Axis Turkey...butterflies?

[elkarlo]

Ok, we have gone over the possibility of an Axis Turkey many times here. I love this site, but often times, posters end up getting fixated on small and really mundane parts.

Anyhow, what I would like to discuss is; If Turkey joins the Axis sometime in late 40 til around June 41. Let us settle on April 41, with German feelers getting turkey on board for the Balkans campaign.

Would the Anglo-Soviet invasion of Persia still happen? The SA had huge amounts of reserves, and was able to commit 3 armies to invading Iran. With a front opened up against Turkey, would the SA have the able reserves and materials to participate in an invasion?

Would there be more Muslim Soviet deserters? Perhaps a bit more Chechnyas would have been able to join the Axis via Turkey? Would that have any lasting affects on the EF? By that, I mean more Muslims fighting for the Axis.

The ME front. I know that the logistics and infrastructure didn't lend it's self to fighting all that well there. Still, The Turkish army could have made some slow progress in Northern Syria, and Iraq.
With a Muslim power so close, and possibly invading, would there have been another revolt in Palestine? It would have been very easy to equip this revolt. Same for Iraq.

The Caucus front. Now, I understand that the Turks would be fighting through some easily defended territory. Still in WWI the Ottomans tied up some 600-700K Russian troops. The caucasus front would also, even with a toppled Iran, make Lend Lease through the Caucasus very problematic. Would add miles and strain to the Soviet supply line further East.
Axis air units could be stationed in Turkey, and interdict Cyprus, making for a lower grade Malta like situation there.

Also, Axis air power from Turkey could possibly hit the Soviet oil fields?
In 42, would the Turkish forces be able to break out, and seize most of the Caucasus area? Would this stop OTL Stalingrad from occurring?

Turkey would add a decent amount of troop strength, and some moderity trained pilots. Plus some light to medium industries.

The take away, Turkey would need German planes and AT guns. or they would be under equipped. Plus, like the Med front, they would need planes and some German units to help them out, further draining German resources.

I don't think Turkey would make WWII winnable for the Axis, but it would make it a much closer run thing

 

[katchen]

If the Russians move into Iranian Azerbaijan, they can set up a defensive line along the high mountains west of Mahadabad, between Lake Urmia and Lake Van. That's why the Russians went into Iranian Azerbaijan IOTL.
And there are bottlenecks all through the Kura and Araks valleys in Georgia. (If you want to get a feel for what it would be like to fight a WWII style war in the area--enjoyably---read S.M. Stirling's first Draka book "Marching Through Georgia"). The Turks won't find it easy to get to Baku They'll get bogged down.
And the Russians won't waste time trying to fight their way over the mountains of Eastern Turkey around Erzurum and Erzincan. They'll move south through Iran to Kermanshah and Abadan to protect their supply lines to the Persian Gulf, then swing west through Iraq, Palestine and Syria and make it onto the Anatolian Plateau somewhere around Kayseri or Tunceli.
And in the meantime, feverishly build a rail link between Krasnovdsk and Gurgan, then widen the gauge of the Iranian raiway from Gurgan to Tabriz and the USSR border and to Abadan. Unlike IOTL, if the USSR is going to have to do all this fighting in Southwest Asia, the USSR will be moving into Southwest Asia to stay, just as in Eastern Europe.

 

[Will Kürlich Kerl]

If the Russians move into Iranian Azerbaijan, they can set up a defensive line along the high mountains west of Mahadabad, between Lake Urmia and Lake Van. That's why the Russians went into Iranian Azerbaijan IOTL.
And there are bottlenecks all through the Kura and Araks valleys in Georgia. (If you want to get a feel for what it would be like to fight a WWII style war in the area--enjoyably---read S.M. Stirling's first Draka book "Marching Through Georgia"). The Turks won't find it easy to get to Baku They'll get bogged down.
And the Russians won't waste time trying to fight their way over the mountains of Eastern Turkey around Erzurum and Erzincan. They'll move south through Iran to Kermanshah and Abadan to protect their supply lines to the Persian Gulf, then swing west through Iraq, Palestine and Syria and make it onto the Anatolian Plateau somewhere around Kayseri or Tunceli.
And in the meantime, feverishly build a rail link between Krasnovdsk and Gurgan, then widen the gauge of the Iranian raiway from Gurgan to Tabriz and the USSR border and to Abadan. Unlike IOTL, if the USSR is going to have to do all this fighting in Southwest Asia, the USSR will be moving into Southwest Asia to stay, just as in Eastern Europe.

And if all this happen, the Soviets might be able to get the communists in Turkey to succeed in the later 1940s. A communist Turkey means that the Soviets now get a warm water port (which might still happen even without a communist Turkey, since the USSR will be entrenched in the Middle East by the end of World War 2). It is also possible that Greece and alt-Israel also falls to the communists, being surrounded by other communist countries.

Middle Eastern politics is dramatically changed as opposed to OTL.

 

[elkarlo]

Axis Turkey most likely means Communist Turkey when the war ends.

These types of posts don't help the thread at all. Please either edit this, or don't post here.

 

[elkarlo]

If the Russians move into Iranian Azerbaijan, they can set up a defensive line along the high mountains west of Mahadabad, between Lake Urmia and Lake Van. That's why the Russians went into Iranian Azerbaijan IOTL.
And there are bottlenecks all through the Kura and Araks valleys in Georgia. (If you want to get a feel for what it would be like to fight a WWII style war in the area--enjoyably---read S.M. Stirling's first Draka book "Marching Through Georgia"). The Turks won't find it easy to get to Baku They'll get bogged down.
And the Russians won't waste time trying to fight their way over the mountains of Eastern Turkey around Erzurum and Erzincan. They'll move south through Iran to Kermanshah and Abadan to protect their supply lines to the Persian Gulf, then swing west through Iraq, Palestine and Syria and make it onto the Anatolian Plateau somewhere around Kayseri or Tunceli.
And in the meantime, feverishly build a rail link between Krasnovdsk and Gurgan, then widen the gauge of the Iranian raiway from Gurgan to Tabriz and the USSR border and to Abadan. Unlike IOTL, if the USSR is going to have to do all this fighting in Southwest Asia, the USSR will be moving into Southwest Asia to stay, just as in Eastern Europe.

What resources would the Soviets put into this front? I do not know what divs were deployed there in 41.

Do you see Soviet divis fighting in Iraq? Would that mean, that they would invade Iran, even with a new front with Turkey? I am not sure that the USSR could sustain all that.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

These types of posts don't help the thread at all. Please either edit this, or don't post here.

???? What did you find unhelpful about his post? It seemed to me to be a reasonable extrapolation. Not necessarily accurate, but reasonable.

 

[elkarlo]

???? What did you find unhelpful about his post? It seemed to me to be a reasonable extrapolation. Not necessarily accurate, but reasonable.

I can to a similar conclusion. Getting to the conclusion immediately isn't interesting. Seeing how the allies react to this threat is

 

[lycan]

The Soviets had expressed interest in occupying Turkey, Iran, and Iraq as part of their attempt to join the Axis. Presumably they would do this if it looked like these countries would be used as bases for air strikes.