Battle of Actium ends in a decisive victory for Antony and Cleopatra and a catastrophic defeat for Octavian

[WanderingWanderer]

It's probably in Antony's interest -- just as it was in Octavian's -- to pretend that most of the senate was supporting him all along, especially with Agrippa and Octavian conveniently dead. I think you're right that Maecenas will meet an accident. The one other guy I think Antony would get rid of is Munatius Plancus, for ditching him in 32 and handing his will to Octavian. Isn't that the guy who supposedly also complained that Cleopatra was too powerful? I also wonder about the yunger Marcus Cicero: he wasn't really a threat, but I think he'd probably want to retire from public life.

The women are probably all right -- we don't see women being vulnerable to political murder until somewhat later, and they were not touched during either round of proscriptions in the Republic. Good idea to marry Julia off to one of Antony's sons, but I think it would be more likely to be the older than the younger, given Roman marriage patterns.



Yes, all of this. If you look at the senators who did choose to follow Antony up to Actium, they tend to be the older and more conservative/aristocratic ones. So he's clearly keeping up with Roman politics and looks respectable to the senate. Presumaby they felt that he was more likely to allow the return of republican politics. It is hard to see Antony returning permanently to Rome, though, given his behavior over the previous decade; maybe his goal was a strong alliance between Egypt and Rome, with his children by Cleopatra as proxies for that relationship. But it's really hard to say.

By this time, Antony's oldest son is not yet promised to anyone? He's what, 16, 17 already? The elder son could marry a bride from a patrician pro-Republic family, one of those that supported Antony even before Actium. This would be a good indicator to his allies that Antony wants to "restore the old traditions of the Republic" etc etc. Meanwhile, marrying his younger son to Julia is a move to reconcile with the pro-Octavian faction, I agree that likely Antony would have a general ammesty for the vast majority of senators and equites. Also good point about Plancus, that's another one on the kill list.

Does Antony have any daughters from his Roman marriage, I can't remember if he has a daughter with Octavia. Also, what happens to the marriage of Tiberius and Vipsania in this scenario, would it even go through, there's certainly no advantage for someone from the Claudian family to marry the daughter of an upstart who got himself killed at Actium.

 

[Bullmoose713]

The big question is would another strongman from Rome try to challenge Antony afterwards and would Antony want to march on Rome?

 

[not livius]

Does Antony have any daughters from his Roman marriage, I can't remember if he has a daughter with Octavia. Also, what happens to the marriage of Tiberius and Vipsania in this scenario, would it even go through, there's certainly no advantage for someone from the Claudian family to marry the daughter of an upstart who got himself killed at Actium.

Antony and Octavia had two daughters. IOTL the older married L. Domitius Ahenobarbus, and the younger married Livia's son Drusus. I don't know when these marriages were arranged, but the first one might stand. I think the marriage with Drusus might depend on how Livia managed the transition: she was married to Octavian, after all, and although her connections to the Livii and Claudii are important, I wonder whether people might choose to avoid looking like they're trying to ally with her.

On a personal level, returning to Rome might be awkward for Antony, since he'd have to deal with Octavia again, but this time he'd be coming back as the triumphant liberator of Rome from the tyrant Octavian, so he'd probably feel OK about it.

 

[not livius]

Antony's biggest immediate problem after defeating Octavian is what is he going to do with all the soldiers in both armies that need to be demobilized. IOTL Octavian used the wealth of Egypt he seized after conquering the country to pay off the 50,000 veterans he was demobilizing. Cleopatra though is presumably not going to be ok with Antony plundering her kingdom to pay off his troops (let alone Octavian's troops), so where is he going to get the money to pay off all those veterans that need to be demobilized?

Good point. Would enough of them be willing to join a big campaign against Parthia to make a difference? It might be another factor pushing Antony to make another try at that. I think otherwise his best option is to found a lot of colonies on territory in the Eastern Mediterranean: it's less politically damaging than doing that in Italy, and the colonists would be an extra source of support and troops for him over the longer term. He can confiscate land from kingdoms that were less enthusiastic in supporting him, or from provinces in the East. Or from Parthia, if he manages to conquer any of it.

 

[bguy]

Good point. Would enough of them be willing to join a big campaign against Parthia to make a difference? It might be another factor pushing Antony to make another try at that.

Possibly, though given how well Antony's last Parthian campaign went, I don't know if his soldiers will be satisfied with a promise of finally getting their bonuses after one more campaign.

Per Cassius Dio it appears Octavian solved this problem with some of his veterans that he retired after Actium in part by seizing land from the pro-Antony towns in Italy, giving that land to the veterans he needed to retire immediately, and promising to compensate the people whose land he took with the spoils from his upcoming conquest of Egypt, so maybe Antony could do something similar and seize land from pro-Octavian towns in Italy with a promise of compensating the displaced land owners with his future Parthian spoils.

I think otherwise his best option is to found a lot of colonies on territory in the Eastern Mediterranean: it's less politically damaging than doing that in Italy, and the colonists would be an extra source of support and troops for him over the longer term. He can confiscate land from kingdoms that were less enthusiastic in supporting him, or from provinces in the East. Or from Parthia, if he manages to conquer any of it.

Possible and land in the east is certainly more than fair to Octavian's veterans (who really can't expect land in Italy after picking the wrong side in the civil war). The potential problem with such a plan is that it is very likely the Parthians are invading the east. IOTL they invaded Roman occupied Armenia and Antony's ally Media Atropatene while Antony was fighting Octavian but didn't press on any further after Octavian won as he was able to come to an accord with them. ITTL though I would expect the Parthians to keep attacking. They are unlikely to want to come to easy terms with Antony (who has already tried to invade them once before and who was obviously preparing to invade them again when he got distracted by his war with Octavian), and even if the Parthians are willing to make peace, I don't know if Antony would be willing to give up his Armenian conquest (which is probably Parthia's minimum demand for peace), since conquering Armenia is his biggest achievement in the east.

If Antony is having to fight the Parthians then seizing land from the eastern client kings is rather risky as it means the support he gets from those kings against the Parthians might prove rather lacking (and that's if they don't straight up defect to the Parthians.) And Antony faces a similar problem with seizing land in the eastern provinces. Doing so risks unrest and possibly even revolts in those provinces right when the Parthians are invading.

 

[WanderingWanderer]

Antony and Octavia had two daughters. IOTL the older married L. Domitius Ahenobarbus, and the younger married Livia's son Drusus. I don't know when these marriages were arranged, but the first one might stand. I think the marriage with Drusus might depend on how Livia managed the transition: she was married to Octavian, after all, and although her connections to the Livii and Claudii are important, I wonder whether people might choose to avoid looking like they're trying to ally with her.

On a personal level, returning to Rome might be awkward for Antony, since he'd have to deal with Octavia again, but this time he'd be coming back as the triumphant liberator of Rome from the tyrant Octavian, so he'd probably feel OK about it.

Oh thank you for reminding me that Antony via his daughter is an ancestor of Nero! Then again, wasn't Agrippa also an ancestor of Nero? So the younger one was OTL married to Drusus (also an ancestor of Nero!), I do wonder if that will still happen in this scenario. Livia will definitely need to remarry if she wants a future for her sons, I'm sure there's a number of Claudian cousins who may be interested, especially if Antony indicates he won't hold any grudges against Livia. Tiberius will likely marry to a patrician bride from a respectable upper crust family, same with Drusus.

Ah Octavia...I wonder; all our sources say Antony divorced her (thanks to the influence of the eeeeeevil Queen of Egypt) but was this true? Is it another instance of Augustan propaganda that is so prevalent we now accept it as the gospel truth? Could be that Antony still considers himself married to Octavia under Roman law, hence Octavia may end up taking care of Antony's kids (which she also had to do OTL) while ol' Marcus Antonious continues his campaign back East with his....ally, Cleopatra, who is totally not his wife, at least not under Roman law.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

I mean wouldn't Roman law be what they wanted it to be if they could take it over?

It's not the law itself that's the problem, it's the social attitudes which the war represents. Romans of the period were very xenophobic, and there's no way they'd accept being ruled by a half-Greek raised in an Oriental palace.

 

[Alkmaion]

What if during the Battle of Actium, the forces of Marcus Antonius and Cleopatra had defeated the forces of Octavian decisively at sea and it was so catastrophic that it resulted in the deaths of both Octavian and Agrippa. What happens afterwards? Do Antony and Cleopatra regroup and reorganize before trying to then march on Rome? What does the Senate do? Could a Roman-Hellenistic Empire have been formed?

If they defeated them decisively, Marc Anthony would definitely go to Rome. There was too much danger that anyone could step into the ring. Lepidus or anyone from Drusilla´s family for example. And surely he would take Julia, Augustus´ daughter, to marry her to one of his sons.

 

[wcv215]

What if during the Battle of Actium, the forces of Marcus Antonius and Cleopatra had defeated the forces of Octavian decisively at sea and it was so catastrophic that it resulted in the deaths of both Octavian and Agrippa. What happens afterwards? Do Antony and Cleopatra regroup and reorganize before trying to then march on Rome? What does the Senate do? Could a Roman-Hellenistic Empire have been formed?

Uh…how? Octavian and Agrippa had Antony in a position where he could not win. His army and fleet were trapped and outmatched completely. He stood no chance and he knew it. That’s why he had to run. If Actium is happening then it means Antony has ALREADY lost.

 

[Bullmoose713]

Uh…how? Octavian and Agrippa had Antony in a position where he could not win. His army and fleet were trapped and outmatched completely. He stood no chance and he knew it. That’s why he had to run. If Actium is happening then it means Antony has ALREADY lost.

I mean is it not feasible to say during an alternate battle the two most important leaders find themselves dead by any numbers of factors and causes, and this results in the routing or destruction of their fleet?

 

[WanderingWanderer]

Uh…how? Octavian and Agrippa had Antony in a position where he could not win. His army and fleet were trapped and outmatched completely. He stood no chance and he knew it. That’s why he had to run. If Actium is happening then it means Antony has ALREADY lost.

Freak storm during the night results in most of Octavian's fleet to sink, including the ship carrying Agrippa. Next day, Octavian loses this alternate Battle of Actium and is executed by order of Antony and the eeeeevil Queen of Egypt. That's the one way I can see this scenario happening

 

[not livius]

Ah Octavia...I wonder; all our sources say Antony divorced her (thanks to the influence of the eeeeeevil Queen of Egypt) but was this true? Is it another instance of Augustan propaganda that is so prevalent we now accept it as the gospel truth? Could be that Antony still considers himself married to Octavia under Roman law, hence Octavia may end up taking care of Antony's kids (which she also had to do OTL) while ol' Marcus Antonious continues his campaign back East with his....ally, Cleopatra, who is totally not his wife, at least not under Roman law.

Isn't that more or less what Caesar did with Cleopatra and Calpurnia? Although things did not work out so well for him in the long run, so perhaps it's an example best avoided. I think Octavia was very public about her loyalty to Antony, despite his affair with Cleopatra, but you do have a point about the kids -- if they were divorced he had the option of taking both Antonias to live with him, and that would have been a perfectly normal thing. Maybe he did consider them still married, or married enough to be convenient politically.

I can't really imagine Cleopatra being willing to go along with this, never mind Octavia, but who knows? If Antony did come back victorious after Actium, she would be much better off as the wife of the victor than as the sister of the vanquished would-be tyrant.

Uh…how? Octavian and Agrippa had Antony in a position where he could not win. His army and fleet were trapped and outmatched completely. He stood no chance and he knew it. That’s why he had to run. If Actium is happening then it means Antony has ALREADY lost.

Fair point. Octavian gets hit by lightning, Agrippa has an aneurism, and for some strange reason their subordinates just panic instead of seizing the opportunity and taking advantage of a winning setup. Meanwhile Antony and Cleopatra have ignored their terrible situation and decided to stay in place to defend Antony's trapped and basically undefendable legions.

 

[Alkmaion]

On a personal level, returning to Rome might be awkward for Antony, since he'd have to deal with Octavia again, but this time he'd be coming back as the triumphant liberator of Rome from the tyrant Octavian, so he'd probably feel OK about it.

Why should that be akward? Roman women were allowed to divorce and this was not something unusual.

 

[Alkmaion]

In general, the Roman Republic was on the cusp of change and couldn´t go on forth like nothing had happened. So MA has to go to Rome and settle things as because if he didn´t, then someone new would try to take power. And if he was there he could set the terms for that. As for the structure of the republic, in OTL Augustus produced the system of imperial and senatorial provinces, what if MA did something similar, but the division is also cemented by the founding of a new, second capital in the East...Antoniopolis!

 

[SlyDessertFox]

Problem here is that most if not all what we know of Antony and Cleo is all from Augustan propaganda. Can we really believe he wants to elevate Caesarion as some sort of "Egyptian-Roman king"? S

Seems more likely to me that Egypt was the fulcrum of Antony's system of client reorganization of the east. And what better way to ensure the loyalty of the head client kingdom than to have that client kingdom be ruled by a half Roman son of Julius Caesar? In theory, at least, this tidies a lot of things up-if Egypt can sort of act like Rome's diplomatic enforcer in the east, it simplifies a lot of issues with their haphazard conquest. Of course, this entire reorganization unraveled almost immediately for a variety of reasons (Turns out killing the pro-Roman king of Armenia, allowing him to be replaced by his pro-Parthian son, is not the best idea for maintaining control there).

Assuming, somehow, Antony suddenly becomes a competent admiral

FWIW, Antony's strategy at Actium, assuming Cleopatra's fleet had actually participated, was quite sound. He didn't need to defeat the Roman fleet completely so much as he needed to buy time to extract it from the blockade. Had the Roman army followed his orders and ditched Actium and the battle played out as planned, his fleet probably escapes and he can pull away from Actium and survive another day.

 

[not livius]

Why should that be akward? Roman women were allowed to divorce and this was not something unusual.

Because Octavian has spent the last few years parading her around Rome as the model of mistreated Roman matronhood? I can't think of another divorced Roman matron who was (or was presented as being) so fixated on her former hisband, although granted we don't have a lot of information on the subject of divorced Roman women's attitudes twoard their ex-husbands.

 

[Alkmaion]

What do a divorced ex-wife feelings matter? Please don´t apply modern standards here. And, as you mentioned yourself, you got the well orchestrated PR of 44 years of Augustus fed to you. Here, ITL this doesn´t happen. MA will come to Rome, for one to get Julia into his hands, and if he is civil aeound Octavian´s sister it will show that he is not too resentful

 

[WanderingWanderer]

FWIW, Antony's strategy at Actium, assuming Cleopatra's fleet had actually participated, was quite sound. He didn't need to defeat the Roman fleet completely so much as he needed to buy time to extract it from the blockade. Had the Roman army followed his orders and ditched Actium and the battle played out as planned, his fleet probably escapes and he can pull away from Actium and survive another day.

But the scenario calls for more than a strategy that was "quite sound". Under this scenario, Antony need to win absolutely and smash the rival fleet, killing Octavian AND Agrippa. Its not just about breaking the blockade. So you do need something drastic to change ITL, which includes ol' Antony being a far better commander and planner, certainly needs to be a far better admiral than Agrippa post-Naulochus. Otherwise, my scenario of a freak storm wreaking hacov on Ocatavian's fleet is the more plausible scenario.

Also, "had the Roman army followed his orders"? We're blaming the legions now for Antony's defeat? Is it not the responsibility of military commanders to ensure their soldiers follow them? Though again, all of our sources on this is from Augustan propaganda. Its all designed to show Antonius abandoning his Roman allies and legions while following Cleopatra like a lovesick dog. In OTL, as already pointed out, Actium is a big anti-climax, it didn't really matter, by the time the battle happened Antony's chances of a victory and return to Rome was basically zero. You need a POD before Actium for a more plausible victory scenario, like waaaaaay before (eg. Agrippa defeated by Sextus Pompey, or Octavian suddenly falls ill and dies before news of Antony's total disaster of a Parthian campaign reaches Rome, etc).

 

[SlyDessertFox]

Also, "had the Roman army followed his orders"? We're blaming the legions now for Antony's defeat? Is it not the responsibility of military commanders to ensure their soldiers follow them?

There's a lot to blame Antony for in the Actium campaign, but he was fighting the naval battle, he couldn't lead his army simultaneously. The idea was for the army to decamp at the same time as the naval breakout was happening, for whatever reason (perhaps they sensed Antony was doomed) the commanders just decided not to do that and then struck a deal with Octavian in the ensuing days.

 

[Bullmoose713]

How does history change with an empire led by Antony and Cleopatra?