Another variant of Portugal doing better – POD in the early XX century.
The portuguese case in early XX century is fascinating – even more for someone born in that country.
In area is one of the biggest in the world – 10º to 12º with many not or badly explored resources.
Suffers from early very poor finances, poor education, dictatorial regime that is not much interested in developing the country / education population and several other problems.
I always thought – and if some things changed? No ASB, no ‘free’ new resources. Just found some early, and a change in regime. The rest is the story of that ‘what if’.
Fair warning – this is a story of a country progress (or not), not of people. Don’t count on good dialogues / personages. If you don’t like the premises, do both of us a favor, and stay away.
The military terms used, are the ones of present day, so – corvettes and frigates, instead of sloops and avisos, for example.
Trying to be more realist and minimize the POD’s.
After discovering that the diamond mining in Angola (near Huambo) are more extensive than initially tough, the portuguese regime, with a severe need for cash, ordered a comprehensive geological survey of is african colonies – Angola, Mozambique and Guinea – (no money to do the same in the Indian / Timor colonies) in early 1927. By late 1937, they have found almost all resources that OTL have been found up to early 201x.
A compromise is found in the government (Salazar only want to use money that already is available to the nation, the others want to get loans / create shared business with international groups), to get a minimum of loans / get international partners when no national expertise exist, and do the mining and creating rail access, but the transformation be in Portugal (european territory, not the colonies). Even to get that, the negotiations are very difficult, because Salazar is strongly against, and only the real danger of a break of the coalition that sustain the government tip his hand.
That also need a strong transport (passenger, cargo and oil) navy, that thankfully, shipyards and trained manpower exist to deliver – even if need to be a bit expanded / modernized. Like OTL, Salazar support Franco, and uses the SCW to get rid of the most radical of his supporters, send then to fight in support of Franco.
The portuguese government is not blind and they think that if a war between european big powers start in the next years, UK is going to suffer but ultimately win, with support of USA (when they enter the conflict). On the other side, they need to contain the communist menace, so the fascist / right wing ideas of some countries, need to get some support. Portugal have to do the utmost to stay away from said conflict.
Note..: This is the Salazar thinking in OTL, reported by several people (including UK and american ambassadors) that privy with him. With very small alterations, this is also going to be the portuguese ideology up to mid 44, at least.
By, the late 30’s (37-38), Portugal have several mining operations in Africa that don’t exist in OTL (gold, diamonds, bauxite, oil, iron, include manganese, copper, phosphates, granite, marble, uranium, quartz, lead, zinc, wolfram, tin, fluorite, sulfur, feldspar, kaolin, mica, asphalt, gypsum, talc and others).
That create a boom of jobs in the mining area, and the need also to build many rail lines to support said mines.
Portugal is also not blind to the food / textile plantations, nor to the fishing industries. The most severe limitation of the expansion is the continuous control placed by the Salazar group inside the government about the need of more founds to explore new resources.
But in the end, the colonies expanded a lot, and Portugal stay outside of debt. The european industry also expanded much, thanks to the needs to transform the many raw materials, and the continuous need of more ships – add to the anterior list, fishing and military ships. By mid 1939, the portuguese regime is turning rich, importing little, and have few unemployed. The creation of several industries, led to the need of much more energy, and by late 30’s in european Portugal several new dams are in construction to provide it.
The bureaucracy have also expanded enormously (normal), like the secret police (PIDE). The need to defend the new resources led to the creation of several colonial regiments (almost all, light infantry) – that to stay ‘honest’ are placed in other territories - troops from Angola served in Mozambique, and the ones from Mozambique in Angola or Guinean, for example. The Navy is in the middle of a big expansion program – mostly corvettes, frigates and destroyers, with the most advanced weapons and systems bought from UK, the rest produced locally. An effort for the maximum of parts and ammo to be produced in Portugal is made – again, the continuous war about funds is ever present.
Note..: After the 31 Madeira ‘incident / revolt’, Portugal understand that need a capable, modern navy, so ITTL, with a lot more money (even with grumbles) and resources, the portuguese navy just before WW2 is much more capable / modern.
So, in late 30’s (but before WW2, and after starting SCW), 3 more Douro class destroyers are ordered, and the order for 2 Glauco class submarines is expanded to 4. Two old, but still serviceable Centaur class light cruisers are also bought(these need a refit before delivered to the navy). A dozen of extra sloops / avisos of the Gonçalo Velho class are ordered, half to be built in the british shipyards, the other half in the portuguese shipyards.
You need to understand the following to perceive the logic behind the portuguese gov of this era:
They are catholic, nationalistic, corporative, antisocialist, anticommunist, anti-liberal and have a real fear of american interference / invasion of they area of interest. Only understand that, you understand the logic behind some of they decisions – the others are the idiotic (or not) blunders of this writer.
During the first part (39-42) of ww2, Portugal play both sides – with perfectly knowing from UK, for UK is better that Portugal trade with Germany (with measure), than running the risk of being taken and be part of the other side.(OTL data confirm that, without doubt). By mid 44, with the understanding that the Wallies are going to win, the portuguese gov take the decision – against the strong opposition of Salazar – to intervene on the Wallies side. To be honest, the capabilities of the Axis to interfere by that time are very low, and the rest of the decision group want to get some of the good will to be on the winning side (another lose for Salazar, that by this time, is much weak compared to OTL).
Note..: Portugal has sold a lot of raw materials to Germany – paid in hard cash (gold, the portuguese gov is not stupid and don’t accept Reich marks), and from 43 to 44 in tech, that need. Is not happy with the japanese occupation of Timor and Macau also, but for now can’t do a thing. That is part of the decision of intervene in the Wallies side – as soon as is evident they are going to win – to get they territories back, without much problems.
Up to 1939, Portugal bought hardware (military and civilian machinery) mostly from UK and Germany. After the war started, they start to bough from USA because the other two don’t have much if any surplus to sell.
Unlike OTL, Salazar have much less power, and a group that want to be less isolationist is well entrenched in the PIDE (secret / security apparatus), military high command and economy / industry supervision. What both groups have in common is that both are anticommunist and fervently nationalist.
During this time, and thanks to the extra funds, the portuguese navy received 4 improved Douro class destroyers – locally build and with a little british tech transfer.
By late Jun 44, the german agents in Portugal receive an info that they have 24 hours to exit the country. Soon after, Portugal enter in the war in the Wallies side. In August 15 1944, one infantry division – american equipped – and two destroyers participate in the Dragoon Operation – South of France disembarks.
Note..: By that time, with the knowing that the first (Overlord) disembarks are a success, is a sure bet for Portugal to enter the war on the Wallies side. While the forces are in training and preparation from several months, the ok is only done after the success of the first operation, Portugal don’t want to run the risk. For the Wallies, more important than the troops, is the – relatively – big portuguese merchant navy that can provide a much need help. That generate – for some months – a reduction of up to 60% in the traffic between Portuguese europe and the colonies, the ships are in use in the european military operations.
The portuguese forces - mostly african soldiers with a cadre of european officials (british trained in big part) - are placed under the orders of French commander Jean de Lattre de Tassigny and associated to the French Armée B.
Before that, secret negotiations with Franco occurs, to guarantee that Spain don’t try something folly, while several forces are occupied elsewhere. Franco also knows by this date what side is going to win the war, and don’t want to enrage then, so the necessary guarantees are relatively easy to obtain.
That no portuguese forces are used (nor accepted) to free Timor and Macau is not forget by the ruling regime. They have to accept, but they don’t like it at all. Until the end of the war, no portuguese forces are used outside the european theater. And some ‘subtle’ communications to not try ‘independent’ operations are received.
At the end of the war, Portugal is one of the few european countries that is in better state than at the beginning. Spain is still devastated by the SCW, UK is financially broke and almost all of the rest have suffered plenty of damage / have they finances ruined. Portugal, never been attacked, have benefited from a continuous grow, and is one of the few that is an exporting capability. Also important, don’t need american money nor have foreign bases on his territory. The various refugees that don’t want / can’t go to america (north and south) give a try to the country, and several stay. Including several german ones with dubious past, but the ones with recognized skill are authorized to stay, even invited to do so.
Macau and Timor are returned at end of the war, but the damage is done.
The perception that the kind of regime they have is not popular with the other countries led to the first plans to apparently change to a democratic one while maintaining the control in reality.
Note..: This is a different approach than Salazar in OTL – is famous Proudly Alone.
They also are making studies about the feasibility of let going several colonies and only maintain the valuable ones. After all, the ending of the British Empire is write in the wall for anyone caring to look, and that soon or later is going to happens the same to the other european ones is a given.
That the Salazar group is going to strongly opposes that is also take as a certain, and measures have to be taken to ‘solve’ that problem.
By May, 23 1949 in a palacian coup, Salazar is removed from power. This is only possible because Agostinho Lourenço, the leader of PIDE, is part of the coup forces. They know that is necessary to at least in appearance, change the regime to one more palatable to the western european and american powers if they want to stay in they good relations and profit from it.
By late 49, Portugal start negotiations with the new Indian government with the objective of release the portuguese colonies of Goa, Damão e Diu. At same time, Timor start the process of receive independence. The rest of the colonies transit to a regime similar to the new French one (from 1947) of the overseas departments.
Note..: Portugal stay with Angola, Mozambique, Guinea, Cabo Verde, Azores e Madeira – the atlantic isles and african territories.
Is easy to see that India soon or later is going to try to regain the territories and Timor is too poor and too distant, but under Salazar is impossible to ‘redesign’ the nation, and for the new face of the government to be accepted, someone need to get the blame. On top of that, Salazar is in collision course / growing different views about the future with the new people in power.
Portugal also stay with Macau – after all is already negotiated to return it to China by 1999, and is a profitable colony – the gaming taxes give a tidy sum to the portuguese government.
At the end of WW2, Portugal is in much better economic situation than OTL, and also in much better relations with the Western allies power block. Because of the production of several light escort ships (corvettes, frigates and escort destroyers, mostly) for the RN during the war years- and that on top of the ships produced for the portuguese commercial and military navies, Portugal not only have a modern, well trained network of shipyards, but also have a lot of money loaned to UK.
Portugal bought HMS Theseus (Colossus class) – now NRP S.Vicente. The rest of warships, the portuguese shipyards produce, don’t need to import.
The portuguese Navy (MP – Marinha Portuguesa), by 1954 have one carriers (modified Colossus class), 3 light cruisers (similar to modernized HMS Minotaur class) and 14 destroyers (similar to modernized USN Fletcher class), 4 submarines and several lighter and support vessels. As reported, with the exception of the carrier, all others are locally produced. Only the electronics (Radar and Sonar) and some of the weapons are imported.
The army by 1954, still use WW2 type weapons, and same for the air force. The majority of the military budget has gone to the expansion and modernization of the navy.
And that create a problem when South Africa order about 200 Centurion tanks in early 50’s. While Africa is relatively in peace, and only the small, poorly armed and equipped independence groups creating havoc, is not a secret that South Africa don’t like at all the fact that in the portuguese territories the regime practices the racial integration and equal rights, that is anathema for the Apartheid regime of South Africa. Some tension exists, and a modernization of armed forces by South Africa is see with alarm by Portugal.
By early 50’s only universities and high-tech technical schools only exist in portuguese europe, primary, secondary and ‘normal’ tech schools exist in great quantity in the african territories.
Also, except the strategic / high tech industries, the rest also start to appear in good numbers in the african territories.
Note..: That policy, while not talked about, is deliberate.
But, if the student have enough high notes, they don’t have problem accepting people from the colonies, even in the most prestigious institutes. That inside still exist friction, is another problem.
Same for the jobs, if qualified they accept anyone for the place. Well, still given first choice to europeans, but is a start.
Portuguese military / industrial capabilities
While having a growing auto industry – already producing many of the trucks, tractors and other kind of vehicles that nation need, they can’t (yet) produce tanks / IFV’s.
For the navy, except carriers and submarines, the portuguese shipyards can build any ship – military of civilian - that the country needs.
In the air side, they are just start a program, but don’t have technicians, industry of budget for now.
The infantry, on the other side have access to a nascent industry that start to produce local models equal to the best of top nations, and the ammo production is also top-of-the line from many ears. Except for ‘exotic’ ammo, like VT shells, that his. But ‘normal’ HE, FRAG, APDS, etc, from the pistol and rifle to the 155mm gun (bigger used by the army or navy) or all kind of dumb bombs – the biggest majority used by this time – they can produce enough and of good quality also.
Portugal, like OTL, is a founding member of NATO, and have one mechanized division in West Germany. The americans are happy to provide much of the hardware for the portuguese forces in NATO, but refuse to sell tanks to be used in Africa. That force Portugal to buy Centurions from UK – the same type that South Africa also use.
Note..: The Centurions are also considerable more expensive than the M48 the americans sell at very favorable prices.
To don’t have two different types of tanks and a mess in the maintenance / formation of crews / support units, Portugal decline the M48’s and buy 400 Centurions – 200 for Germany and 200 for Africa.
While Portugal support UK and France in the Suez Crisis, don’t participate in the military operations. The way the americans force UK and France to bow down is a confirmation by many that they are not to be trusted, and that Portugal need to obtain an independent military industry – and if possible nuclear weapons.
What have also profound influence in the portuguese government way of thinking is the fast way the british one capitulate to the americans while the french take more time and effort. Also the facto that Israel refuse to bow down until they position is considered is also noted.
That make Portugal reduce they dependency from UK and making overtures to France and Israel to enlarging trade negotiations and military and – if possible – nuclear joint programs.
The massive expansion of electronics research and industry is also started soon after.
Efforts to approach South Africa and reduce the latent tension between both nations are done, and with some results.
That is important because in the sixties both countries executed common operations against groups that both considered hostile.
The Four Countries Nuclear Program – is the name later the French, Israel, Portugal and South Africa nuclear research and production of nuclear weapons.
OTL, France only collaborate with Israel, but ITTL, Portugal – and via Portugal a bit later South Africa (that also get the good word from Israel) research, finance and put they resources together to get a viable civilian and military nuclear program. By late 50’s France have the more advanced technology, and of the others, Portugal is the one with more uranium (from europe and Angola) and also the richer, but the less technological / scientific capable.
Also, unlike OTL, all countries receive French civilian grade nuclear reactors (OTL SA receive US ones but only in 65, Portugal never and Israel received French assistance to build their).
On the same level of secrecy, is the rocket program – to obtain delivery systems to said nuclear weapons. Again, the cost and research is shared by the four countries. Only in late 70’s the level of cooperation is discovered by outsiders, so successful the security measures are.
Portugal implemented one – well visible – near Lisboa (Lisbon) – that one is only used for research / energy production. The very secret one is constructed deep in Angola – much easier to run a secret research / nuclear program there (near the Cuanza / Kwanza River, in the Malanje province). A big dam (OTL 2004) is construed there to justify the expense / manpower and energy levels in the area. Uranium is delivered from Cabinda mines. Because the remoteness of the area, is easy to implement stringent security measures, and more and more secret research / military projects / programs are located in that area.
With the continuous grow of the african territories in early 60’s for the first time Luanda and Mozambique received universities. That the curses are mostly in the agro and mining areas, is the start, but latter more and more departments are launched.
This kind of close collaboration comes with some strings attached, and some partnerships in other areas also.
Like Israel and South Africa in OTL, Portugal also joins the Mirage III buying group. That turns that plane the premier fighter / multi-role (with the portuguese and south african modifications) in Africa.
Portuguese universities (and secondary schools) start to create exchange programs with the other countries of the informal alliance, up to a lot of invited guests to give a much coved chair. At a medium term, this push up substantially the quality of the education and universities.
Portuguese and South African observers participate in the late period of the French-Algerian conflict that led to the Algeria independence.
French and Israel companies help several portuguese high tech companies fast-start (with a participation in the share, of-course, duh).
Portugal and SAfrica – after the South Africa exit from the Commonwealth – more and more share experience and programs in the military. The fact that the portuguese regime is race integrated and the south african is the opposite is diplomatically ignored in several occasions / treated.
By this time the carrier is showing is age, and a new one is ordered from DCNS, France – a slightly modified Clemenceau (laid down in 1957, commissioned in 1963 – like Foch).
Several ‘delicate’ situations happen from time to time in the portuguese-south african frontiers when the need to exchange / capture ‘criminals’ exist. Several times the intervention of high level diplomats is necessary to defuse situations and some badly handled cases are quietly buried.
The appearance of modern soviet military hardware and training in the hands of hostile groups / nations led to the need to improve the portuguese and south african vehicles in Africa in a very different direction of the NATO forces in Europe.
Not only is UK still smarting of SAfrica exit and losing the lucrative military portuguese market – and they still don’t understand why (too much bow down to US is considered a no go for Portugal, but they ego can’t accept that) – just after, lead to a no selling to the more advance weapons to both countries. ITTL Portugal and South Africa don’t receive upgrades for they Centurions (they still have the original engines, armor and 84mm guns).
This force a common portuguese / south-african program to improve the tanks. They priorities are different – for example they want an improved IED / mine defense system over up-gunned. That Denel / FMBP (Fabrica Militar Braço de Prata / Braço de Prata Military Factory) are busy developing they 105mm gun that in the end is superior to the fabled L7 – even if bigger, heavier and need a new turret, is largely ignored.
Note..: This is by the same time that France exited NATO – mid 60’s – so is largely ignored by the anglo-american nations. They don’t look to much into Africa after all, by this time.
One side effect of said universities / tech collaboration – is that with the help of Israeli technicians, the portuguese agro production / industry is evolving very fast.
The portuguese case in early XX century is fascinating – even more for someone born in that country.
In area is one of the biggest in the world – 10º to 12º with many not or badly explored resources.
Suffers from early very poor finances, poor education, dictatorial regime that is not much interested in developing the country / education population and several other problems.
I always thought – and if some things changed? No ASB, no ‘free’ new resources. Just found some early, and a change in regime. The rest is the story of that ‘what if’.
Fair warning – this is a story of a country progress (or not), not of people. Don’t count on good dialogues / personages. If you don’t like the premises, do both of us a favor, and stay away.
The military terms used, are the ones of present day, so – corvettes and frigates, instead of sloops and avisos, for example.
Trying to be more realist and minimize the POD’s.
After discovering that the diamond mining in Angola (near Huambo) are more extensive than initially tough, the portuguese regime, with a severe need for cash, ordered a comprehensive geological survey of is african colonies – Angola, Mozambique and Guinea – (no money to do the same in the Indian / Timor colonies) in early 1927. By late 1937, they have found almost all resources that OTL have been found up to early 201x.
A compromise is found in the government (Salazar only want to use money that already is available to the nation, the others want to get loans / create shared business with international groups), to get a minimum of loans / get international partners when no national expertise exist, and do the mining and creating rail access, but the transformation be in Portugal (european territory, not the colonies). Even to get that, the negotiations are very difficult, because Salazar is strongly against, and only the real danger of a break of the coalition that sustain the government tip his hand.
That also need a strong transport (passenger, cargo and oil) navy, that thankfully, shipyards and trained manpower exist to deliver – even if need to be a bit expanded / modernized. Like OTL, Salazar support Franco, and uses the SCW to get rid of the most radical of his supporters, send then to fight in support of Franco.
The portuguese government is not blind and they think that if a war between european big powers start in the next years, UK is going to suffer but ultimately win, with support of USA (when they enter the conflict). On the other side, they need to contain the communist menace, so the fascist / right wing ideas of some countries, need to get some support. Portugal have to do the utmost to stay away from said conflict.
Note..: This is the Salazar thinking in OTL, reported by several people (including UK and american ambassadors) that privy with him. With very small alterations, this is also going to be the portuguese ideology up to mid 44, at least.
By, the late 30’s (37-38), Portugal have several mining operations in Africa that don’t exist in OTL (gold, diamonds, bauxite, oil, iron, include manganese, copper, phosphates, granite, marble, uranium, quartz, lead, zinc, wolfram, tin, fluorite, sulfur, feldspar, kaolin, mica, asphalt, gypsum, talc and others).
That create a boom of jobs in the mining area, and the need also to build many rail lines to support said mines.
Portugal is also not blind to the food / textile plantations, nor to the fishing industries. The most severe limitation of the expansion is the continuous control placed by the Salazar group inside the government about the need of more founds to explore new resources.
But in the end, the colonies expanded a lot, and Portugal stay outside of debt. The european industry also expanded much, thanks to the needs to transform the many raw materials, and the continuous need of more ships – add to the anterior list, fishing and military ships. By mid 1939, the portuguese regime is turning rich, importing little, and have few unemployed. The creation of several industries, led to the need of much more energy, and by late 30’s in european Portugal several new dams are in construction to provide it.
The bureaucracy have also expanded enormously (normal), like the secret police (PIDE). The need to defend the new resources led to the creation of several colonial regiments (almost all, light infantry) – that to stay ‘honest’ are placed in other territories - troops from Angola served in Mozambique, and the ones from Mozambique in Angola or Guinean, for example. The Navy is in the middle of a big expansion program – mostly corvettes, frigates and destroyers, with the most advanced weapons and systems bought from UK, the rest produced locally. An effort for the maximum of parts and ammo to be produced in Portugal is made – again, the continuous war about funds is ever present.
Note..: After the 31 Madeira ‘incident / revolt’, Portugal understand that need a capable, modern navy, so ITTL, with a lot more money (even with grumbles) and resources, the portuguese navy just before WW2 is much more capable / modern.
So, in late 30’s (but before WW2, and after starting SCW), 3 more Douro class destroyers are ordered, and the order for 2 Glauco class submarines is expanded to 4. Two old, but still serviceable Centaur class light cruisers are also bought(these need a refit before delivered to the navy). A dozen of extra sloops / avisos of the Gonçalo Velho class are ordered, half to be built in the british shipyards, the other half in the portuguese shipyards.
You need to understand the following to perceive the logic behind the portuguese gov of this era:
They are catholic, nationalistic, corporative, antisocialist, anticommunist, anti-liberal and have a real fear of american interference / invasion of they area of interest. Only understand that, you understand the logic behind some of they decisions – the others are the idiotic (or not) blunders of this writer.
During the first part (39-42) of ww2, Portugal play both sides – with perfectly knowing from UK, for UK is better that Portugal trade with Germany (with measure), than running the risk of being taken and be part of the other side.(OTL data confirm that, without doubt). By mid 44, with the understanding that the Wallies are going to win, the portuguese gov take the decision – against the strong opposition of Salazar – to intervene on the Wallies side. To be honest, the capabilities of the Axis to interfere by that time are very low, and the rest of the decision group want to get some of the good will to be on the winning side (another lose for Salazar, that by this time, is much weak compared to OTL).
Note..: Portugal has sold a lot of raw materials to Germany – paid in hard cash (gold, the portuguese gov is not stupid and don’t accept Reich marks), and from 43 to 44 in tech, that need. Is not happy with the japanese occupation of Timor and Macau also, but for now can’t do a thing. That is part of the decision of intervene in the Wallies side – as soon as is evident they are going to win – to get they territories back, without much problems.
Up to 1939, Portugal bought hardware (military and civilian machinery) mostly from UK and Germany. After the war started, they start to bough from USA because the other two don’t have much if any surplus to sell.
Unlike OTL, Salazar have much less power, and a group that want to be less isolationist is well entrenched in the PIDE (secret / security apparatus), military high command and economy / industry supervision. What both groups have in common is that both are anticommunist and fervently nationalist.
During this time, and thanks to the extra funds, the portuguese navy received 4 improved Douro class destroyers – locally build and with a little british tech transfer.
By late Jun 44, the german agents in Portugal receive an info that they have 24 hours to exit the country. Soon after, Portugal enter in the war in the Wallies side. In August 15 1944, one infantry division – american equipped – and two destroyers participate in the Dragoon Operation – South of France disembarks.
Note..: By that time, with the knowing that the first (Overlord) disembarks are a success, is a sure bet for Portugal to enter the war on the Wallies side. While the forces are in training and preparation from several months, the ok is only done after the success of the first operation, Portugal don’t want to run the risk. For the Wallies, more important than the troops, is the – relatively – big portuguese merchant navy that can provide a much need help. That generate – for some months – a reduction of up to 60% in the traffic between Portuguese europe and the colonies, the ships are in use in the european military operations.
The portuguese forces - mostly african soldiers with a cadre of european officials (british trained in big part) - are placed under the orders of French commander Jean de Lattre de Tassigny and associated to the French Armée B.
Before that, secret negotiations with Franco occurs, to guarantee that Spain don’t try something folly, while several forces are occupied elsewhere. Franco also knows by this date what side is going to win the war, and don’t want to enrage then, so the necessary guarantees are relatively easy to obtain.
That no portuguese forces are used (nor accepted) to free Timor and Macau is not forget by the ruling regime. They have to accept, but they don’t like it at all. Until the end of the war, no portuguese forces are used outside the european theater. And some ‘subtle’ communications to not try ‘independent’ operations are received.
At the end of the war, Portugal is one of the few european countries that is in better state than at the beginning. Spain is still devastated by the SCW, UK is financially broke and almost all of the rest have suffered plenty of damage / have they finances ruined. Portugal, never been attacked, have benefited from a continuous grow, and is one of the few that is an exporting capability. Also important, don’t need american money nor have foreign bases on his territory. The various refugees that don’t want / can’t go to america (north and south) give a try to the country, and several stay. Including several german ones with dubious past, but the ones with recognized skill are authorized to stay, even invited to do so.
Macau and Timor are returned at end of the war, but the damage is done.
The perception that the kind of regime they have is not popular with the other countries led to the first plans to apparently change to a democratic one while maintaining the control in reality.
Note..: This is a different approach than Salazar in OTL – is famous Proudly Alone.
They also are making studies about the feasibility of let going several colonies and only maintain the valuable ones. After all, the ending of the British Empire is write in the wall for anyone caring to look, and that soon or later is going to happens the same to the other european ones is a given.
That the Salazar group is going to strongly opposes that is also take as a certain, and measures have to be taken to ‘solve’ that problem.
By May, 23 1949 in a palacian coup, Salazar is removed from power. This is only possible because Agostinho Lourenço, the leader of PIDE, is part of the coup forces. They know that is necessary to at least in appearance, change the regime to one more palatable to the western european and american powers if they want to stay in they good relations and profit from it.
By late 49, Portugal start negotiations with the new Indian government with the objective of release the portuguese colonies of Goa, Damão e Diu. At same time, Timor start the process of receive independence. The rest of the colonies transit to a regime similar to the new French one (from 1947) of the overseas departments.
Note..: Portugal stay with Angola, Mozambique, Guinea, Cabo Verde, Azores e Madeira – the atlantic isles and african territories.
Is easy to see that India soon or later is going to try to regain the territories and Timor is too poor and too distant, but under Salazar is impossible to ‘redesign’ the nation, and for the new face of the government to be accepted, someone need to get the blame. On top of that, Salazar is in collision course / growing different views about the future with the new people in power.
Portugal also stay with Macau – after all is already negotiated to return it to China by 1999, and is a profitable colony – the gaming taxes give a tidy sum to the portuguese government.
At the end of WW2, Portugal is in much better economic situation than OTL, and also in much better relations with the Western allies power block. Because of the production of several light escort ships (corvettes, frigates and escort destroyers, mostly) for the RN during the war years- and that on top of the ships produced for the portuguese commercial and military navies, Portugal not only have a modern, well trained network of shipyards, but also have a lot of money loaned to UK.
Portugal bought HMS Theseus (Colossus class) – now NRP S.Vicente. The rest of warships, the portuguese shipyards produce, don’t need to import.
The portuguese Navy (MP – Marinha Portuguesa), by 1954 have one carriers (modified Colossus class), 3 light cruisers (similar to modernized HMS Minotaur class) and 14 destroyers (similar to modernized USN Fletcher class), 4 submarines and several lighter and support vessels. As reported, with the exception of the carrier, all others are locally produced. Only the electronics (Radar and Sonar) and some of the weapons are imported.
The army by 1954, still use WW2 type weapons, and same for the air force. The majority of the military budget has gone to the expansion and modernization of the navy.
And that create a problem when South Africa order about 200 Centurion tanks in early 50’s. While Africa is relatively in peace, and only the small, poorly armed and equipped independence groups creating havoc, is not a secret that South Africa don’t like at all the fact that in the portuguese territories the regime practices the racial integration and equal rights, that is anathema for the Apartheid regime of South Africa. Some tension exists, and a modernization of armed forces by South Africa is see with alarm by Portugal.
By early 50’s only universities and high-tech technical schools only exist in portuguese europe, primary, secondary and ‘normal’ tech schools exist in great quantity in the african territories.
Also, except the strategic / high tech industries, the rest also start to appear in good numbers in the african territories.
Note..: That policy, while not talked about, is deliberate.
But, if the student have enough high notes, they don’t have problem accepting people from the colonies, even in the most prestigious institutes. That inside still exist friction, is another problem.
Same for the jobs, if qualified they accept anyone for the place. Well, still given first choice to europeans, but is a start.
Portuguese military / industrial capabilities
While having a growing auto industry – already producing many of the trucks, tractors and other kind of vehicles that nation need, they can’t (yet) produce tanks / IFV’s.
For the navy, except carriers and submarines, the portuguese shipyards can build any ship – military of civilian - that the country needs.
In the air side, they are just start a program, but don’t have technicians, industry of budget for now.
The infantry, on the other side have access to a nascent industry that start to produce local models equal to the best of top nations, and the ammo production is also top-of-the line from many ears. Except for ‘exotic’ ammo, like VT shells, that his. But ‘normal’ HE, FRAG, APDS, etc, from the pistol and rifle to the 155mm gun (bigger used by the army or navy) or all kind of dumb bombs – the biggest majority used by this time – they can produce enough and of good quality also.
Portugal, like OTL, is a founding member of NATO, and have one mechanized division in West Germany. The americans are happy to provide much of the hardware for the portuguese forces in NATO, but refuse to sell tanks to be used in Africa. That force Portugal to buy Centurions from UK – the same type that South Africa also use.
Note..: The Centurions are also considerable more expensive than the M48 the americans sell at very favorable prices.
To don’t have two different types of tanks and a mess in the maintenance / formation of crews / support units, Portugal decline the M48’s and buy 400 Centurions – 200 for Germany and 200 for Africa.
While Portugal support UK and France in the Suez Crisis, don’t participate in the military operations. The way the americans force UK and France to bow down is a confirmation by many that they are not to be trusted, and that Portugal need to obtain an independent military industry – and if possible nuclear weapons.
What have also profound influence in the portuguese government way of thinking is the fast way the british one capitulate to the americans while the french take more time and effort. Also the facto that Israel refuse to bow down until they position is considered is also noted.
That make Portugal reduce they dependency from UK and making overtures to France and Israel to enlarging trade negotiations and military and – if possible – nuclear joint programs.
The massive expansion of electronics research and industry is also started soon after.
Efforts to approach South Africa and reduce the latent tension between both nations are done, and with some results.
That is important because in the sixties both countries executed common operations against groups that both considered hostile.
The Four Countries Nuclear Program – is the name later the French, Israel, Portugal and South Africa nuclear research and production of nuclear weapons.
OTL, France only collaborate with Israel, but ITTL, Portugal – and via Portugal a bit later South Africa (that also get the good word from Israel) research, finance and put they resources together to get a viable civilian and military nuclear program. By late 50’s France have the more advanced technology, and of the others, Portugal is the one with more uranium (from europe and Angola) and also the richer, but the less technological / scientific capable.
Also, unlike OTL, all countries receive French civilian grade nuclear reactors (OTL SA receive US ones but only in 65, Portugal never and Israel received French assistance to build their).
On the same level of secrecy, is the rocket program – to obtain delivery systems to said nuclear weapons. Again, the cost and research is shared by the four countries. Only in late 70’s the level of cooperation is discovered by outsiders, so successful the security measures are.
Portugal implemented one – well visible – near Lisboa (Lisbon) – that one is only used for research / energy production. The very secret one is constructed deep in Angola – much easier to run a secret research / nuclear program there (near the Cuanza / Kwanza River, in the Malanje province). A big dam (OTL 2004) is construed there to justify the expense / manpower and energy levels in the area. Uranium is delivered from Cabinda mines. Because the remoteness of the area, is easy to implement stringent security measures, and more and more secret research / military projects / programs are located in that area.
With the continuous grow of the african territories in early 60’s for the first time Luanda and Mozambique received universities. That the curses are mostly in the agro and mining areas, is the start, but latter more and more departments are launched.
This kind of close collaboration comes with some strings attached, and some partnerships in other areas also.
Like Israel and South Africa in OTL, Portugal also joins the Mirage III buying group. That turns that plane the premier fighter / multi-role (with the portuguese and south african modifications) in Africa.
Portuguese universities (and secondary schools) start to create exchange programs with the other countries of the informal alliance, up to a lot of invited guests to give a much coved chair. At a medium term, this push up substantially the quality of the education and universities.
Portuguese and South African observers participate in the late period of the French-Algerian conflict that led to the Algeria independence.
French and Israel companies help several portuguese high tech companies fast-start (with a participation in the share, of-course, duh).
Portugal and SAfrica – after the South Africa exit from the Commonwealth – more and more share experience and programs in the military. The fact that the portuguese regime is race integrated and the south african is the opposite is diplomatically ignored in several occasions / treated.
By this time the carrier is showing is age, and a new one is ordered from DCNS, France – a slightly modified Clemenceau (laid down in 1957, commissioned in 1963 – like Foch).
Several ‘delicate’ situations happen from time to time in the portuguese-south african frontiers when the need to exchange / capture ‘criminals’ exist. Several times the intervention of high level diplomats is necessary to defuse situations and some badly handled cases are quietly buried.
The appearance of modern soviet military hardware and training in the hands of hostile groups / nations led to the need to improve the portuguese and south african vehicles in Africa in a very different direction of the NATO forces in Europe.
Not only is UK still smarting of SAfrica exit and losing the lucrative military portuguese market – and they still don’t understand why (too much bow down to US is considered a no go for Portugal, but they ego can’t accept that) – just after, lead to a no selling to the more advance weapons to both countries. ITTL Portugal and South Africa don’t receive upgrades for they Centurions (they still have the original engines, armor and 84mm guns).
This force a common portuguese / south-african program to improve the tanks. They priorities are different – for example they want an improved IED / mine defense system over up-gunned. That Denel / FMBP (Fabrica Militar Braço de Prata / Braço de Prata Military Factory) are busy developing they 105mm gun that in the end is superior to the fabled L7 – even if bigger, heavier and need a new turret, is largely ignored.
Note..: This is by the same time that France exited NATO – mid 60’s – so is largely ignored by the anglo-american nations. They don’t look to much into Africa after all, by this time.
One side effect of said universities / tech collaboration – is that with the help of Israeli technicians, the portuguese agro production / industry is evolving very fast.
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. They can do in theory - can use the French AAM's after all.