Been Winning So Long, I've Lost It - The Long War TL

[Blochead]

PART V: 2001

“If economists were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion.”
-[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]George Bernard Shaw

“The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is never enough of anything to satisfy all those who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics.”
-[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]Thomas Sowell

---

“As the dotcom bubble collapse reverberates throughout the economy, it appears that John McCain is preparing a series of tax cuts to stimulate the economy… While McCain is not a believer in supply-side theory, it appears he will be cutting taxes not to raise revenue but for the traditional reasons of countercyclical fiscal policy... Most personal income tax cuts will be focused on the poor and middle class, with the exception of capital gains cuts which will primarily benefit the income of upper-middle and upper class Americans…”
-[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]Newsweek, March 2001

“The success of McCain’s tax legislation has instilled confidence in the new administration… New legislation circulating through the Congress includes a compromise corporate tax reform bill that would reduce loopholes and lower the overall rate… More ambitious is his promise to begin reforming Social Security… While traditionally the left has been strongly opposed to anything that hints of private accounts, the proposed creation of universal 401(k) accounts with matching government grants has found some appeal among progressive economists…”
-[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]New York Times, April 2001

“Just look at the list of targets and planes downed. This is not just an attack on the United States, or even the West. This is an attack upon globalization, on the notion of capitalism itself… An attack on modernity, because wealth and prosperity are its essence…”
- Weekly Standard, September 2001

 

[pieman3141]

Huh. So.. this begs the question: Which targets?

I'm not a complete expert on tax-cuts, but it sounds like McCain's policies are somewhat better. I'm unsure of what Bush's were back in the old days, though...

 

[Blochead]

Huh. So.. this begs the question: Which targets?

Still working it out, but I don't want to completely give it away yet. Next post, though. But I will tell you that the East Coast is a 4 plane operation, as is the West Coast. There are 2 planes in the East Asian operation. OTL targets will go, plus one of 93's rumored targets. The rest I'm saving until the post itself

I'm not a complete expert on tax-cuts, but it sounds like McCain's policies are somewhat better. I'm unsure of what Bush's were back in the old days, though...

McCain voted against the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts on the grounds that they were too focused on the incomes of the rich. However, as President he'll be pressured to make some tax cuts, which is why I had him give in on capital gains which attract less attention and can potentially apply to middle class investors as well. I threw in the corporate tax reform because it's something McCain's talked about and his reform, no-pork attitude would probably lend itself to a removal of loopholes in exchange for overall reductions.

The corporate tax reductions will probably have more of an effect on growth than the income tax changes, but the main difference between McCain's income tax changes and Bush's will be that income inequality will be lower in the long run than OTL.

 

[Blochead]

PART VI: September, 2001

“Right now, as you read this, somebody, somewhere, is planning a war.”
-David L. Smith, The Most Dangerous Animal

“Evil is unspectacular and always human, and shares our bed and eats at our own table.”
-W.H. Auden

“Perhaps our cooperation has something to do with our ferocity.”
-Robert Bigelow

---

8:48, and the handful of Massachusetts construction workers near Otis AFB have gotten their question answered: why two minutes ago, did a pair of fighter planes scream overhead, with weapons on their pylons?

8:48, and the images of 1 WTC are just beginning to sear themselves into America’s collective consciousness.

8:48, and Flight 175 is no longer under the pilots’ control. Flight 77 has about two minutes before the same. Flight 93 has a ways to go. Four more heading west, and thus nominally backwards in time, were about to meet this grave new reality, too.

The second plane to go actually came from half a world away, during a summer evening in the land of the rising sun. Unable to navigate to their “primary” targets of USAF and USN bases during the night and finding the pilots uncooperative, the United 747 intercontinental was directed towards a more easily recognizable target – Tokyo, where the flight was originally headed. They simply picked the tallest building they could locate and headed towards it. At 8:55, the Tokyo Metropolitan was, for reasons no other than convenience, the second victim of the attacks that day.

A Thai flight, the only non-American airline hijacked, was headed towards Manila. After a struggle with the crew, the plane disappeared somewhere into the ocean before 9PM EST, but without any radio contact since the hijacking, conspiracy theories would surround it for quite some time. It was only after interrogation some time later of planners that anyone could confirm it was part of the attack.

By 10PM, Americans knew this much – both World Trade Center towers, the Pentagon, the Library tower of Los Angeles, the Transamerica Pyramid, 555 California Street, and the Tokyo Metropolitan building had been hit. One plane had disappeared over the South China Sea, another, headed towards Naval Base San Diego, had been downed by an F/A-18 Hornet after news of the other West Coast attacks. The Capitol Building and the White House had been evacuated. McCain was airborne. At 10:14, Flight 93 hit the Capitol Building. The decision had been made to shoot it down, of course. But NORAD simply didn’t have the planes in the air soon enough.

“… The rumors about McCain being a fierce temper were entirely true. But after hearing after building after building after building go down… his mood changed. By the time the Capitol had been it, his mood was a cold, purposeful, but harsh resolve… and it had spread. Perhaps this is what the men in that POW camp were like, I wish I could say… He didn’t ever suggest pushing the red button and obliterate every capital of the Muslim world, like some would have you believe… ‘We’re under siege. They want us to cower in our own country, and flee our cities… We’re going to get them all. I do not care who we have to bomb. I do not care what greasy sleazebags these people hide behind we have to depose. I do not care what borders we must cross… Bastards thought they could win with this? Well, they forgot to kill everyone on this damned plane…’”
-Excerpted from an interview with an anonymous staffer onboard Air Force One that day, published in the New Yorker, September 2002.

“I looked out at these people celebrating in the city [of Peshawar’s] streets, and I wondered, where do these people think the bombs will fall tomorrow?”
-Unknown Pakistani from The Other Side of Terror: Pakistan’s ISI and the Rise of al Qaeda, interviewed c. 2004, published c. 2005

 

[Goldstein]

Very, very good. I like how this captures, reflects and amplifies the political spirit of our wicked decade. I'll keep an eye on this.

 

[Nekromans]

Oh, that is NOT good.

-Nekropher O'Mans, Minister for Understatements.

 

[Hendryk]

“… I am sorry about the thorough search, but you know the men who tried to kill me came as reporters too… I think God was trying to keep me here, really. For the struggle that was to come… September 9th. The attempt on my life made a few papers, but I think it would have made more if it was successful. I suppose a cynic could say that if I had died, the West would have noticed more. The ISI connection, al Qaeda’s involvement… I could have told them that, if they were listening.”

- Ahmad Shah Massoud, in an interview with Frontline, 2002

Glad to see that Massoud will make it--he was the one half-decent leader around in Afghanistan, and Al-Qaeda obviously knew it, even though his not being Pashtun has had people wondering whether he could have held the country together in the event of his ruling it.

Glad to see, as well, the mention of the ISI. I'm not one for revengewank, but I'd like to see Pakistan not get away as easily as in OTL with its support for the Taliban, not to mention its history of proliferating WND technology to rogue states.

 

[Blochead]

Very, very good. I like how this captures, reflects and amplifies the political spirit of our wicked decade. I'll keep an eye on this.

That is probably the best thing I could hope to do with this, so thank you.

Oh, that is NOT good.

-Nekropher O'Mans, Minister for Understatements.

No, not at all.

Glad to see that Massoud will make it--he was the one half-decent leader around in Afghanistan, and Al-Qaeda obviously knew it, even though his not being Pashtun has had people wondering whether he could have held the country together in the event of his ruling it.

Well, given what's going to happen in Pakistan, the Pashtuns are going to be a problem anyway... The rest of the country should be in better shape, though.

Glad to see, as well, the mention of the ISI. I'm not one for revengewank, but I'd like to see Pakistan not get away as easily as in OTL with its support for the Taliban, not to mention its history of proliferating WND technology to rogue states.

Yeah. I think what'll keep it from becoming too much of one is just the sort of mind-boggling difficulties that "getting back" at Pakistan would entail... Americans can talk tough about giving Pakistan "what for," but I think we would find, in practice, it would be very, very dangerous. I have seen no scenario about a "major" US invervention in Pakistan that did not involve military-breaking troop numbers and a war timeframe that would make Iraq look like Grenada.

 

[Nicomacheus]

Yeah. I think what'll keep it from becoming too much of one is just the sort of mind-boggling difficulties that "getting back" at Pakistan would entail... Americans can talk tough about giving Pakistan "what for," but I think we would find, in practice, it would be very, very dangerous. I have seen no scenario about a "major" US invervention in Pakistan that did not involve military-breaking troop numbers and a war timeframe that would make Iraq look like Grenada.

Well, US-India relations would take a far different tack, I'd imagine. I almost wonder if the US really wanted to invade (perish the thought) they might formally ally with India to make use of Indian manpower. I doubt it because that seems to be an instant recipe for Sub-Continental Nuclear War.

 

[Historico]

Keep it comming...

 

[Blochead]

Well, US-India relations would take a far different tack, I'd imagine. I almost wonder if the US really wanted to invade (perish the thought) they might formally ally with India to make use of Indian manpower. I doubt it because that seems to be an instant recipe for Sub-Continental Nuclear War.

I'm under the impression India would not really be happy about Pakistan getting badly destabilized enough so that it'd have to militarily intervene...

Keep it comming...

Yeah, bit of a pause, I was out of town for the weekend, new update coming soon.

 

[Blochead]

PART VII: September, 2001

“It is difficult to even try to remember moments during which nothing is considered, foreseen, or understood, where there is nothing… but an astonishingly empty head and a pair of eyes which translate nothing more than would the eyes of an animal facing mortal danger.”
-Guy Sajer

“This is the first occasion since World War II on which we can and should use the entire arsenal of our defense.”
-Victor Davis Hanson


---

“… casualty estimates are highly variable, but until further notice, all staff stating casualty figures shall corroborate this report until better data is available…
WTC: 2600+, ~90, ~60 on aircraft
Pentagon: 100+, ~60 on aircraft
Capitol: 130+, ~40 on aircraft
Library Tower: 500+, ~35+ on aircraft
Transamerica Pyramid: 300+, ~40 on aircraft
555 California Street: 400+, ~50 on aircraft
San Diego: ~60 on aircraft
Tokyo: ~700+, ~300+ on aircraft…”
-Memo circulating through CNN, ca. 9/12/01

2030, 9/11/2001

The National Guard is on the streets in San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York City, and Washington DC. There are no private or commercial flights. Every radio, every television seems to be tuned to the address the President is about to make, the first official public broadcast since the attacks.

Air Force One touched down with fighters buzzing around the city like vultures, and a military escort carried the President and essential staff into the heart of the city. It raced through deserted streets to the Capitol, so McCain could see firsthand what the day’s events had wrought. Then, it was on to the White House, under heavy guard with anti-aircraft batteries in place. There, he would speak to the country…

But the idea of government continuity was, at the time, mostly contrived. Congress was at Mount Weather, Virginia. The Vice President was at Raven Rock, Pennsylvania. Washington DC was a fortress. McCain’s speech could be summarized in three Rs: reflection, recovery, and retaliation. He made his case in a calm, resolute manner – as Americans would expect of their President. Only behind the scenes was the extent of the coming response apparent. The War Powers Act had already been invoked, and US military forces around the world were preparing for a massive strike on Afghanistan, the scale of which would almost certainly be expanded to invasion pending Congressional approval. It was only a matter of confirming this was al Qaeda’s doing, though there was little doubt by the evening this was the case.

Also unaware of what the United States would unleash, there were massive groundswells of support for the United States, especially in Europe, Latin America, and of course Japan. Indeed, from day one the United States and Japanese governments were coordinating a response – there were rumors Japan would alter or bypass its pacifist constitution to contribute to the war effort, something China worried of privately, but refused to mention publicly. The ANZUS and NATO treaties were pre-approved for activation, and needed only a target to set upon.

On September 18th, a week after the attacks, McCain addressed the emergency Joint Session of Congress at Mount Weather. the first time the location of Congress had been officially revealed. McCain requested a declaration of war – which, when implemented, would be the first levied against America’s enemies since that against Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania in 1942 – if the Taliban did not immediately hand over al Qaeda members and open itself to a virtual NATO occupation. They would have until September 25th to comply.

“Of course, even in moments such as these the United States government has to exercise diplomatic prudence. Afghanistan is a landlocked country, and we will not be able to strike against it without the assistance of its neighbors. American officials from the State and Defense Departments are now likely engaged, 24/7, in a diplomatic offensive to pave the way for an American intervention in Afghanistan… While many countries will be reluctant, especially Pakistan, which is the only major government that still recognizes the Taliban, it is unlikely any wish to be persuaded by other means…”
- Newsweek, September 19th, 2001

 

[Nicomacheus]

Wow...a chilling prospect. A quibble:

The War Powers Act had already been invoked

IIRC, every American President serving since the passage of the War Powers Act has declared in unconstitutional even while complying with its spirit (by informing Congress of his military actions). Not a big deal, but if McCain actually declares the Act Constitutional that's change.

On September 18th, a week after the attacks, McCain addressed the emergency Joint Session of Congress at Mount Weather. the first time the location of Congress had been officially revealed. McCain requested a declaration of war – which, when implemented, would be the first levied against America’s enemies since that against Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania in 1942 – if the Taliban did not immediately hand over al Qaeda members and open itself to a virtual NATO occupation. They would have until September 25th to comply.

Which renders mute any concerns about the War Powers Act. It would also be awesome...in a terrible, chilling sort of way. I'd imagine the NATO, SEATO, and ANZUS powers (along with other powers officially allied with the US) are going to activate the mutual attack clauses (as they did OTL)--is this what you mean by "pre-approved for activation"? Furthermore, will these allied powers also issue formal declarations of war?

I wonder if this concerted action might allow McCain to reform and consolidate NATO et al.

 

[Blochead]

IIRC, every American President serving since the passage of the War Powers Act has declared in unconstitutional even while complying with its spirit (by informing Congress of his military actions). Not a big deal, but if McCain actually declares the Act Constitutional that's change.

He doesn't declare it, but he invokes it secretly given the "incapacitated" state of Congress - it was intended to be used to respond to followup attacks before Congress reconvened and authorized force.

Which renders mute any concerns about the War Powers Act. It would also be awesome...in a terrible, chilling sort of way. I'd imagine the NATO, SEATO, and ANZUS powers (along with other powers officially allied with the US) are going to activate the mutual attack clauses (as they did OTL)--is this what you mean by "pre-approved for activation"?

They have stated their intent to activate the clause pending an official authorization of force or declaration of war by the US.

Furthermore, will these allied powers also issue formal declarations of war?

It is possible, but it may be redundant for some countries if the NATO activation automatically makes them "at war."

I wonder if this concerted action might allow McCain to reform and consolidate NATO et al.

McCain has always been into quasi-multilateral ideas like a "League of Democracies," so it is possible we could see some reforms of US-lead institutions or the creation of new ones.

 

[HJ Tulp]

Wow...a chilling prospect. A quibble:



IIRC, every American President serving since the passage of the War Powers Act has declared in unconstitutional even while complying with its spirit (by informing Congress of his military actions). Not a big deal, but if McCain actually declares the Act Constitutional that's change.



Which renders mute any concerns about the War Powers Act. It would also be awesome...in a terrible, chilling sort of way. I'd imagine the NATO, SEATO, and ANZUS powers (along with other powers officially allied with the US) are going to activate the mutual attack clauses (as they did OTL)--is this what you mean by "pre-approved for activation"? Furthermore, will these allied powers also issue formal declarations of war?

I wonder if this concerted action might allow McCain to reform and consolidate NATO et al.

The fact that there was another country hit will cement NATO for sure.

 

[Blochead]

The fact that there was another country hit will cement NATO for sure.

True, (although it was a non-NATO country). This makes it increasingly likely NATO will be expanded beyond "NA" or a new organization might be formed.

 

[Historico]

Definatley good, last segment Blochead, Im just try to picture our favorite lil john Mcain going touring the wreckage of DC, and the furious rhetoric he would use in his speech. Any Infamous one-liners that may come from it?

 

[maverick]

That was interesting...

Although I find the bits about Japan to be more interesting that the one's dealing about the United States...

I mean...this is the first time Japan has ever been attacked without provocation, unless you count Admiral Perry's arrival at Edo in 1853...how will this affect the mindset of the Japanese people? or that of their government? I guess that Article 9 is going to be a hugue problem now...even with someone as charismatic and entertaining as Koizumi in charge...

By the way, does this TL have two PoDs or have butterflies from Rove's dismisal have anything to do with the greater terror attack at 9-11?

 

[Blochead]

Definatley good, last segment Blochead, Im just try to picture our favorite lil john Mcain going touring the wreckage of DC, and the furious rhetoric he would use in his speech. Any Infamous one-liners that may come from it?

Eh, I want the words of OTL figures to have an accurate feel, and to be quite honest I'm more familiar with McCain's offhand remarks than his best moments in rhetoric. But I'm sure the TL will be peppered with them once I think of some.

That was interesting...

Although I find the bits about Japan to be more interesting that the one's dealing about the United States...

There's going to be another post coming up about NATO and Japan's response, don't worry.

I mean...this is the first time Japan has ever been attacked without provocation, unless you count Admiral Perry's arrival at Edo in 1853...how will this affect the mindset of the Japanese people? or that of their government? I guess that Article 9 is going to be a hugue problem now...even with someone as charismatic and entertaining as Koizumi in charge...

The LDP and DPJ have both, as far as I understand, leaned towards the position that Article 9 allows the JSDF to deploy for the upkeep of internal law and order, and would like a clause to clearly authorize the use of force for self-defense against external threats. This would almost certainly occur in TTL...

By the way, does this TL have two PoDs or have butterflies from Rove's dismisal have anything to do with the greater terror attack at 9-11?

Essentially two PODs. The 10-plane, multiple continent attack was phased out because of coordination concerns and OBL's micromanagement. You could say it's "butterflies" but I'd say two PODs are more accurate.

 

[Blochead]

PART VIII: September 2001

“Diplomacy: the art of restraining power.”
-Henry Kissinger

“Non-combatant, n. A dead Quaker.”
-Ambrose Bierce

---

“There cannot be justice without power to dispense it, and there is no virtue in refusing to bear that responsibility.”

This, from McCain’s Mount Weather address, had become almost cliché in the days following. This rhetoric appeared in McCain’s response to the Japanese amending of Article 9 on September 24th, and in the address the day after when airstrikes against Afghanistan began. What the exercising of that responsibility entailed, however, was far less eloquent and refined than the rhetoric McCain packaged it in.

There were no paeans to democracy, friendship, and universal values to those governments the US would need to persuade.

“Powell was the good cop and Richard Armitage was the bad cop. Powell would make the appeals to the governments in Central Asia willing to help us out. If there was any resistance or hesitation, McCain would send Armitage after them, who was the verbal equivalent of shock and awe. Decorum be damned, Richard Armitage made it pretty clear that if the State Department and the President didn’t start hearing nice things, your country was going to get cratered… The key to this approach was that it was directed against dictators, not whole countries. Everyone knew it was going on, but to let the people in these countries know this was our policy would be very problematic, to say the least. Eventually, it was.”
-Norman Pell [1], Present at the Destruction: A Memoir of My Service

“Japan is a nation hamstrung by its past – even as it amends Article 9 to allow for participation in the war against terrorism, diplomats in South Korea and China have expressed concerns about a Japan ‘unleashed.’ Though Japan does not use war as an instrument of foreign policy, it is self-restraint rather than incapacity that accounts for its pacifism. Since the 1998 test of North Korean missiles and the rise of China, Japan has faced regional security challenges in East Asia, and with 9/11 it is clear Japan cannot ignore the global challenges either. Sources with the US State Department indicate the LDP will push for an authorization not only to deploy troops to Afghanistan with NATO, but for other proposed efforts involving humanitarian and military aid and counterterrorist and counter-piracy naval operations…”
-Foreign Policy, September 23rd

Operation Overwhelming Resolve began on September 25th. After securing airbases in Afghanistan’s neighbors (save China and Iran), American submarine-launched missiles and strategic bombers began pounding Taliban military and government infrastructure.

“Al Qaeda is an organization without borders. The idea it could be engaged within them was doomed from the start, and if it did not die between Tora Bora and Parachinar it would have died somewhere else. On September 25th, the gears were already turning.”
-The Other Side of Terror: Pakistan’s ISI and the Rise of al Qaeda

[1] An entirely fictional character.