The 1992 mayoral election, which pitted César Maia (a former ally of Leonel Briola who broke off with him a year prior due to disagrements on policy) and Benedita da Silva (a federal deputy who belonged to the Workers' Party), was one of the closest in the city's history, second only to the ones that took place in 2000 and 2008. The race, whose first round gave an 11 point lead to PT's candidate, ended with Maia getting 51,89% of the vote to Benedita's 48,11% after an acrimonious runoff that split the city along class lines, with the richer southern and central neighborhoods voting for the former and the poorer western and northern ones for the latter, as can be seen in the map below.
But what if Maia's campaign is either too soft or goes too far in its attacks (IOTL he accused PT of having ties to organized crime without any evidence, maybe he could commit a racist gaffe or two), and Benedita wins? Maia's tenure as mayor was extremely popular, with extensive urbanization projects and the construction of the "Yellow Line", one of the city's most important avenues nowadays. My guess is that Benedita would focus more on social assistance programs, and perhaps an attempt to replicate what PT was doing in Porto Alegre at the time, with participatory budgeting and other initiatives that turned the city in question into a stronghold for the party until the mid 2000s.
Assuming Benedita is successful to the extent Olívio Dutra and his successors were down south, she'll almost certainly be elected governor of the state of Rio de Janeiro in 1998, since I don't think this POD would affect Marcello Alencar's victory in 1994 or his disastrous governorship. A side effect of this is that Leonel Brizola and PDT will probably fade into near irrelevance even faster than IOTL (sadly), since they'd lose one of their last strongholds to PT, perhaps for good.
Lastly, Rio is often seen as the window through which the rest of the world looks at Brazil, so it would be interesting to speculate if having a black woman as mayor changed a thing or two, however minor it might be.
Assuming Benedita is successful to the extent Olívio Dutra and his successors were down south, she'll almost certainly be elected governor of the state of Rio de Janeiro in 1998, since I don't think this POD would affect Marcello Alencar's victory in 1994 or his disastrous governorship. A side effect of this is that Leonel Brizola and PDT will probably fade into near irrelevance even faster than IOTL (sadly), since they'd lose one of their last strongholds to PT, perhaps for good.
Lastly, Rio is often seen as the window through which the rest of the world looks at Brazil, so it would be interesting to speculate if having a black woman as mayor changed a thing or two, however minor it might be.
