Austrian Diplomacy 1790-1792

[Vanity 6]

This period of uneasy geopolitical lull is intriguing me lately. The #2 power has been thrown into disarray and the others are scrambling around for advantage and/or wringing their hands about the contagion spreading.

Austria is in great turmoil. With a quagmire in the Balkans, Flanders and Hungary up in arms and Prussia on the make, the new emperor, Leopold sought to cut losses and shore things up.

The Ottoman war was written off and Hungary was appeased. Prussia was cut off at the knees via an alliance with the Maritime Powers—which entailed subduing Brussels.

These moves are generally regarded as brilliant. But were they? I understand Kaunitz, the architect of the long-standing French alliance was still Chancellor at this time but that his influence was curtailed.

What if the French alliance was continued? Would fobbing off Brussels precipitate a European war? Would the promise of ceding at a later date be enough to engage France? Would this alliance achieve any of the following:

A better outcome in the Balkans? Retaining Serbia at least?

Moderating the revolution in France? Instituting a center right constitutional monarchy instead of a radical republic?

Stymying Prussia and avoiding the Second and Third Partitions of Poland and maintaining an albeit Russian dominated but distinct Polish state?

Thoughts appreciated.

 

[Canuck Wingnut]

Maintaining an alliance with a revolutionary France would be difficult for Austria simply for internal political reasons- fear of revolutionary contagion and Imperial family ties to the deposed French royals not the least.

That said, if Austria maintained their alliance with France and France managed to demonstrate some of her OTL ability to raise and lead armies then a reliable alliance (if a reliable alliance could be maintained- France went through her own upheavals in this period, and although a stable alliance with Austria would help to lessen some of the panic and paranoia other factors also drove radicalization on the revolutionaries part, and affecting the internal politics of your allies is always a risky business) would help to ensure that Austria can withstand a war with any of their external threats, which in turn would certainly help them force the Ottomans to give up ground and influence in the Balkans.

 

[Vanity 6]

Indeed, a French alliance is a tricky proposition that can go sideways rather quickly and it would take a great deal of cynicism to pull it off. Yes, one would have to withdraw support for one’s cousins aspirations for counter revolution. But then again one may save their heads. And perhaps 20 years of upheaval could be avoided. Who knows?

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

But then again one may save their heads.

or it could see their heads chopped off earlier. All of the atrocities (and I do think there's no other word for it) happened in 1793, after Leopold II's death (March 1792), the Flight to Varennes (June 1792), the August Massacres (August 1792), Louis XVI's death (January 1793).

None of Leopold II's foreign policies affected those. France declared war on Austria in April 1792 (not the other way around). France dissolved the king's guard in May 1792. The Flight to Varennes was in June (there'd been an earlier attempt to go to Saint-Cloud at Easter, and while the consent had been given, but the mob had stopped the king from leaving. The king had wanted to go to Saint-Cloud because he wanted to receive communion from a priest who hadn't sworn the oath to the new government - this can be connected to the French government's anti-clerical agenda in April 1792). 19 June 1792 the Legislative Assembly suspends the king's right to veto (and made him a figurehead at the LA's mercy).

AIUI, Leopold's stance/foreign policy was pretty much the only thing keeping the French at bay.

And perhaps 20 years of upheaval could be avoided. Who knows?

The problem with this idea is that Leopold II isn't the only sovereign in Europe against the French. What reason would he have for agreeing with them about the Austrian Netherlands (where they've just chased his sister - Christine - and his son - Karl of Teschen, who's Christine's "heir" - out)? What help can France give him in the Balkans?

If Leopold does side with the French, he runs the risk of likewise being a pariah of Europe. The guy who sacrificed his own sisters (Antoinette, Christine) to help a "pack of madmen". The idea that everyone else in Europe is going to suddenly leave Leopold II in peace that he can concentrate on the Balkans is a naive fantasy. It won't stymy the rise of Prussia, If anything, Leopold siding with France will be denounced as "unGerman", potentially treasonous. They might try to get legislation passed that he's gone round the bend - which I doubt, when deposition seems easier - or you could even end up with the Habsburgs losing to Prussia (or anyone really) even earlier than OTL. @Vitruvius

Not only that but the events in France's Revolution are driven by the French. Were they reacting to outside influence? Yes. But the aristocrats had been fleeing since 1789, and Austria wasn't the first choice of most of their exiles (that was Britain, the Netherlands, the Rhineland, Savoy).

As for Poland, I'll let @Jan Olbracht @marcinL @Zygmunt Stary @alexmilman elaborate, since I don't know enough about the region/period

 

[Vanity 6]

Hard to do worse than the OTL War of the First Coalition though. Austria, deeply mistrusted in France, exacerbated the situation with its encircling alliance with the Maritime Powers, meetings with Prussia and ill fated diplomatic circulars and declarations. Wouldn’t a better policy to have been one of engagement while trying to support the more conservative elements within France? Wasn’t that the ostensible objective of the Declaration of Pillnitz?

In the East, is anyone going to go to war to make sure the Turks hang onto Serbia? Frederick William II was nothing but a vacillating sabre rattler.

 

[GenghisKhanfan]

This period of uneasy geopolitical lull is intriguing me lately. The #2 power has been thrown into disarray and the others are scrambling around for advantage and/or wringing their hands about the contagion spreading.

Austria is in great turmoil. With a quagmire in the Balkans, Flanders and Hungary up in arms and Prussia on the make, the new emperor, Leopold sought to cut losses and shore things up.

The Ottoman war was written off and Hungary was appeased. Prussia was cut off at the knees via an alliance with the Maritime Powers—which entailed subduing Brussels.

These moves are generally regarded as brilliant. But were they? I understand Kaunitz, the architect of the long-standing French alliance was still Chancellor at this time but that his influence was curtailed.

What if the French alliance was continued? Would fobbing off Brussels precipitate a European war? Would the promise of ceding at a later date be enough to engage France? Would this alliance achieve any of the following:

A better outcome in the Balkans? Retaining Serbia at least?

Moderating the revolution in France? Instituting a center right constitutional monarchy instead of a radical republic?

Stymying Prussia and avoiding the Second and Third Partitions of Poland and maintaining an albeit Russian dominated but distinct Polish state?

Thoughts appreciated.

At the point in which Emperor Leopold II assumes the throne of the HRE, Prussia under Frederick William III had already achieved one success-albeit with British connivance-in suppressing the 'Patriot' Revolt in the Dutch Republic and rescuing Queen Wilhelmina, so in all likelihood, Britain wouldn't have interefered if Prussia had taken up arms against the Hapsburg Monarchy for a final showdown. Frederick William III was already fomenting insurrection in Hungary with an eye toward detaching it from the Hapsburgs and possibly even putting a Hohenzollern on the Hungarian throne. Add to that the activities of Prussian agents in the Belgian Estates ruled by the Hapsburgs (which played as large a role in the Belgian Revolt as the almost parallel events happening in France at this same moment), and it could easily have been the end for the Hapsburgs as a dominant dynasty in the HRE. What other potential territorial changes could've been made had Prussia pursued its war of extermination against the Hapsburgs is unclear...maybe a puppet Bohemia subject to Berlin instead of Vienna? A Hohenzollern Holy Roman Emperor which could push through the measures that would eventually lead to a unitary Empire or perhaps even an early Imperial Germany? Who knows.

Even if Prussia had been successful in fomenting the eventual uprising in Belgium and Austria, now facing the full might of Prussian arms, was unable to suppress the uprising, I highly doubt they could remain united for long as the Walloons, who speak French, would start to push for integration into France. Flanders could either fall under Dutch or British influence shortly thereafter as a means of curbing further French ambitions as even while undergoing a revolution France would still seek any opportunity for expansion. Only possible way Austria could gain any advantage would be to simply hand all of Belgium over to France, but even this would be no guarantee as Britain and the Dutch Republic would oppose any French advance toward the Rhine Delta.

France had grown so disillusioned with the Austrian alliance (it was one of the factors that led to the French Revolution), that even if Austria handed Belgium over to France as a sweetener for a renewed alliance, the French people would reject it and it would only lead to a more rapid devolution into the Reign of Terror. The Royal Family would likely be deposed and executed sooner and all while France faced a coalition of Britain, the Dutch Republic and potentially Spain as well. The loss of even a small amount of manpower from the Hapsburg military forces would also hurt their chances of retaining Bohemia, Hungary and possibly Austria itself in the face of the Prussian juggernaut. I would even wager that such a titanic conflict between the two largest German powers would eventually drag in the mid-rank states and Imperial Knights and cripple Germany even worse than the Thirty Years War did, paving the way for a quicker French advance which might only possibly be stopped by an equally rapid Russian advance-and this is before we even introduce Napoleon.

For a brief period, Frederick William III entertained the idea of an alliance with Poland-Lithuania against Austria, with the possibility that the Commonwealth could gain some of the Austrian pieces previously partitioned from them back. It was only because of the fear of Russia that the Prussian king held back from exploring that idea. Assuming after his police action in the Dutch Republic that Frederick William III is feeling more brave, he could push toward that alliance, even if it meant offending Russia (though this could be lessened by a threeway agreement between the Commonwealth, Prussia and Russia which persuaded the Commonwealth to renounce any claims on the lands partitioned from them by the aforenamed states in exchange for a guarantee of the remaining Polish territory and Russian endorsement of the Prusso-Polish alliance) As much as Russia might be wary of a Poland-Lithuania allied to Prussia, the chance to get one over on the Hapsburgs in the Balkans would likely not be passed up by either Catherine II or Paul I as it would mean one less obstacle to the 'Great Dream' of restoring Byzantium at the expense of the Ottoman Turks. PLUS, having two buffers in the west would secure Russia from any French machinations......unless whatever new government regime takes power in Paris is able to convince the Prussians of the need for a French alliance, in which case even Rump Poland might not be a big enough buffer for Russia.

I know I rambled on quite a bit, but I wanted to try to answer as many of the questions posed as I could, even if in trying to do so, I raised even more questions.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Frederick William III was already fomenting insurrection in Hungary with an eye toward detaching it from the Hapsburgs and possibly even putting a Hohenzollern on the Hungarian throne.

AIUI the plan was for Karl August of Weimar (he who married Maria Pavlovna) not a Hohenzollern. Not sure why Weimar was chosen over a Hohenzollern, though

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

if Prussia had taken up arms against the Hapsburg Monarchy for a final showdown.

Prussia is stomped flat. The Prussian Army at this point is in the absolute doldrums of the "glorious past" myth, whereas the Austrian Army has been angrily innovating and improving since the final defeat in Silesia.

As much as Russia might be wary of a Poland-Lithuania allied to Prussia, the chance to get one over on the Hapsburgs in the Balkans would likely not be passed up by either Catherine II or Paul I as it would mean one less obstacle to the 'Great Dream' of restoring Byzantium at the expense of the Ottoman Turks.

1) Russia has no desire to allow Prussia to empower its client state
2) Russia and Austria are allies in the Balkans at this point