Best case scenario for Republican Brazil

Around a year ago, I made a thread asking for the best case scenario for Japan after WW2. Now, I want to ask a similar question, only this time on Brazil. More specifically, I want to ask for the best case scenario for Brazil after the deposition of the Empire in 1889, Since a lot of threads focused on a stronger Brazil usually involve the monarchy surviving and not much else. So, with a POD after 1889, how can Brazil's status be improved to the point where it could be considered a world power, or even a superpower? An earlier end to the Old Republic? An alternate Vargas presidency? No 1965 Coup?

Just for the record, my knowledge of Brazilian history is very limited, so apologies if I'm unable to make for much conversation.
 
Around a year ago, I made a thread asking for the best case scenario for Japan after WW2. Now, I want to ask a similar question, only this time on Brazil. More specifically, I want to ask for the best case scenario for Brazil after the deposition of the Empire in 1889, Since a lot of threads focused on a stronger Brazil usually involve the monarchy surviving and not much else. So, with a POD after 1889, how can Brazil's status be improved to the point where it could be considered a world power, or even a superpower? An earlier end to the Old Republic? An alternate Vargas presidency? No 1965 Coup?

Just for the record, my knowledge of Brazilian history is very limited, so apologies if I'm unable to make for much conversation.
The Monarchy was just much better than the Republic, the Republic is very unlikely to succeed as any leader that angers someone (for example trough a needed reform) he will be removed
 
Around a year ago, I made a thread asking for the best case scenario for Japan after WW2. Now, I want to ask a similar question, only this time on Brazil. More specifically, I want to ask for the best case scenario for Brazil after the deposition of the Empire in 1889, Since a lot of threads focused on a stronger Brazil usually involve the monarchy surviving and not much else. So, with a POD after 1889, how can Brazil's status be improved to the point where it could be considered a world power, or even a superpower? An earlier end to the Old Republic? An alternate Vargas presidency? No 1965 Coup?

Just for the record, my knowledge of Brazilian history is very limited, so apologies if I'm unable to make for much conversation.
No Ruy Barbosa as Economy Minister and avoid the Encilhamento crisis, which hurt Brazil a lot and basically destroyed the young Republic's financial system right when it started
 
Around a year ago, I made a thread asking for the best case scenario for Japan after WW2. Now, I want to ask a similar question, only this time on Brazil. More specifically, I want to ask for the best case scenario for Brazil after the deposition of the Empire in 1889, Since a lot of threads focused on a stronger Brazil usually involve the monarchy surviving and not much else. So, with a POD after 1889, how can Brazil's status be improved to the point where it could be considered a world power, or even a superpower? An earlier end to the Old Republic? An alternate Vargas presidency? No 1965 Coup?

Just for the record, my knowledge of Brazilian history is very limited, so apologies if I'm unable to make for much conversation.
Avoid the Encilhamento (ninja'd by @Taunay). The Old Republic's first minister of finance, Ruy Barbosa, sought to encourage industrialization, but he did it in the worst way possible. He gave virtually unlimited credit for everyone who supposedly wanted to build a factory, leading to a surge of speculation and an economic crisis that plagued Brazil for the last decade of the 19th century.

A better economy means things are more stable. Deodoro might not declare a state of siege, which prevents his downfall and the turbulent circunstances of Floriano Peixoto's accession.
 
The Monarchy was just much better than the Republic, the Republic is very unlikely to succeed as any leader that angers someone (for example trough a needed reform) he will be removed
Despite the fact that the republic has lasted far longer than the monarchy, therefore having multiple opportunities to change?
 
Despite the fact that the republic has lasted far longer than the monarchy, therefore having multiple opportunities to change?
That is debatable, Brazil did not have one Republic, it had several. Vargas' first Republic was a complete reaction of the first one, Vargas' Estado Novo was pretty much a reaction to his own Republic, the next was a Liberal reaction of the Estado Novo, in 1968 there was an "ammendment" which turned the Liberal Constitution into a Dictatorial one, finally there is the current Republic that has been going since 1988.

None of them lasted longer than the Empire.
 
That is debatable, Brazil did not have one Republic, it had several. Vargas' first Republic was a complete reaction of the first one, Vargas' Estado Novo was pretty much a reaction to his own Republic, the next was a Liberal reaction of the Estado Novo, in 1968 there was an "ammendment" which turned the Liberal Constitution into a Dictatorial one, finally there is the current Republic that has been going since 1988.

None of them lasted longer than the Empire.
Ok, but it doesn't change the fact that, in one way or another, Brazil has had a republican form of government since 1889, and this thread is meant to discuss ways to make Brazil more successful without keeping or restoring the monarchy, which many discussions about wanking Brazil seem to do.
 
Ok, but it doesn't change the fact that, in one way or another, Brazil has had a republican form of government since 1889, and this thread is meant to discuss ways to make Brazil more successful without keeping or restoring the monarchy, which many discussions about wanking Brazil seem to do.
Perhaps the key here is seeing the contrast of the Monarchy and the Republic, other than during the Regency period (which is even named as the First Republican experience), the Empire was a stable and functional state with a moderate figure at it's helm that prevented political divisions and instability from crippling the nation's growth as it did during many of the subsequent Republican governments.

I mean, would you economically wager your bets on a country that has an internal war every few years? Or which government can be overthrown in a coup and a new one decides to reverse the policies and risk your gains?
 
Perhaps the key here is seeing the contrast of the Monarchy and the Republic, other than during the Regency period (which is even named as the First Republican experience), the Empire was a stable and functional state with a moderate figure at it's helm that prevented political divisions and instability from crippling the nation's growth as it did during many of the subsequent Republican governments.

I mean, would you economically wager your bets on a country that has an internal war every few years? Or which government can be overthrown in a coup and a new one decides to reverse the policies and risk your gains?
I get what you mean but even still I don't think the contrast should disqualify the idea of a more stable republic. I can't help but think the consensus about how the only chance for a stable or powerful Brazil is one in which the monarchy survives to be a rather tiring stigma even if I understand why that is. Not that I'm accusing you of believing that or anything.
 
I get what you mean but even still I don't think the contrast should disqualify the idea of a more stable republic. I can't help but think the consensus about how the only chance for a stable or powerful Brazil is one in which the monarchy survives to be a rather tiring stigma even if I understand why that is. Not that I'm accusing you of believing that or anything.
Agreed, the Empire wasn't even particularly good, compared to like the Vargas and Populist eras in terms of industry.
I also really hate the idea that Brazil is destined to fail if it doesn't keep the monarchy
 
After 1889, there is no attempt to even pretend to institute a liberal constitution. A general quickly takes over, displaces the rest of the republican leadership, and makes himself dictator.

Its pretty similar to the contemporary Diaz regime in Mexico. In fact the economic development policies are very similar. There may be a republican, federal, and liberal constitution on paper, but the dictator at the time gets re-elected in every election, with a guaranteed majority in Congress and all the state legislatures, and he decides who the governors are.

At some point, this ends. It may be something similar to Vargas coming to power. It may be Vargas coming to power. It may be something similar to the Mexican revolution, or to the end of the military rule in Brazil in 1984. However, the transition happens sometime between 1910 and 1950.

The new regime is run by something similar to the Mexican PRI, however the economic policies are much sounder than the OTL twentieth century Brazil economic policies. The Brazilian version of the PRI gradually liberalizes and doesn't cling to power as long as its Mexican counterpart did.

This avoids much of the oligarchy, since the dictator cuts it down to size before it really develops, and when liberalization happens, the institutions and culture of the country are ready for it. I have referenced Mexico, and I think if you match twentieth century Mexican political history to Brazil's strategic situation and economic potential, you get a better result than both countries IOTL. But this also follows the South Korean development.

I would add no attempt to construct Brasilia, largely to avoid the additional debt and the isolation of the political class. If the center of Rio is too crowded, build a new government center in Barra de Tijuca and put the new government buildings there.
 
@Viriato
Sorry for the ping.
But you seem very well versed on the subject.
How to develop a Republican Brazil to its most full potential?

Use the money that the wasted on dreadnoughts (close to $9 million) on a national campaign for literacy. At that time just over one-fourth of the population over 5 years of age could read or write. Only in 1960 were over 50% of Brazilians considered literate. Perhaps build a few universities, as Brazil did not have its first university until 1920. The Asian Tigers after all invested heavily in education (as well as infrastructure). South Korea was able to achieve universal primary school enrollment by the 1960s.
 
Use the money that the wasted on dreadnoughts (close to $9 million) on a national campaign for literacy. At that time just over one-fourth of the population over 5 years of age could read or write. Only in 1960 were over 50% of Brazilians considered literate. Perhaps build a few universities, as Brazil did not have its first university until 1920. The Asian Tigers after all invested heavily in education (as well as infrastructure). South Korea was able to achieve universal primary school enrollment by the 1960s.
That sounds wise. What economic policies could kickstart rapid industrial growth?
Given the PoD is (fairly) early what would you say the maximum living standards an effective republican Brazil could reach?
 
Agreed, the Empire wasn't even particularly good, compared to like the Vargas and Populist eras in terms of industry.
I also really hate the idea that Brazil is destined to fail if it doesn't keep the monarchy
Indeed

I think the issue is more so how the republic started(Deodoro's coup, aforementioned Encilhamento policy) than anything to do with the government style(I do have my own reservations regarding presidentialism but the US show its possible to do well with that for quite a while)

Going with a POD in 1889 the First Republic was always going to be a military dictatorship, but it wasnt doomed to be a disaster so long it had good leadership, had it been like Estado Novo and successfully industrialized the nation(which, to be fair, it tried initially but failed spectacularly) before ending back as a democracy we would have done great, but having a figure as effective as Vargas would still require an earlier POD or changing the personality of someone like Floriano Peixoto

Later than that you have to kill the Old Republic if you want Brazil to do well, which also could have happened before, with a POD only a decade after the Proclamation(in 1900) I had the Revolt of the Whip do so for example, and granted I wont say that was a very realistic timeline at all but I do think an earlier end for Café com Leite was possible
 
Indeed

I think the issue is more so how the republic started(Deodoro's coup, aforementioned Encilhamento policy) than anything to do with the government style(I do have my own reservations regarding presidentialism but the US show its possible to do well with that for quite a while)

Going with a POD in 1889 the First Republic was always going to be a military dictatorship, but it wasnt doomed to be a disaster so long it had good leadership, had it been like Estado Novo and successfully industrialized the nation(which, to be fair, it tried initially but failed spectacularly) before ending back as a democracy we would have done great, but having a figure as effective as Vargas would still require an earlier POD or changing the personality of someone like Floriano Peixoto

Later than that you have to kill the Old Republic if you want Brazil to do well, which also could have happened before, with a POD only a decade after the Proclamation(in 1900) I had the Revolt of the Whip do so for example, and granted I wont say that was a very realistic timeline at all but I do think an earlier end for Café com Leite was possible
Or having Afonso Pena not die in office, in which case he appoints fellow mineiro David Morethson Campista to be the 1910 candidate, breaking the coffee-with-milk policy and possibly resulting in an earlier Revolution of 1930 or something similar
 
Or having Afonso Pena not die in office, in which case he appoints fellow mineiro David Morethson Campista to be the 1910 candidate, breaking the coffee-with-milk policy and possibly resulting in an earlier Revolution of 1930 or something similar
That sounds awesome
Im not sure if that would be an earlier 1930 though so much as "well I guess the First Republic doesnt suck as much now?" but anything that kills coffee-with-milk is an improvement
 
Later than that you have to kill the Old Republic if you want Brazil to do well, which also could have happened before, with a POD only a decade after the Proclamation(in 1900) I had the Revolt of the Whip do so for example, and granted I wont say that was a very realistic timeline at all but I do think an earlier end for Café com Leite was possible

Or for example, you could use as a POD the 1904 coup attempt that got mixed up with the Vaccine Revolt somehow succeeding...
 
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