Bjorko two years earlier

[LordKalvert]

During the Russo-Japanese War the Kaiser and the Tsar (who latter renounced it) signed an alliance at Bjorko pledging defense against any European aggressor.
This was a bad time for Russia having been involved in the Japanese War but what would have happened if the Kaiser had made the offer two years earlier-the phrase "European aggressor" would probably have to have been changed to "or any power supported by a European power" to cover the prospect of a Japanese attack

Does France, reluctantly, agree to join? This is after all would be before the Entente accords are signed so the colonial differences with England would remain.

What would the Italian and Austrian reactions be?

And finally, what would the British and the Japanese do? would Japan still risk it? Would the British back off and tell the Japanese that they are now on their own?

 

[raharris1973]

what would have happened if the Kaiser had made the offer two years earlier-the phrase "European aggressor" would probably have to have been changed to "or any power supported by a European power" to cover the prospect of a Japanese attack

a reasonable modification

Does France, reluctantly, agree to join?

yes-

This is after all would be before the Entente accords are signed so the colonial differences with England would remain.

because of this

BTW, as a direct or indirect coalition partner, Germany in this ATL will probably just endorse French claims to Morrocco with little hassle.

What would the Italian and Austrian reactions be?

Italy- renew Triple Alliance, and tack closely to the continental coalition, but at all costs avoid a commitment to fight Britain.

And finally, what would the British and the Japanese do?

be alarmed and upset.

would Japan still risk it?

an attack on Russia- no. In fact Japan would likely come to accept any Russian offer that grants them a sphere of influence over Seoul and southern Korea. (In OTL, Russia, in a somewhat less advantageous position, offered to partition influence in Korea between a neutral zone north of Pyongyang and a Japanese zone to the south)

Would the British back off and tell the Japanese that they are now on their own?

They will try their darnedest to avoid explicitly repudiating commitments, but will be signaling consistently that they do not want a conflict.

 

[LordKalvert]

a reasonable modification


BTW, as a direct or indirect coalition partner, Germany in this ATL will probably just endorse French claims to Morrocco with little hassle.

I'm sure the Germans could support a French claim to Morocco if they got some compensation elsewhere- the Portuguese, Dutch or Belgian colonial possessions for example.

Italy- renew Triple Alliance, and tack closely to the continental coalition, but at all costs avoid a commitment to fight Britain.

Such a continental coalition would be overpowering on both land and sea. The Italians might not want to fight England or they might decide that this is going to lead to the partition of the British Empire. Perhaps they could angle for Egypt as their share of the spoils

be alarmed and upset.

Extremely so. Their position would become almost hopeless

[/Quote]
an attack on Russia- no. In fact Japan would likely come to accept any Russian offer that grants them a sphere of influence over Seoul and southern Korea. (In OTL, Russia, in a somewhat less advantageous position, offered to partition influence in Korea between a neutral zone north of Pyongyang and a Japanese zone to the south)



They will try their darnedest to avoid explicitly repudiating commitments, but will be signaling consistently that they do not want a conflict.[/QUOTE]

Japan becomes the wild card They need to fight Russia in the next two years or they are toast so they are inclined to fight. They might even be more willing to fight if they knew Britain would have to fight as well- the Far East wouldn't be the main theater and they wouldn't have to put too much effort into it.

Everyone's focus is going to be in Europe and I doubt if the British are really going to go to war with the continent over Korea. They might try to find a weasel clause or the government could simply fall

The British were widely hated and despised on the continent- Russia, Germany and France for sure but there's also Spain- furious about British behavior during the American War and the Italians- who weren't all that happy with what Britain had done for them in Ethiopia.

In all such coalitions, the primary question becomes "Who is going to win?" and I don't see too many people backing the Anglo-Japanese