I took too long with my edit, I see. See my last post for a time-wasting analysis.
EDIT: As for possible rebuttals, a few more points:
1. If Austria-Hungary is in the war, Germany obviously doesn't keep so many troops in France, duh.
Moltke's war plan in the event of war with France and Austria-Hungary called for the defeat of France before turning to Austria. Pulling troops out of France means the protection for the long lines of communications into France are dangerously weak. If one of the Republican Generals gets lucky...
2. Italy 200,000 vs Austria-Hungary 100,000 means Italians in Vienna, so Austria-Hungary has to pull troops away from the German and Russian frontiers to prevent this from happening.
If you're concerned about that, consider if the KuK decides to stay on the defensive against the Germans and Russians (say, 2/3 ratio of opposing forces) and beat the shit out of Italy. Play Custoza over again, but instead of an Italian 1.5+ to 1 advantage, give the Austrians a 1.5 to 1 advantage. Try Caporetto with no foreign help on for size.
EDIT: As for possible rebuttals, a few more points:
1. If Austria-Hungary is in the war, Germany obviously doesn't keep so many troops in France, duh.
Moltke's war plan in the event of war with France and Austria-Hungary called for the defeat of France before turning to Austria. Pulling troops out of France means the protection for the long lines of communications into France are dangerously weak. If one of the Republican Generals gets lucky...
2. Italy 200,000 vs Austria-Hungary 100,000 means Italians in Vienna, so Austria-Hungary has to pull troops away from the German and Russian frontiers to prevent this from happening.
If you're concerned about that, consider if the KuK decides to stay on the defensive against the Germans and Russians (say, 2/3 ratio of opposing forces) and beat the shit out of Italy. Play Custoza over again, but instead of an Italian 1.5+ to 1 advantage, give the Austrians a 1.5 to 1 advantage. Try Caporetto with no foreign help on for size.
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