Kind of a rough workup. A lot of details might change/be retconned. This wasn't originally written in, but thinking through my original plot for this update, it actually seemed too optimistic. There's hardly such a thing as a splendid first strike to begin with, and it certainly can't happen twice in this TL to the same country.
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[FONT="]PART XXXII[/FONT][FONT="]: November, 2004[/FONT]
"That which exists without my knowledge exists without my consent."
-The Judge, Cormac McCarthy’s Blood Meridian
[FONT="]“He woke up God from a deep, deep sleep,/ God was a major player in heaven”[/FONT]
-[FONT="]Nick Cave & The Bad Seeds, “The Lyre of Orpheus”[/FONT]
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[FONT="]“The fires were still burning in Boston and Air Force One was still in the air when the Second Ultimatum, as posterity would label it, went out to Islamabad, Riyadh, Tehran, Baghdad, Damascus, and several other capitals. Each received a slightly modified version; none were told other countries had received a similar list of demands… For Islamabad, the list was the most severe… American forces would move to de facto seize control of the country’s remaining nuclear arsenal as part of “joint security” measures… US forces would receive a “free fire” zone across virtually the whole country. Immediate whereabouts of all ISI contacts with the insurgency and Islamic terrorism were to be immediately released to the CIA… The penalty for non-compliance was retaliation with “the full force of American might to any extent necessary to protect the country from dire threat.”[/FONT]
-[FONT="]Frank Newsome, The Wars that Began the 21st Century[/FONT]
[FONT="]General Kayani got on his own plane when he first heard the bomb hit. Part of the reason was fear that whoever had the bombs might go after him next. Another was fear that if the terrorists did not, the Americans would do so instead. He received the Second Ultimatum with some delay, and instead first heard reports of American troops engaging in major clashes in the FATA and NWFP. Several of his more conservative advisors noted Indian military mobilizations along the LOC and immediately ordered the country’s nuclear arsenal to maximum readiness.[/FONT]
[FONT="]When the Second Ultimatum arrived mid-flight, Kayani was not in a receptive mood. Unbeknownst to him, Pakistan’s ever shifting political dynamics were turning on Kayani. As fierce debate erupted over the American demands, officers on the ground loyal to Muhammad Aziz Khan, the hero of Kashmiri separatists and a victim of Musharraf’s purge of pro-Taliban officers, began acting on a separate chain of authority after intercepting news of the Second Ultimatum. While the officers involved in this coup were certainly supporters of Khan, the direct amount of his involvement is still unclear. The ISI according to some sources had been briefing him on Pakistan’s internal situation. Khan was certainly aware of the officers’ contingency plan to protect Pakistan’s nuclear weapons from a separate attempt at American seizure or destruction, and so Khan knew that Pakistani soldiers were now fortifying for an assault by US troops. Their fears transpired.[/FONT]
[FONT="]JSOC’s rapid response teams had already practiced operations for seizing Pakistani nuclear weapons, and before Kayani’s response, they were already on the move and setting up. American aircraft were already inbound towards Pakistan within twenty minutes of the Boston bomb. Kayani’s men and Powell’s men were engaging in a shouting match via satellite phone, which then became a shouting match between McCain and Kayani. They were at an impasse when Armitage, onboard Air Force One unlike Powell, exhorted the President to be completely open about the nuclear threat and simply seize the Pakistani nuclear sites. McCain dismissed the notion as too rash. Things had to calm down. Kayani’s plane landed several hours later, Air Force One remained in flight thanks to mid-air refueling.[/FONT]
[FONT="]McCain delivered his speech to the country. Resolve and exhaustion moderated his anger, but his feelings were clear. McCain explained the country’s course of action.[/FONT]
[FONT="]“Our country faces its gravest danger since the Civil War… For sixty years after we glimpsed the terrible power of our creation in Hiroshima, we took up the awful burden of defending the free world through the power of deterrence. The strength of arms came not from their use but their existence, and while we glimpsed catastrophe, logic prevailed. Our enemies understood the cold reason of mutually assured destruction. We now face an enemy that sees no value in human life not rendered obedient to a twisted, heretical interpretation of one of the Abrahamic faiths… We are not at war with Islam. We are at war with the butchers of Boston. We are at war with whoever hides them. We are at war with whoever furnishes them with such terrible weapons. The world cannot live in fear of another nuclear attack… In the wake of today’s tragedy, there came unheard of cooperation. From London, Paris, Moscow, Beijing, and New Dehli, I have received messages of sympathy and more vitally, assurances and intelligence about this attack. More notably, our intelligence agencies, in which I have the highest confidence, have indicated the most likely source of the nuclear weapon responsible for today’s atrocity. It in all likelihood came from Pakistan… We call upon General Kayani, and the Pakistani government and armed forces, to comply with our demands, or face war… There will be temporary federalization of emergency response services in the greater Boston area… We are taking measures to prepare for another attack… Americans must also understand our response to this new time of crisis cannot be borne by the few. This is a national challenge, and it necessitates a truly national solution. In order to supplement our security, both foreign and domestic, I will request from Congress legislative authorization to activate the Selective Service system… May the Lord have mercy upon us all.”[/FONT]
[FONT="]Pakistan was under total martial law. The media blackout was not complete, but any station televising Muhammad Aziz Khan’s provocative speeches, or any similar nationalist or Islamist sentiment, received harsh censorship from the government. Radio Sharia, nevertheless, the Taliban’s pirate broadcasting system, was playing strong, not just in the provinces but in Punjab and Balochistan.[/FONT]
[FONT="]The body count was going up in Rawalpindi, Peshawar, Islamabad, and Karachi. Quetta only stayed quiet because it was steadfastly in favor of the Taliban, the Pakistani military units dispatched there included. Firefights were flaring up in Kashmir again. Kayani was holed up in Islamabad. In the Rawalpindi General Headquarters, however, a new plot was afoot. Everyone knew of McCain’s demands. Nobody was willing to accept them. It was clearly a plot to dismember Pakistan. For those few Pakistanis who did not believe that was the intent, they still felt it an inevitable consequence. The question was how far Pakistan should take its response. Some though Pakistan could pull it off – China was not going to let the United States walk over Pakistan entirely, was it?[/FONT]
[FONT="]Kayani was having heart attacks, many insisted. He couldn’t be trusted to command. He was going to fold any moment. When he collapsed after dinner on November 5th, the General Staff took control of the country. Their first challenge came within hours.[/FONT]
[FONT="]McCain handed down one final ultimatum. The ISI had not handed anyone over or even provided useful advice beyond a few minor Taliban officials. No accounts were provided of the missing bombs, no American officials were being allowed entry to nuclear sites for nuclear forensics verification.[/FONT]
[FONT="]The General Staff responded that they needed more time for any of these things to occur. They were stalling for international fervor to wane. As fighting between Pakistanis and American soldiers heightened in intensity though, it really looked like they were stalling for military advantage, a notion Pakistani guarding of the nuclear sites reinforced.[/FONT]
[FONT="]The last straw came when a UH-60 went down near the border with Quetta due to Pakistani AA fire. McCain gave the Pakistanis an hour to comply, and then it filtered up the chain of command that an American officer from the clashed UH-60 had fallen capture to the Taliban, who should not have had access to the AA position that had taken down the helicopter in the first place.[/FONT]
[FONT="]JSOC teams around Pakistan’s mobile nuclear weapons and delivery systems lit up their targets. American aircraft responded quickly – first came stealth attacks on AAD, followed up dangerously quickly by B-2s and B-1s from Diego Garcia and the Gulf, which dropped tons and tons of explosives on launch systems and air force bases. Strike fighters and cruise missiles laid waste to Pakistan’s F-16 fleet. Most of its missile capabilities were under severe threat. What remained were gravity bombs and fewer aircraft to carry them. Things spun out of control within two hours after that.[/FONT]
[FONT="]As part of Pakistan’s assurance policy in the wake of the Boston bombing, fighters with nuclear bombs were kept in the air in case of an Indian first strike. The humiliation the country suffered in Khan, when it was caught unprepared for the US first strike was not to recur. So Mirage 2000s flew off to war with a third country that had no hand in the bombings but everything, it seemed, to gain from them.[/FONT]
[FONT="]India demanded the aircraft stand down, but it was essentially too late. When Pakistani aircraft began falling to AAD as they crossed the border, Pakistan’s remaining ballistic missile capabilities readied for launch. Indian aircraft launched retaliatory strikes on Pakistani nuclear sites, airbases and troop formations. Pakistani troops began massive artillery barrages, not just in Kashmir but Punjab and Rajasthan. India promptly responded. In some cases the order was reversed. Things were deteriorating at an alarming rate. Then, finally, Pakistanis pulled the nuclear trigger, hitting Indian naval formations that might launch cruise missiles at Pakistan’s weakened seaward flank. Short range launchers in Rajasthan also fell to Pakistani nuclear arms. Attempts to destroy Indian ballistic missiles failed. During the flight time of these weapons, Indian vessels retaliated, hitting Karachi, and sent ballistic missiles towards Pakistani launch sites and military bases. Rawalpindi went up, then Lahore. Pakistani government ceased to exist. The Pakistani retaliation against primarily civilian targets was limited to Mumbai. The ballistic missile launch at New Dehli failed. The US redoubled its efforts to destroy remaining Pakistani nuclear arms. No more weapons launched. US forces in Pakistan hunkered down to forward operating bases and began engaging Pakistani troops and militias that came afterwards. The US, unable to get any reliable intelligence on the apocalyptic events at the border, gave up its façade of arbitration and neutrality and contacted the Indian government. American troops could not occupy even marginal amounts of Pakistan. The US forces hunkered down to forward operating bases and most prepared to pull out of Pakistan altogether.[/FONT]
[FONT="]“Another nuclear explosion, this time in Rawalpindi… Our correspondents on the ground in Peshawar are telling us this likely means the Pakistani military staff, and thus much of the government there, has just been killed… There is no telling what happens next.”[/FONT]
-[FONT="]BBC World Service, November 5th, 2004[/FONT]