an example set by a fellow petista mayor.

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

AFAIK Brizola didn't do anything regarding mass transit in Rio during either of his administrations IOTL, and his second one was a dumpster fire (better than the ones that came after, in my view, but I digress). Therefore, I don't see him doing much on that front ITTL.

As for Cesar Maia (minor nitpick, but his first term as mayor of Rio began in 1993), I wonder if the construction of a (functioning) streetcar system would affect how his mayoralty is perceived by the general public. He was pretty popular IOTL, as shown by the margin with which Luiz Paulo Conde was elected in 1996. It would be logical, for me at least, to assume Maia would perform better in his gubernatorial campaign against Anthony Garotinho in 1998, perhaps even enough to win. Rio state and municipal politics would likely be altered in a considerable way from that point onward.

Of course, the butterflies spawned by the POD mean there's a chance Maia doesn't even become mayor of Rio city in the first place, since his margin of victory over Benedita da Silva (a member of PT) was very narrow. I wouldn't be surprised if a hypothetical Benedita mayoralty also ended up building a streetcar network ITTL, since she'd be following an example set by a fellow petista mayor.

In theory, the only mass transit he could do something about was the metro, because the Rio de Janeiro Metro was owned by the Rio de Janeiro State(as it had begun not as the Rio de Janeiro City Metro, but as the Guanabara State Metro - The Rio Metro is a State, not a Municipal concession, even today). BRT was what he proposed instead of continuing the work on it - Brizola once said it would have been cheaper to pay taxi fares for Cariocas than to spend money on the Metro; my guess is he didn't want to spend money(which was short back then, and would be until around 1998-2000) on something that wouldn't give palpable results before the end of his term, as the new metro stations would have been completed in the following administration. As for Rio State administrations, I don't reckon any of them since 1982(and I only say this because I was too young to remember anything of Chagas Freitas' administration) could be even called 'mediocre', and they are a big part of what made Rio de Janeiro State fall so much.

As for César Maia(you are correct regarding his first administration beginning in 1993), there is a problem regarding him beginning a light rail system(and something which I didn't mention in my earlier post): Rio Cidade, the overhaul of the streets of Rio de Janeiro(widening sidewalks at the expense of car lanes, overhauling underground telephone cabling, renovation of some small parks, and so on). Theoretically, it was the time to enact a light rail system, but I don't think there was money enough for both at the same time(hell, in Maia's first term, Rio Cidade was only enacted in the neighbourhoods tourists see - Zona Sul and parts of the city centre). My guess is it would have to wait until 1997, and this applies even with a possible(God forbid) Benedita administration(because she would have different priorities instead of Rio Cidade, which would as well compete with a light rail) - maybe it'd be a campaign promise that doesn't go forward?.

As for other PT mayors, yes, it's quite possible they would try to follow the example of a successful Campinas Light Rail, money permitting.

 

[Vinization]

My guess is it would have to wait until 1997, and this applies even with a possible(God forbid) Benedita administration(because she would have different priorities instead of Rio Cidade, which would as well compete with a light rail) - maybe it'd be a campaign promise that doesn't go forward?

Makes sense to me. As a petista Benedita's main priority would likely be stuff like social programs and participatory budgeting (an extremely interesting subject to me, but also one that warrants a separate thread), anyway.