Austria intervens in the Franco-Prussian War

[Eurofed]

IMHO the way Bavaria, Austria and Bohemia are subsumed into the empire will not have a great impact on the future: even if all three states become Reichslands, it is likely to be a temporary solution, which is not going to last more than a generation.

Indeed. But as I said, I have no serious objections about these three states being annexed as Reichslands for a generation at most. Moreover, if the Old Catholic schism happens, their upgrade to member states with full rights is going to take much less than that.

 

[Eurofed]

At this point the Prussians were solidly above the other Germans but would not annex Austria even if they asked (they didnt) as it would mean either letting lose the Balkans or annexing it all and destabilizing the lands. (...) Besides losing their ally.

The scenario we are discussing forces the hand of OvB and Prussia about forming Grossdeutchsland, and hence bypasses the main stumbling block for this kind of union, their reluctance to admit vast numbers of Catholics in the German Empire.

In comparison, the geopolitical issues you quote are much less relevant: a Greater Germany-Italy-Hungary Triple Alliance is just as powerful as the OTL version (the assets of the Habsburg Empire just got redistributed among the new partners), but much more stable, since the instability created by Austro-Italian antagonism is gone, and the interests of the three partners are pretty much wholly complementary.

The ex-Habsburg Balkans would not be "let loose", since Germany and Italy have a vested interest in letting Hungary emerge from the Habsburg collapse in control of its traditional lands.

The settlement of the Ottoman Balkans is a different issue: the insurrection of the Balkan nationalities and the Russo-Turkish War indeed loom in the near future, but in all lielihood they can and shall be settled in a way broadly similar to OTL. Bosnia may either be annexed by Hungary or set up as an independent state.

 

[LordKalvan]

The scenario we are discussing forces the hand of OvB and Prussia about forming Grossdeutchsland, and hence bypasses the main stumbling block for this kind of union, their reluctance to admit vast numbers of Catholics in the German Empire.

In comparison, the geopolitical issues you quote are much less relevant: a Greater Germany-Italy-Hungary Triple Alliance is just as powerful as the OTL version (the assets of the Habsburg Empire just got redistributed among the new partners), but much more stable, since the instability created by Austro-Italian antagonism is gone, and the interests of the three partners are pretty much wholly complementary.

The ex-Habsburg Balkans would not be "let loose", since Germany and Italy have a vested interest in letting Hungary emerge from the Habsburg collapse in control of its traditional lands.

The settlement of the Ottoman Balkans is a different issue: the insurrection of the Balkan nationalities and the Russo-Turkish War indeed loom in the near future, but in all lielihood they can and shall be settled in a way broadly similar to OTL. Bosnia may either be annexed by Hungary or set up as an independent state.

Allow me a couple of nitpicks:

• OvB is forced to partition the Austrian empire (something which really goes against his Junker grain), but he'll do anything to mitigate (if avoidance is impossible) the impact of a much larger Catholic population in the German empire
• Hungary has already enough headaches with the Slavs in the Great Hungary which comes out of the Austrian partition. I do feel they would not be the best choice to keep the lid on the Balkan kettle.
• I also believe that any Balkan solution patterned on OTL is not a good one, and opens the door to long-term instability and internecine wars. Neither Italy nor Germany have any vital interest in an area which has limited economic value (possibly with the exception of the Ploesti fields and the Danube). However they certainly want to penetrate the Ottoman markets and keep the Russians out of the region (unsurprisingly these are also British aims). I agree that there will be a Balkan crisis (or more than one) in the 1870s; Italy and Germany should cope with it by limited peacekeeping interventions and by propping up the Ottomans against the Russians, at the same time promoting reforms in the OE.

 

[Super Parker Brothers]

Who fills out the alliance then? Bulgaria for southern Macedonia? Romania for Bukovina? Russia for Galicia? Dobruja all around?

 

[Eurofed]

Who fills out the alliance then? Bulgaria for southern Macedonia? Romania for Bukovina? Russia for Galicia? Dobruja all around?

I really don't get your point here.

 

[Super Parker Brothers]

I really don't get your point here.

Who joins who in the alliance? Bulgaria was previously seen as basically a Russian puppet while Romania was in an alliance with Germany and Austria in OTL. They each went different ways. Are they in an alliance here?

 

[Eurofed]

OvB is forced to partition the Austrian empire (something which really goes against his Junker grain), but he'll do anything to mitigate (if avoidance is impossible) the impact of a much larger Catholic population in the German empire.

Granted, we already agreed that the Reichsland solution is a feasible one if need be.

Hungary has already enough headaches with the Slavs in the Great Hungary which comes out of the Austrian partition. I do feel they would not be the best choice to keep the lid on the Balkan kettle.

Granted, if Hungary would be tasked to keep order in the Balkans alone, but this is something that would be the shared responsibility of the Triple Alliance. At most, Hungary would only be directly required to annex Bosnia, which at worst has null effects on its domestic situation (the Slavic minorities quotient is increased, but union with Bosnia makes the Croats signifcantly happier with Hungary).

I also believe that any Balkan solution patterned on OTL is not a good one, and opens the door to long-term instability and internecine wars. Neither Italy nor Germany have any vital interest in an area which has limited economic value (possibly with the exception of the Ploesti fields and the Danube). However they certainly want to penetrate the Ottoman markets and keep the Russians out of the region (unsurprisingly these are also British aims). I agree that there will be a Balkan crisis (or more than one) in the 1870s; Italy and Germany should cope with it by limited peacekeeping interventions and by propping up the Ottomans against the Russians, at the same time promoting reforms in the OE.

Well, it's not sure that this is what is going to happen (while I heartily agree that with the right butterflies, the Ottoman Empire in its 1913 could certainly be revitalized and last for the foreseeable future, I am much more skeptical that its hegemony over the Balkans can be thus preserved with a 1870s PoD) but it is a distinct possibility.

 

[Eurofed]

Who joins who in the alliance? Bulgaria was previously seen as basically a Russian puppet while Romania was in an alliance with Germany and Austria in OTL. They each went different ways. Are they in an alliance here?

Which alliance are you speaking of ? The 1870 one (when Bulgaria didn't exist yet) or the one that would form for the hypothetical TTL Great War ?

 

[Super Parker Brothers]

Ahh, sorry. Misread some parts which put the date upwards in my head.

 

[Snake Featherston]

So let me see if I get this straight: Russia, which was nearly beaten by the so-called Sick Man of Europe IOTL and is even more logistically vulnerable in a general war in 1870 than it was in 1914 (and lest we forget, that was a war Russia *lost*) is somehow able to send 100,000 men to fight and invade Austria, while France is busy getting beaten by Prussia despite the completely different military distribution of forces that would have to occur beforehand ITTL, and the Butterfly Net leaves both the Franco-Prussian War unchanged and Russia has an anachronistically-early Brusilov ability against Austria-Hungary?

 

[Douglas]

So let me see if I get this straight: Russia, which was nearly beaten by the so-called Sick Man of Europe IOTL and is even more logistically vulnerable in a general war in 1870 than it was in 1914 (and lest we forget, that was a war Russia *lost*) is somehow able to send 100,000 men to fight and invade Austria, while France is busy getting beaten by Prussia despite the completely different military distribution of forces that would have to occur beforehand ITTL, and the Butterfly Net leaves both the Franco-Prussian War unchanged and Russia has an anachronistically-early Brusilov ability against Austria-Hungary?

You clearly have such a lack of understanding about the scenario that I will dismiss your opinion.

 

[Timmy811]

So let me see if I get this straight: Russia, which was nearly beaten by the so-called Sick Man of Europe IOTL and is even more logistically vulnerable in a general war in 1870 than it was in 1914 (and lest we forget, that was a war Russia *lost*) is somehow able to send 100,000 men to fight and invade Austria, while France is busy getting beaten by Prussia despite the completely different military distribution of forces that would have to occur beforehand ITTL, and the Butterfly Net leaves both the Franco-Prussian War unchanged and Russia has an anachronistically-early Brusilov ability against Austria-Hungary?

The Russians don't actually have do anything aside from force the Austrians to spend a significant portion of their strength on confronting them while Prussia beats on France.

 

[adrian6035]

Would Austria ally with France ?

One of the - perhaps the single - most important influences on the period and events in question, is that, at the time, it was generally
assumed that France would win any war between France and Prussia.
This is a real problem for Russia, vis a vis fighting Austria, in a Franco - Austrian war against Prussia (1870). Hindsight can muddy our
understanding of the past.
Consider the likely scenario as it might have looked to Tsar Alexander II, Russia declares war on Austria in support of Prussia.
France trounces Prussia, Russia now faces France and Austria, the Ottomans step in against Russia - Britain perhaps acquiescing in this.
The spectre of Polish Nationalistic hopes rises, fanned by the hopes that France will assist. ( True there is a tension with Austria here). This
is a death knell for Russian hopes in the Balkans.
Consider Austria's position. Italy's rise in the 1860's is a very real threat to her important adriatic terrortories. There is the growth of Slav
nationalism, and the recent Hungarian uprising has threatened her very existance. These problems are not decisive if France defeats
Prussia, however Napoleon III has not been a reliable ally or friend to anyone. Will he abandon Austria for the sake of his own secret
machinations ?. Austria, having suffered at his hands in 1859 and 1866. This is one of the real problems for an Austrian attack on Prussia
(1870), that Napoleon III is an unreliable ally for Austria. The only certain thing the Austrian's can rely on is that Prussia will not attack them.
This at the time for an Austria that had been pretty battered over the last 10 years must have seemed like something to be protected.
Granted had Napoleon III been less Machiavelian, more reliable and less manipulated by Bismarck, then theres every chance Austria would
jump at joining France against Prussia.
Given the expeectation that France will beat Prussia, Italy will be wary of joining prussia.