Arafat dies in 1992

[MrHola]

Yassar Arafat had a brush with death in April 1992 when a plane he was in crash-landed in the Libyan desert. The pilot and several passengers were killed, Arafat suffered several broken bones and other injuries. What if Arafat had died in the crash?

Who would be his successor? What would be the consequences for the negotiations with Israel in the '90s?

 

[bouscher]

Honestly? the world would have been better off without him...I can't tell you how sorry the Israeli population is for the 93 pact...so many years of terrorism...

 

[Hannibal.Caesar]

Honestly? the world would have been better off without him...I can't tell you how sorry the Israeli population is for the 93 pact...so many years of terrorism...

True, but I don't think the Israelis would be sitting pretty with him gone either. I don't know how likely a situation like what we have right now in Gaza would be, but I don't think it could be discounted. Never mind his faults, Arafat did do a damn good job at holding the thousand different factions of the Palestinians together.

 

[MrHola]

Would Abbas still be his succsessor?

 

[MDSJR1967]

Honestly? the world would have been better off without him...I can't tell you how sorry the Israeli population is for the 93 pact...so many years of terrorism...

It would have been better if Arafat would have bit the dust during the Jordanian Civil War in 1970(Jordanian Army vs PLO).

 

[Nassirisimo]

Honestly? the world would have been better off without him...I can't tell you how sorry the Israeli population is for the 93 pact...so many years of terrorism...

Sure, because it was the Palestinians alone who were responsible for the breakdown of the Oslo Accords...

As I'm aware, there were still negotiations taking place between the Palestinians and the Israelis (that OTL culminated in the Oslo Accords). I'm not quite sure who would take over the PLO in the event of Arafat dying, but they would have to be rather extreme to break with Arafat's policy of seeking negotiation with Israel. The PLO was rapidly becoming broke, and negotiation by the early 90's had become more or less a necessity. The Israelis likewise had an incentive to continue with negotiations as the First Intifada had worried many Israels through the deteriorating security situation. For these reasons, I feel inclined to say that something similar to the Oslo accords may very well emerge even if Arafat dies in '92.