Best outcome for Poland after Fall of France?

What would be the best plausible outcome for Poland in WWII, with a PoD after the Fall of France? How can they both not get all-but-annihilated by the Nazis, and not turn into a Soviet satellite?

Unless the Soviet Union dramatically changes, it seems the only three ways to keep Poland from being a Soviet satellite are to keep it a Nazi ally, exhaust it so it can't overrun Poland in the first place, or let the Polish Home Army liberate Poland on its own. The first option seems very unlikely, given Hitler's longstanding plans Lebensraum in the east. The second option might work, except that it'd necessarily mean longer war which correspondingly fewer Poles would survive (e.g. Anglo-American / Nazi War). The third... would be great, except I don't see how it would be possible.

Ideas?
 
Hmmmm, Hitler has an *accident* after Pearl Harbor

New German Government surrenders and returns control of Poland to the Polish as part of the peace deal

Allied troops land in Poland

German troops still in Russia retreat into Poland and surrender to Western Allies

Germany pays huge idemnities to Poland and Russia and other allies over the following decades to keep everyone happy

While some Polish troops take part in Operation:Olympic most stay in country building up their defenses and keeping a watchful eye on their neighbors
 
Hmmmm, Hitler has an *accident* after Pearl Harbor

New German Government surrenders and returns control of Poland to the Polish as part of the peace deal

Allied troops land in Poland

German troops still in Russia retreat into Poland and surrender to Western Allies

Germany pays huge idemnities to Poland and Russia and other allies over the following decades to keep everyone happy

While some Polish troops take part in Operation:Olympic most stay in country building up their defenses and keeping a watchful eye on their neighbors

Why would the new government surrender after defeating Poland and France? They think that they're winning.
 
The Western Allies manage to find a way to supply the Home Army before the Warsaw Uprising. The Home Army liberates Poland on its own, and there's little the Soviets can do about it, beyond trying to bring Poland into their sphere of influence.
 
This is not June 1940 I am talking about, more like January 1942(still after Fall of France). Anti-Hitler forces see the writing on the wall. Its Before unconditional surrender is agreed upon by the allies and the German Resistance is more successful.
 
The Western Allies manage to find a way to supply the Home Army before the Warsaw Uprising. The Home Army liberates Poland on its own, and there's little the Soviets can do about it, beyond trying to bring Poland into their sphere of influence.
That might be the most plausible thing. The Home Army could liberate Warsaw on its own, even if not the entire country. And the Polish Government-In-Exile dearly wanted to help the Home Army during the uprising, but their planes didn't have the range to do that without landing in Russian lines for refueling... which Stalin refused to permit.

How could the Home Army be resupplied?
 
Poland improves of OTL with any change that reduces its time under Nazi occupation. It's too late to stop many heinous atrocities and satellitization is pretty much overdetermined.

So, PODs leading to shortened occupation include-

a) Soviet preventive strike against Germans, 1940

b) Soviet preventive strike in 1941

a) and b) have the benefit of providing a short term opportunity for some Polish civilians, especially ghetto dwellers and camp inmates to escape and flee or for the young men to be conscripted into Soviet backed forces.

Many civilians will once again fall behind Nazi lines after the inevitable German counteroffensive, but more will either escape or get a chance to die fighting, the Nazis will be taking serious losses earlier, the Germans will capture fewer resources from the Soviets intact, and the Soviets will have a better territorial position for all later campaigns, shortening the lifespan of the war and the Nazi regime and the occupation of Poland. (Even with quite poor performance by the Red Army, followed by a strong Nazi counterattack, and Soviet retreat, the front-lines throughout ATL 1941, 1942 and 1943 will be west of OTL's 1941, 1942 and 1943, and the Soviets will probably be able to use more of their infrastructure in place rather than having to evacuate (especially in places like the Donbass).

Of the two, a 1940 preemption is probably better because the Germans are less strong in terms of alliances and military presence in the Balkans in comparison with 1941. This applies even USSR tactical performance is suckier in July-December 1940, than in Jan-May 1941.

OK, so this dials back the annihilation, but does satisfy the OPs condition of avoiding becoming a Soviet satellite.

PoDs to ensure against satellitization depend on the Soviets not reaching some or all of Polish territory. So, Nazi victory over the Soviets, collapse of the Soviet state and war effort, or other things that slow down Soviet counteroffensives like unabated command irrationality, no Lend-Lease or more flexible German defensive postures in the east, or a US-UK Japan first strategy and corresponding reduction in their actions to the south and west could possibly keep some or all of Poland under Nazi occupation until after the WAllies have atomic bombs raining down on Germany. An atomic bomb induced surrender could have the WAllies dictating the disposition of most German occupied territories. (As was the case, at least initially, with the Japanese surrender in Asia).

The problem with longer Nazi occupations of Poland is that it increases the time the Nazis are annihilating the Poles (of all religions) as you mention in the OP.

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To have the western powers get boots on the ground in Poland before the Soviets do, requires more exotic PoDs, like -

Germany forcing America into the war in 1940, failing to enlist Japan as an ally and still picking a fight with the USSR on schedule.

It's crazy but not as crazy as it might sound. With the Fall of France accomplished, (and small size of American air and ground forces), Hitler need not be concerned about the American army. He may entertain naval operational arguments that maximum scope for U-Boat operations against British lifelines is worth the cost even if the Americans enter the naval war as an immediate consequence.

Follow that up with an Arctic/North Sea strategy of initial ops against German occupied Norway instead of the Med, while building up for an earlier Overlord, and you get more of a shot of WAllies being the first in Poland.

Granted, when the Germans begin to lose in the western fronts they'll begin to trade space for time in the east. But the finish-line need not be exactly where it was in OTL 1945.

This is especially so if the Arctic-North Sea front starting with Norway draws Sweden into the war (involuntarily) and leads to an eventual Baltic campaign. After a year or so campaigning in Sweden the WAllies can reclaim it to the Baltic coast and present a threat to northern Germany, Denmark and Poland, and are at jumping off points to move into Poland and to support the Home Army.
 
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