That would be correct. It also presents other possible implications down the line as well with Giffords not being forced to resign her seat and being able to recover quicker.
Bin Laden is Dead and GM is Alive: An Alternate 2010 Midterm TL
- Thread starter Usili
- Start date
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- 2010 midterm
That would be correct. It also presents other possible implications down the line as well with Giffords not being forced to resign her seat and being able to recover quicker.
III: Grassroots and Democrats
III: Grassroots and Democrats
For the Democrats, the 2010 midterms were a heavy blow from governors to Congress to statehouses. Republicans would gain two governorships [1], four senators [2], and forty-nine representatives in gubernatorial and congressional elections. In addition, Republicans had gained four hundred and thirty state legislature seats, but the Democrats would remain in control of either one or both houses in twenty-six states (Benjaming Chipman would coalition with the Democrats, giving the Democrats control of the House in Maine).
For President Obama, the impact in the midterms represented detriments to both Organizing for America and the Democratic National Committee. Organizing for America had emerged as the grassroots arm of the DNC, maintaining their own department and email list. But in the crescendo of the campaign and aftermath, Organizing for America maintained one significant advantage over the DNC, arguably getting the vote out. Margins in numerous races had tightened up to a degree, with an arguably higher amount of first-time voters having come out than before, putting a key feather for OFA. But to such a scale however, it had still been a series of disastrous impacts for the Democrats as a whole in Congress. Considerations had to be placed upon the OFA for what they could do better ahead of 2012, which would be vital in regaining the necessary seats in Congress and in the Statehouses in order to push forward Obama's agenda. However, with the Democrats having become the minority party in the House again, calls had been starting to emerge within the DNC and among Democrats that the OFA needed to mobilize and stay mobilized throughout the next two years to support Obama's agenda. They had to keep the pressure on the Republicans in order to force them to consider accepting Obama's agenda and bills put forth by the Democrats in both House and Senate.
The Chair of the Democratic National Committee, Tim Kaine, had become so at Obama's request (and having been a finalist for the Vice Presidential slot, which ultimately went to Biden). For Tim Kaine, the major goal had arguably been to integrate the Organization for America (which had been Obama's principle campaign arm) into the DNC, which had been a significant conflict. Conflict had emerged to a certain degree among the state parties and OFA, over claims that the OFA was taking more in terms of the dollars available to the DNC than what was allowed per the state parties. Further issues had emerged in that the issues that were being pushed by the OFA (in terms of campaign ads being aired) were in turn impacting the state parties to a major degree. What would be done to an extent would be to bring the OFA in even further, with a single staffer being assigned to each state party for organization. The 2009 gubernatorial elections (in which both his former seat in Virginia and the New Jersey governor's seat were lost to Republicans) and the impact from the 2010 midterms did weigh heavily against him, although not to the degree that was expected. He had sufficiently outraised the Republicans by nearly $30 million, but attacks had been called that Kaine had arguably not gotten the money for where it needed to go.
Despite the midterms having been completed, for Tim Kaine, he would again be faced issues for the upcoming 2012 Senate elections in Virginia. Incumbent Senator Jim Webb had been starting to make it clear he would not run for reelection, and significant concerns were mounting over the fact that the Democrats specifically needed someone who would run again to take that seat back. For numerous Democrats throughout Virginia along with those nationally would begin significantly urging for Tim Kaine to run in the primary and Senate election, but he held his own doubts about running again, and would make it clear in private that he would not run for the 2012 Democratic Senate primary. With the decision being made in private, the focus of the likeliest candidate for the Democrats to win in 2012 (in both the primary and general) had shifted to Representative Tom Perriello of Virginia's 5th congressional district. He had won by nearly 1,200 votes (compared to a margin of 787 votes in 2008), with independent Jeffrey A. Clark having managed to garner enough votes from State Senator Robert A. Hurt for Perriello to win. Perriello represented someone who had outperformed in Republican districts, twice; but his rhetoric of populism v. corporatism, represented something of a pause considering his own attacks against the 'brass' of the party. However, with former Governor Kaine having made it clear he would not run, the 2012 Democratic Senate primary in Virginia is likely expected to be anything but normal, with it being expected to be a heavily contentious affair for who could win the Senate seat.
[1] Republicans gained Iowa (Terry Branstad), Kansas (Sam Brownback), Michigan (Rick Snyder), New Mexico (Susana Martinez), Oklahoma (Mary Fallin), Pennsylvania (Tom Corbett), Wisconsin (Scott Walker), and Wyoming (Matt Mead); Democrats however had gained California (Jerry Brown), Connecticut (Dan Malloy), Florida (Alex Sink), Minnesota (Mark Dayton) and Vermont (Peter Shumlin). Alongside that, Rhode Island had been won by an Independent (Lincoln Chaffee) from a Republican governor while Maine had been won by an Independent (Eliot Cutler) from a Democratic governor.
[2] Republicans gained Arkansas (John Boozman), Indiana (Dan Coats), North Dakota (Byron Dorgan), and Wisconsin (Ron Johnson), while Democrats gained no seats.
For the Democrats, the 2010 midterms were a heavy blow from governors to Congress to statehouses. Republicans would gain two governorships [1], four senators [2], and forty-nine representatives in gubernatorial and congressional elections. In addition, Republicans had gained four hundred and thirty state legislature seats, but the Democrats would remain in control of either one or both houses in twenty-six states (Benjaming Chipman would coalition with the Democrats, giving the Democrats control of the House in Maine).
For President Obama, the impact in the midterms represented detriments to both Organizing for America and the Democratic National Committee. Organizing for America had emerged as the grassroots arm of the DNC, maintaining their own department and email list. But in the crescendo of the campaign and aftermath, Organizing for America maintained one significant advantage over the DNC, arguably getting the vote out. Margins in numerous races had tightened up to a degree, with an arguably higher amount of first-time voters having come out than before, putting a key feather for OFA. But to such a scale however, it had still been a series of disastrous impacts for the Democrats as a whole in Congress. Considerations had to be placed upon the OFA for what they could do better ahead of 2012, which would be vital in regaining the necessary seats in Congress and in the Statehouses in order to push forward Obama's agenda. However, with the Democrats having become the minority party in the House again, calls had been starting to emerge within the DNC and among Democrats that the OFA needed to mobilize and stay mobilized throughout the next two years to support Obama's agenda. They had to keep the pressure on the Republicans in order to force them to consider accepting Obama's agenda and bills put forth by the Democrats in both House and Senate.
The Chair of the Democratic National Committee, Tim Kaine, had become so at Obama's request (and having been a finalist for the Vice Presidential slot, which ultimately went to Biden). For Tim Kaine, the major goal had arguably been to integrate the Organization for America (which had been Obama's principle campaign arm) into the DNC, which had been a significant conflict. Conflict had emerged to a certain degree among the state parties and OFA, over claims that the OFA was taking more in terms of the dollars available to the DNC than what was allowed per the state parties. Further issues had emerged in that the issues that were being pushed by the OFA (in terms of campaign ads being aired) were in turn impacting the state parties to a major degree. What would be done to an extent would be to bring the OFA in even further, with a single staffer being assigned to each state party for organization. The 2009 gubernatorial elections (in which both his former seat in Virginia and the New Jersey governor's seat were lost to Republicans) and the impact from the 2010 midterms did weigh heavily against him, although not to the degree that was expected. He had sufficiently outraised the Republicans by nearly $30 million, but attacks had been called that Kaine had arguably not gotten the money for where it needed to go.
Despite the midterms having been completed, for Tim Kaine, he would again be faced issues for the upcoming 2012 Senate elections in Virginia. Incumbent Senator Jim Webb had been starting to make it clear he would not run for reelection, and significant concerns were mounting over the fact that the Democrats specifically needed someone who would run again to take that seat back. For numerous Democrats throughout Virginia along with those nationally would begin significantly urging for Tim Kaine to run in the primary and Senate election, but he held his own doubts about running again, and would make it clear in private that he would not run for the 2012 Democratic Senate primary. With the decision being made in private, the focus of the likeliest candidate for the Democrats to win in 2012 (in both the primary and general) had shifted to Representative Tom Perriello of Virginia's 5th congressional district. He had won by nearly 1,200 votes (compared to a margin of 787 votes in 2008), with independent Jeffrey A. Clark having managed to garner enough votes from State Senator Robert A. Hurt for Perriello to win. Perriello represented someone who had outperformed in Republican districts, twice; but his rhetoric of populism v. corporatism, represented something of a pause considering his own attacks against the 'brass' of the party. However, with former Governor Kaine having made it clear he would not run, the 2012 Democratic Senate primary in Virginia is likely expected to be anything but normal, with it being expected to be a heavily contentious affair for who could win the Senate seat.
[1] Republicans gained Iowa (Terry Branstad), Kansas (Sam Brownback), Michigan (Rick Snyder), New Mexico (Susana Martinez), Oklahoma (Mary Fallin), Pennsylvania (Tom Corbett), Wisconsin (Scott Walker), and Wyoming (Matt Mead); Democrats however had gained California (Jerry Brown), Connecticut (Dan Malloy), Florida (Alex Sink), Minnesota (Mark Dayton) and Vermont (Peter Shumlin). Alongside that, Rhode Island had been won by an Independent (Lincoln Chaffee) from a Republican governor while Maine had been won by an Independent (Eliot Cutler) from a Democratic governor.
[2] Republicans gained Arkansas (John Boozman), Indiana (Dan Coats), North Dakota (Byron Dorgan), and Wisconsin (Ron Johnson), while Democrats gained no seats.
IV: From Self Immolation to War
IV: From Self Immolation to War
“On December 17th, 2010, Mohamed Bouazizi would light himself on fire in front of the governor's office in Sidi Bouzid, Tunisia. Mohamed Bouazizi was a street vendor, selling produce to support his family; at the time, the town of Sidi Bouzid was suffering roughly a 30% unemployment rate. On the morning of the 17th, Bouazizi would find himself suffering under the harassment of police once more (this had been something of a constant since he had begun selling produce at the age of 10). Considering the purchase of the produce the night before had left him in debt, he would not have the funds in order to bribe the police with his scales being confiscated and his produce cart confiscated. Bouazizi would go to the governor's office to complain and to ask for his scales back, but the governor would refuse to see him. Continued refusals would see Bouazizi purchase a can of gasoline from the local gas station and arrive in front of the governor's office, and would shout, "How do you expect me to make a living?" Immediately following the statement, Bouazizi would light himself on fire. He would eventually die on January 4th, 2011. The death of Bouazizi would be considered the ignition of what would become known as the 'Arab Spring'.”-A Look at the Arab Spring Five Years After
The success of the Tunisian Revolution with the removal of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali on January 14th, would have many turn their eyes to gaze upon Egypt as the next country to see such a 'revolution'. President Hosni Mubarak had been in power since 1981 ever since the assassination of Anwar El Sadat in 1981, and the National Democratic Party had maintained their party as Egypt had found itself transformed into a single-party state. Since the assassination of Sadat, emergency law had been maintained in Egypt constantly by Mubarak, claiming the threat of terrorism for the reason of constant extensions; emergency law in Egypt extended police powers, suspended constitutional rights, legalized censorship, abolished habeas corpus, and severely limited non-governmental political activity which included demonstration. The 2010 parliamentary elections in Egypt (held in December) would arguably be the near tipping point, with significant government harassment and fraud alongside refusal for any kind of monitoring of the polls by international observers.
In Egypt, the protests would begin on January 25th intended to coincide with National Police Day, and would become known as the 'Day of Revolt'. Protests would take place across numerous cities, with protests against the abuses committed by the police, demands for the resignation of the entire Ministry of the Interior, the restoration of a fair minimum wage, the end of the emergency law, and term limits for the President. From January 29th to February 11th, the protests would rapidly intensify as a deathtoll began to emerge and rise from it. On February 11th, Vice President Omar Suleiman would announce Mubarak's resignation with the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces to be entrusted leadership of Egypt, which would be met with loud rejoicing. On the 13th, the Supreme Council would dissolve Egypt's parliament and suspend the constitution per the demands of the protestors, with them declaring that they would rule for six months or until elections could be held (whichever came first). The referendum was declared to be held on March 19th, and Prime Minister Ahmed Shafik would step away on March 3rd, to be replaced by Transportation Minister Essam Sharif. However, the news coming out of Libya would begin to greatly concern the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces...
Like Egypt, the death of Mohamed Bouazizi and the Tunisian Revolution would inspire many in Libya. Muammar Gaddafi had emerged to power as the head of the 'Free Officers', removing King Idris I in a 'bloodless coup' in 1969. From 1969 to 1977, he remained in power and then stepped down and claimed to be merely a 'symbolic figurehead' for the government since 1977. While Libya was 'technically' supposed to be an indirect democracy, Gaddafi had manipulated the systems to such an extent to ensure dominance within Libya. This included the placing of relatives and members of his own tribe in central positions in both government and the military, maintaining a delicate balance where he remained the head. His concerns of a military coup were significant, and reflected among the Libyan military. The Libyan Army totaled 50,000 personnel, and the core of it were four brigades composed of highly-trained and equipped soldiers entirely loyal to Muammar Gaddafi. The rest of the army on the other hand was poorly armed and trained in comparison to the four 'loyalist' brigades.
The protests in Libya would begin from January 13th to January 16th, taking place in numerous cities over delays in housing construction and political corruption, breaking into and occupying numerous housing projects then under construction. Protests would emerge again on February 2nd, and would return again and intensify even further on the 15th in Benghazi. The protests in Benghazi would be against the arrest of human rights lawyer, Fathi Terbil with up to six hundred protestors organizing before police forces would disperse them with water cannons. Protests would also emerge out of both Bayda and Zintan, setting fire to police and government buildings. Protests would intensify even further, and by the 18th, police and army personnel would leave Benghazi. The escalation would intensify even further, with the formation of the National Transition Council on February 27th to consolidate efforts for the change in rule of Libya. By the end of February, Gaddafi had lost Benghazi, Tobruk, Bayda, Misrata, and other important cities, and a death toll begin to rapidly mount among the protests and apparent formation of a civil war in Libya.
By March 6th, Gaddafi had moved into a counterattack against the rebels, being halted at Bin Jawad and see continued movement of his forces up to Benghazi by the 17th. At this point, the rapidly-emerging Libyan Civil War had started to become a major international issue and demands had started to rapidly mount for supporting the rebels against the Gaddafi government. The first resolution passed had been the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1970, which condemned the use of lethal force by Gaddafi against the protestors and to impose international standards on Libya in response. But the most important one to support the rebels in such a civil war, was a United Nations Security Council Resolution which would establish a no-fly zone over Libya and to demand in immediate ceasefire between the rebels and Gaddafi and to serve as a basis for an 'international intervention' into Libya. The Resolution would be pushed. While having initially been proposed by Lebanon, France, and the United Kingdom, it had been taken up and supported by the United States in a determined effort for intervention into Libya. One of the biggest issues was the arguable threat of a veto by the Russian Federation which would doom such efforts. When the vote came up on March 17th, it was made clear what the Russians had thought of it. They had vetoed the resolution. There would be no intervention into Libya from what was seen.
While NATO was left in much of a quandary (primarily with the United States moving towards continuing to press internationally, with the United Kingdom and France insisting on intervention even without the UN), it was arguably in Egypt that would see the first actions. By March 21st, Benghazi had been crushed and the rebels were in full retreat. With the rapidly mounting concerns of a possible refugee crisis into Egypt from the rebels which would likely further destabilize the country and concerns over it heightening the slow moving process, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces would be forced to act. They would immediately inform Libya that they had forty-eight hours to withdraw from Benghazi or face immediate military action on March 22nd. With it made clear that Gaddafi refused to do so, on March 24th, Egypt would announce a declaration of war against Libya in order for an intervention to remove the Gaddafi government and to support the rebels.
The intervention of Egypt was to force action from the other side of Libya, that being Algeria. While President Abdelaziz Bouteflika had been facing protests (having been President since 1999 and having presided over the end of the Algerian Civil War), much of the bloodshed and anger spilled in the Algerian Civil War had drastically reduced the kind of action that would be maintained against the government. Such actions were a mixture of protests and riots, but unlike in Tunisia, Libya, or Egypt had not been organized into anything substantial. Algeria had significant relations with Libya, having been the one of two nations (with the other being Syria) in the Arab League to steadfastly refuse the no-fly zone over Libya. The immediate threat of war against Libya by Egypt put significant concerns over a possible Egyptian-influenced Libya, which would be a significant threat to security with Algeria. This would be to some extent backed by the military, and would follow with an announcement that unless Egypt promised to withdraw that they would intervene to protect Libya from the 'warmongering Egyptians' on March 27th. On March 30th, they would announce a declaration of war against Egypt to protect the nation of Libya from 'Egyptian aggression' and 'intent to remove a standing government'.
The North African War had begun.
“On December 17th, 2010, Mohamed Bouazizi would light himself on fire in front of the governor's office in Sidi Bouzid, Tunisia. Mohamed Bouazizi was a street vendor, selling produce to support his family; at the time, the town of Sidi Bouzid was suffering roughly a 30% unemployment rate. On the morning of the 17th, Bouazizi would find himself suffering under the harassment of police once more (this had been something of a constant since he had begun selling produce at the age of 10). Considering the purchase of the produce the night before had left him in debt, he would not have the funds in order to bribe the police with his scales being confiscated and his produce cart confiscated. Bouazizi would go to the governor's office to complain and to ask for his scales back, but the governor would refuse to see him. Continued refusals would see Bouazizi purchase a can of gasoline from the local gas station and arrive in front of the governor's office, and would shout, "How do you expect me to make a living?" Immediately following the statement, Bouazizi would light himself on fire. He would eventually die on January 4th, 2011. The death of Bouazizi would be considered the ignition of what would become known as the 'Arab Spring'.”-A Look at the Arab Spring Five Years After
The success of the Tunisian Revolution with the removal of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali on January 14th, would have many turn their eyes to gaze upon Egypt as the next country to see such a 'revolution'. President Hosni Mubarak had been in power since 1981 ever since the assassination of Anwar El Sadat in 1981, and the National Democratic Party had maintained their party as Egypt had found itself transformed into a single-party state. Since the assassination of Sadat, emergency law had been maintained in Egypt constantly by Mubarak, claiming the threat of terrorism for the reason of constant extensions; emergency law in Egypt extended police powers, suspended constitutional rights, legalized censorship, abolished habeas corpus, and severely limited non-governmental political activity which included demonstration. The 2010 parliamentary elections in Egypt (held in December) would arguably be the near tipping point, with significant government harassment and fraud alongside refusal for any kind of monitoring of the polls by international observers.
In Egypt, the protests would begin on January 25th intended to coincide with National Police Day, and would become known as the 'Day of Revolt'. Protests would take place across numerous cities, with protests against the abuses committed by the police, demands for the resignation of the entire Ministry of the Interior, the restoration of a fair minimum wage, the end of the emergency law, and term limits for the President. From January 29th to February 11th, the protests would rapidly intensify as a deathtoll began to emerge and rise from it. On February 11th, Vice President Omar Suleiman would announce Mubarak's resignation with the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces to be entrusted leadership of Egypt, which would be met with loud rejoicing. On the 13th, the Supreme Council would dissolve Egypt's parliament and suspend the constitution per the demands of the protestors, with them declaring that they would rule for six months or until elections could be held (whichever came first). The referendum was declared to be held on March 19th, and Prime Minister Ahmed Shafik would step away on March 3rd, to be replaced by Transportation Minister Essam Sharif. However, the news coming out of Libya would begin to greatly concern the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces...
Like Egypt, the death of Mohamed Bouazizi and the Tunisian Revolution would inspire many in Libya. Muammar Gaddafi had emerged to power as the head of the 'Free Officers', removing King Idris I in a 'bloodless coup' in 1969. From 1969 to 1977, he remained in power and then stepped down and claimed to be merely a 'symbolic figurehead' for the government since 1977. While Libya was 'technically' supposed to be an indirect democracy, Gaddafi had manipulated the systems to such an extent to ensure dominance within Libya. This included the placing of relatives and members of his own tribe in central positions in both government and the military, maintaining a delicate balance where he remained the head. His concerns of a military coup were significant, and reflected among the Libyan military. The Libyan Army totaled 50,000 personnel, and the core of it were four brigades composed of highly-trained and equipped soldiers entirely loyal to Muammar Gaddafi. The rest of the army on the other hand was poorly armed and trained in comparison to the four 'loyalist' brigades.
The protests in Libya would begin from January 13th to January 16th, taking place in numerous cities over delays in housing construction and political corruption, breaking into and occupying numerous housing projects then under construction. Protests would emerge again on February 2nd, and would return again and intensify even further on the 15th in Benghazi. The protests in Benghazi would be against the arrest of human rights lawyer, Fathi Terbil with up to six hundred protestors organizing before police forces would disperse them with water cannons. Protests would also emerge out of both Bayda and Zintan, setting fire to police and government buildings. Protests would intensify even further, and by the 18th, police and army personnel would leave Benghazi. The escalation would intensify even further, with the formation of the National Transition Council on February 27th to consolidate efforts for the change in rule of Libya. By the end of February, Gaddafi had lost Benghazi, Tobruk, Bayda, Misrata, and other important cities, and a death toll begin to rapidly mount among the protests and apparent formation of a civil war in Libya.
By March 6th, Gaddafi had moved into a counterattack against the rebels, being halted at Bin Jawad and see continued movement of his forces up to Benghazi by the 17th. At this point, the rapidly-emerging Libyan Civil War had started to become a major international issue and demands had started to rapidly mount for supporting the rebels against the Gaddafi government. The first resolution passed had been the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1970, which condemned the use of lethal force by Gaddafi against the protestors and to impose international standards on Libya in response. But the most important one to support the rebels in such a civil war, was a United Nations Security Council Resolution which would establish a no-fly zone over Libya and to demand in immediate ceasefire between the rebels and Gaddafi and to serve as a basis for an 'international intervention' into Libya. The Resolution would be pushed. While having initially been proposed by Lebanon, France, and the United Kingdom, it had been taken up and supported by the United States in a determined effort for intervention into Libya. One of the biggest issues was the arguable threat of a veto by the Russian Federation which would doom such efforts. When the vote came up on March 17th, it was made clear what the Russians had thought of it. They had vetoed the resolution. There would be no intervention into Libya from what was seen.
While NATO was left in much of a quandary (primarily with the United States moving towards continuing to press internationally, with the United Kingdom and France insisting on intervention even without the UN), it was arguably in Egypt that would see the first actions. By March 21st, Benghazi had been crushed and the rebels were in full retreat. With the rapidly mounting concerns of a possible refugee crisis into Egypt from the rebels which would likely further destabilize the country and concerns over it heightening the slow moving process, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces would be forced to act. They would immediately inform Libya that they had forty-eight hours to withdraw from Benghazi or face immediate military action on March 22nd. With it made clear that Gaddafi refused to do so, on March 24th, Egypt would announce a declaration of war against Libya in order for an intervention to remove the Gaddafi government and to support the rebels.
The intervention of Egypt was to force action from the other side of Libya, that being Algeria. While President Abdelaziz Bouteflika had been facing protests (having been President since 1999 and having presided over the end of the Algerian Civil War), much of the bloodshed and anger spilled in the Algerian Civil War had drastically reduced the kind of action that would be maintained against the government. Such actions were a mixture of protests and riots, but unlike in Tunisia, Libya, or Egypt had not been organized into anything substantial. Algeria had significant relations with Libya, having been the one of two nations (with the other being Syria) in the Arab League to steadfastly refuse the no-fly zone over Libya. The immediate threat of war against Libya by Egypt put significant concerns over a possible Egyptian-influenced Libya, which would be a significant threat to security with Algeria. This would be to some extent backed by the military, and would follow with an announcement that unless Egypt promised to withdraw that they would intervene to protect Libya from the 'warmongering Egyptians' on March 27th. On March 30th, they would announce a declaration of war against Egypt to protect the nation of Libya from 'Egyptian aggression' and 'intent to remove a standing government'.
The North African War had begun.
If referring to pure numbers in terms of army sizes, both are roughly equal I believe. Materially speaking, Egypt has an advantage over that of Algeria and Gaddafi. Egypt however does have a much harder need of focusing domestically, thus impacting them to a certain extent.
Perhaps, perhaps. Will depends on what happens.
As a spoiler for next update, we'll be on our way to see the beginnings of the 2012 Republican primaries with the exploratory committees underway and possibly some initial announcements at those running and not running.
Zachanassian
Gone Fishin'
So, we've got Muammar Gaddafi backed by Algeria vs. the Libyan Rebels backed by Egypt-in-turmoil. With the assumption that Syria is going to play out roughly along OTL. Medditeranean Refuge Crisis three years early, anyone?
V: Twitterlude
This is more of an experiment if anything in terms of a chapter, and will be interested in hearing your thoughts on it.
V: Twitterlude
“Speculations over Republican primaries intensify with rumors that Governor Christie to form exploratory committee in coming weeks.”-@AP, 12/7/10
“Shame over 'failures' voted for DREAM Act! Support Obama, who wasn't born in country!”-@realdonaldtrump, 12/29/10
“Release of article by Newsweek on Ambassador Huntsman, spells intrigue over possible Presidential run.”-@CNN, 1/1/11
“Fmr. Gov. Palin suffers likely impacts following shooting of Rep. Giffords; claims she did not do or 'inspire' it.”-@AP, 1/18/11
“Ambassador Jon Huntsman Jr. submits formal resignation for ambassadorship; sources point to explore Presidential bid.”-@CNN, 1/31/11
“Polls suggest no clear front-runner for Republicans yet; Huckabee, Romney, Palin among front-runners.”-@NYT, 2/15/11
“Rumors ignite from Indiana over possibilities either Governor Daniels or Representative Pence could be drafted against Romney.”-@WashingtonPost, 3/12/11
“Fmr. Gov. Pawlenty announces creation of exploratory committee for 2012 presidential run.”-@AP, 3/21/11
“Should not go into conflict in Africa started by Egypt! Focus home and not fight against sitting leader Gaddafi!”-@realdonaldtrump, 3/29/11
“Fmr. Gov. Romney announces in speech will not be seeking nomination for President.”-@CNN, 3/31/11
V: Twitterlude
“Speculations over Republican primaries intensify with rumors that Governor Christie to form exploratory committee in coming weeks.”-@AP, 12/7/10
“Shame over 'failures' voted for DREAM Act! Support Obama, who wasn't born in country!”-@realdonaldtrump, 12/29/10
“Release of article by Newsweek on Ambassador Huntsman, spells intrigue over possible Presidential run.”-@CNN, 1/1/11
“Fmr. Gov. Palin suffers likely impacts following shooting of Rep. Giffords; claims she did not do or 'inspire' it.”-@AP, 1/18/11
“Ambassador Jon Huntsman Jr. submits formal resignation for ambassadorship; sources point to explore Presidential bid.”-@CNN, 1/31/11
“Polls suggest no clear front-runner for Republicans yet; Huckabee, Romney, Palin among front-runners.”-@NYT, 2/15/11
“Rumors ignite from Indiana over possibilities either Governor Daniels or Representative Pence could be drafted against Romney.”-@WashingtonPost, 3/12/11
“Fmr. Gov. Pawlenty announces creation of exploratory committee for 2012 presidential run.”-@AP, 3/21/11
“Should not go into conflict in Africa started by Egypt! Focus home and not fight against sitting leader Gaddafi!”-@realdonaldtrump, 3/29/11
“Fmr. Gov. Romney announces in speech will not be seeking nomination for President.”-@CNN, 3/31/11
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Zioneer
Banned
Good stuff, though I'm not sure what "likely impacts" in the Gabbards note is supposed to mean.
VI: Finding a Frontrunner
VI: Finding a Frontrunner
The announcement that Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) would not be running in the 2012 Republican Primary sent shock waves throughout the establishment of the party, who had long been expecting him to run following his failed campaign in 2008, which saw Senator John McCain win. It had been something of a shock, yet for many among the Republican establishment, they had no wish for running and this would rapidly present itself as concerning to many. Three figures who had been discussed as possible challengers to Mitt Romney, Governors Mitch Daniels (of Indiana) and Chris Christie (of New Jersey) along with Representative Mike Pence (of Indiana) had started leaning heavily against running. For many in the 'establishment' of the party, it was of something of a panic as they rapidly sought to desire someone who could both work for national security credentials and as someone who could likely 'stand' against the more... extreme candidates in the primary. Both Ambassador Huntsman Jr. and Former Governor Tim Pawlenty were figures who had significant flaws, and for many brought worries over the loss they would face against the Democrats. Immediately, three choices would be determined for whom the Republicans could try to convince to run in 2012, Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Senator Rob Portman (R-OH), and General (ret.) Stanley McChrystal, former head of ISAF.
Throughout the rest of April, as the establishment of the party tried in a desperate nature to draft one of the three candidates, media speculation had intensified over other possible candidates who would run in the Republican primary. Rick Santorum (former Senator of Pennsylvania), Gary Johnson (former Governor of New Mexico), and Mike Huckabee (former Governor of Arkansas) would all announce their intents to form exploratory committees, joining Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, and Tim Pawlenty in the formation of exploratory committees. The speculation had however focused around real estate mogul Donald Trump, who had been making rampant speculation since the start of 2011 for a possible presidential run for the Republicans. Donald Trump had latched onto the 'birthers movement' as a basis of his support, and would rise significantly in the polls as a result of it. Despite the release of Obama's 'long-form' birth certificate, Donald Trump would maintain himself as a possible contender to run for the President with an announcement stating that he would make an announcement for a date to either announce he was running or not on the end of Celebrity Apprentice on May 22nd. Ahead of Trump's announcement would come news that Jon Huntsman Jr. had formed a political action committee on the 3rd, and the first Republican debate would occur between Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Gary Johnson, Newt Gingrich, and Tim Pawlenty on May 5th.
On May 6th, would come the announcement of another formation of a presidential exploratory committee, but this time by the figure that the establishment had managed to convince to run. General McChrystal had made himself clear that he had no wish of seeking the nomination for President at this time, and so it had come down to between Senator Graham and Senator Portman. Senator Portman had brought out the sharp concerns over losing the Senate seat if he had won (with a Democratic governor in charge of Ohio) and most importantly had no desire to run for the President. Eventually, it had come down to Graham who had accepted for a run in the primaries with negotiations among many in the background. And so on May 6th, Lindsey Graham would announce his formation of an exploratory committee, with many commentators expecting his announcement to run by the end of May or early June. Representative Ron Paul would announce on May 13th he would not be seeking the Republican nomination for President.
For Donald Trump, he would announce the announcement for whether he would enter or not on June 2nd, as Republicans began to officially enter the race in seeking the Presidency. Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Herman Cain, Gary Johnson, and Tim Pawlenty would all announce their intents to be officially seeking the Republican nomination for President throughout May. Donald Trump on June 2nd would announce his intent to seek the Republican nomination for President, bringing another major figure into the race, with Rick Santorum announcing on June 6th and Lindsey Graham on June 9th. The first 'major' Republican debate was scheduled for June 13th in New Hampshire by CNN, involving Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty, Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump, Lindsey Graham, and Michelle Bachmann (both Mike Huckabee and Gary Johnson had polled too low, and Jon Huntsman did not plan to partake in the debate). The June 13th debate would be the first of many for the Republican Party, and Donald Trump who had moved on an angle against the DREAM Act would attack Senator Lindsey Graham for his support and vote for it. He would simply respond, "I voted for the DREAM Act because the men and women who love this country enough that they would die for it have earned their citizenship."
The response by Lindsey Graham found itself spread across the media the next day alongside the announcement that Michelle Bachmann would formally launch a Presidential bid shortly. The debate had already begun to set the stage for the issues ahead of the primaries, which included the rapidly heating up North African War...
The announcement that Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) would not be running in the 2012 Republican Primary sent shock waves throughout the establishment of the party, who had long been expecting him to run following his failed campaign in 2008, which saw Senator John McCain win. It had been something of a shock, yet for many among the Republican establishment, they had no wish for running and this would rapidly present itself as concerning to many. Three figures who had been discussed as possible challengers to Mitt Romney, Governors Mitch Daniels (of Indiana) and Chris Christie (of New Jersey) along with Representative Mike Pence (of Indiana) had started leaning heavily against running. For many in the 'establishment' of the party, it was of something of a panic as they rapidly sought to desire someone who could both work for national security credentials and as someone who could likely 'stand' against the more... extreme candidates in the primary. Both Ambassador Huntsman Jr. and Former Governor Tim Pawlenty were figures who had significant flaws, and for many brought worries over the loss they would face against the Democrats. Immediately, three choices would be determined for whom the Republicans could try to convince to run in 2012, Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Senator Rob Portman (R-OH), and General (ret.) Stanley McChrystal, former head of ISAF.
Throughout the rest of April, as the establishment of the party tried in a desperate nature to draft one of the three candidates, media speculation had intensified over other possible candidates who would run in the Republican primary. Rick Santorum (former Senator of Pennsylvania), Gary Johnson (former Governor of New Mexico), and Mike Huckabee (former Governor of Arkansas) would all announce their intents to form exploratory committees, joining Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, and Tim Pawlenty in the formation of exploratory committees. The speculation had however focused around real estate mogul Donald Trump, who had been making rampant speculation since the start of 2011 for a possible presidential run for the Republicans. Donald Trump had latched onto the 'birthers movement' as a basis of his support, and would rise significantly in the polls as a result of it. Despite the release of Obama's 'long-form' birth certificate, Donald Trump would maintain himself as a possible contender to run for the President with an announcement stating that he would make an announcement for a date to either announce he was running or not on the end of Celebrity Apprentice on May 22nd. Ahead of Trump's announcement would come news that Jon Huntsman Jr. had formed a political action committee on the 3rd, and the first Republican debate would occur between Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Gary Johnson, Newt Gingrich, and Tim Pawlenty on May 5th.
On May 6th, would come the announcement of another formation of a presidential exploratory committee, but this time by the figure that the establishment had managed to convince to run. General McChrystal had made himself clear that he had no wish of seeking the nomination for President at this time, and so it had come down to between Senator Graham and Senator Portman. Senator Portman had brought out the sharp concerns over losing the Senate seat if he had won (with a Democratic governor in charge of Ohio) and most importantly had no desire to run for the President. Eventually, it had come down to Graham who had accepted for a run in the primaries with negotiations among many in the background. And so on May 6th, Lindsey Graham would announce his formation of an exploratory committee, with many commentators expecting his announcement to run by the end of May or early June. Representative Ron Paul would announce on May 13th he would not be seeking the Republican nomination for President.
For Donald Trump, he would announce the announcement for whether he would enter or not on June 2nd, as Republicans began to officially enter the race in seeking the Presidency. Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Herman Cain, Gary Johnson, and Tim Pawlenty would all announce their intents to be officially seeking the Republican nomination for President throughout May. Donald Trump on June 2nd would announce his intent to seek the Republican nomination for President, bringing another major figure into the race, with Rick Santorum announcing on June 6th and Lindsey Graham on June 9th. The first 'major' Republican debate was scheduled for June 13th in New Hampshire by CNN, involving Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty, Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump, Lindsey Graham, and Michelle Bachmann (both Mike Huckabee and Gary Johnson had polled too low, and Jon Huntsman did not plan to partake in the debate). The June 13th debate would be the first of many for the Republican Party, and Donald Trump who had moved on an angle against the DREAM Act would attack Senator Lindsey Graham for his support and vote for it. He would simply respond, "I voted for the DREAM Act because the men and women who love this country enough that they would die for it have earned their citizenship."
The response by Lindsey Graham found itself spread across the media the next day alongside the announcement that Michelle Bachmann would formally launch a Presidential bid shortly. The debate had already begun to set the stage for the issues ahead of the primaries, which included the rapidly heating up North African War...
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Zachanassian
Gone Fishin'
I would've paid anything to see a three-way primary race between Trump, Gary Johnson, and Herman Cain.
*bangs head against wall* ONE UNIVERSE?! IS THAT TOO MUCH TO ASK?! ONE UNIVERSE WHERE THE BLONDE OOMPA LOOMPA KEEP HIS UGLY HEAD AWAY FROM POLITICS?!
In 2012, it seemed like he was very apparent on entering the race, and only in mid-May announced he wasn't intending to run. Whether that was truly intentional or not is of question. However with the lack of Romney in the race, it throws the GOP into disarray since he was the established frontrunner in many of the polls at this time and Trump could likely think to capitalize on that by actually running.
To expand a little on this, without Romney running, it throws a lot of things into play that you likely didn't see. I felt that Trump running would likely be one of the immediate effects of an announcement of Romney not seeking the nomination, along with the possibility of a drafted Republican by the establishment (in this case, Senator Lindsey Graham).
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