Been Winning So Long, I've Lost It - The Long War TL
- Thread starter Blochead
- Start date
Indeed. Of course, the mixture of victimhood, power, and initial success helped turn OTL's War on Terror into OTL's debacle.
The question is, if you intensify all of these... Is it better or worse?
God timeline, Blochead.
I like it. Or rather I find it interesting, well written and thought out.
Being a bit of a McCain fan, I'm curious as to how this ATL will proceed.
That, I suppose, is whether or not it serves to focus the respons in an overwhelming way - say Afghanistan with 200,000 men (or some such) - or to spread the respons over several countries, areas and regions all at once.
With a draft and total public support I would think to US capable of handling both Afghanistan and ex. Iraq at the same time. Militarily, that is. And probably a few minor trouble spots as well. The rebuilding and counter-terrorism effort, however, demand lots of time, effort and experienced manpower. The Special Forces and intelligence assets would be spread very thin all of a sudden, and then it's worse.
I'm looking foward to next installment!
Regards and all!
- Bluenote.
I like it. Or rather I find it interesting, well written and thought out.
Being a bit of a McCain fan, I'm curious as to how this ATL will proceed.
That, I suppose, is whether or not it serves to focus the respons in an overwhelming way - say Afghanistan with 200,000 men (or some such) - or to spread the respons over several countries, areas and regions all at once.
With a draft and total public support I would think to US capable of handling both Afghanistan and ex. Iraq at the same time. Militarily, that is. And probably a few minor trouble spots as well. The rebuilding and counter-terrorism effort, however, demand lots of time, effort and experienced manpower. The Special Forces and intelligence assets would be spread very thin all of a sudden, and then it's worse.
I'm looking foward to next installment!
Regards and all!
- Bluenote.
Thanks, and yes, I wouldn't expect anyone to like the scenario playing out.
I was a bit of a McCain fan myself (not so sure now), so I promise he won't turn into Satan. But I figure he's the best person to "escalate" the War on Terror in this manner.
A little bit of column A, a little bit of column B.
I was thinking about the same thing. The question is just where all the manpower goes...
Thanks, and it's on its way.
Probably a silly question here, but who will the Democrats nominate in 2004? Will we still see Barack Obama in '08? Keep up the good work and I'm looking forward to the next part.
Haven't figured it out this far, but I will note this: I do not think Barack Obama would be as successful as he was OTL without Iraq happening (the way it did, anyway).
Of course, whether Iraq happens is an open question in this TL - and I know people are expecting something like that to see a real War on Terror gone wrong TL, but I promise you I can think of something worse if necessary.
Well, it's a compliment. I suppose.
Thanks!
PART IX: September-November 2001
“You say it is the good cause that hallows even war? I tell you: it is the good war that hallows every cause.”
-[FONT="] [/FONT]Friedrich Nietzsche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra
“If they want eternal war, well and good; we accept the issue, and will dispossess them and put our friends in their place.”
-[FONT="] [/FONT]William Tecumseh Sherman
---
“According to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, bombing against Taliban targets and airdrops of humanitarian aid to refugees began on the same day… So this is how we fight: making war against governments, and providing succor to the people. The distinction in theory is obvious. Maintaining it in practice will be the great challenge of the coming years.”
-[FONT="] [/FONT]from Foreign Affairs, November/December 2001 issue
This was the war Americans liked to fight. From high above, with impunity, and consciences comforted by big planes marked USAF dropping the packages marked USAID. Strategic bombers were never under threat for a moment – the B-1s, B-2s, and B-52s attacked what they wanted, when they wanted to. What little air defense the Taliban possessed before the bombing campaign could not touch them. There were fears that Stinger missiles leftover from the 1980s might, in some suitably ironic effort, down lower flying fighters, but this never came to be. Carrier based aircraft faced nothing but small arms and a handful of crew-served guns.
The only Americans on the ground were yet to be spoken of – Special Forces, wrapped in local clothing, riding horses, but brandishing customized rifles and next-generation communications gear, were riding with the Northern Alliance, especially Massoud’s “Lions.” They engaged and defeated the Taliban in combat, supported from the air by NATO bombers. By the closing week of October, larger numbers of NATO Special Forces were on the ground, and an assault against the critical airfield at Mazar-e-Sharif had begun. After a one sided victory in early November, news also came of a Taliban abandonment of Kabul, ushering in their almost complete collapse save for the southeast.
However, with the onset of winter, the war against the Taliban had to be paced. Such stunning success had left NATO and the Northern Alliance with 75% of the country to care for. As thousands of NATO regulars began landing in Afghanistan, humanitarian assistance became the primary operation throughout much of the country. But for the pocket around Kandahar and the Pakistani border, search and destroy was still NATO’s modus operandi. McCain wanted the Taliban wiped out before 2002, knowing they would reorganize in the Pakistani Federally Administered Tribal Areas.
“We can hear the bombs falling across the border, on our brothers. They are waging a war against Pakistan’s people too, on Islam. And the Western puppets can shoot at us, but in every city in Pakistan the people are making their true feelings apparent.”
- Unknown Pakistani, Islamabad rallies, October 3rd, 2001, as reported on BBC News
PART X: September-December 2001
“Men are born for games. Nothing else. Every child knows that play is nobler than work. He knows too that the worth or merit of a game is not inherent in the game itself but rather in the value of that which is put at hazard. Games of chance require a wager to have meaning at all. Games of sport involve the skill and strength of the opponents and the humiliation of defeat and the pride of victory are in themselves sufficient stake because they inhere in the worth of the principals and define them. But the trial of chance or trial of worth all games aspire to the condition of war for here that which is wagered swallows up the game, player, all.”
-The Judge, in Cormac McCarthy’s Blood Meridian
“Politics, n. A strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles.”
-Ambrose Bierce, The Devil’s Dictionary
---
“The inevitability of trans-national conflict was apparent months before the December offensive. Two days after American aircraft crossed Pakistani airspace to bomb Afghanistan, Musharraf began a major reorganization of his military and security leadership, reassigning of forcing the resignation even of officers who had helped him gain power in the 1999 coup d’etat against Sharif. However, in those uncertain days, Musharraf feared the rhetoric of Armitage… more than his former comrades… The most vital removal was that of Mahmud Ahmed [the DG of the ISI], who, then unbeknownst to the US, had been financially linked to the 9/11 hijackers… Deputy Chief of Staff Muzaffar Usmani also prematurely ‘retired,’ though he was less popular among the fundamentalists and less involved in any compromising activity. The biggest challenge for Musharraf was then-Corps Commander [and pre-coup ISI Deputy Director] Muhammad Aziz Khan. Khan, of the influential Sudhan tribe, commanded the loyalties of many fundamentalist Pakistanis… His removal was particularly problematic because of his role in the Kargil War and his heroic status among the Jammu and Kashmir lobby. Musharraf initially refused Powell’s request for Khan’s removal and was able to keep him in power until October 20th, when Armitage threatened again to bomb Pashtun fighters crossing into the Southeastern Pocket from the FATA… Musharraf decided it would be better to administer the bitter medicine of secularization than threaten the collapse of the Pakistani state. Realizing the collapse of the Taliban as a useful ally, Musharraf could not condone going to war so his citizens could fight for them… It is unclear whether Musharraf could have avoided angering the fundamentalists while acceding to US demands. What is clear is that Musharraf did not adequately prepare for the backlash that was to come.”
-The Other Side of Terror: Pakistan’s ISI and the Rise of al Qaeda
November’s end brought a resumption of major combat operations. As NATO and the Northern Alliance digested their conquests, the Taliban regrouped around Kandahar, greatly bolstered by large numbers of Pakistani volunteers. The US, in the meantime, had been bombing the area round-the-clock with B-52s, hoping to level what it thought was a massive underground cave complex.
In truth, Tora Bora’s defenses were far less elaborate. What made Tora Bora truly special were reports by captured insurgents from Yemen and reports from NATO troops scanning VHF frequencies indicated this had been the holdout of Osama bin Laden since November. Such a prize could not be given up, and the White House watched Tora Bora fully aware of the opportunities at hand.
“On December 4th, US troops spearheaded the final assault on the Tora Bora complex… Resistance was stiff but futile: the panicked full-automatic fire of the insurgents sharply contrasted the controlled bursts by American troops… They fired mortars with little regard for accuracy… By December 5th, CIA and Special Forces operatives received word that bin Laden and his entourage were headed south towards Parachinar, a major center of support for the Taliban… Around the time of direct ground-to-Washington communications at 3AM on December 6th, all press staff were pushed behind the original lines of battle… What was said is still unknown, but that evening, while meeting with a truck convoy in Pakistan, US forces engaged bin Laden’s entourage… there were no survivors.”
-Christian Science Monitor, December 10th, 2001
“I authorized our men to find, capture, or kill bin Laden… Pakistan was aware of our presence in the border area, but we could not disclose the nature of our operations until they had succeeded.”
-John McCain, press conference on December 8th, upon the announcement of bin Laden’s death
“The engagement occurred at the border, and our troops were not in a position to respond. The cooperation of the United States is vital to Pakistan’s security and that of the globe, and to suggest Pakistan should obstruct the serving of international justice is absurd.”
-Pervez Musharraf, December 8th, to the Dawn newspaper
“Our own government was tricked and wants to pass off this embarrassment as a triumph. Pakistan receives no respect from foreign countries or its own people for a simple reason: Musharraf’s submission to the United States and the abrogation of its own sovereignty… He has betrayed our brothers in Afghanistan, the heroes of its army, and its rightful role as a country founded to defend the Islamic faith… There can be no compromise, no recourse but force, to restore our dignity… Our government must serve none but Allah.”
-Declaration attributed to various fundamentalists groups and al Qaeda, first found printed in Peshawar, December 15th, 2001
“Men are born for games. Nothing else. Every child knows that play is nobler than work. He knows too that the worth or merit of a game is not inherent in the game itself but rather in the value of that which is put at hazard. Games of chance require a wager to have meaning at all. Games of sport involve the skill and strength of the opponents and the humiliation of defeat and the pride of victory are in themselves sufficient stake because they inhere in the worth of the principals and define them. But the trial of chance or trial of worth all games aspire to the condition of war for here that which is wagered swallows up the game, player, all.”
-The Judge, in Cormac McCarthy’s Blood Meridian
“Politics, n. A strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles.”
-Ambrose Bierce, The Devil’s Dictionary
---
“The inevitability of trans-national conflict was apparent months before the December offensive. Two days after American aircraft crossed Pakistani airspace to bomb Afghanistan, Musharraf began a major reorganization of his military and security leadership, reassigning of forcing the resignation even of officers who had helped him gain power in the 1999 coup d’etat against Sharif. However, in those uncertain days, Musharraf feared the rhetoric of Armitage… more than his former comrades… The most vital removal was that of Mahmud Ahmed [the DG of the ISI], who, then unbeknownst to the US, had been financially linked to the 9/11 hijackers… Deputy Chief of Staff Muzaffar Usmani also prematurely ‘retired,’ though he was less popular among the fundamentalists and less involved in any compromising activity. The biggest challenge for Musharraf was then-Corps Commander [and pre-coup ISI Deputy Director] Muhammad Aziz Khan. Khan, of the influential Sudhan tribe, commanded the loyalties of many fundamentalist Pakistanis… His removal was particularly problematic because of his role in the Kargil War and his heroic status among the Jammu and Kashmir lobby. Musharraf initially refused Powell’s request for Khan’s removal and was able to keep him in power until October 20th, when Armitage threatened again to bomb Pashtun fighters crossing into the Southeastern Pocket from the FATA… Musharraf decided it would be better to administer the bitter medicine of secularization than threaten the collapse of the Pakistani state. Realizing the collapse of the Taliban as a useful ally, Musharraf could not condone going to war so his citizens could fight for them… It is unclear whether Musharraf could have avoided angering the fundamentalists while acceding to US demands. What is clear is that Musharraf did not adequately prepare for the backlash that was to come.”
-The Other Side of Terror: Pakistan’s ISI and the Rise of al Qaeda
November’s end brought a resumption of major combat operations. As NATO and the Northern Alliance digested their conquests, the Taliban regrouped around Kandahar, greatly bolstered by large numbers of Pakistani volunteers. The US, in the meantime, had been bombing the area round-the-clock with B-52s, hoping to level what it thought was a massive underground cave complex.
In truth, Tora Bora’s defenses were far less elaborate. What made Tora Bora truly special were reports by captured insurgents from Yemen and reports from NATO troops scanning VHF frequencies indicated this had been the holdout of Osama bin Laden since November. Such a prize could not be given up, and the White House watched Tora Bora fully aware of the opportunities at hand.
“On December 4th, US troops spearheaded the final assault on the Tora Bora complex… Resistance was stiff but futile: the panicked full-automatic fire of the insurgents sharply contrasted the controlled bursts by American troops… They fired mortars with little regard for accuracy… By December 5th, CIA and Special Forces operatives received word that bin Laden and his entourage were headed south towards Parachinar, a major center of support for the Taliban… Around the time of direct ground-to-Washington communications at 3AM on December 6th, all press staff were pushed behind the original lines of battle… What was said is still unknown, but that evening, while meeting with a truck convoy in Pakistan, US forces engaged bin Laden’s entourage… there were no survivors.”
-Christian Science Monitor, December 10th, 2001
“I authorized our men to find, capture, or kill bin Laden… Pakistan was aware of our presence in the border area, but we could not disclose the nature of our operations until they had succeeded.”
-John McCain, press conference on December 8th, upon the announcement of bin Laden’s death
“The engagement occurred at the border, and our troops were not in a position to respond. The cooperation of the United States is vital to Pakistan’s security and that of the globe, and to suggest Pakistan should obstruct the serving of international justice is absurd.”
-Pervez Musharraf, December 8th, to the Dawn newspaper
“Our own government was tricked and wants to pass off this embarrassment as a triumph. Pakistan receives no respect from foreign countries or its own people for a simple reason: Musharraf’s submission to the United States and the abrogation of its own sovereignty… He has betrayed our brothers in Afghanistan, the heroes of its army, and its rightful role as a country founded to defend the Islamic faith… There can be no compromise, no recourse but force, to restore our dignity… Our government must serve none but Allah.”
-Declaration attributed to various fundamentalists groups and al Qaeda, first found printed in Peshawar, December 15th, 2001
Last edited:
Oh, this is good, Blochead. And as Zach said, the style is quite good and works very well.
Regarding the war, you made a note about the coming of winther. From what I've heard the pause in winther Ops in Afghanistan are more down to the passes between Pakaistan and Afghanistan are being closed than to NATO's inability to fight in winther conditions. That's why the Taliban always launches spring offensives - it's when they can cross the border in numbers again. Or so I've heard.
On McCain; In many ways I think he has the potential for getting the US into more trouble than Bush. Yeah, it's hard to imagine, but I suspect that McCain wil be less interested in Iraq, but much, much more interested in Syria and Iran. With Japan in the game, North Korea might even appeare in the cross hairs. Furthermore I think that the Saudis and Pakistaini will experience a much tougher love under a McCain presidency than under Bush's ditto.
Anyway, I find myself thinking this is how the war should have been fought, only to realise that, in this ATL at least, that will generate unwanted backlash.
Do keep the posts coming!
Best regards!
- Bluenote.
Regarding the war, you made a note about the coming of winther. From what I've heard the pause in winther Ops in Afghanistan are more down to the passes between Pakaistan and Afghanistan are being closed than to NATO's inability to fight in winther conditions. That's why the Taliban always launches spring offensives - it's when they can cross the border in numbers again. Or so I've heard.
On McCain; In many ways I think he has the potential for getting the US into more trouble than Bush. Yeah, it's hard to imagine, but I suspect that McCain wil be less interested in Iraq, but much, much more interested in Syria and Iran. With Japan in the game, North Korea might even appeare in the cross hairs. Furthermore I think that the Saudis and Pakistaini will experience a much tougher love under a McCain presidency than under Bush's ditto.
Anyway, I find myself thinking this is how the war should have been fought, only to realise that, in this ATL at least, that will generate unwanted backlash.
Do keep the posts coming!
Best regards!
- Bluenote.
Ah-hah, so Pakistan will become more and more unstable...in a more striking way than OTL at least. Fun times in the Ol' Northwest Frontier, I'd imagine.
Great update, by the way. [Felt it necessary to balance my previous compliment with a more direct one.]
Great update, by the way. [Felt it necessary to balance my previous compliment with a more direct one.]
Thanks again.
Yeah, this is true. I was thinking more that NATO would have to spend less time fighting and more time "winning hearts and minds" so it wouldn't have a humanitarian disaster on its hands. After all, NATO knocked out power for a lot of Afghan cities, etc. NATO can still fight in winter - hence the December offensive - and they want to do so before mobility can be restored for the larger mass of pro-Taliban fighters.
I agree - Iran especially will become problematic with no Iraq war. The NIE estimate points towards Iran freezing their nuclear weapons program after the US invasion of Iraq, they might have an incentive to continue it if they think the US has become bogged down in Pakistan.
I've also realized that in a lot of ways, throwing the OTL Iraq invasion into the equation makes further entanglement in the war on terror much less likely. Because of public opinion of Iraq as an illegitimate conflict, it a) killed public support for further wars and b) killed any chances of a military expansion large enough to handle conflicts outside Iraq and Afghanistan anyway.
Of course, letting Saddam stick around longer will probably lead to some issues... One of which could include higher oil revenues.
I feel the same way writing it, at times.
NATO regular troops are from OTL countries. Japan has a much larger presence as well, though they try to stay out of combat. Most of the special forces are US and UK.
Yup.
No problem, haha. I do take your confidence that I can outdo OTL as a compliment, though (given a lot of people think OTL was close to the worst case).
Thanks, and yeah... ooops. Fixed now, though.
Thank you, there'll be a new update rather soon.
That's certainly possible. Actually, the East Asian geopolitical implications of what is happening (and about to happen) in East Asia is pretty interesting...
PART XI: September 2001-January 2002
“War is God’s way of teaching Americans geography.”
-Ambrose Bierce
“All that wells up from the depths of the young soul is cast in the old moulds, young feelings stiffen in senile practices, and instead of expanding its own creative power, it can only hate the distant power with a hate that grows to be monstrous. This is the case of the Arabian Culture.”
-Oswald Spengler, Decline of the West [1]
“Every Muslim, from the moment they realize the distinction in their hearts, hates Americans, hates Jews and hates Christians. For as long as I can remember, I have felt tormented and at war, and have felt hatred and animosity for Americans.”
-Osama bin Laden
“All that we have mentioned has made it easy for us to provoke and bait this administration. All that we have to do is send two mujahedeen… to raise a piece of cloth on which is written Al Qaeda, in order to make the generals race there…”
-Osama bin Laden
---
“This is a world problem, and that means this war does not end in Afghanistan. We must assist our allies in their own struggles against terror, wherever they may be.”
-John McCain
“60 years after Japan came to the Philippines as conquerors, they’re returning – as allies in the new war on terror. As part of Overwhelming Resolve – Philippines (OOR-P), Japanese naval and ground forces will provide humanitarian and military aid in concert with the US and Australia… In addition to combating the insurgency in the Southern Philippines, OOR-P will provide valuable training exercises for JSDF forces, which had not conducted major operations on foreign soil until 2001… Prime Minister Koizumi says the deployments in Afghanistan and the Philippines are ‘crucial to the new global reality’ and ‘important to Japan’s reputation as a responsible country.’”
-International Herald Tribune, December 29th, 2001
“Several Russian officials, including Vladimir Putin, expressed disapproval at US plans to deploy military advisors to Georgia next month… The Georgian government requested US aid to fight Islamic insurgents in the Pankisi Gorge region… While Russia considers its war against Islamic militants like the Chechens as its own role in the war on terror, many Russians are concerned that with a major US presence in Central Asia, and an increasing one in the Caucasus, that the West may be exploiting its operations for geopolitical gain against Russia…”
-New York Times, January 3rd, 2002
“America’s Reluctant Allies: The first part in a continuing series
… While publicly, Saudi Arabia has condemned the 9/11 attacks and tried to improve its international image, private diplomatic communication tells a different story. Sources inside the FBI and State Department told the Journal that Saudi Arabia is stalling cooperation with Western law enforcement agencies in the investigation of the 9/11 hijackers and al Qaeda funding, much of which comes from Saudi Arabia… The 2000 carbombings of two British nationals the Saudis claimed were ‘illegal alcohol traders’ is also a sticking issue… The use of a hand grenade to kill an American and injure several others in Al Khobar in the wake of Operation Overwhelming Resolve has lead the US to demand thorough investigations into terrorist activities in Saudi Arabia – a demand with which the Saudi government is not eager to comply… If the Saudis do not reach a compromise, proposed arms deals for counterterrorist funding and the maintenance of the Saudi regular military may not go through…”
-Wall Street Journal, November 5th, 2001
“US officials refused to comment on growing instability in Uzbekistan, currently providing basing for NATO forces in the war in Afghanistan… Fearing the Western onslaught, many Islamist insurgents from neighbouring countries fled Afghanistan, returning to wage campaigns against the autocrats of their own countries… Former Soviet republics like Uzbekistan have not seen a change in leadership since independence was thrust upon them in 1991… Rampant corruption and political repression have helped fuel both violent movements such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and larger, nonviolent groups such as the Islamic Party of Liberation, which US analysts fear may radicalise into a terrorist movement… Given the turmoil’s impact on the strategically important Fergana Valley, many defence analysts believe that continuing unrest may prompt a military deployment…”
- The Guardian, December 5th, 2001
[1] Probably a good time to point to point out that I do not necessarily endorse the content of the epigraphs I choose.
“War is God’s way of teaching Americans geography.”
-Ambrose Bierce
“All that wells up from the depths of the young soul is cast in the old moulds, young feelings stiffen in senile practices, and instead of expanding its own creative power, it can only hate the distant power with a hate that grows to be monstrous. This is the case of the Arabian Culture.”
-Oswald Spengler, Decline of the West [1]
“Every Muslim, from the moment they realize the distinction in their hearts, hates Americans, hates Jews and hates Christians. For as long as I can remember, I have felt tormented and at war, and have felt hatred and animosity for Americans.”
-Osama bin Laden
“All that we have mentioned has made it easy for us to provoke and bait this administration. All that we have to do is send two mujahedeen… to raise a piece of cloth on which is written Al Qaeda, in order to make the generals race there…”
-Osama bin Laden
---
“This is a world problem, and that means this war does not end in Afghanistan. We must assist our allies in their own struggles against terror, wherever they may be.”
-John McCain
“60 years after Japan came to the Philippines as conquerors, they’re returning – as allies in the new war on terror. As part of Overwhelming Resolve – Philippines (OOR-P), Japanese naval and ground forces will provide humanitarian and military aid in concert with the US and Australia… In addition to combating the insurgency in the Southern Philippines, OOR-P will provide valuable training exercises for JSDF forces, which had not conducted major operations on foreign soil until 2001… Prime Minister Koizumi says the deployments in Afghanistan and the Philippines are ‘crucial to the new global reality’ and ‘important to Japan’s reputation as a responsible country.’”
-International Herald Tribune, December 29th, 2001
“Several Russian officials, including Vladimir Putin, expressed disapproval at US plans to deploy military advisors to Georgia next month… The Georgian government requested US aid to fight Islamic insurgents in the Pankisi Gorge region… While Russia considers its war against Islamic militants like the Chechens as its own role in the war on terror, many Russians are concerned that with a major US presence in Central Asia, and an increasing one in the Caucasus, that the West may be exploiting its operations for geopolitical gain against Russia…”
-New York Times, January 3rd, 2002
“America’s Reluctant Allies: The first part in a continuing series
… While publicly, Saudi Arabia has condemned the 9/11 attacks and tried to improve its international image, private diplomatic communication tells a different story. Sources inside the FBI and State Department told the Journal that Saudi Arabia is stalling cooperation with Western law enforcement agencies in the investigation of the 9/11 hijackers and al Qaeda funding, much of which comes from Saudi Arabia… The 2000 carbombings of two British nationals the Saudis claimed were ‘illegal alcohol traders’ is also a sticking issue… The use of a hand grenade to kill an American and injure several others in Al Khobar in the wake of Operation Overwhelming Resolve has lead the US to demand thorough investigations into terrorist activities in Saudi Arabia – a demand with which the Saudi government is not eager to comply… If the Saudis do not reach a compromise, proposed arms deals for counterterrorist funding and the maintenance of the Saudi regular military may not go through…”
-Wall Street Journal, November 5th, 2001
“US officials refused to comment on growing instability in Uzbekistan, currently providing basing for NATO forces in the war in Afghanistan… Fearing the Western onslaught, many Islamist insurgents from neighbouring countries fled Afghanistan, returning to wage campaigns against the autocrats of their own countries… Former Soviet republics like Uzbekistan have not seen a change in leadership since independence was thrust upon them in 1991… Rampant corruption and political repression have helped fuel both violent movements such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and larger, nonviolent groups such as the Islamic Party of Liberation, which US analysts fear may radicalise into a terrorist movement… Given the turmoil’s impact on the strategically important Fergana Valley, many defence analysts believe that continuing unrest may prompt a military deployment…”
- The Guardian, December 5th, 2001
[1] Probably a good time to point to point out that I do not necessarily endorse the content of the epigraphs I choose.
PART XII: December 2001-January 2002
“You are mortal men. You are capable of error.”
-[FONT="] [/FONT]George F. Kennan
“Honor has not to be won; it must only not be lost.”
-[FONT="] [/FONT]Arthur Schopenhauer
“Carry on any enterprise as if all future success depends on it.”
-[FONT="] [/FONT]Cardinal Richelieu
---
There was a world before 9/11. It was still there afterwards, if you looked for it. If you didn’t, it had a tendency to intrude at the most inopportune moments.
“BREAKING NEWS: INDIAN PARLIAMENT ATTACKED BY ISLAMIC TERRORISTS… Five terrorists with suicide vests and automatic weapons launched an assault on the Indian Parliament in New Dehli today… Among the victims are Minister of State Harin Pathak along with six policemen, two Parliament guards, and at least three staff members were killed. Sources say the gunmen shot their way into the building before detonating their bombs in various rooms… This just in, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee has been wounded and is in critical condition… Lal Krishna Advani, Minister of Home Affairs, has taken control of the government.”
-[FONT="] [/FONT]CNN, December 11th [1]
“Washington called for answers – Pakistan needed to crack down on the Kashmiri militants immediately. Coming just days after Osama bin Laden’s death, and in the wake of mass public unrest, Musharraf found himself friendless… He could have appealed to the hero of the Kashmiri fighters, Aziz Khan, but the Americans had forced Musharraf to sack him. With the Line of Control militarizing again and potential enemies on both sides, Musharraf turned to the only option that remains for most army strongmen – he sent in the troops, this time, against his own people.”
-[FONT="] [/FONT]The Other Side of Terror: Pakistan’s ISI and the Rise of al Qaeda
Pakistan was under martial law. It could not be specifically directed against the Kashmiri – this would be a recipe for certain disaster – so Musharraf essentially justified it as part of a national effort to prepare for war with India. Nevertheless, the opposition was angry and the fundamentalists were wary. Critically, Musharraf moved several hundred thousand soldiers from the Afghani frontier to Kashmir. Nuclear missiles on both sides were readied for action. The Indian navy loomed ominously near Pakistan.
Meanwhile, the domestic response provided the raw complement to the abstract, hypothetical war that could be. Anti-Muslim riots broke out in Gujarat and several other border states in January, as sweeping government anti-terror laws lead to the detention or relocation of “suspected terrorists,” and the disruption of their businesses. Muslim terrorists responded with grenade attacks, train bombings, and a variety of other attacks throughout January. By the close of the month, a process that many foreign reporters and human rights observers described as a “pogrom” coordinated between Hindu militants and local officials was in motion.
On January 10th, several NATO countries began a frantic effort to prevent the escalation of the standoff…
[1] Roughly based on an OTL event, with a slight alteration in the date.
“You are mortal men. You are capable of error.”
-[FONT="] [/FONT]George F. Kennan
“Honor has not to be won; it must only not be lost.”
-[FONT="] [/FONT]Arthur Schopenhauer
“Carry on any enterprise as if all future success depends on it.”
-[FONT="] [/FONT]Cardinal Richelieu
---
There was a world before 9/11. It was still there afterwards, if you looked for it. If you didn’t, it had a tendency to intrude at the most inopportune moments.
“BREAKING NEWS: INDIAN PARLIAMENT ATTACKED BY ISLAMIC TERRORISTS… Five terrorists with suicide vests and automatic weapons launched an assault on the Indian Parliament in New Dehli today… Among the victims are Minister of State Harin Pathak along with six policemen, two Parliament guards, and at least three staff members were killed. Sources say the gunmen shot their way into the building before detonating their bombs in various rooms… This just in, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee has been wounded and is in critical condition… Lal Krishna Advani, Minister of Home Affairs, has taken control of the government.”
-[FONT="] [/FONT]CNN, December 11th [1]
“Washington called for answers – Pakistan needed to crack down on the Kashmiri militants immediately. Coming just days after Osama bin Laden’s death, and in the wake of mass public unrest, Musharraf found himself friendless… He could have appealed to the hero of the Kashmiri fighters, Aziz Khan, but the Americans had forced Musharraf to sack him. With the Line of Control militarizing again and potential enemies on both sides, Musharraf turned to the only option that remains for most army strongmen – he sent in the troops, this time, against his own people.”
-[FONT="] [/FONT]The Other Side of Terror: Pakistan’s ISI and the Rise of al Qaeda
Pakistan was under martial law. It could not be specifically directed against the Kashmiri – this would be a recipe for certain disaster – so Musharraf essentially justified it as part of a national effort to prepare for war with India. Nevertheless, the opposition was angry and the fundamentalists were wary. Critically, Musharraf moved several hundred thousand soldiers from the Afghani frontier to Kashmir. Nuclear missiles on both sides were readied for action. The Indian navy loomed ominously near Pakistan.
Meanwhile, the domestic response provided the raw complement to the abstract, hypothetical war that could be. Anti-Muslim riots broke out in Gujarat and several other border states in January, as sweeping government anti-terror laws lead to the detention or relocation of “suspected terrorists,” and the disruption of their businesses. Muslim terrorists responded with grenade attacks, train bombings, and a variety of other attacks throughout January. By the close of the month, a process that many foreign reporters and human rights observers described as a “pogrom” coordinated between Hindu militants and local officials was in motion.
On January 10th, several NATO countries began a frantic effort to prevent the escalation of the standoff…
[1] Roughly based on an OTL event, with a slight alteration in the date.