Best possible outcome for Tecumseh's Confederacy?

[Changundramon]

The Youtube channel Kings and Generals is doing a fascinating series on this Native leader, who has managed to unite many tribes into a traditionalist alliance. Are there any clear PoD's that allow for this to ultimately result in Native independence, or at least a Native state within USA?

 

[JSchafer]

No, the population is too low. Even if they succeed in defeating their enemies and establishing their own state with immigration being what it is the population difference will only grow into hopelessness. Unless they open up their border to European immigration in which case what was the point?

 

[The Tai-Pan]

It is tough because, if you notice, there is not a single example of an independent native state in the Americas. No one of the hundreds (thousands?) of potential polities, through military victory, political acumen or luck managed to walk that path, which makes me think it was impossible. There are degrees of defeat and victory but outright independence is probably impossible, the odds are too heavily stacked against them.

 

[JackLumber]

If they tie themselves at the hip to British north America, and then eventually join Canada they could potentially get away with special language rights and certain privileges.

 

[The Gunslinger]

The absolute best case scenario is another fifteen years of semi-autonomy before being rolled into Canada. Maybe they can secure more land rights or voting status in the area.

 

[unprincipled peter]

It is tough because, if you notice, there is not a single example of an independent native state in the Americas. No one of the hundreds (thousands?) of potential polities, through military victory, political acumen or luck managed to walk that path, which makes me think it was impossible. There are degrees of defeat and victory but outright independence is probably impossible, the odds are too heavily stacked against them.

aren't the various 'reservations' considered autonomous sovereign regions within the US? Before the forced reservations, native lands were considered ruled and owned by natives.

The US has treated native lands as possessions of the natives and acquired said lands through treaty. Often times, these treaties came at the point of a gun, or through treachery, and that is the problem the natives would be facing here. Tecumseh, and whomever followed, would have to maintain a military presence strong enough to resist the inevitable push to dislodge them. For that they would need an ally of a non US country. Once France and Spain were dislodged by the British/US, the natives had no European powers to play off against one another.

In the best of circumstances, natives could choose (by force) a place to call home, but it's doubtful they could hold it for long.

But the US did, and still does, treat with natives as governmental polities.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

It is tough because, if you notice, there is not a single example of an independent native state in the Americas. ...

Closest I know of is the Navajo nation. My sister in law worked for several years as attorney for the Navajo government. She told me the treaty between the Navajo & the US made the Navajo not subject to the US Constitution. Precisely how that worked I did not dig into. However the details it made her professional life interesting. One of the complications was the non reservation lands the Navajo nation purchased and placed in the nations Trust were subject to the Constitution/Federal Law.

 

[PBJ]

The best-case scenario for Tecumseh's Confederacy is something similar to the princely states of India, in that the Native Americans will have no choice but to pledge allegiance to the British Empire and her future dominions, but will most likely be offered a degree of leniency in regards to internal affairs even with European settlement in the Great Lakes region. This would include Aboriginal nobility being made an important part of the regional bureaucracy in a similar manner to India in the early 20th century, with a similar degree of indirect rule.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

Best possible outcome?

After a swingeing defeat in the War of 1812, the US cedes the northern part of the Northwest Territory (Michigan and Wisconsin) to Britain, which declares the area a reserve for the Indians of the West. Tecumseh's people all retreat there over time, along with additional Indians from upstate NY, from IL, maybe even from the Old SW, also from Ontario.

The area had lots of French woodsmen, as shown by the many French toponyms (Fond du Lac, Detroit, Charlevoix, Sault Sainte Marie). Probably the area fills up with Métis settlers as well as Indians. The Métis would be the coherent population that occupies the territory and excludes Americans.