Anglo-German War in 1899-1900 (Who Wins?)

Anglo-German War in 1899 (Who Wins?)

  • Great Britain Decisively

    Votes: 53 30.5%
  • Great Britain Tactically

    Votes: 70 40.2%
  • Stalemate

    Votes: 46 26.4%
  • Imperial Germany Decisively

    Votes: 2 1.1%
  • Imperial Germany Tactically

    Votes: 3 1.7%

  • Total voters
    174
Of course ships can be stopped on the high seas searched for contraband and seized if they have it. They can be stopped anywhere but the territorial waters of a neutral nation.

Blockades are a blanket ban on any ship entering or leaving a harbor no matter what they carry. Even neutral warships aren't allowed to enter

No, again I think you clearly misunderstand the whole concept.

A blockade to be legal requires informing all neutral parties prior to its implementation, it requires a list of contraband goods to be issued. Some vessels are by their very nature immune, hospital ships and diplomatic vessels for example. Further to be legal it must be physically enforced and traditionally this meant by actually stationing ships off of the targeted harbours. However by 1900 the world had had the American Civil War and more pertinently a US Admiralty Court ruling that vessels breaking the blockade may be intercepted anywhere on their journey...when the British adopted this practice in Word War 1 it would be called distant blockade.

However in a general war with most of Europe most of the world's merchant shipping will be taken off the table as the British can engage it using cruiser rules.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Of course ships can be stopped on the high seas searched for contraband and seized if they have it. They can be stopped anywhere but the territorial waters of a neutral nation.

Blockades are a blanket ban on any ship entering or leaving a harbor no matter what they carry. Even neutral warships aren't allowed to enter
A blockade is essentially to say that "I am stopping these goods from entering this nation". You must let through ships which do not carry those goods you block; you can stop a neutral ship to inspect it, but you may only take it into port for legal ajudication (i.e. sieze) if you have reasonable suspicion that it both "has contraband" and "is breaking blockade".

For example, a ship heading to Hamburg carrying lace can be stopped and searched (in legal terms neutral nations provide the blockading power with the "Right of Search") but cannot be siezed as lace is not contraband.

A ship heading to Rotterdam carrying munitions is liable to be stopped and searched as well, and in this case the focus is "is this ship going to be really putting in in Rotterdam", "is this ship going to unload there", and "is the cargo destined for the enemy". If the answer is that the cargo is not destined for the enemy, then the ship must be allowed on its way; if the cargo is going to the enemy, then it is in breach of blockade and may be seized. If the majority of the cargo is contraband, then the whole ship may be seized.

Ships bereft of contraband are allowed to go through the blockade, indeed must be allowed for the blockade to be legal.
 
Why do we "need" a French warship to blow up? It's highly unlikely in the scenario as posted, given the size, disposition and training of the RN at the time. To have it as anything else smacks of handwaving to just get the French against the British.
I wrote something like a French warship blowing up in mysterious circumstances. Not a French warship blowing up in mysterious circumstances. In the last post I thought of suggesting the French Government finding a pretext to start a war against Britain to divert attention from the Dreyfus affair. E.g. like Argentina taking the Falklands in 1982. However, I thought better of it.

Re smacking of hand waving, I think the idea of an Anglo-German war at the time given in the OP and the cause given in the OP are both hand waving. I agree with you that Germany is not going to war with Britain at this time given the size, disposition and training of the RN at the time.
"2 Austrians" were the Heir to the Throne and his wife, not a couple of tourists! That and there were long standing, pre-existing issues in play that led the Austrians to use the incident to declare war.
I'm well aware of who the 2 Austrians were and so will everyone else on this board. Referring to them as 2 Austrians was a deliberate understatement.
Several nations did declare war on Britain during the AWoI, but they all had pre-existing reasons to get involved. The French were worried that the British would grant independence of sorts to the colonies and unite with the Americans against them, so a DoW was felt needed to give them the support they needed for complete independence. The Dutch were still competing with the British on a worldwide scale for colonial and trade mastery, so a war against the British is the obvious thing to get involved with. The Spanish went along because the French had declared and they were concerned about the security of their Caribbean possessions. Britain was already "too great" the AWoI was seen as a chance to redress the balance. It, however, fitted into the imperial competitions that existed at the time.
I don't know enough about the imperial competitions that existed in 1899-1900 to argue with that.
Nothing like that existed in 1900 to generate a chance as high as 50-50 for a European nation to go to war against Britain. It's a POD to have the Germans go for it (even Wilhelm, if he wanted it at that point, new Germany wasn't ready) and it's highly unlikely to have a second Great Power go for it as well. If Britain gets a continental proxy, then a third or fourth European power might get dragged in, but that's more of a continental war as a corollary to the Anglo-German one.
As I wrote earlier on I think the idea of an Anglo-German war at this time is unrealistic in the first place, but I also think its fun to play about with it.
 

hipper

Banned
If You look at what Tje Royal Navy actually did in two world wars you will find that the concept of blockade was what the British government said it was.

To take the case of Italy while it was neutral in 1939 and early 1940 Italy was allowed to import German coal carried in neutral shipping from Amsterdam (the railways from Germany could not handle the volume easily). However after it was obvious that Italy was going to be a pro German neutral and not for example sell the UK aircraft, then Italy's sea imports were restricted to what they had been the year before.so Italy could not buy up a lot of oil on the world market and ship it to Germany.

This was not "legal" by international law it's just what the British did because they could. The blockade was mainly enforced by bunker controll ie unless a ship registered its voyages and cargo with British shipping control it found it impossible to refuel in a British controlled port, and was liable to interception by RN vessels and being sent to port for cargo examination. This renders your voyage unprofitable. while defiance was possible in some routes and certain locations shipping ultimately had to make use of seas conrolled by the RN.

One especially egregious example of this is the stopping of the Japanese flagged Ship Asama Maru in the Sea of Japan in 1940 and the seizure of 21 Germans from that ship. Which is very similar to the cause of the Trent Crisis 80 years earlier.

Cheers Hipper.
 
As I wrote earlier on I think the idea of an Anglo-German war at this time is unrealistic in the first place, but I also think its fun to play about with it.


While I cannot speak for GlobalHumanism I do think the original question was more in the nature of hypothetical in order to generate some kind of discussions of the capabilities and strategic options available. I also think the idea of considering what happens if more than one power jumps in was also worth considering. The problem arose when the thread became awash with Anglo-phobic daydreams.

Now that has two parts. One issue is that people simply refuse to grasp the level of disparity between the Royal Navy and everyone else. 1900 was in fact one of the peak periods of disparity as most of the other major navies had allowed the bulk of their equipment to age out (Note the references in other posts to confusion in the various naval ministries) and the new kids on the block the US and Germany were not yet into stride with their own programs. When this point was made clear the reaction was sheer rage. The other issue is that some members of this board seem personally offended by the existence of the British Empire and seek to expunge it from history. Not much can be done about the latter but those without an axe to grind can be shown there was a reason the British Empire was not swept away prior to 1900 other than goodness of everybody but the evil Britishers hearts.

The essential reason that the British Empire was not carved up by a coalition of the everyone was that the British had access to an awful lot of the stuff they needed to last a long time and that while a lot of powers had a lot of military strength they could employ at home or their near abroad it was very hard to get at the British Empire due to the Royal Navy (or simple geography) getting in the way. Worse the British could get between every other nation and stuff it needed which meant any war was going to hurt people economically, not to the point of collapse but quite likely to the point where citizens get really angry about the war.
 
Some more information about the superiority of the Royal Navy over the Kaiserliche Marine at the time.

In 1883 the personnel strength of the Kaiserliche Marine was 453 offices and 5,062 ratings. This grew to 26,000 in 1897 when the Service had 8 battleships, 8 armoured coast defence ships, 10 large cruisers, 22 small cruisers and 110 torpedo boats.

However, the Royal Navy had about 4 times more men than the Kaiserliche Marine over this period as demonstrated from Vote A (numbers) from the Navy Estimates from 1897-98 to 1900-01.

1897-98 100,050
1898-99 106,390
1899-00 110,640
1900-01 114,880

The earliest date that I have matching naval expenditure for is the 1901-02 financial year. According to the source:

· Total German naval expenditure was £9,530,000. This included £2,701,712 for 62,640 tons of new construction. The number of personnel was 31,157.

· Total British expenditure was £34,872,299. This included £10,420,256 for 139,940 tons of new construction. The number of personnel was 117,116.

So Britain was spending over 3 times more money on its navy than Germany was on its. It was spending 4 times more on new construction and its personnel strength was nearly 4 times more too.
 
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Saphroneth

Banned
This was not "legal" by international law it's just what the British did because they could.
Kind of is legal (it's called the Doctrine of Continuous Voyage). Same reason why the US condemned cargoes going into Vera Cruz which were destined for the CS.

The RN did largely do whatever it wanted, but it tried not to overstretch because PR was important for a blockade.
 
Sure!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Félix_Faure

After this guy dies in a way most novelists would have trouble upstaging, you get Paul Deroulede trying to get troops marching on the seat of government, Bonapartists under Victor Bonaparte were ready to move against the government as were Orleanists under Phillipe, Duke of Orleans. Toss in a pro-German side and a pro-UK side, maybe with Dreyfus or Marx also getting factions, and France in early 1899 makes a great potential proxy battlefield.


Thank you
 

Dear NOMISYRRUC,

I found this balanced and reasonable with very good points, that I was compelled by your logic to agree to the possibility that a Franco-British is still possible in 1900.

Yours
Stafford1069
 
Dear NOMISYRRUC,

I found this balanced and reasonable with very good points, that I was compelled by your logic to agree to the possibility that a Franco-British is still possible in 1900.

Yours
Stafford1069

Aye :) And a Franco-British one is possible, but the "Hey Europe, wanna dogpile the UK with us?" britscrew from earlier parts of this thread is simply impossible. Germany and France were basically doing this;


At one another due to the whole War thing a few years back. Austria and Russia were glaring daggers at each other, Holland was doing stuff in the Far East and Belgium was doing horrific things in the Congo. Oh and Spain was basically an irrelevant power with no empire who just got its teeth kicked in and its navy all but destroyed by the USA. Italy had the industrial strength of a mouse and was barely a fully unified country (by what 30 odd years ish?). The notion that suddenly everyone in Europe is gonna gang up to help Germany in a War against England that started against a kerfuffle in Samoa is simply bonkers.
 
Sure!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Félix_Faure

After this guy dies in a way most novelists would have trouble upstaging, you get Paul Deroulede trying to get troops marching on the seat of government, Bonapartists under Victor Bonaparte were ready to move against the government as were Orleanists under Phillipe, Duke of Orleans. Toss in a pro-German side and a pro-UK side, maybe with Dreyfus or Marx also getting factions, and France in early 1899 makes a great potential proxy battlefield.

Whilst I'm not saying an Anglo-French war is impossible in the period, this post sort of misrepresents the Dreyfus Affair and what it was about.

This wasn't an issue that would have led to civil war really. It was important, and passionately argued, and deeply divisive but it was at its core about French unity and security. I think a good example is America's feelings about the War in Iraq. Some supported it, to almost unquestioningly fervent nationalistic peaks, whilst others protested vehemently against it for years and cursed Bush as a warmonger and criminal. Yet the Iraq issue would never have fueled a civil war on its own.

By 1898-1899 both Bonapartists and Orleanists are relatively spent forces - OTL Deroulede was more of a crank than a real threat and its hard to imagine him persuading any troops to march on the Government in this period.

But crucially the Dreyfus case was about Franco-German relations - where is this pro-German faction going to come from? How is Dreyfus going to lead a faction from the Dry Guillotine? How are the Marxists coming to stage a comeback only decades after the disaster of the Paris Commune?

Anglo-French war in 1899? Plausible. French civil-war over the Dreyfus Affair? I think that's so implausible as to be impossible.
 
Unlikely though. France considered Germany the bigger threat (part of the reason they came to a diplomatic solution in the first place was because of the fear that they might get into a war with Germany, and lose again, unless Britain was willing to back them up), and besides, if they help beat Germany they get Alsace Lorraine back, plus some overseas possessions, whereas if they beat Britain they get only some overseas possessions. Mind you, I don't know whether they'd get into the fight proper, probably just play neutral but pro-Britain, raising transshipping charges so high that it's not really economic to bring stuff through them.
I'd not thought of the French coming in on the British side before. It would also be in Great Britain's interest to let France get Alsace-Lorraine back because that would deprive Germany of its main source of iron ore and give France a more defensible frontier.

I don't know anything about the relative strengths and weaknesses of the French and German Armies, but my guess is that in terms of population the ration of population would be more favourable to France in 1900 than it was in 1910 (40 million to 64 million). Furthermore the UK and France were more superior industrially to Germany in 1900 than they were in 1914. And its 5 years before the Schlieffen Plan.
 
Aye :) And a Franco-British one is possible, but the "Hey Europe, wanna dogpile the UK with us?" britscrew from earlier parts of this thread is simply impossible. Germany and France were basically doing this;


At one another due to the whole War thing a few years back. Austria and Russia were glaring daggers at each other, Holland was doing stuff in the Far East and Belgium was doing horrific things in the Congo. Oh and Spain was basically an irrelevant power with no empire who just got its teeth kicked in and its navy all but destroyed by the USA. Italy had the industrial strength of a mouse and was barely a fully unified country (by what 30 odd years ish?). The notion that suddenly everyone in Europe is gonna gang up to help Germany in a War against England that started against a kerfuffle in Samoa is simply bonkers.
Agreed. At most I think it would have been UK vs France, Germany and Russia, but there might be an anti-British armed neutrality consisting of some of the other countries.

Though if France had used the opportunity to extract revenge on Germany as MatII has suggested (and which I now think is more likely than France declaring war on Great Britain) then the alliance system might drag the rest of Europe into something looking a lot like the OTL World War one, but 15 years earlier. That is France declares war on Germany, so France's ally Russia has to declare war on Germany, which means that Germany's ally Austria-Hungary has to declare war on France and Russia. Though in common with OTL Italy's hatred of Austria might get in the way of its membership of the Triple Alliance and they sit it out for the first few months while the Italian Government decides which side is most likely to win and who they can win the most territory from.
 
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Deleted member 94680

Agreed. At most I think it would have been UK vs France, Germany and Russia, but there might be an anti-British armed neutrality consisting of some of the other countries.

I really think by 1900, a British vs Franco-German alliance is so unprobable (without a further POD) that it's ASB. As Reydan has pointed out, the whole reason Dreyfuss was considered a traitor (anti-semitism aside) is that he was accused of helping Germany. The French were paranoid to the point of insanity about the Germans coming back for a second 1871, they were obsessed with regaining A-L - children were taught about the stain on national honour that it's loss represented. The slightest chance to regain the lost provinces would have been lept upon. Germany going to War with Britain would have been considered that chance. French money and diplomacy would have been thrown at Russia to get them involved and as you've said, we would have had a proto-WWI.

Probably why Germany didn't do anything until 1914, when they felt they were running out of time against Russian rearmament, the Navy claimed they were ready to choke the British trade and the Sarajevo assassinations tipped their hand.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
It's not my area of expertise, but my understanding is that the Alliance of the Three Emperors and the Reinsurance Treaty between Germany and Russia were allowed to lapse by Wilhelm II. Is that correct?

The alliance of the Three Emperors lapsed long before. The Reinsurance Treaty was the side deal the Russians and the Germans made after it. The Reinsurance Treaty lapses under Willie just after he replaced Bismarck with Caprivi. The Germans were angling to get the British into the Triple Alliance. Caprivi also thought Bismarck's system of cross dealing was difficult to balance and dangerous as the partners would eventually find out
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Oh, god, a 1900 Great War...
Hold on a sec.

The Krupp guns of 1896 were rebuilt to have a hydropneumatic recoil system in 1904.

The French have a monopoly on quick firing artillery.
...well, that's going to be nasty for the Germans for the first couple of years.
 
Oh, god, a 1900 Great War...
Hold on a sec.

The Krupp guns of 1896 were rebuilt to have a hydropneumatic recoil system in 1904.

The French have a monopoly on quick firing artillery.
...well, that's going to be nasty for the Germans for the first couple of years.
«Quoi qu'il arrive, nous avons obtenu les tirs d'artillerie rapide, et ils ont pas."
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Actually, I think that (and the relative lack of MGs) means that the French assaults will go as well as they did OTL for the Japanese in the Russo-Japanese War around this year - the artillery and rifle fire combine to suppress the enemy defenders, and then a charge is possible. Bloody, but not hopeless.
 
t
Oh, god, a 1900 Great War...
Hold on a sec.

The Krupp guns of 1896 were rebuilt to have a hydropneumatic recoil system in 1904.

The French have a monopoly on quick firing artillery.
...well, that's going to be nasty for the Germans for the first couple of years.

Germany has the Mauser 98 and some other interesting small arms advances that are not as impressive as the French 75mm but could still have a few impacts, especially if they can develop or expand on semi-automatic rifles (like Mannlicher's in Austria) just beginning to make their way to militaries of the time, often ostensibly rejected though few barriers would remain to using them on a wide scale. Heck, the Remington Model 8 / Autoloading Rifle was released within a year of the century's turn *and produced in Belgium shortly thereafter*, add Spitzer rounds and adjust the powder a bit and you get a round that might perform akin to a 7.62x39 / AK47 round, essentially giving the troops an SKS equivalent over four decades ahead of OTL.
 
Alright, I've got comments on both the PoD and the outcome.

People have rightly questioned the plausibility of the PoD. I don't see the Kaiser just up and Deciding to start a war w/ Britain from a standing start. Germany ended up gaining Samoa, one of its 3 profitable colonies [Togo and Nauru were the other ones] as a result of OTL's settlement not a bad deal.

What is needed for war at this time is for Germany to be more stubborn about reciprocal concessions and being more annoying to the British in terms of demands, deployments or support to the Boers in the belief that whatever Germany is doing is not enough to provoke britain to actually go to war in retaliation. Germany needs to push Britain beyond its endurance enough for the British government to decide that tolerating Germany's moves is worse than having war with Germany. Perhaps one shift could be Chamberlain becoming convinced that a German war would be an opportunity to strengthen relations with the Dominions by dividing up colonial spoils with them.

Perhaps if the Kaiser never sent the Telegram to Kruger a few years before, and had faced Britain's apoplectic reaction he would not have truly seen how dangerous supporting the Boers (or supporting the German proxy rebels in Samoa) actually was.

As for the outcome and course of a war, I would think:

a) Neither can defeat the other, but Germany will lose any colonies Britain chooses to take.
b) Other powers will most likely *not* join in, without additional multi-poddage and other contrivances.

Why Russia won't attack Germany:
Russia does not have much animus against Germany at this time, Russia hates the Brits and sympathizes with the Boers. Russia has a couple years old deal with Austria-Hungary to put the Balkans "on ice". Russian expansionist energies are more focused on the Far East than Europe at this time. No amount of British or French funding would suffice to "purchase" Russian belligerency against Germany.

Why France won't attack Germany:
Lack of Russian support will cool French enthusiasm for fighting Germany. Despite the ever-present desire for regaining Alsace-Lorraine, France, the 1890s and up through the Morocco crisis were an era of much reduced tensions. The French may explore this Anglo-German war as an opportunity for a revenge war, but they would have to be highly confident they are set up for success. At a minimum, they would require Russian support in the east [which we've ruled out] *or* a British commitment not just to aid a subsidize & French offensive on the ground against Germany, but a commitment to actually commit British armies to the fight. Theoretically, the British could make such a commitment in order to force the issue decisively, but the odds would favor them not doing so, because based on an easy cost-benefit analysis, they could be confident in defeating Germany in the colonies and oceans in due time without having to launch an expensive land campaign which would mostly serve French interests.

Why France won't attack Britain:
It knows its naval inferiority. It knows it has much more overseas property exposed to British attack than either Germany or Russia. Fighting on Germany's side is too bitter a pill to swallow. It knows that warring with Britain increases Germany's advantage over France on the continent. France might super, super secretly, explore a deal where they join the German side, in exchange for the return of Alsace-Lorraine. But Germany will find that too high a price to pay. Germany will feel confident it can unilaterally defend all its land possessions.

Why Russia won't attack Britain:
It knows France doesn't want to. It knows war with Britain is expensive and hazardous. It is more focused on expansion in the Far East (Where it has not been entirely unsuccessful) than expansion on its borders with Afghanistan, Persia and the Ottoman Empire at this time. [Witness their unwillingness to join British anti-Ottoman initiatives a few years earlier]

So, while the left to their own devices and druthers, France might be tempted to fight Germany, and Russia might be tempted to fight Britain, the effect of their allies' competing priorities, the high costs of getting involved and the high benefits of profiteering as neutrals means the most plausible media via *at this point* is to remain neutral and trade with both sides, with France sitting back with some wine and cheese, and Russia sitting back with vodka and caviar.

c) both British and German sides will suffer economic losses and confiscate each other's property.

d) German colonies can do no more than raid before being invaded and occupied. German involvement however could encourage the Boers to fight on a bit longer. The war will not be cost-free for Britain. In the end, the British will run down German commerce raiders, and the British Empire forces will occupy all German territories they did in OTL's WWI, providing services for the Empire like investing Australia, New Zealand and the Cape Colony in sub-imperialism and unification of the Cape to Cairo route. The British *might* hesitate to take Kamerun or Togo, if only to spare themselves the expense and to leave the door open to France to come in on the British side. The British might employ a similar logic and hesitate to take Tsingtao and Micronesia from Germany to leave the door open for Japan or the US to come in on their side.

e) Britain probably could not be induced to trade back any colonies they occupy. In no settlement would the British give back any of the colonies in the Pacific south of the Equator, or Tanganyika or Southwest Africa, because their utility to the Empire and Imperial cohesion is too great. The others might be negotiable, [provided Germany somehow gets leverage which is hard to see], but if for example America or Japan are the ones to occupy Tsingtao or Micronesia, Britain has no ability to restore these to Germany.

f) There will not be submarine warfare because of technological limits and certainly no unrestricted submarine warfare because of the # of militarily powerful neutrals this could offend. There will be commerce raiding, with gradually shrinking affect as the raiders are hunted down.

g) Blockade will harm the German economy. It will also interrupt the German trade overseas in goods, to the advantage of neutral and even British firms. The naval disparity may enable Britain to implement a close blockade, but that would be one of the few courses of action that would expose Britain to naval losses. Consumer prices will rise, but over time cross-border trade in Europe will boom. As some have said the infrastructure as it was at the time will impose some limits on affordable cross-border trade. Aside from some neutral merchants & producers, other people making the most money from this will be people who own property along desirable rights-of-way for road and rail building, and rail investors.

h) The blockade will not lead to any Germans in Germany starving, nor impair military capability. With its land army in Europe "unemployed" it will hardly be enlarged and it will expend consumables at a peacetime rate. There will be no diversion of labor, animals or machines from agriculture. A peacetime Germany can probably be food self-sufficient, and it would have sufficient financial liquidity to purchase other food from neighbors linked by land transport.

i) The war will get very boring with each side running out of things to do fairly quickly, at the same time, the difficulty of coming to terms could delay any formal peace treaty or armistice for a long-period of time. Both countries will have lobbies for restoring "business as usual" but the German lobbying for such will be more desperate.
 
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