Black Settlement into the Philippines; is its potential intriguing enough to speculate upon it?

[Simeon]

from this file: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://scholarworks.umt.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=12903&context=etd&ved=2ahUKEwi1wPOwkaCBAxX7-jgGHRUkAqMQFnoECBMQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2dUIWP18EhuFmj-YYPcFDZ

On February 16, 1900, a prominent “capitalist” named A.G. Greenwood called upon Congress to finance the “emigration of the whole [American] negro population” to the Philippines. To him, this was the answer to the Philippines Question that had dominated public debate since the end of the Spanish-American War. What, Americans asked, should be done with the Philippines now that the tyrannical Spanish had been defeated? Should the United States govern the islands or grant independence? Greenwood’s answer was linked to the economic benefits he hoped would follow the expansion of America’s overseas empire. He imagined the fertile Philippines supporting “almost any products of the earth,” particularly tobacco, sugar cane, and rice. What’s more, with the proper infrastructure, the islands’ natural resources could be exported to the “great markets” of nearby China and Russia. The trouble was that the native Filipinos were not up to the task. Black Americans were. Because they had benefited from “years of education” and the “example” of white Americans, they would, he predicted, “become rich and influential in the East.” As for the Filipinos, the law of “the survival of the fittest would be illustrated,” allowing black Americans to control the country and maximize its resources.

I am personally leaning on the potential of the Philippine society successfully integrating the black immigrants and successfully engendering TTL's version of the Harlem Renaissance; it will happen this time around the contexts of the resettlement and the idealism of the late Philippine Revolution and the aborted Republic that they would have likewise found surprising — though as undeniable facts.

However — and as the paper itself pointed out — there's the matter of interracial competition between the blacks and the "orientals" that would have preempted them from working with each other, and which the American colonial government could potentially use to its advantage. At worst — this can turn into an Asian version of Liberia, with the Black immigrants organising themselves to the tune of the destructive subjugation of the islands.

However, the presence of the local middle class and principalia will help work against the worst excesses of political domination by the immigrating Black Americans, and it's not as if the local Filipinos have a short supply of intellectuals, barristers, and bureaucrats either. Hence — I believe that it's just as likely that the success and tragedy of the whole endeavour will meet in the middle to create a situation that's neither entirely ideal nor purely dystopian.

Hence, here are the following questions:

• What things could change to encourage the popularity of this proposal in the first place? Can you say that this is an order too tall — implausible, even?
• How coercive will the emigration of the Black Americans be? This is contingent on determining their loyalty and sympathy with the United States.
• How will the legislation for TTL's Philippine Organic Act be influenced with the presumed popularity of this proposal, and how will this affect the establishment of the Philippine insular government?
• The last one is particularly instrumental in determining the nature of the government and society within the Philippines; IOTL, it was organised to determine the needs of the territory in establishing a framework for its governance, done with the help of the local principalia elite that not only ran the local government but also represented themselves in an assembly that served as its lower house. How much of this will be butterflied away? And hence, how unsympathetic the Black Americans could be towards the Filipino cause and make them act like how Liberia's settlers had been? Likewise the case with the Filipino natives towards the Black Americans.
• Just as instrumental in speculating the outcome are the people who will be appointed as governor-generals and commissioners in the nascent insular government; IOTL, the string of the appointed people had mostly acted in good enough faith to repeal the Sedition law as early as 1908 and eventually recommend and endorse pro-independence laws like the Jones Act and the eventual establishment of the Commonwealth. The butterflies being created by the postulated popularity of Black resettlement already being huge as it is — racist actors acting in bad faith could be appointed instead ITTL, complete with all the socioeconomic horrors of Haitian proportions that it would entail in influencing not just the colonised country, but also the United States itself as well.

 

[Gillan1220]

This is an interesting scenario. So African-Americans would migrate en masse to the Philippines? Plus the early 20th Century would see White Russian refugees going to the Philippines. I'm curious how this will affect PH society. Perhaps the African-Americans would also introduce jazz or their version of Christianity similar to the Bible Belt.

Pro-independence Filipinos and the PKP-1930 would encourage African-Americans to join their movements, knowing that early 20th-century America still had segregation.

 

[Garrison]

This sounds very much like forced deportation and I seriously doubt the US would allocate the sort of resources needed for the Philippines to absorb this influx without large scale hunger and most of the Black population sitting behind barbed wire without shelter or medical attention.

 

[Sekhmet_D]

I foresee the black 'migrants' deeply resenting this move and failing to integrate as a result, let alone flourish.

 

[noblahbodyblah]

Hmmm... keep on lurking, or make my first comment about Black American migration to the Philippines in the early 1900's? Not an expert in Black American or Filipino history/culture, but I'll wonder along with you too. I feel like in order to even start conjecturing about whether this kind of migration would be plausible, it would be a good idea to think about the populations/sizes involved around 1900-1920.

Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_the_Philippines) lists the total geography of the Philippines is 300,000 sq km/120,000 sq mi. In comparison, the US States/Territories closest in size according to Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_area) is Arizona (295,234 sq km/113,594.08 sq mi) and New Mexico (314,917 sq km/121,298.15 sq mi). As for geographic footprint, the Philippines would stretch out across several US states if placed on top of the Continental United States - here's a link from the CIA World Factbook to give an idea (https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/philippines/).

And for populations involved, below is what can be found via US Census data for 1900-1920 for the Philippines (https://www.census.gov/history/www/through_the_decades/overview/):

• Population of Philippines estimated in 1900 according to 1910 US Census – 7,360,551 (most populous US State in 1900 is New York at 7,268,894, Arizona had 122,931, and New Mexico had 195,310)
• Population of Philippines in the 1910 US Census – 8,368,427 (most populous US State in 1910 is New York at 9,113,614, Arizona had 202,354, and New Mexico had 327,301)
• Population of Philippines in the 1920 US Census – 10,779,359 (most populous US State in 1920 is New York at 10,385,227, Arizona had 334,162, and New Mexico had 360,350)

Below is the total US Population for those same time-frames according got US Census data (which DOES NOT include the Philippines)

• US Population in the 1900 US Census – 76,303,387
• US Population in the 1910 US Census – 93,402,151
• US Population in the 1920 US Census – 107,438,615

And for good measure, below is what can be found via US Census data for 1900-1920 for Black Americans (listed as Negro):

• Population of Negros in the 1900 US Census – 7,488,788
• Population of Negros in the 1910 US Census – 9,828,294
• Population of Negros in the 1920 US Census – 10,463,131

Long story short – the Philippines from 1900-1920 had about as many people as New York (approximately 8% to 10 % the total population of the United States), slightly more physical land than Arizona, and takes up more geographic space than California. As for Black Americans, they made up 8% to 10% of the total US population in that same 1900-1920 time period.

Obviously, size and population doesn’t even begin to dip into politics, culture, and all the other social aspects in both the United States and the Philippines that would have an effect on any possible endeavor to entice/coerce Black Americans to migrate to the Philippines. And on top of that, there would need to be a sea change as early as the 1900’s about how different communities in the US sees the Philippines – there was lots of debate even then about whether the US had the appetite to try and keep the Philippines, if anyone wanted to migrate that far, and what the long-term goals would be.

Personally, I think to even make this kind of voluntary migration plausible (I’d think forced migration would be a non-starter even with Jim Crow in the wings), things in the US would need to change culturally in the late 1800’s… but that would get into speculating whether the Spanish-American (and Philippine-American) wars would even occur as a result those same differences happening. Maybe the US would still have been hit with the 'land-grab empire' bug as the Europeans at the end of the 19th century, maybe not? Definitely a lot to chew on before even stitching together a timeline.

 

[Jürgen]

I don’t think it would be viable, but it could be interesting if USA sponsored voluntary emigration of Black Americans to Philippines and 500.000 to 1.000.000 emigrated there. But to be brutal honest I don’t expect it to end up a great success, bit it’s would have some interesting cultural results like the spread and dominance of English over Tagalog.

 

[Joseph Solis in Australia]

Mindanao in the 1900s was a largely sparsely populated island like the Americas and Australia with native populations (not including Moros and colonial-era Cebuano-speaking settlers in northern Mindanao coasts) not yet fully transformed into sedentary cultures, so Mindanao could attract both white and black immigrants from the United States and Europe (mainly from Spain, Italy, and Greece) to counter flourishing Chinese and Japanese immigrant settlements in the Davao Gulf region. One policy change American colonial government should have done to make the Philippines more attractive to the European and American stateside immigrants - allow foreign freehold land ownership and instituting jus soli citizenship acquisition mode for the immigrant descendants,

 

[Sceonn]

Why not simply a Negrito dominated Isles of the Philippines?

 

[Thisisnotausername]

Are we just talking about sending a substantial number of African-American emigrants to the Philippines (in the tens or hundreds of thousands, say) or are we talking about sending all of them to the Philippines, as the quoted policy proposal suggests? These are very different scenarios, which imply very different levels of coercion and very different US governments. The former could happen under something resembling the OTL US government, and could be voluntary, at least in part. The latter would be impossible without what amounts to an American version of the Madagascar Plan, implying a white supremacist dictatorship so dedicated to racial purity that it is willing to ignore not just the wishes of the native Filipinos and African-Americans, but of the white southern elites who rely on black sharecroppers to work their plantations. The world of the former is one in which Manila could have its own version of the Harlem Renaissance; the world of the latter is a world in which anyone who would've participated in such a thing most likely ends up in either a prison camp or a shallow grave.

 

[ramones1986]

Why not simply a Negrito dominated Isles of the Philippines?

You need a combination of two PoDs: Pre-1900s with a(n over)dose of ASB.

 

[Metempsychosis]

I foresee the black 'migrants' deeply resenting this move and failing to integrate as a result, let alone flourish.

To be fair, we had more than a few black American soldiers during the Fil-Am War who defected to our side because of just how racist the whites were. David Fagen became a captain on the Philippine nationalist side.

I think black Americans could well integrate better here than one would think. They already do so IOTL.

 

[Declan]

I don't think this would work at all.

To start with there would be a faction within Congress that would be opposed to overt colonialism. Sending African Americans to exploit the country would not go down well and this faction would try to hinder it or stop it if they get a majority in one house.

Lastly, there's the issue of the people of the Philippines themselves. There had been an active independence movement before they were taken over by the US. They would view blacks settlers unfavourably because:
a.) They are displacing native Filipinos from jobs, housing space and fertile land
b.) They would be a population that would might tend to reflexively support continued US rule.
As a result, Filipino rebels would plan attacks on newly built housing for the settlers, and on settlers themselves. This won't stop the US from trying to continue the program, but it does send a message. The stories of settlers being attacked and their houses destroyed would be enough to discourage en masse emigration of African-Americans.

With these two issues combined, I'm fairly certain the program would fizzle out after a decade.

 

[Slime_blob]

I wonder how would this affect the political landscape.

If Americans go and give them land I have a scenario in mind

Quezon losing '35 for his pro American views add in corruption scandals. Aguinaldo and Nationalists Screams AFRICAN AMERICAND ARE TAKING AWAY LAND THAT'S SUPPOSED TO BE GIVEN TO LANDLESS PEASANTS!

If not nothing much really maybe some discontent here and there but not much as no one barely cared about the immigration

 

[AstroRangerBeans]

This is an interesting scenario. So African-Americans would migrate en masse to the Philippines? Plus the early 20th Century would see White Russian refugees going to the Philippines. I'm curious how this will affect PH society. Perhaps the African-Americans would also introduce jazz or their version of Christianity similar to the Bible Belt.

Pro-independence Filipinos and the PKP-1930 would encourage African-Americans to join their movements, knowing that early 20th-century America still had segregation.

Is it likely upon U.S. entering the WWII as an Allied member and Japanese military campaign would affect them upon invading and putting up the 2PR or Laurelist Regime as a client state, depending on their treatment?

 

[Gillan1220]

Is it likely upon U.S. entering the WWII as an Allied member and Japanese military campaign would affect them upon invading and putting up the 2PR or Laurelist Regime as a client state, depending on their treatment?

African-Americans would probably be interned in the University of Santo Tomas just like foreign nationals that were in the Philippines at the time of the invasion. Regarding them joining the PKP-1930 or the Huks depends how the African-Americans would see Jim Crow still being a thing in the 1940s.