Best Non-England Location for Industrialization?

[Band in China]

POD- say something simple, common, and vital like the English monarchy/aristocracy entrenching their authority and creating a political and economic climate unsuitable for industrialization occurs in England, where else has the potential for industrialization?

I'll be upfront, I'm not as well-versed on Early Modern Chinese nor Indian economics to do much more than broad strokes for them. If anyone more knowledgeable can opine then I thank them.

So I want to work from identifying geographical conditions ideal for industrialization to a POD that creates the political and economic environment for it. What do I mean by this?

1. Take for example Eastern Ukraine, prime agricultural land, decent river transport/power from the Don and Donets, easy access to the Mediterranean market via the Black Sea, lots of coal and iron deposits near rivers all ideal for industrialization.

But if we consider the politics of it then its the frontier lands and constantly fought over between Muslims, Christians, and nomads with plenty of destruction and chaos-which is rather boring as it knocks off entire regions and can be fixed with a POD 300 years earlier. Not to say that politics doesn't matter, just that it adds to the need for divergence.

PODs: Tokhtamysh doesn't feud with his ally Timur, the Golden Horde is not crushed by Timur, its settlements are not sacked and replaced with nomadic slave raiders, Golden Horde remains a relatively stable regional power over time, the Horde continues its slow and comfortable slide into a sedentary lifestyle. By 1700 the population had been booming for over two centuries on the fruits of the rich soils under the protection of the Khans, the empire has been expanding East into the poorly populated steppes and taiga with gunpowder and trade, the West is stable with a collection of divided Orthodox principalities, while fruitful exchanges continue with the Sultanate of "the city" in the South.


A simple rule of thumb would be the importance of coal and iron ore, iron for tools, coal for energy.

source: https://grandemotte.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/global-coal-fields.jpg?w=640

2. Balkans: Kosovo seems to the exception here, having ample supplies of coal, iron, and other metals right beside each other. The main issue is transport: the rivers in the region are tiny and rough, requiring a dramatic amount of work for any type of canal and it seems difficult to jump start any industrialization with handcarts or personal boats.

3. Lower-Countries: quite easy, good river and sea access, center of an economic region, local peat and coal, close access to iron ore, decent wind power.

4. Reserved for Germany

5. Reserved for Baltic Sea

6. Reserved for Eastern America

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Reserved for the Lower-Countries

Given Cockerill and Biolleys were both involved in "Belgium" and the adjacent Rhinelandindustrializing OTL. Ghent (I think Marx was the one who called it Belgium's Manchester) already having factories with prototypes of mechanized looms as early as shortly after the Peace of Utrecht. The prince bishopric of Liège had some form of light industrialization from the 1720s for mining as well.

 

[Pax_Nihil]

The Benelux and Ruhr, northern Italy, southern China, though the best is New England and the Rust Belt states in the United States.

 

[Fulano]

A France that somehow gets its "natural borders" earlier than OTL has very big chances of hitting the Industrialization "jackpot" before England.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

A France that somehow gets its "natural borders" earlier than OTL has very big chances of hitting the Industrialization "jackpot" before England.

again, from the aforementioned convo, just have the duc de Bourgogne (Louis XVI's brother) survive. The duc de Luynes had done a handshake deal with Mme de Pompadour that he would be appointed the boy's tutor/governor. Luynes was a majority shareholder in the Montréalais coal mines in the South of France, tried to promote a native French cotton weaving industry (as well as growing tea) on his lands in Brittany and was looking into "fire engines" (steam engines) to aid in both matters. No need for Bourgogne to be a nut for industrializing, but Luynes having the role of tutor would stave off the bankruptcy he experienced OTL (tutor to the heir got a nice salary, cushy living arrangements etc) that saw most of his ideas wither on the vine/mid-thought. And he could definitely leverage his connections to the heir/king of France to encourage industrialization elsewhere in France (he was looking into how to make the Dombes region more productive as well)

 

[Deus_Vult]

POD- say something simple, common, and vital like the English monarchy/aristocracy entrenching their authority and creating a political and economic climate unsuitable for industrialization occurs in England, where else has the potential for industrialization?

China. IIRC the Song Dynasty was on the verge of industrialization, before for reasons which AFAIK are still being debated that process stopped.

So you could have an industrial power centuries before Europe could even dream of reaching that level.

 

[Thoresby]

China. IIRC the Song Dynasty was on the verge of industrialization, before for reasons which AFAIK are still being debated that process stopped.

Song China was not on the verge of industrialisation any more than the Romans were, they met some of the prerequisites but labour was too cheap and demand too weak.

If not England somewhere in the Rhine watershed is most likely, the Belgian industrial revolution is a bit of a meme but for a reason.

 

[nickmn]

POD- say something simple, common, and vital like the English monarchy/aristocracy entrenching their authority and creating a political and economic climate unsuitable for industrialization occurs in England, where else has the potential for industrialization?

I'll be upfront, I'm not as well-versed on Early Modern Chinese nor Indian economics to do much more than broad strokes for them. If anyone more knowledgeable can opine then I thank them.

So I want to work from identifying geographical conditions ideal for industrialization to a POD that creates the political and economic environment for it. What do I mean by this?

1. Take for example Eastern Ukraine, prime agricultural land, decent river transport/power from the Don and Donets, easy access to the Mediterranean market via the Black Sea, lots of coal and iron deposits near rivers all ideal for industrialization.

But if we consider the politics of it then its the frontier lands and constantly fought over between Muslims, Christians, and nomads with plenty of destruction and chaos-which is rather boring as it knocks off entire regions and can be fixed with a POD 300 years earlier. Not to say that politics doesn't matter, just that it adds to the need for divergence.

PODs: Tokhtamysh doesn't feud with his ally Timur, the Golden Horde is not crushed by Timur, its settlements are not sacked and replaced with nomadic slave raiders, Golden Horde remains a relatively stable regional power over time, the Horde continues its slow and comfortable slide into a sedentary lifestyle. By 1700 the population had been booming for over two centuries on the fruits of the rich soils under the protection of the Khans, the empire has been expanding East into the poorly populated steppes and taiga with gunpowder and trade, the West is stable with a collection of divided Orthodox principalities, while fruitful exchanges continue with the Sultanate of "the city" in the South.


A simple rule of thumb would be the importance of coal and iron ore, iron for tools, coal for energy.

source: https://grandemotte.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/global-coal-fields.jpg?w=640

2. Reserved for the Balkans

3. Reserved for the Lower-Countries

4. Reserved for Germany

5. Reserved for Baltic Sea

6. Reserved for Eastern America

Ukraine is in a pretty bad spot when it comes to market access. Their sole access to the sea depends on the whims of whoever controls the Dardanelles. No matter how favorable the rest of the conditions are(which they aren't really , unless eastern Ukraine is part of a country that extends far from it to give it some defensiveness due to distance from the borders), having someone that can sever your connection to the wider markets whenever they please isn't a good situation to be in...

 

[Polish Eagle]

Bohemia, if not for being landlocked, seems like an excellent candidate, if it could avoid getting stomped on by the Germans. The Danube's close enough to be used for transport, if they can get lower Austria under their control.

 

[jacob ningen]

Song China was not on the verge of industrialisation any more than the Romans were, they met some of the prerequisites but labour was too cheap and demand too weak.

If not England somewhere in the Rhine watershed is most likely, the Belgian industrial revolution is a bit of a meme but for a reason.

Egypt under the Pashas is too late and has the same issues as Song IIRC.

 

[Thoresby]

Egypt under the Pashas is too late and has the same issues as Song IIRC.

It and the Song also have the problem of too strong a government that was too involved in the economy, the British state was unusually laissez faire which was a help when it came to doing something that no one thought was possible.

 

[jacob ningen]

It and the Song also have the problem of too strong a government that was too involved in the economy, the British state was unusually laissez faire which was a help when it came to doing something that no one thought was possible.

I think Nabulsi cotton tried it but was aborted by English and French competition.

 

[Hastings]

Belgium-Ruhr belt is good in a lot of ways and probably where it happens if just screwing England. Urals promising resource-wise, was major for Russia even in 1700s, but you need a POD way back for a viable starting place. China has coal all over the place. India is much more limited, western edges of Greater Bengal are best bet. Southeast Asia is a promising area, especially Burma, Vietnam, and Sumatra. Their smaller size and more limited populations combined with economic vitality of coastal SE Asia I think makes a deeply underrated area. Outside Iran, Middle East is pretty lacking in good-quality coal (and oil isn't substitute, much more demanding techwise than coal). Not too many other options in the old world belt that had any chance without a *very* old POD.

In terms of China, obvious POD is Warring States Era never ends. Reunification was far from guaranteed. Qin ended nearly a thousand years of decentralization, with the Zhou for much of their 'reign' making the Holy Roman Emperors look like absolute rulers. Qin unified China in much the same sense a better-run early modern France 'reunifying' Charlemagne's Empire . As I mentioned, China has a lot of coal, so lot of different geographical possibilities eventually to spark an industrial revolution.

 

[LordKalvan]

It and the Song also have the problem of too strong a government that was too involved in the economy, the British state was unusually laissez faire which was a help when it came to doing something that no one thought was possible.

Laissez-faire, rule-of-law and toleration of upward social mobility are the best pre-requisites for kickstarting an industrial revolution.

 

[Ambassador Huntsman]

Bengal was already undergoing heavy proto-industrialization and their deindustrialization by the EIC paved way for British industrialization so I would place a large bet on an independent Bengal state or something along those lines.

 

[mrmandias]

the low countries is by far the most likely location absent big PODs.

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

The Hanseatic League had the financial capital, the urban economy and work force, and access to foreign and domestic markets.

 

[Thoresby]

Bengal was already undergoing heavy proto-industrialization and their deindustrialization by the EIC paved way for British industrialization so I would place a large bet on an independent Bengal state or something along those lines.

That's not a widely held view among modern economic historians, yes Bengal was very exporting a lot and relatively rich but there doesn't seem to have been a productivity revolution, the textile and shipbuilding industries were extremely large, efficient and profitable but because labour was so cheap you weren't seeing the sort of mechanisation that European industries were undergoing.

As for the looting of Bengal paying for British industrialisation that is also not widely held, if anything looting Bengal probably slowed things down by reducing the persistent current account deficit that Britain (and Europe) had with Asia. That deficit and the continued outflow of precious metals east almost certainly was a key driving factor in OTL.

 

[tus3]

In terms of China, obvious POD is Warring States Era never ends.

What about avoiding the Mongol conquests? Whereafter China remains divided between the southern Song, Jin, and western Xia?

I had read the argument that such a China might have ended up as one of the early adopters of the Industrial Revolution like Germany or Japan.

However, I do not know enough about the place to judge whether it might have industrialized without an example.

 

[Fulano]

In terms of China, obvious POD is Warring States Era never ends.

Another POD, imho, is if another philosophy wins the ideological war at that time. For example, Mohism was radically different from Confucianism and Legalism and way more pragmatic and materialistic in comparison.