Beyond Vinland

[Oth Thakom]

Beyond Vinland is an Alternate History Project created on the Whatifalthist discord server where the focus is on the butterfly effect from Iceland's independence after a lightning strikes and burns down a Church in the year 1000, influencing Thorgeir Ljosvetningagodi's decision regarding the fate of Iceland.

With Iceland remaining pagan due to an act-of-Thor, the Island starts the new millennium isolated and forced to invest in the colony of Vinland and surrounding lands. However the focus if this alternate history is the long-term effects beyond Vinland, hence the title. With Iceland eventually becoming a trade power and developing a reputation as "The Ottomans of the West" due to being an economically influential heathen nation at the edge of Europe, in the opposite corner from where the Ottomans are.

This is a timeline where Europe knows that there's something out west but it's still until around the 14th century where Portugal is butterflied to sail west instead of around Africa because it's a path of least resistance.

Back in the New World, the first trade good to bring Iceland back into relevancy is Tobacco followed by Chili a century later. And perhaps other NW goods but those two are the primary goods. This of course resulting in a wave of civilization destroying plague that forces the New World to restart and rebuild in a way completely different from what happened OTL. Especially when regarding Icelandic livestock being introduced from the north-east rather then Iberian livestock from Central America-outwards.

Fist of all, outside of all native groups, the eastern inuit are likely best off. Presumably due to thin populations and getting most of their food from literal sea monsters in contrast to norse farmer-pastoralists who occasionally fish. Potentially resulting in Greenlandic and East-Mainland inuit adopting pastoralism and migrating backwards and even southwards as a prominent minority in Norse colonies who may leave a legacy of religious syncretism and dudes with with black beards, not to mention the whaling industry getting a head-start from both groups working together.

The plague however would leave devastating effects for everyone else while also allowing Norse mainland colonies to expand and immediately slow down due to a small population restricting their core population to the temperate northeast. With expansion slowing to a crawl while neighboring native groups eventually adopt pastoralism as they fall under a Norse sphere of influence which focuses on Rivers and Coastlines, especially the East Coast which grows richer as trade expands.

Speaking of Rivers, due to Icelandic horse being unsuited for the comparably hot south, the Mississippian civilizations rebuild but are unrecognizable, because even though horses do not thrive and allow for a regression into Hunter-Gatherers-with-horse, they instead create an aristocratic society ruled by the descendants of those displaced by the domino effect of Norse expansion. Or by the 1200s imagine the Mississippians being ruled by horse-riding mound-kings leading armies of infantry and the occasional group of Norse mercenaries. Mostly due to Icelandic livestock being more expensive to maintain down south until generations of natural and selective breeding allows them to survive better and decrease the value of meat for the average peasant.

Then there's the Caribbean, with Cuba being named Sumarland and the sea Sumarsi. Because Sumar is summer in Icelandic and the place is a land of eternal summer to them.
This is the setting that I want to create a series of island management sims with the focus being the development of island colonies and their relationships with the natives and each-other. With the general vibe being that the norse would rather colonize tropical islands then the mainland. With most of the southern norse looking like Frank Frazetta's interpretation of Conan the Barbarian at that point. Which in turn enforces the vibe of high-adventure and opportunity in an ever changing world of reborn civilizations.

West of Sumarland is of course Central and Mesoamerica, where formerly plague ridden cities are reclaiming ruins from the wild and a bunch of marginally paler and hairy men just showed up to trade and work as mercenaries in exchange for chili and other luxuries. All of this happening between 1200 and late 1300s as a trade network is established and Panama is named Bridgeland as the only Central American mainland colony while still being part of the greater Sumarnorse culture. It's also absurdly rich from it's strategic location as they can trade with Andean civilization and thus expand the distribution of the divine Potato centuries earlier.

Then the aforementioned Portuguese show up and a new age of high adventure and naval warfare begins.

I wish I had up-to-date maps as the ones I currently have need updating

Other Things:
Puebloan civilization is the only one that rebuilds unchanged because the entire environment is anti-antithetical to Icelandic livestock. Although things may change with the White City still being built.
Central and Mesoamerican Language create a norse influenced linear B script similar to how Greece forgot Linear A and created a Phoenician influenced linear B.

Stuff that's purely the author's creation:
A wolf cult that grows increasingly esoteric the further south one gets. Originally starting as a frontier war-band which believes they live in an "age of wolves" with Sköll and Hati becoming what they ate(the new Sun and Moon) to justify raiding and enslaving skraelings until the northern half mellowed out and became a professional frontier subculture. The southern cult meanwhile got into esoteric ramblings about the Primordial Serpent and Hound brothers of life and death based on the fact both Norse and Mesoamerican religion have a snake and hound who are brothers.
Valkyrs are a subculture of freewomen who can be traced back to Freydís Eiríksdóttir. Think violent/darwinistic amazons who brutally sacrifice slaves and hunt prostitutes for sport. Although like the wolf cult they have less violent subcultures that focus on household management.

Butterfly Effects I need to work on:
British and Scandinavian politics and how they're effected from being the first Old World regions to buy and distribute New World goods to the rest of the continent. Especially regarding Ireland and Scotland.

 

[Arkenfolm]

The core problem with this scenario is that Iceland doesn't have a reason to remain pagan when their trading partners are all Christians--increasingly so--and the Church makes it easier to facilitate relations with people on the continent. And that includes rival chiefs who go off to Norway and serve the King and then ask the King goes and helps them drive out rivals. Northern Europe also had quite a crusading spirit, hence the conquest and forced conversion of the Baltic--given how frequently violent threats were used against pagan Norse holdouts, it's likely Iceland would become the target of a crusade should for whatever reason they remain pagan, and that goes all the more so if they're getting rich off New World trade.

Speaking of Rivers, due to Icelandic horse being unsuited for the comparably hot south, the Mississippian civilizations rebuild but are unrecognizable, because even though horses do not thrive and allow for a regression into Hunter-Gatherers-with-horse, they instead create an aristocratic society ruled by the descendants of those displaced by the domino effect of Norse expansion. Or by the 1200s imagine the Mississippians being ruled by horse-riding mound-kings leading armies of infantry and the occasional group of Norse mercenaries. Mostly due to Icelandic livestock being more expensive to maintain down south until generations of natural and selective breeding allows them to survive better and decrease the value of meat for the average peasant.

It's plenty suitable for Icelandic horses, but since those were rare and limited to Norse chiefs, they'd probably just be used as animals to sacrifice for ceremonies (much as deer were OTL) by native chiefs so you get the same effect. Other Norse livestock would probably survive just fine provided they weren't being used for labour.

Puebloan civilization is the only one that rebuilds unchanged because the entire environment is anti-antithetical to Icelandic livestock. Although things may change with the White City still being built.

Nothing antithetical about it, Norse livestock such as cattle, goats, and sheep are frequently raised in the Southwest, and the only reason the latter isn't a bigger thing in modern times was because of historic lobbies of cattlemen which conspired against sheep farmers. The heat and dry climate in the Southwest isn't really a problem given decades/centuries of selective breeding which would be necessary if they are to spread to the South, the Plains, or Mesoamerica. In fact, I'd expect Puebloan civilisation to be conquered by migrants from the east who do have livestock in the same way Indo-Europeans conquered so many groups, the only difference is they might not end up speaking some new language because they already have a sizable agricultural base.

 

[Hearkener]

Mostly due to Icelandic livestock being more expensive to maintain down south until generations of natural and selective breeding allows them to survive better and decrease the value of meat for the average peasant.

Goats and pigs were OTL incredibly succesful from day one. The main problem I see here is that these two species are so competitive that they are going to create a huge ecological crisis like they did OTL. They are also pests for agriculturalists, might I add, so they will cause havoc among maize-farmers in the Mississippi basin. So I think the precise opposite is more likely: incredibly cheap animal protein becomes widely available in a very short timespan.

 

[Kerney]

The core problem with this scenario is that Iceland doesn't have a reason to remain pagan when their trading partners are all Christians--increasingly so--and the Church makes it easier to facilitate relations with people on the continent. And that includes rival chiefs who go off to Norway and serve the King and then ask the King goes and helps them drive out rivals. Northern Europe also had quite a crusading spirit, hence the conquest and forced conversion of the Baltic--given how frequently violent threats were used against pagan Norse holdouts, it's likely Iceland would become the target of a crusade should for whatever reason they remain pagan, and that goes all the more so if they're getting rich off New World trade.

It could be easily delayed 50-100 years without Olaf Trygvasson followed by a slower, violent conversion of Norway-Sweden which in turn creates a motivated refugee population which bolstered Iceland-Greenland-and especially Vinland (though it would probably be called something else).

In that 100 years Iceland would no longer be dependent on Europe for essential materials, getting timber from Vinland, wealth to tempt merchants who aren't too pious and just possibility being less convenient for Germanic Crusaders. Why go to Iceland when we can crusade (and loot) Baltic tribes closer to home?

Meanwhile a new world empire accumulates and becomes formidable.

 

[Oth Thakom]

Caribbean and Central/Mesoamerica

Given that the main focus of my future game is in the Caribbean(renamed Sumarsi), I've focused a lot of what I guess can best be called Worldbuilding at this point in that region.

But before that, we focus on the East Coast where southwards migration is done via coastal Island Hopping. Which is to be expected for a traditionally maritime people(s) as they conquer and colonize islands followed by another wave towards the mainland and a noticeable increase in brunets, especially in natural harbors destined to profit off a linear intercontinental trade line. Although with a sever drop in mainland colonization due to what's been called the "Air Conditioner needed" line in the southeast. Hence why the southern Mississippian civilization is able to rebuild itself and be one of the first non-Northern native civilizations to enter the Iron Age thanks to being too hot, too populated and too distant but also a really convenient trade partner down the many rivers.

Eventually, comes the lands of eternal summer. Where the pattern of conquest, colonization and influence over mainland native powers is scaled up.

For the islands themselves, it starts slow but escalates with larger islands having a complex game of politicking between different settlements on the same island and even different islands nearby. By this time the wave of plague may have passed but considering IRL history the population would still be recovering through the 1200s-1300s. Which isn't enough time when the norse show up with iron, bigger ships and friends.

A theory I've had is that islands closest to the mainland and busy trade lines may end up with a migration of Mainland Natives outnumbering the Island native population, similar to what happened in Hawaii but for multiple Caribbean islands, an example being Cuba with a Mayan majority western quarter, heavily influenced by norse culture but still retaining their own. Meanwhile the Taíno (possibly violently)vanish in the western half of the Caribbean and by the time Portugal arrive, are a minority in the east.

Mesoamerica as mentioned in my last post recovers with the norse showing up in greater numbers later. Given the time and demand for Chili, the coastal city-states would already have a history dealing with Norse traders and could use them in influencing the mainland. Although a major change is that the first to benefit are the coastal Mayan city-states.
Long-term ramifications is that when people think of Mesoamerica, they think Maya instead of Nahuatl.
The coastal Nahuatl city-states benefit as well and given that all of this is happening by the 1300s, the Aztecs are butterflied away. Although it could be interesting seeing the conflicts between Iron Age Nahuatl and what could have been the Mexica. The imbalance created by Norse traders and even mercenaries putting an end to the historical north-south migration pattern. Or at least slowing it down greatly. The cool and mountainous climate of the Sierra Madre enabling a greater number of Icelandic-descending livestock to thrive and enable cavalry that would otherwise be useless in the steaming coastline.

I honestly don't know much of northern South America. I've heard there's theories that there where large-scale agricultural civilizations but they where killed off by the plague and before they could even rebuild, the Spanish where so brutal they may have been indirectly responsible for the feralization of formerly domesticated crops. But I do know the Caribs have yet to migrate into the Lesser Antilles, and likely never due to plague. Although I do have an idea of said Caribs becoming a local mainland power instead. But that's more on the worldbuilding end.

A tangent:
I've always wondered if the war and brutality of central America can be attributed to being a migrational funnel. Kind of like the opposite of the Eurasian grass triangle where instead of moving westwards to where there's a greater amount of relatively temperate grassland, everyone's moving south where there's less land and thus more conflict. Although with the population density thinning past the Valley of Mexico it may explain why Panama is so chill in comparison because so far as everyone up north is concerned, it's just going to get hotter even for them.

Goats and pigs were OTL incredibly succesful from day one. The main problem I see here is that these two species are so competitive that they are going to create a huge ecological crisis like they did OTL. They are also pests for agriculturalists, might I add, so they will cause havoc among maize-farmers in the Mississippi basin. So I think the precise opposite is more likely: incredibly cheap animal protein becomes widely available in a very short timespan.

So the Mississippians have better infantry who aren't malnourished.

The core problem with this scenario is that Iceland doesn't have a reason to remain pagan when their trading partners are all Christians--increasingly so--and the Church makes it easier to facilitate relations with people on the continent. And that includes rival chiefs who go off to Norway and serve the King and then ask the King goes and helps them drive out rivals. Northern Europe also had quite a crusading spirit, hence the conquest and forced conversion of the Baltic--given how frequently violent threats were used against pagan Norse holdouts, it's likely Iceland would become the target of a crusade should for whatever reason they remain pagan, and that goes all the more so if they're getting rich off New World trade.

I bet against crusading by virtue of distance. Not to mention most historical crusades almost always being land wars and never something comparable to a cold island at the edge of the known world. And by the time Iceland does make a profit, there's more reasons to why they're called the Ottomans of the West then just a heathen nation at the opposite corner of Europe. But again I need to know more about how Iceland's trade effects British politics especially regarding Ireland and Scotland. It's all about the incentives in the end. Although I still bet on Iceland being a naval power in some form.

 

[CHKeeley]

I think it’s an interesting scenario, but my main problem is trying to envision how an isolated Iceland that’s cut off from European trade links manages to properly develop and exploit the New World to the point where it’s being called “the Ottomans of the West”. Iceland around 1000AD was far from overpopulated, and severing its trade links will only exacerbate the problem. Greenland itself suffered from an acute lack of settlements and development, and historically the expeditions to Vinland that we have evidence for were mostly small troops of Greenlanders exploring the coasts rather than full agricultural settlements. A very small base of available settlers on the long end of a North Atlantic rope supplying critical resources like lumber not just for Greenland but also a resource starved Iceland while also having a very small market for the prestige goods like walrus tusks that drove the Greenlander economy in the first place doesn’t seem like a good setup for this Norse colonial empire that Iceland is envisioned as being in this scenario.

 

[Oth Thakom]

I think it’s an interesting scenario, but my main problem is trying to envision how an isolated Iceland that’s cut off from European trade links manages to properly develop and exploit the New World to the point where it’s being called “the Ottomans of the West”. Iceland around 1000AD was far from overpopulated, and severing its trade links will only exacerbate the problem. Greenland itself suffered from an acute lack of settlements and development, and historically the expeditions to Vinland that we have evidence for were mostly small troops of Greenlanders exploring the coasts rather than full agricultural settlements. A very small base of available settlers on the long end of a North Atlantic rope supplying critical resources like lumber not just for Greenland but also a resource starved Iceland while also having a very small market for the prestige goods like walrus tusks that drove the Greenlander economy in the first place doesn’t seem like a good setup for this Norse colonial empire that Iceland is envisioned as being in this scenario.

My idea is a period of temporary isolation, then formal reconnection around1100-1200AD. Perhaps with individual instances of trade until tobacco is sold followed by chili decades later which causes an economic boom in the North Atlantic for everyone involved. Depending on how good Tobacco is as a sale and what the Northern British isles can give in return.

 

[Arkenfolm]

I honestly don't know much of northern South America. I've heard there's theories that there where large-scale agricultural civilizations but they where killed off by the plague and before they could even rebuild, the Spanish where so brutal they may have been indirectly responsible for the feralization of formerly domesticated crops. But I do know the Caribs have yet to migrate into the Lesser Antilles, and likely never due to plague. Although I do have an idea of said Caribs becoming a local mainland power instead. But that's more on the worldbuilding end.

IIRC the coastal areas of northern South America were similar to Central America in terms of economy and culture (in archaeology it's called "Isthmo-American" or in older sources "Intermediate Area"). They were a mosaic of chiefdoms and city-states that extensively used gold in their arts. The most famous are probably the Mantenos in Ecuador who were a league of city-states and traded as far away as modern Jalisco in western Mexico. It seems this area wasn't so much destroyed by the Spanish since the survivors of the epidemics mostly retreated the mountains or deep jungle and joined their cultural kin there.

If the Atlantic is full of new and valuable goods, then yes, they'll obtain them from Central America and Mesoamerica via the trade networks that crossed between the oceans. I'd almost expect parts of the area, especially the Pacific side, to become a backwater of sorts because they'd be poorer and their Atlantic neighbours would have better ship technology at an earlier date (sails and whatever version of Norse-influenced shipbuilding becomes common) plus more valuable goods.

BTW if you haven't read it, you might want to check the TL here Land of Sweetness which is all about strengthened trading networks in the Caribbean and Mesoamerica's impact on local civilisation. For a shameless plug, own TL A Horn of Bronze touches on this too in some of the later chapters, albeit the influence comes mostly from the Pacific side (with a tiny bit of Norse presence too).

A tangent:
I've always wondered if the war and brutality of central America can be attributed to being a migrational funnel. Kind of like the opposite of the Eurasian grass triangle where instead of moving westwards to where there's a greater amount of relatively temperate grassland, everyone's moving south where there's less land and thus more conflict. Although with the population density thinning past the Valley of Mexico it may explain why Panama is so chill in comparison because so far as everyone up north is concerned, it's just going to get hotter even for them.

It's not so much the migrations since the history of human sacrifice goes back to the early days of Monte Alban, and possibly as far back as the Olmecs. I'd say sacrificing war captives has a certain logic to it as a means of intimidating any survivors, which is always very nice when control over distant areas is difficult due to there being no livestock and few good interior waterways. And when it was instituted into religion, it was difficult to stamp out and adopted subsequently by every group.

The coastal Nahuatl city-states benefit as well and given that all of this is happening by the 1300s, the Aztecs are butterflied away. Although it could be interesting seeing the conflicts between Iron Age Nahuatl and what could have been the Mexica. The imbalance created by Norse traders and even mercenaries putting an end to the historical north-south migration pattern. Or at least slowing it down greatly. The cool and mountainous climate of the Sierra Madre enabling a greater number of Icelandic-descending livestock to thrive and enable cavalry that would otherwise be useless in the steaming coastline.

Not all were Nahuatl speakers, since the Huastecs were still regionally powerful and would be the first Mesoamerican civilisation one encounters if sailing along the Gulf Coast. In a few areas, the Nahuas were simply the overlords, like for instance the descendents of Olmec civilisation (Mixe-Zoque speakers) were ruled over by a Nahua people whom were known as the Olmecs (hence why we call the ancient culture in that region "Olmec").

I bet against crusading by virtue of distance. Not to mention most historical crusades almost always being land wars and never something comparable to a cold island at the edge of the known world. And by the time Iceland does make a profit, there's more reasons to why they're called the Ottomans of the West then just a heathen nation at the opposite corner of Europe. But again I need to know more about how Iceland's trade effects British politics especially regarding Ireland and Scotland. It's all about the incentives in the end. Although I still bet on Iceland being a naval power in some form.

I don't think distance is much of a factor. It's not TOO far from the British Isles or Norway, hence why the Scandinavians were able to exercise control over the island. And Northern European crusaders--including Norwegians--attacked the Holy Land, which is definitely a greater distance, even if they walked much of the distance.

I think it’s an interesting scenario, but my main problem is trying to envision how an isolated Iceland that’s cut off from European trade links manages to properly develop and exploit the New World to the point where it’s being called “the Ottomans of the West”. Iceland around 1000AD was far from overpopulated, and severing its trade links will only exacerbate the problem. Greenland itself suffered from an acute lack of settlements and development, and historically the expeditions to Vinland that we have evidence for were mostly small troops of Greenlanders exploring the coasts rather than full agricultural settlements. A very small base of available settlers on the long end of a North Atlantic rope supplying critical resources like lumber not just for Greenland but also a resource starved Iceland while also having a very small market for the prestige goods like walrus tusks that drove the Greenlander economy in the first place doesn’t seem like a good setup for this Norse colonial empire that Iceland is envisioned as being in this scenario.

Iceland filled up fairly quickly IIRC and maintained a static 30-50K people until the 19th century. Besides, Icelandic society was very prone to violent feuds and powerful chiefs would regularly declare their enemies outlaws. Greenland didn't have much of a problem finding settlers (although apparently a significant minority of early Greenlanders came directly from Norway).

 

[Thomas Jefferson]

I think it’s an interesting scenario, but my main problem is trying to envision how an isolated Iceland that’s cut off from European trade links manages to properly develop and exploit the New World to the point where it’s being called “the Ottomans of the West”. Iceland around 1000AD was far from overpopulated, and severing its trade links will only exacerbate the problem. Greenland itself suffered from an acute lack of settlements and development, and historically the expeditions to Vinland that we have evidence for were mostly small troops of Greenlanders exploring the coasts rather than full agricultural settlements. A very small base of available settlers on the long end of a North Atlantic rope supplying critical resources like lumber not just for Greenland but also a resource starved Iceland while also having a very small market for the prestige goods like walrus tusks that drove the Greenlander economy in the first place doesn’t seem like a good setup for this Norse colonial empire that Iceland is envisioned as being in this scenario.

A more disputed Christianization process in which pagan holdouts decided to sail West rather than submit could achieve the critical mass needed for a viable colony in Vinland. Once that population becomes self-sustaining, they could begin trading in luxury goods like furs, with Greenland and Iceland serving as way stations on the route to mainland Europe.

 

[Arkenfolm]

A more disputed Christianization process in which pagan holdouts decided to sail West rather than submit could achieve the critical mass needed for a viable colony in Vinland. Once that population becomes self-sustaining, they could begin trading in luxury goods like furs, with Greenland and Iceland serving as way stations on the route to mainland Europe.

Furs were not much of a luxury good in medieval Europe since Scandinavia and Eastern Europe were still full of fur-bearing animals.

I'm not even sure if Vinland really could have much trade much in its early days, outside of supplying timber and iron to Greenland and Iceland and perhaps grain to Greenland (although like Iceland), and it should be noted that all but the latter are also found in Markland which is closer to the Greenlandic settlements hence why I would say Vinland is very overrated. After Vinland reaches a critical mass of Norse settlers, it has no real enemies since unlike Iceland or especially Greenland, pagan Vinland wouldn't be dependent on Europe for much of anything. If Vinland needs a major trade good, then it would be one which is very far away like OP is suggesting.