August Wind

Let me say this about the ITL Brusilov Offensive, its still in its early stages. It came as a nasty shock to everyone who had discounted the possibly of a major Russian offensive ITL, which given the Russian performance to date its understandable why they have. The Austro Hungarians have shipped troops to deal with Serbia and they were caught with troops in the move.

All I can say is I need to break out the gas and throw it on the 1914 map because everything is going to change at the end of this war.
 
For Sale...useless colonies...

I wonder if any of the belligerents will look to sell off colonies to the two nations that can afford them: The USA and Britain.
 
I wonder if any of the belligerents will look to sell off colonies to the two nations that can afford them: The USA and Britain.

Honestly the US is tied down in Mexico and really can't afford to buy colonies at the moment, the British on the other hand could but I don't see the French swallowing their pride and the Germans and Italians know they would get screwed. Spain and Portugal are at peace and aren't in dire need of cash. The Dutch are in a hard spot, but they can hold their own. Japan isn't selling, end of story with them.
 
make it necessary...

Honestly the US is tied down in Mexico and really can't afford to buy colonies at the moment, the British on the other hand could but I don't see the French swallowing their pride and the Germans and Italians know they would get screwed. Spain and Portugal are at peace and aren't in dire need of cash. The Dutch are in a hard spot, but they can hold their own. Japan isn't selling, end of story with them.

They could buy colonies if it was seen as necessary to keep them out of other people's hands...anything in the Caribbean is valuable to both teh USA and Britain...
 
Shimonoseki, Japan, June 8 1915

For the Japanese men standing in this room this moment was a dream come true. In the past 20 years Japan had been in three wars. In each of those wars Japan had been victorious. Once against the Russians, and twice against the Chinese. However it was the second victory over China that they believed cemented their status as a great power. True the Americans could still knock them down a peg if they so choose to. But they were a great power now and no one could denial that fact now.

For the Chinese in the room it was a living nightmare. Once again they had been defeated by a former vassal state. However this lost was more painful than 1895. Far more painful. Two of the Chinese signers were paining to ask the Americans for political asylum in their nation. They knew full well that they would be viewed as traitors to China and would be hunted down and kill, most likely in the worse possible way. Another member of the Chinese delegation had a pistol waiting for him his hotel room. The fourth was going to ask the Germans for political asylum.

However for China there was no choice left for them. They had lost, again. Rebellions against Peking were breaking out all across China. Before they sailed for Shimonoseki they had received a report that the Russians had occupied a number of Turkish districts in Xinjiang. However this was unconfirmed at the moment with the Russian Ambassador in Tokyo saying he didn’t know what the Chinese were talking about.

As the last Chinese member of the Chinese delegation signed the Second Treaty of Shimonoseki all they knew for sure was the 20th Century in Asia would be a Japanese Century. Indeed the Land of the Rising Sun now had a very promising future. They knew there would be challenges ahead, but the future was bright and full of promise. For the Chinese this date would generally come to be viewed as the start of Chinese Civil War.

Article One
-China cedes to Japan in perpetuity and full sovereignty of island Hainan and the provinces of Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang.

Article Two
-China cedes to Japan in perpetuity and full sovereignty the Kwantung Lease Territory to be hence for known as Ryojun.

Article Three
-China cedes to Japan in perpetuity and full sovereignty the Japanese Concession of Tientsin. China further cedes 15 Hectare in Tientsin to Japan in perpetuity as well as full sovereignty that is attached to the Japanese Concession post-1902.

Article Four
-All Chinese citizens in the territory named in Article One, Two, and Three of this treaty have till April 6 1917 to decide if they keep their Chinese citizenship and emigration to China or becoming subjects of the Japanese Emperor and renounce their Chinese citizenship.

Article Five
-China agrees to pay Japan a war indemnity of 400 million Kuping Teal.

Article Six
-China is barred for further coastal or island concessions to other nations save for Japan.

Article Seven
-China cedes ownership of the Hanyeping mining and metallurgical complex to Japan.

Article Eight
-China re-confers Most Favored Nation status for Japan.

Article Nine
-China cedes ownership of the cruiser known as Chao Ho to Japan, to be hence for known as Naniwa.

Article Ten
-Japanese Police will have full rights of investigation and arrest to investigate the death of the Japanese Ambassador to the Empire of China on December 7 1914. They will have the full support the Chinese Police.

All told the Second Sino-Japanese War lasted just over seven months. For the Japanese they had lost just under 8,000 men killed in the war. Just over 15,000 men were wounded in service of the Emperor. For the Chinese it had been far worse. Just over 30,000 men of the Beiyang Army. A further 4,000 men died in service for China during the war. Close to 50,000 men were wounded in service of the Chinese state. The Beiyang Army was broken as a force in Chinese political matters. It was one of the leading causes to the Chinese Civil War, a civil war that would end till the Shanghai Accords in 1927.

Japan added some 318,000 sq miles of territory to her empire with the Second Treaty of Shimonoseki. This effectively double the size of the Japanese Empire overnight. It would be another month before the Imperial Japanese Army reached the farthest parts of their new territories in Manchuria. Even then it stretched the Imperial Japanese Army to its logistical limits. Now the question remained, would the British drag the Japanese into a war with the European Powers, because Japan was about tapped out and needed peace, not war.
 
I'm having trouble buying the Russians could pull off anything like Brusilov TTL. They have already taken substantially more losses then they by this point OTL, with TTL Masurian Lakes resulting the complete encirclement and destruction of Russia's 1st Army, a much worse result than OTL.

What worse, is that without Britain in the war, material for Russia is going to be much harder to come by, making rebuilding from these losses much harder.

Not to mention that Germany is much farther along, and the TTL equivalent of Gorlice_Tarnow should have happened to Russia last month, with even worse results than OTL.
Gorlice-Tarnow didn't happen ITL. The Congress of Poland was already in German hands. With the complete destruction of Russia's 1st Army at Masurian Lakes led to a Gorlice-Tarnow like offensive in the tail end of 1914 ITL. The Austro-Hungarians and German high commands really aren't on talking terms at this point and the A-H armes moved into Ukraine and the Germans moved north into the Baltic States. ITL Brusilov Offensive is more a last throw of the dice than anything else.
 
Japan is getting a good deal. Hopful they won't mess up later on.

Prince Hirobumi won't join the war. Japan has already gained much, and any more would push the empire to the breaking point. Even their debts to Britain aren't a full-proof means of dragging Japan to the war - Japan could run to Germany and ally with Germany in exchange for shouldering fully/partly Japan's debts. And Germany could still offer Northern Sakhalin...

...where would that leave Britain, especially with America focused on Mexico?
 
Chinese Vassal

I just realized something from the last update...no matter what the thoughts of the Chinese, Japan was NEVER a Chinese vassal. We absorbed a significant portion of their culture and adapted it to our needs, but Japan never bowed before the Chinese, NEVER.
 
I just realized something from the last update...no matter what the thoughts of the Chinese, Japan was NEVER a Chinese vassal. We absorbed a significant portion of their culture and adapted it to our needs, but Japan never bowed before the Chinese, NEVER.

I don't think anyone was proposing that they actually were. The entire update was meant to be an insight into how the Chinese see the end of the war, after all. The vassal line is put in because that's how the Chinese viewed the Japanese and it makes their current losses even more humiliating/unforgivable.
 
Let me say this, ITL version of WW2 is going to create some odd bedfellows.

Well OTL WW2 bring a very odd alliance agaisnt the Axis...very curious about ITTL.
Well i try: Imperial Japan, British Empire and Mitteleuropa (later USA and communist/socialist Russia join) vs Monarchical Fascist France, Fascist China, Fascist Austro-Hungary and Fascist revanchis tsarist Russia


Also no thoughts on Japan so far?

Well as said by others is a good deal for Japan, naturally this can easily develop in the victory disease of OTL; with the prince alive maybe militarism extremism can have a more difficult life...but i doubt that will not happen.
On the other side, the chinese emperor is basically history and whatever take his place will be a lot revanchist...after quell the various faction.
 
Nice update!

Now to the speculation...

While I can see a loseing France go the "fascist route" I doubt that Austro-Hungary would go it. Imo they would be more likely to splinter into seperate national/ethnic entities. That some of them go nationalist/fascist is then very probable.

On the other hand, if Germany can keep a lid on "Mitteleuropa" for some time, until the economic pros are strong enough to keep gravitating them together somewhat, then that would Imo be a massive strike against ultra-nationalism and comunism.

Germany here Imo is a lynch pin. If it can keep stable, probable it had a working gov., and tackle its own reforms, still likely but harder, it has an (egoistical) interest to keep the south east of Europe stable and somewhat prosperous.

For me a big question mark is Britain and its Empire. How would the structures be addapted for the future? If they are not done right, esp. in case of India, it could find itself with an Irelan 2.0 write LARGE there.

Another key player will most likely be the USA. Maybe not as strong as OTL but nevertheless important in American and Asiatic matters. TBH I can see both ways, one returning into isolation and the other more intervetionist. Largely depeanding on how the whole Mexico Mess is handled and how the population at large reacts.

China and Russia are again big question marks. The probable civil wars make predicting anything there futile, at least Imo.

Japan on the other hand may take a step back. They achieved massive gains and esp. if Germany honores its treaties it will see that it is a "respected" player. Well they could, or they get hunger for more... possible es. if the USA are somewhat isolationist again.
 
I don't think anyone was proposing that they actually were. The entire update was meant to be an insight into how the Chinese see the end of the war, after all. The vassal line is put in because that's how the Chinese viewed the Japanese and it makes their current losses even more humiliating/unforgivable.

Yep, its what the Chinese were thinking not what really was. They are deeply humiliated by this loss.

And the one thing IMO that keep the Chinese Civil War from starting till 1927 OTL has been gutted and badly defeated ITL. Now its full on instead of the warlord era, its full on civil war from the war go.
 
On the other hand, if Germany can keep a lid on "Mitteleuropa" for some time, until the economic pros are strong enough to keep gravitating them together somewhat, then that would Imo be a massive strike against ultra-nationalism and comunism.

Germany here Imo is a lynch pin. If it can keep stable, probable it had a working gov., and tackle its own reforms, still likely but harder, it has an (egoistical) interest to keep the south east of Europe stable and somewhat prosperous.

I think Solf can pull it off. From what I've read of the man, he was basically Bismarck 2.0. I think the Kaiser's best decision apart from not invading Belgium was making him the Reichkanzler.

For me a big question mark is Britain and its Empire. How would the structures be addapted for the future? If they are not done right, esp. in case of India, it could find itself with an Irelan 2.0 write LARGE there.
I agree. Ireland and India will probably be two flashpoints the reckoning of which will decide the fate of the empire.

Another key player will most likely be the USA. Maybe not as strong as OTL but nevertheless important in American and Asiatic matters. TBH I can see both ways, one returning into isolation and the other more intervetionist. Largely depeanding on how the whole Mexico Mess is handled and how the population at large reacts.
I don't think America will go isolationist. Depending on how the war in Mexico goes, they'll either decide to go OTL 'Superhero' America (sorry, that's how one of my professors characterized American foreign policy in a nutshell) or they decide to focus on cementing their grip over the East Pacific/West Atlantic while expanding south. If so, then we might see earlier independence for the Philippines...which depending on how important America sees Asia, could begin gravitating towards Japan's power bloc.

Japan on the other hand may take a step back. They achieved massive gains and esp. if Germany honores its treaties it will see that it is a "respected" player. Well they could, or they get hunger for more... possible es. if the USA are somewhat isolationist again.
Prince Hirobumi might take note of how the empire's logistics are already being stretched in NE Asia. Japan will probably still be expansionist, but in a different way: starting in Indochina (easy since France will probably be left crippled by the war and Britain's focused on checking Mitteleuropa and putting fires out in Ireland and India among other places) they'll probably try to set up an Asian power bloc along the lines of Germany's Mitteleuropa.


Yep, its what the Chinese were thinking not what really was. They are deeply humiliated by this loss.

Alright, alright...sorry 'bout that...just got a little carried away that's all :eek:

And the one thing IMO that keep the Chinese Civil War from starting till 1927 OTL has been gutted and badly defeated ITL. Now its full on instead of the warlord era, its full on civil war from the war go.
Not sure if that's a good or bad thing TBH :confused:

Of course for the Chinese it's bad, but what about the rest of the world?
 
I gave a hint to the rest of the world in the last update. Its also one of the causes of ITL WW2.

Hmm...re-read the last piece...I think Britain shot itself in the foot when they funded Japan's last offensive into China, as Japan being exhausted and all that means that they definitely won't want to enter another war and will want to cement their gains. Germany however...it depends: will Germany still press Russia to surrender Sakhalin? If so, there's a chance that the Japanese might seek an alliance with Germany in the near future, once the alliance with Britain lapses ala OTL/Germany offers other incentives to Japan.
 
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