Black Jack's 20s

US "Pre-Crash"? I guess if there's a Dem in office when the NYSE goes bottoms up there won't be any FDR coming to the office with the New Deal. Perhaps Hoover runs again and wins?
 
The US is already in conflict with the Soviet Union- they still have about 5000 active duty soldiers on Russian soil (Vladivostok, recognized as Japanese territory by the US)

However, there is no one with the political will of Black Jack to keep men over there. Despite Japanese (and to a lesser extent, British) complaints, The US Expeditionary Force will return to the United States before the Soviets make a drive against Vladivostok.

The US won't recognize the Soviets until later than in OTL either.

A Japanese-Soviet War will happen before any US-Soviet involvement.

Thanks, David, for reading and responding. Got any suggestions or ideas, just PM me and I'll consider them.

You're welcome. :)

Makes sense. I'll guess then that the USA will do everything possible to ensure that the Japanese are adequately supplied, at the very least...
 

HueyLong

Banned
US "Pre-Crash"? I guess if there's a Dem in office when the NYSE goes bottoms up there won't be any FDR coming to the office with the New Deal. Perhaps Hoover runs again and wins?

I thought it was kinda obvious thats where it was headed. Yeah, you hit the nail on the head.

John W. Davis does all the wrong things for the Crash. Dems get tarred as the destroyers of the economy, and Hoover gets into office 1932.

A mixture of pre-Crash Progressive Republican ideology, the corporatist Efficiency Movement, some European style military-Keynesianism, and good ol' American populism makes up this TL's analogue to the New Deal.
 

HueyLong

Banned
1927

"I suppose I could have called in the Army to help, but why should I, when I only had to call on Main Street?"- Herbert Hoover

The Mississippi Flood was the event that would dominate the year. In it, Herbert Hoover would become a humanitarian hero, a Negro hero and a villain to much of the South.

Nearly 700,000 people were displaced, about half of them black.

Six states along the Mississippi called upon Hoover personally to lead the relief effort. Black Jack authorized the Commerce Secretary, "Under-Secretary of Damn Near Everything Else", to take on the relief, and declared martial law in the areas affected. Pershing gave two infamous orders: race was to be ignored in giving aid, and all refugee camps were to be desegregated.

Hoover quickly drew a number of private organizations into the relief effort. The Rockefeller Foundation provided grants for health units, to help with health problems in the Mississippi Watershed and in the refugee camps. The American Red Cross also took charge for treatment and sanitation. The Colored Advisory Commission, led by Robert Russa Moton, contributed teachers and temporary school-houses to the camp. Tuskegee University even took nearly 3000 refugees to their campus, most of them young and poorly educated, for temporary relief and attempts at education. The Refugee Barracks is still on the campus of the University. Tuskegee's relocation program is believed to have happened almost entirely on Hoover's order. Hoover allowed a number of churches to aid in the relocation of their members, and church tents were a common sight within the camps.

Hoover also founded a controversial emergency organization- the Labor Relocation Service. Acting primarily as a directory for employers, the Service found temporary employment for nearly seventy thousand people from the camps. Close to fifty thousand of those were black. The Service was controversial because it seemed to favor blacks- they were more likely to be hired temporarily for lower wages than were whites. Also, while black women were listed in the service, white women were not, so entire black families could often leave the camps after finding work somewhere else. It also inspired controversy over black vagrancy laws. Hoover blocked a number of cases that would have resulted in the arrests of black laborers, enflaming a number of states-rights Democrats with federal heavy-handedness.

By August 1927, the flood had mostly subsided, and Hoover ended martial law in the area. Hoover had made efforts to keep land holdings intact, even cancelling a number of sales made during the flood. He encouraged large landowners to allow sharecroppers to return, even if it meant supporting them off-season, to keep skilled labor in the area and prevent their immigration north.

"Herbert Hoover founded a Labor Army on the soil of These United States. It was an institution of blacks, of communists. This is what he offers the entire nation with his election."- John W. Davis

Many Democrats assaulted the heavy federal hand during the Flood, and especially the "anti-white" policies of the camps, with their desegregation and black favors. Despite their complaints, many whites had benefitted from Hoover's programs, black sharecroppers had returned to their system of submission on Hoover's efforts, and whites were still favored by many administrators under Hoover. The Greenville Incident had whites evacuated from a broken levee nearly three days before blacks were evacuated, and the man in charge of that Incident was never reprimanded.

Blacks were just as illogical in their praise following the Great Flood. Some blacks had been forced at gunpoint to work in the camps. Conditions were worse for blacks, and they often found work with old landlords under harsher contracts. There was the not often spoke about Greenville Incident. Robert Russa Moton and the Colored Advisory Commission still offered nothing but praise for Hoover's efforts. Tuskegee University increased in prestige for its housing of so many young refugees and their families and the Relocation Service enabled many of them to accumulate savings that would take them through the winter or even provide a long-term job, as well as escape the squalor of the camps.

Overall, Hoover handed the disaster well, with his attempts at racial justice thwarted by the reality of the situation. He set the Mississippi states up to recover later on, although they would still be poor before the Crash hit. He maintained the social status quo, for the most part, avoiding what could have been an upheaval following the flood.*

It is a historical irony that the Mississippi Flood decided his defeat against John W. Davis in 1928, but assured his victory in 1932. His record in the Mississippi Flood assured many of his credentials in handling a disaster like the Crash, especially after Davis' failed attempts (or lack thereof).

*And was in OTL...... broke the Mississippi states' labor supplies, and caused another Great Migration north
 
I like the timeline, but I don't think the Democrats will nominate the exact same dark-horse candidate in 1924 AND 1928.
 

HueyLong

Banned
John W. Davis stands out in between the two elections. He stands against the NHA, which becomes a big issue in between 1924 and 1928. He even becomes a major critic of Hoover's handling of the Mississippi Flood, and one of the foremost legal critics of centralism and state intervention in the social sphere.

By 1928, he isn't a dark horse. He is the dignified statesman of the South and the Democratic Party. He carries their banner of laissez-faire economics, small government and state's rights.

The Republicans kept Hoover after the Depression in OTL, and that was far more stupid and well, just seemingly implausible, isn't it? If someone wrote that in a TL, it would be called implausible. The Republicans kept nominating nobodies during the Depression and during WW2 also.
 
John W. Davis stands out in between the two elections. He stands against the NHA, which becomes a big issue in between 1924 and 1928. He even becomes a major critic of Hoover's handling of the Mississippi Flood, and one of the foremost legal critics of centralism and state intervention in the social sphere.

By 1928, he isn't a dark horse. He is the dignified statesman of the South and the Democratic Party. He carries their banner of laissez-faire economics, small government and state's rights.

The Republicans kept Hoover after the Depression in OTL, and that was far more stupid and well, just seemingly implausible, isn't it? If someone wrote that in a TL, it would be called implausible. The Republicans kept nominating nobodies during the Depression and during WW2 also.

Well, I still think nominating a candidate who has already lost once is a bit *meh*, but I suppose the Democrats have done it several times (Grover Cleveland, William Jennings Bryan, and Adlai Stevenson).

And it's not implausible to keep a sitting president on a ticket. The last sitting present to be dumped from a ticket was Johnson in 1868, and that was because he wasn't really a Republican anyway. Not too implausible.
 

HueyLong

Banned
Its implausible to keep a sitting president on after a huge crisis like the Stock Market Crash. Its pretty stupid to do so so, in fact. Its really kind of odd that Hoover had no opposition movement in the Republican Party in 1932.
 
Its implausible to keep a sitting president on after a huge crisis like the Stock Market Crash. Its pretty stupid to do so so, in fact. Its really kind of odd that Hoover had no opposition movement in the Republican Party in 1932.

Stupidity and implausibility are very different things. Many plausible things are stupid. This is a plausible thing that can be considered stupid, but the fact that unpopular incumbents such as Taft, Truman, and Carter have still been nominated after less-than-successful terms (one of them won, amazingly, and Carter was closer than the election results would indicate) and that no party's candidate has been dumped after a term in the White House in 150 years indicates that it is NOT implausible, but rather likely.
 
Hoover did have an opposition: many wanted to draft Coolidge, and former Maryland senator Joseph France put up an admittedly weak effort to challenge Hoover, but the fact is that sitting presidents have a HUGE control over their conventions.
 
Hmmmm...noticed you have Al Smith as a vice-presidential candidate. I think that's very unlikely, because as a big player, he thought that the vice-presidential spot wasn't worth losing the governorship of New York for.

May I recommend Charles Bryan (William Jennings Bryan's son), which would explain how Davis carried the West, or James Reed, senator of Missouri, who was well-known for coming out very strongly against government programs, which sounds very much like your John W. Davis.
 

HueyLong

Banned
Hmmmm...noticed you have Al Smith as a vice-presidential candidate. I think that's very unlikely, because as a big player, he thought that the vice-presidential spot wasn't worth losing the governorship of New York for.

May I recommend Charles Bryan (William Jennings Bryan's son), which would explain how Davis carried the West, or James Reed, senator of Missouri, who was well-known for coming out very strongly against government programs, which sounds very much like your John W. Davis.

I had never read anything about his opposition to the vice-presidential spot. I understood it was more about the party's opposition. Will have to look into that....

Problem is, Al would garner the large Catholic vote, which was integral to any Democratic electoral strategy. They need Northern urban centres, and James Reed (had never heard of him, knew about Charles Wayland Bryan though, who seemed destined to fail miserably) simply couldn't garner them.

Secondly, many of the papist fears about him are gone with the vice-presidency instead of the presidency. Note that with Robinson as VP he garnered a good spread of the nation, with a Southerner in the lead seat, they can do even better.

With the electoral jackpot of New York and the Solid South itself, they have a solid base. With the NHA, racial policies and the foreign quagmire, they have a much more open path than Smith alone had in OTL. The VP nomination is more valuable ITTL than in the less sure bets of the 20s.

The NHA is a big western policy. No one in the West really likes it, because it skips so much of their territory and reeks of the same problems the railroads had. They don't see much benefit, but see a lot of cost. This is one of the age old western problems, of subsidies to the East. You don't need a Western candidate with an issue like that. There is also the anti-Orientalism which has resurfaced on the West Coast, which is put off quite a bit by Black Jack's (and Hoover's) foreign policy.
 
I had never read anything about his opposition to the vice-presidential spot. I understood it was more about the party's opposition. Will have to look into that....

I recall seeing something about it in a book I've been reading on the 1932 Democratic convention.

Problem is, Al would garner the large Catholic vote, which was integral to any Democratic electoral strategy. They need Northern urban centres, and James Reed (had never heard of him, knew about Charles Wayland Bryan though, who seemed destined to fail miserably) simply couldn't garner them.

The problem is that the Solid South and Catholic vote are almost irreconcilable...Smith was the first Democratic candidate to lose multiple ex-CSA states in his defeat to Hoover in OTL.

Secondly, many of the papist fears about him are gone with the vice-presidency instead of the presidency. Note that with Robinson as VP he garnered a good spread of the nation, with a Southerner in the lead seat, they can do even better.

If he would be willing to be a Vice-President (doubtful, IMHO, given his prestige in the party), I still think there would be a negative effect in the South.

With the electoral jackpot of New York and the Solid South itself, they have a solid base. With the NHA, racial policies and the foreign quagmire, they have a much more open path than Smith alone had in OTL. The VP nomination is more valuable ITTL than in the less sure bets of the 20s.

Why is the VP slot more valuable?

The NHA is a big western policy. No one in the West really likes it, because it skips so much of their territory and reeks of the same problems the railroads had. They don't see much benefit, but see a lot of cost. This is one of the age old western problems, of subsidies to the East. You don't need a Western candidate with an issue like that. There is also the anti-Orientalism which has resurfaced on the West Coast, which is put off quite a bit by Black Jack's (and Hoover's) foreign policy.

The thing is that the Catholic and the Southern vote cannot be really reconciled well. However, with a little luck the West and South could unite to provide an electoral victory.

I wish I could find a non-Catholic Democratic politician in New York or New England...maybe FDR would be a good VP candidate, if his emergence in New York politics can be expedited?

Electoral examination:

Solid South and Border States (WV, MO, DE, MD): 176 electoral votes

That leaves a minimum of 90 to win the election.

If you take everything west of Minnesota and make it Democrat (could be done with a Bryan, Reed, or ever Hearst VP, combined with some populism), that gives you 93. Then again, if you can win the big eastern states without a Catholic candidate, that would be easier,

To finish off, I'd like to say I am deeply interested in the politics of this time period, so my criticism is not meant to derail you, I just care a lot. :)
 

HueyLong

Banned
He (Smith) won 10 of the largest cities in the US with a Western (rural) running mate. He made advances in Massachusetts and Rhode Island, two Republican strongholds.

The problem with 1928 is that IOTL it was an election almost completely without issues. The only real issue, Prohibition, was basically ignored by both parties and candidates to not rock the boat. Both candidates were wets who claimed at different times to be dry. The election was over personalities and identity. That is why Smith's Catholicism was so fatal.

With real issues ITTL (The NHA, withdrawal from China and Vladivostok and revived racial issues), the identity can easily be reconciled with politics.

The Democratic stance on the NHA draws votes in the South, the West and even the Old East. The South has states-rights (the Highways are owned by the Feds in TTL) and old regional abuses (railroads had charged special rates for Southern industry and agriculture, the route monopolies don't seem to offer anything different). The West has the simple fact that it recieves few of the highways anyways and still has to pay a good chunk of the costs (again, not handled by the states in TTL) The East has old shipping interests and a much more extensive rail system than the rest of the nation, so has less need for the NHA.

Black Jack's international policies have pushed the Republicans into a corner. They preached cutting themselves off from the world, but Black Jack forced the Party to recognize some commitments and those commitments simply haven't gone away. The West Coast in particular dislikes his support of Japan (or any Asian power, for that matter). The Dems get to preach isolationism this round, and can do so to good effect.

Race politics have been brought to the fore by the end of the 20s. Hoover and the Republicans are identified much more with Black patronage, because of the de-segregation order and the Mississippi Flood. This gives them the Black vote and lets them keep it, but angers much of the South and even some in the North, especially the urban poor. No one wanted to touch the Black vote for a long while in America, and there was a reason.

I don't mind the criticism, but think you're not looking at the changes from OTL's 20s and Black Jack's 20s. The 20s did not have an active President, the 20s did not have any great national project, the 20s did not change much from start to finish. They do here.

1928 is a different year.
 

HueyLong

Banned
China c. 1929


The Republic of China
is a dictatorship under Chiang-Kai-Shek and the Kuomintang. Much of China, excepting Manchuria, Mongolia, Shandong and Formosa, are under Chiang Kai-Shek's control. The Soviet Union cut all ties with the KMT in 1926, under Trotsky's orders.

The KMT has grown in membership and acceptance, especially with its populist revanchism. The KMT proclaims ownership of all of Mongolia, Manchuria and Shandong, as well as Formosa, Hong Kong and Macao. They are the only party currently involved in government, although there are separate factions, either regional or political, within the KMT.

However, there is a widening rift in Chinese politics. The All-China Communist Party (ACCP) has grown in power, with 2,000 members in 1929, although it is still dwarfed by the fifty-thousand strong membership of the KMT, as well as KMT domination of state. The ACCP has refused to take seats or government positions since 1927, under the suggestion of influential Trotskyist supporters. This abstentionist stand has not done much for the ACCP's popular image.

The Khanate of Mongolia is a dictatorship under the ninth Jebtsundamba Khutugtu, a four year old boy from Ugro (Ulaanbaatar), chosen by Japanese officials and Buddhist monks, breaking the tradition of finding a candidate from Tibet. The Japanese IJA 23rd Division is stationed in the Khanate, with White and Mongol auxiliaries (mainly light cavalry). Lt. General Michitaro Komatsubara serves in most functions as a governor.

The Mongolian People's Republic is led by Damdin Sukhbataar and control some of Western Mongolia. They have begun to be supplemented by Soviet Union forces. The People's Republic denies that the Ninth Jebtsundamba is a true reincarnation of the Bogd Khan.

The Empire of Japan
controls Manchuria, Inner Mongolia, Shandong province and Formosa. There is talk of redrawing the administration lines, and allowing the continental provinces some autonomy, but such ideas have not gone far. The Japanese hold many local leaders hostage, using them as mouthpieces for Japanese rule.

Hong Kong is ruled by the British. There are fears over a KMT-funded revolt in the colony, and the Republic of China has made demands for the British to return the city.

Macao is ruled by the Portuguese. The KMT has actively funded riots, and there is a large student movement to join the Republic. The Republic demands that the city be handed over.
 
Interesting TL Huey :)

I have curiosity how end this pure Trotskyst Soviet Union (as you can see in my PM my own project that is beginning is more of a factionalist Soviet Union leaded by Trotsky but where all a serie of factors cause him the necessity to pact with other factions).

Waiting new segments:)
 

HueyLong

Banned
Election of 1924

Electoral Votes
John J. Pershing (Republican) 363
John W. Davis (Democrat) 154
Robert M. LaFollette (Progressive) 13

1924.GIF
 

HueyLong

Banned
Election of 1928

Herbert Hoover (Republican) 220
John W. Davis (Democrat) 285
Robert M. LaFollette (Progressive) 26

Contentious States


California found itself the center of an electoral battle not between the Republicans and Democrats, but between the Republicans and Progressives. Hiram W. Johnson, as the vice-presidential candidate of the Progressives, did an extensive circuit of the state. He combined his Progressive ideals with isolationism and anti-immigration stands, lambasting Herbert Hoover's continuation of Black Jack's Oriental policies.

Michigan found itself pulled in all three directions. The Republicans and Progressives campaigned heavily in Detroit, which was viewed as a large NHA and VA supporter. Catholics voted almost unanimously for the Democrats, however, the black population of Detroit countered this. ("......for Smith.", Governor Chase Orson, future Vice-President of the United States was quoted as saying. The Upper Peninsula found a fight between Progressives and Democrats, trying to woo the poor rural voters there. The NHA was the prime issue, although issues of race came up often. Despite losing the state, the Republicans won the city of Detroit. This was not enough to oppose the poor rural majority aroused by the Democrats.

New York
founds its traditional rural/urban split shattered by the Democratic Campaign. New York City was won by the Democrats, over matters of race and the NHA (Later Democratic maverick Franklin Delano Roosevelt said the city was "won by Tammany Hall alone.") Albany and Buffalo, threatened by the NHA, also voted overwhelmingly against, over concerns of their own interests in Hudson and Great Lake shipping. It was generally feared that the NHA would circumvent these traditional avenues of trade. Many of the rural estates of New York voted Democratic, fearing the Progressive aims (and taxes) seen as the future agenda of the Republicans.

Kentucky, a Southern state that commonly voted Republican, found itself in much the same situation as Michigan. Louisville, situated as a terminus of the National Highways, was prophesied to vote Republican. The rural areas found Progressive and Democratic campaigns running at odds. However, traditional shipping interests and dockworkers in Louisville feared the severing of the Ohio as a trade artery, and so voted Democratic, and against the NHA. The rural voters found more in common with the race policies of the Democrats, even if they agreed with a number of Progressive reforms. The state voted Democratic.

Indiana was a free-for-all between the parties. Both Republicans and Democrats had been broken apart by the KKK crackdowns under Black Jack. The state found a considerable Socialist influence in the North, and Democratic domination of the South. However, the Republican control of much of Central Indiana assured the state would vote Republican, and large segments of the North voted for the Republicans for the NHA, which would connect them to the great cities of Ohio and Illinois. The odd confluence of radical Socialists and conservative Democrats, however, would have great effects after the Crash.

Interesting Facts

The Democratic campaign included one of the first and most effective political films- The Waters Perished. Directed by D.W. Griffith (uncredited) and paid for by a number of Democratic politicians, the film showed real footage of the conditions (of whites, mainly) in the Flood refugee camps, as well as footage of blacks under temporary labor and at Tuskegee University. Narrated by anonymous survivors in transition cards, it claimed that blacks were treated far better than whites by Hoover. It is widely viewed as one of the primary reasons behind the success of the Democrats in major cities.

Upton Sinclair delayed work on his book Boston to campaign for the Progressives in California.

Eugene V. Debs, written in as a protest vote by many youth during the election, died in January of 1929. His late death is often regarded as something which stole votes from the Progressives, and as such, an earlier death or a release from prison is a common what-if for many Republicans in the post-Crash years.

1928.GIF
 

HueyLong

Banned
A Bitter Revolution- Germany
"If there is a man destined to lead the Revolution in Europe, that man is Herr Thalmann."- Oswald Mosley

"Thalmann is a pathetic husk of a man. No wonder he is a communist."- Adolph Hitler


Ernst Thalmann's wife and child were killed in an attack by rightist paramilitary groups on his apartment in June 1922. Ernst Thalmann went into a depression that would last for nearly a year before returning to political life.

He did so with a new sense of purpose. He became the Commander of the Rotfrontkampferbund in 1924, passing up more passive appointments by a sympathetic party leadership. He supported an active resistance to a number of rightist groups, including the NSDAP. The RFKB became increasingly loyal to Thalmann alone.

In 1927, Trotsky forced the abstentionist stand upon the KPD, and supported Thalmann as General Secretary of the Party. Thalmann accepted the appointment, and withdrew the party from the election. Dissenting members of the Party were blackmailed into withdrawing from elections as independents by the M-apparat, the secret police of the KPD, with kidnapping and torture as common tools. "The Party is your life."

In 1928, Thalmann restructured the Party. The M-apparat was expanded greatly with new plainclothes "levies" (working class members promoted and paid by the Party), and was put under the direction of Walter Ulbricht, "a man lacking just enough scruples." The M-apparat began to sabotage a number of SPD rallies and started a campaign of terror among many SPD organizers. The Rotfrontkampferbund was regimentalized and militarized further, and placed under the personal command of the General Manager, a new position created for and occupied by Thalmann.

With the Crash impending, Thalmann and the KPD would find greater success than many. Their removal from government distanced them from the gross mismanagement that was the Crash. The new panic would revive the calls for revolution. Their only real rivals for power would be the NSDAP in the years to come.
 

HueyLong

Banned
1929

"We stand now poised to remove the vice that was the twenties, Black Jack's Twenties."- John W. Davis's Inaugural Address, delivered to Congress in writing

A crash in land speculation and prices around the NHA occured immediately following John W. Davis's inauguration. A bill to cancel funds to the NHA failed in Congress, although land prices did not recover. Funding was, however, dropped considerably and the NHA Director-General was scrapped, to be replaced by a Congressional Committee on the National Highways (The Committee was composed almost entirely of anti-NHA Democrats).

John W. Davis vetoed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act on October 29.

The DOW Jones Industrial Average peaked at 384.25 on September 4. The average would drop around 20% over the next month, finally crashing quickly on October 31. Black Thursday had happened.

November 1, All-Saints Day, saw the meeting of influential traders to halt the Panic. The meeting included Thomas W. LaMont (Head of Morgan Bank), Albert Wiggin (Head of Chase National), Charles E. Mitchell (head of National City) and Richard Whitney (vice-president of the Stock Exchange) Using money fronted by the bankers, Whitney bought a number of prominent stocks at well above market place. Some followed his lead, but the system soon crashed once again.

John W. Davis called what would be named the Business Congress on November 6. Meeting with members of the Rockefeller and DuPonte families, as well as prominent businessmen such as William C. Durant, he encouraged these financial giants to speculate positively in the market.

The market continued to plunge. The DuPontes and Rockefellers lost millions in their speculative attempts.
 
Top