best way for Iran to be better-off country not lead by Islamists

[dovibear]

These days, most probably, Iran would be at the very least more secularized, more democratic, more respectful of religious minorities, and economically better off, if the Islamic clerics weren't in charge. At least on the level of Turkey (notwithstanding the present-day increased Islamization under Erdogan), Chile/Argentina/Uruguay, Eastern Europe, etc. in recent decades, perhaps on the level of Western Europe, North America, Japan and the Asian Tigers, etc. I'm wondering if a better POD would be if the CIA had not overthrown the democratically elected Mohammad Mossadegh in 1953, or if the Shah had not been overthrown by Ayatollah Khomeini and his followers in the 1979 revolution, or some POD from earlier (say, at the time of the Safavids or of the Muslim conquest)?

 

[Lalli]

Not overthrown of Mossadegh would work better. POD of 1979 is too late. Even if Americans and Brits are somehow save shah's power on 1979 it probably would happen later and might be that on latter case there would be civil war.

 

[dovibear]

From what I've recently read, by 1953, Mossadegh was starting to develop dictatorial tendencies himself.

 

[dovibear]

Not overthrown of Mossadegh would work better. POD of 1979 is too late. Even if Americans and Brits are somehow save shah's power on 1979 it probably would happen later and might be that on latter case there would be civil war.

I forgot to ask, as well: Would a more successful White Revolution by the Shah in the 1960s and early 1970s have been just as effective? If so, how would it have compared to a different outcome of the events of 1953 or of 1979?

 

[Shinsu]

Would a more successful White Revolution by the Shah in the 1960s and early 1970s have been just as effective? If so, how would it have compared to a different outcome of the events of 1953 or of 1979?

It would have required measures to make the new landless labors and new farmers still stay on his side and not be at each other's throats. The Shah's reforms more than quadrupled the combined size of the two classes that had posed the most challenges to his monarchy in the past the clergy and the urban working class. Their resentment towards the Shah also grew since they were now stripped of organizations that had represented them in the past, such as political parties, professional associations, trade unions, and independent newspapers. Had the Shah managed to remove a large deal of power from the clergy then it is possible to (with time) win loyalty over, but it is very difficult to remove power from one organization without its supporters rallying behind them. If Khomeini had "an early natural death" then that would also be a major help, but again, it is unlikely that the Shah could order such a thing without the masses rioting.

 

[dovibear]

It would have required measures to make the new landless labors and new farmers still stay on his side and not be at each other's throats. The Shah's reforms more than quadrupled the combined size of the two classes that had posed the most challenges to his monarchy in the past the clergy and the urban working class. Their resentment towards the Shah also grew since they were now stripped of organizations that had represented them in the past, such as political parties, professional associations, trade unions, and independent newspapers. Had the Shah managed to remove a large deal of power from the clergy then it is possible to (with time) win loyalty over, but it is very difficult to remove power from one organization without its supporters rallying behind them. If Khomeini had "an early natural death" then that would also be a major help, but again, it is unlikely that the Shah could order such a thing without the masses rioting.

I know this is way before 1900, but maybe a POD stretching back to the beginning of the Safavid regime at the turn of the 16th century could help, in the sense that the Safavids don't have to bring over the Ulema, the intellectual ancestors of today's Iranian mullahs, from Lebanon. But then again, I think that they recruited these Ulema from Lebanon because they wanted to bolster the new Shia presence in Iran (this at a time when Ismail I forcibly converted Iran from Sunni to Shia Islam).

 

[The Byronic Hero]

The Constitutional Revolution succeeds due to Mozaffar ad-Din not dying shortly after granting concessions. His death led to his son abolishing all reforms leading to domestic instability. Russia used the pretense of bringing order back by occupying the north in 1911.

With a stable government, William Knox D'Arcy may not get the sweet deal he did regarding Kuzestan's oil with more of that income flowing into a democratic Iran's coffers leading to economic growth that would solidify the regime.

 

[BigBlueBox]

From what I've recently read, by 1953, Mossadegh was starting to develop dictatorial tendencies himself.

He was no angel, but the 1953 coup against him was still a mistake.