I think the idea is that it would be traded back for occupied NATO territory.
And To Think It Might Have Happened: A Ukraine War Timeline
- Thread starter Star Eater
- Start date
I think the idea is that it would be traded back for occupied NATO territory.
MadFrog
Banned
Well, it will depend on how far Putin will be ready to go. In principle, it can be even more large-scale war, besides Russian can mobilize a very large army.
cubefreak123
Banned
I wonder how good the OP's map making skills are...
Also, I took a look at the size of a few major air forces and found that Russia would be in a position akin to Germany in WWII, they can field a lot of units initially but they can't take the same losses. The US alone has over 2x the personnel than their Russian counterparts while the Polish, French, and UK all stand at about 40k each. Add in that Russian air forces are moving on NATO territory and each plane shot down may not result in the pilot making it back while each NATO plane taken down has a better chance of the pilot making it back in the air. This is all to say nothing of the quality advantage too.
The Russians may have superior numbers on land but the air situation has them numerically and technologically outmatched. I'm not sure how NATO AA compares to Russian AA but even if they're even that's bad news for Moscow.
Also, I took a look at the size of a few major air forces and found that Russia would be in a position akin to Germany in WWII, they can field a lot of units initially but they can't take the same losses. The US alone has over 2x the personnel than their Russian counterparts while the Polish, French, and UK all stand at about 40k each. Add in that Russian air forces are moving on NATO territory and each plane shot down may not result in the pilot making it back while each NATO plane taken down has a better chance of the pilot making it back in the air. This is all to say nothing of the quality advantage too.
The Russians may have superior numbers on land but the air situation has them numerically and technologically outmatched. I'm not sure how NATO AA compares to Russian AA but even if they're even that's bad news for Moscow.
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April 14 – April 24: The Battle of Riga
At the State Department in Washington, the North Korean mobilisation was receiving almost as much attention as the actual war in Europe. Secretary of State John Kerry found himself in regular contact with Park Geun-hye, President of South Korea, as Washington studied the situation on the divided peninsula with unblinking interest. U.S. satellites had for years maintained constant surveillance of Kim Jong-un’s isolated hermit kingdom, and the events on the ground had no hope of going unnoticed. This was why there was no attempt to hide them; we know from former Vice Marshal Ri Yong Mu, a member of the National Defence Commission, that the North Korean Supreme Leader, thirty one year old Kim Jong-un, had reacted to the war in Europe with anxiety. Rather than seeing it as an opportunity to strike at South Korea unhindered, he was far more sure that the United States would take the war as an excuse to strike at North Korea first, and that he could hope for no help from a Russia far too distracted by events elsewhere. On April 11, he had met with the Russian Ambassador and received little in the way of helpful words. The Ambassador had been ordered by Moscow not to promise a single thing to Pyongyang, but instead to feel around for the mood of the Supreme Leader. The problem for Russia was that they knew their ability to supply a North Korean invasion was shaky at best; U.S. airstrikes would surely arrive and cut off the routes across their tiny border. North Korea could then only turn to China for help, and if they gave it then a Northern victory would benefit China far more. They would surely command enough influence on Pyongyang to effectively turn them into a satellite state. The one benefit was that a war in East Asia would draw American resources elsewhere, but if China became involved then it risked all the economic assistance from the People’s Republic evaporating as they focused on keeping themselves standing. While many in the West assumed that Russia would be more than happy to support North Korea, in truth Moscow faced a grim dilemma. But on April 13, President Putin took the risk of leaving his Siberian command centre and flying personally to Pyongyang. Unnoticed by Western intelligence, he hinted to an almost “starstruck,” in the words of Ri Yong Mu, Kim Jong-un that an attack on South Korea would receive his full economic support.
In practical terms, this meant “all the oil your tanks can drink,” along with arms shipments and training for the Korean People’s Army (KPA) from Russian officers. Preparing the KPA for battle would take time, and Putin needed the Western resources to be sucked into East Asia immediately. And so he convinced Kim to order an immediate mobilisation, to prepare his troops for the coming battle. Such a battle would not happen yet but, if the KPA remained at a high state of readiness for long enough, perhaps the South Koreans and Americans would grow used to it and still be taken by surprise. So it was that the mobilisation began on April 14. The first American military response was to order the aircraft carriers George Washington and Abraham Lincoln, both stationed in the Sea of Japan, to begin extensive bombing of the small strip of land which connected North Korea to Russia, between the border and Vladivostok. As these commenced, everything down to the smallest footpath received GBU-12s, reducing the area to an extensive field of muddy craters. No Russian aircraft rose to meet them, but the Americans regularly reported being shadowed by Chinese fighters just over the border. But within a day, news came through from Western intelligence assets in China that unmarked military supplies were moving across into Manchuria, and then heading into North Korea. Taking place on Chinese territory, they were out of the American’s reach, and protests to the Chinese Ambassador in Washington simply produced denials. It seemed to the Americans that China was actively taking part in preparing North Korea for war, but behind the scenes a diplomatic row was brewing with Russia. China had no desire for a war in Korea, but they reluctantly agreed to the resupply on the condition that North Korea only act defensively. The South Korean military went to high alert and, facing the prospect of a two front war, President Obama called for an additional 400,000 men and women to sign up for service. But it would take weeks for new recruits to be ready for service, even as the 530,000 who had signed up in the last week went through basic training. In private, he was seriously considering asking Congress to bring in the draft. Polls showed that such a request would pass, but on a personal level he had trouble accepting its necessity despite the encouragement of the Joint Chiefs. In the meantime Camp Pendleton, California, was almost emptied out as Marine units were airlifted en-masse to Korea including the bulk of the 1st Marine Division. But how could Obama be sure about this? What if it was just a Russian bluff?
Before returning to Europe, it is worth mentioning wartime events elsewhere. On April 16, a single modified RIM-161 anti-ballistic missile was launched in the Pacific by the U.S. Navy cruiser Bunker Hill. Entering low-orbit, it impacted and destroyed the Russian electronic signals intelligence (ELINT) satellite, Kosmos 2406, in history’s first example of space warfare. The RIM-161 was already being redeveloped by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) as they investigated its ability to shoot down Russian ICBMs. The shooting down of Kosmos 2406 was a significant step, and gave the West a chance to step ahead by knocking out Russia’s eyes and ears. China, growing increasingly anxious, watched quietly. Elsewhere in the Pacific, the Australian Navy scored its first victory when a Seahawk helicopter from the frigate HMAS Warramunga tracked and sunk a Russian submarine off Norfolk Island. One other submarine was sunk north of Hawaii, when it was forced to surface after an engine failure. Quickly spotted, it was attacked by a patrolling Super Hornet and sunk with a single missile to its hull. Meanwhile in the Atlantic, the Russian Northern Fleet were withdrawing to the Barents Sea as additional U.S. Navy force arrived in the area. No sea combat took place between April 14 and April 25 in this particular place.
In Europe, there was no uncertainty about what was going on. On the morning of April 15, Russian troops were at the gates of Riga. Facing them was a battle hardened NATO defence, mostly comprised of American, British, and French units, all assigned to different sectors of the city. Along the banks of the Daugava, where debris floated by constantly amid the demolition of every bridge, the line stretched across southern Latvia, an iron curtain that would hold the Russians back come what may. In the east, the situation was less dire; NATO units were well ahead of the Daugava, with the gains from the counteroffensive that had begun on April 6. Some were as far north as the town of Madona, which had been reduced to rubble no larger than a man’s fist amid days of fighting. Some ground had been lost in Russian counterattacks, but the line held firm. However, even as Western soldiers glared north towards the Russian lines, it was obvious to all that the battle would not be decided here. It would be Riga. Sooner or later, the NATO units in eastern Latvia would have to be pulled towards the capital, and the land on which so much blood had been spilled to keep free would be left for the Russian tricolour. A second counteroffensive to draw Russian forces away from Riga was discussed at length in Washington, London, and Brussels, but it would be a lost cause. They could not hope for the necessary re-supply. People across the Western world anxiously awaited news on the Battle of Riga as it lumbered slowly towards them, knowing well that it would be costly on a scale that far outweighed recent experiences such as Fallujah or, looking further back, Huế. Awaiting the battle, U.S. forces made their first strikes on the Russian mainland when B-2 bombers struck at the airfields at Pskov and Ostrov, both of which lay close to the Estonian border. But it was all just a warm up for the next act. It would be a fight to the death.
It began at six in the evening, on April 15. At least forty BM-21s, truck-mounted 122 mm multiple rocket launchers designed in the early sixties, opened up on the capital from open farmland in the northeast. The darkening sky was lit up by the ominous glow of hundreds of orange rockets as they curved their way towards a city awaiting its fate. They struck indiscriminately, saturating sectors of the city on the eastern side of the Daugava. Arena Riga, an indoor arena with a capacity for 14,500 people, was packed with 30,000 civilians awaiting airborne evacuation. For the last three days, American and British helicopters had been evacuating the city’s residents with the roads too unsafe to travel, while airborne escape offered a quicker route into Lithuania. Several rockets struck the arena on that night, causing it to partially collapse while flames roared through one end of the stands, crammed as they were with frightened civilians. Amid the chaos of rockets falling all around, the troops in the area could only watch from foxholes, bunkers, and shattered buildings, unable to get to the arena without risking themselves. Orders went out to stay put, and firefighting equipment was not risked. The bombing went on, blasting building after building to pieces and pummeling the American sector as the soldiers tried to weather it.
It went on for two hours.
Almost mercifully, the enemy arrived. The first were infantry from Uzbekistan, who began to swarm into the Northern District accompanied by BTRs and BMPs. U.S. troops, many of them a mishmash of units from the 3rd Infantry Division, U.S. Army, were stationed within the woodlands through which the Uzbek infantry poured in. Heavy fighting soon erupted amongst the thick woodland, but the Americans were able to hold the line and repulse what were effectively human wave attacks. Taking few casualties of their own, the Americans reported to Riga that they were having little trouble. Forested areas covered much of the eastern border with the city, and they acted as a natural barrier to prevent a mechanised assault. Only when the roads through the woods had been secured could armour begin to move up, and even then those roads were heavily mined. U.S. Air Force A-10s along with RAF Tornadoes began striking at Russian artillery and rocket batteries, but there were not enough to prevent the next Russian saturation strike. This time, it targeted the woodlands. Throughout the forests, amid gunfire and constant firefights against approaching Uzbek cannon fodder, the American soldiers received the word to leap for the ground. Soon, rockets and shells were landing all around. Trees shattered, while whole areas cleared to be replaced with craters. Despite taking losses, the line held. The Americans held on, proving their metal as they repulsed attack after attack by Uzbek troops even amidst the chaos of falling shells. While NATO aircraft tried to pick the artillery off, they found themselves dogged by black Su-34s which sliced through the sky and knocked out numerous Western aircraft. The Fullbacks bombed defensive positions within the city, taking few of their own losses, while the Americans in the woods found themselves under heavier attack on the ground as the weak points of their lines were found. As the day ended and April 16 arrived, the skies burst open and began cascading heavy rain onto much of the southern Baltics. The terrain soon turned muddy, taking the offensive even more difficult, while aircraft found themselves less able to identify targets. After six hours, the Russians had been unable to penetrate even the initial defensive line of the city. As the deluge turned into a thunderstorm, the defenders were ever more convinced that they could hold on. Encouraging word was coming through from the west that a counteroffensive could be on the way as fresh troops from the States arrived in Lithuania. For the Russians, it was clear that the tide could potentially turn. The Baltic Fleet was ready to land on Riga’s coast, but they couldn’t be certain of how strong Western defences were in the area, and the fleet’s landing ships were too valuable to waste.
April 16 was defined by numerous probing attacks into the woodlands, some more successful than others, but none achieving a decisive breakthrough. The main highway into Riga from the northeast was contested, along with a railway depot. The main stopped by the time the sun came up, and the sky began to clear. At Salaspils, on the northern bank of the Daugava, the town had been under Russian control but was retaken when 5th Battalion, The Rifles, British Army launched an attack with the deaths of five of their number, for fifteen Russians and a T-72. There was hope yet for the fortress that was Riga. And then, at around nine, NATO air-defence spotted seven Su-25s flying in low, approaching the woodlands from the north. They banked hard and roared right over an area of the NATO defences which numerous probing attacks had identified as one of the weaker points, dropping canisters as they did so. Over the woods, these canisters exploded. Napalm sliced through the trees, creating an inferno that stuck to everything it touched. The casualties were, predictably, catastrophic. 96 American men and women perished in the ancient Latvian woods, some burning to death while others had the breath sucked from their lungs. The offensive was quickly restarted, with Uzbek and Russian infantry charging right into the points at which the napalm had struck. With a huge hole open in the defensive lines, they broke through, and the defenders were forced to scramble back towards the city.
Exiting the woods, the attackers were greeted by huge, imposing apartment buildings which burned out of control. The Russians broke through a weak secondary defensive line which was meant to be reinforce by retreating units in the woods. They swarmed right into the city centre, whole columns of armoured vehicles amongst legions of infantry, as the battle began in earnest. American armoured vehicles, Bradleys outfitted with anti-tank weapons, sheltered inside half-collapsed buildings and picked off BMPs as they rounded corners. Every street was fought for, as the NATO units slowly fell back. Just outside the city, a B-2 bomber dropped a single GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast, or MOAB, onto a suspected Russian mobile command and control centre, just as much for the psychological effect on the Russians as the strategic effect. The massive explosion from the most powerful non-nuclear weapon in America’s arsenal could be seen across the city, and shattered windows while leaving a once-wooded area completely barren. As the battle wore on, every street was a mash of rubble, ancient and glorious buildings twisted into trash, an entire city turned grey with dust and ash while fires ripped through structures on all sides. In the neighbourhood of Avoti, British troops from The Royal Welsh defended an intersection surrounded by ancient wooden and stone buildings that dated back centuries. Under increasingly heavy fire and taking casualties as BMPs rolled towards them, shadows were suddenly cast over the streets as Apaches from the British Army Air Corps swept overhead, saturating the Russian positions with rockets. Elsewhere, a pair of Dutch snipers hidden in a church tower killed no less than eighteen Russian soldiers before a rocket from an Mi-28 attack helicopter obliterated the church. These were the stories of a human tragedy, as ancient Riga was demolished once again.
It lasted for eight days. By April 24, the battle would have ended with NATO evacuating the city, with casualties appallingly high, leaving Riga burning in the distance. Too many men were returning home covered by their nation’s flag. Too many hearses were on Western streets. Strips of southern Latvia remained under NATO’s control, but there was no question of what had happened. The war was not over, and yet it seemed like Russia was victorious already. President Putin even emerged from his bunker in Siberia and returned to Moscow. There, he called for peace with the West, offering to spare Lithuania as a token of goodwill, despite it being “complicit in crimes against the Russian people.” What these crimes were, only he seemed to know. The Western response was quick; a B-2 Spirit dropped cluster bombs on Moscow Domodedovo Airport, Russia’s largest airport, devastating it. It would have been a resounding victory, were it not for the B-2's shooting down just before it cleared Russian airspace, lost to a missile guided by ultra low-frequency radar, which had come from China. The Spirit struggled on for a brief period, before its left wing snapped off and she tumbled into the Baltic, within Swedish waters.
NATO would fight on, to the very end.
At the State Department in Washington, the North Korean mobilisation was receiving almost as much attention as the actual war in Europe. Secretary of State John Kerry found himself in regular contact with Park Geun-hye, President of South Korea, as Washington studied the situation on the divided peninsula with unblinking interest. U.S. satellites had for years maintained constant surveillance of Kim Jong-un’s isolated hermit kingdom, and the events on the ground had no hope of going unnoticed. This was why there was no attempt to hide them; we know from former Vice Marshal Ri Yong Mu, a member of the National Defence Commission, that the North Korean Supreme Leader, thirty one year old Kim Jong-un, had reacted to the war in Europe with anxiety. Rather than seeing it as an opportunity to strike at South Korea unhindered, he was far more sure that the United States would take the war as an excuse to strike at North Korea first, and that he could hope for no help from a Russia far too distracted by events elsewhere. On April 11, he had met with the Russian Ambassador and received little in the way of helpful words. The Ambassador had been ordered by Moscow not to promise a single thing to Pyongyang, but instead to feel around for the mood of the Supreme Leader. The problem for Russia was that they knew their ability to supply a North Korean invasion was shaky at best; U.S. airstrikes would surely arrive and cut off the routes across their tiny border. North Korea could then only turn to China for help, and if they gave it then a Northern victory would benefit China far more. They would surely command enough influence on Pyongyang to effectively turn them into a satellite state. The one benefit was that a war in East Asia would draw American resources elsewhere, but if China became involved then it risked all the economic assistance from the People’s Republic evaporating as they focused on keeping themselves standing. While many in the West assumed that Russia would be more than happy to support North Korea, in truth Moscow faced a grim dilemma. But on April 13, President Putin took the risk of leaving his Siberian command centre and flying personally to Pyongyang. Unnoticed by Western intelligence, he hinted to an almost “starstruck,” in the words of Ri Yong Mu, Kim Jong-un that an attack on South Korea would receive his full economic support.
In practical terms, this meant “all the oil your tanks can drink,” along with arms shipments and training for the Korean People’s Army (KPA) from Russian officers. Preparing the KPA for battle would take time, and Putin needed the Western resources to be sucked into East Asia immediately. And so he convinced Kim to order an immediate mobilisation, to prepare his troops for the coming battle. Such a battle would not happen yet but, if the KPA remained at a high state of readiness for long enough, perhaps the South Koreans and Americans would grow used to it and still be taken by surprise. So it was that the mobilisation began on April 14. The first American military response was to order the aircraft carriers George Washington and Abraham Lincoln, both stationed in the Sea of Japan, to begin extensive bombing of the small strip of land which connected North Korea to Russia, between the border and Vladivostok. As these commenced, everything down to the smallest footpath received GBU-12s, reducing the area to an extensive field of muddy craters. No Russian aircraft rose to meet them, but the Americans regularly reported being shadowed by Chinese fighters just over the border. But within a day, news came through from Western intelligence assets in China that unmarked military supplies were moving across into Manchuria, and then heading into North Korea. Taking place on Chinese territory, they were out of the American’s reach, and protests to the Chinese Ambassador in Washington simply produced denials. It seemed to the Americans that China was actively taking part in preparing North Korea for war, but behind the scenes a diplomatic row was brewing with Russia. China had no desire for a war in Korea, but they reluctantly agreed to the resupply on the condition that North Korea only act defensively. The South Korean military went to high alert and, facing the prospect of a two front war, President Obama called for an additional 400,000 men and women to sign up for service. But it would take weeks for new recruits to be ready for service, even as the 530,000 who had signed up in the last week went through basic training. In private, he was seriously considering asking Congress to bring in the draft. Polls showed that such a request would pass, but on a personal level he had trouble accepting its necessity despite the encouragement of the Joint Chiefs. In the meantime Camp Pendleton, California, was almost emptied out as Marine units were airlifted en-masse to Korea including the bulk of the 1st Marine Division. But how could Obama be sure about this? What if it was just a Russian bluff?
Before returning to Europe, it is worth mentioning wartime events elsewhere. On April 16, a single modified RIM-161 anti-ballistic missile was launched in the Pacific by the U.S. Navy cruiser Bunker Hill. Entering low-orbit, it impacted and destroyed the Russian electronic signals intelligence (ELINT) satellite, Kosmos 2406, in history’s first example of space warfare. The RIM-161 was already being redeveloped by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) as they investigated its ability to shoot down Russian ICBMs. The shooting down of Kosmos 2406 was a significant step, and gave the West a chance to step ahead by knocking out Russia’s eyes and ears. China, growing increasingly anxious, watched quietly. Elsewhere in the Pacific, the Australian Navy scored its first victory when a Seahawk helicopter from the frigate HMAS Warramunga tracked and sunk a Russian submarine off Norfolk Island. One other submarine was sunk north of Hawaii, when it was forced to surface after an engine failure. Quickly spotted, it was attacked by a patrolling Super Hornet and sunk with a single missile to its hull. Meanwhile in the Atlantic, the Russian Northern Fleet were withdrawing to the Barents Sea as additional U.S. Navy force arrived in the area. No sea combat took place between April 14 and April 25 in this particular place.
In Europe, there was no uncertainty about what was going on. On the morning of April 15, Russian troops were at the gates of Riga. Facing them was a battle hardened NATO defence, mostly comprised of American, British, and French units, all assigned to different sectors of the city. Along the banks of the Daugava, where debris floated by constantly amid the demolition of every bridge, the line stretched across southern Latvia, an iron curtain that would hold the Russians back come what may. In the east, the situation was less dire; NATO units were well ahead of the Daugava, with the gains from the counteroffensive that had begun on April 6. Some were as far north as the town of Madona, which had been reduced to rubble no larger than a man’s fist amid days of fighting. Some ground had been lost in Russian counterattacks, but the line held firm. However, even as Western soldiers glared north towards the Russian lines, it was obvious to all that the battle would not be decided here. It would be Riga. Sooner or later, the NATO units in eastern Latvia would have to be pulled towards the capital, and the land on which so much blood had been spilled to keep free would be left for the Russian tricolour. A second counteroffensive to draw Russian forces away from Riga was discussed at length in Washington, London, and Brussels, but it would be a lost cause. They could not hope for the necessary re-supply. People across the Western world anxiously awaited news on the Battle of Riga as it lumbered slowly towards them, knowing well that it would be costly on a scale that far outweighed recent experiences such as Fallujah or, looking further back, Huế. Awaiting the battle, U.S. forces made their first strikes on the Russian mainland when B-2 bombers struck at the airfields at Pskov and Ostrov, both of which lay close to the Estonian border. But it was all just a warm up for the next act. It would be a fight to the death.
It began at six in the evening, on April 15. At least forty BM-21s, truck-mounted 122 mm multiple rocket launchers designed in the early sixties, opened up on the capital from open farmland in the northeast. The darkening sky was lit up by the ominous glow of hundreds of orange rockets as they curved their way towards a city awaiting its fate. They struck indiscriminately, saturating sectors of the city on the eastern side of the Daugava. Arena Riga, an indoor arena with a capacity for 14,500 people, was packed with 30,000 civilians awaiting airborne evacuation. For the last three days, American and British helicopters had been evacuating the city’s residents with the roads too unsafe to travel, while airborne escape offered a quicker route into Lithuania. Several rockets struck the arena on that night, causing it to partially collapse while flames roared through one end of the stands, crammed as they were with frightened civilians. Amid the chaos of rockets falling all around, the troops in the area could only watch from foxholes, bunkers, and shattered buildings, unable to get to the arena without risking themselves. Orders went out to stay put, and firefighting equipment was not risked. The bombing went on, blasting building after building to pieces and pummeling the American sector as the soldiers tried to weather it.
It went on for two hours.
Almost mercifully, the enemy arrived. The first were infantry from Uzbekistan, who began to swarm into the Northern District accompanied by BTRs and BMPs. U.S. troops, many of them a mishmash of units from the 3rd Infantry Division, U.S. Army, were stationed within the woodlands through which the Uzbek infantry poured in. Heavy fighting soon erupted amongst the thick woodland, but the Americans were able to hold the line and repulse what were effectively human wave attacks. Taking few casualties of their own, the Americans reported to Riga that they were having little trouble. Forested areas covered much of the eastern border with the city, and they acted as a natural barrier to prevent a mechanised assault. Only when the roads through the woods had been secured could armour begin to move up, and even then those roads were heavily mined. U.S. Air Force A-10s along with RAF Tornadoes began striking at Russian artillery and rocket batteries, but there were not enough to prevent the next Russian saturation strike. This time, it targeted the woodlands. Throughout the forests, amid gunfire and constant firefights against approaching Uzbek cannon fodder, the American soldiers received the word to leap for the ground. Soon, rockets and shells were landing all around. Trees shattered, while whole areas cleared to be replaced with craters. Despite taking losses, the line held. The Americans held on, proving their metal as they repulsed attack after attack by Uzbek troops even amidst the chaos of falling shells. While NATO aircraft tried to pick the artillery off, they found themselves dogged by black Su-34s which sliced through the sky and knocked out numerous Western aircraft. The Fullbacks bombed defensive positions within the city, taking few of their own losses, while the Americans in the woods found themselves under heavier attack on the ground as the weak points of their lines were found. As the day ended and April 16 arrived, the skies burst open and began cascading heavy rain onto much of the southern Baltics. The terrain soon turned muddy, taking the offensive even more difficult, while aircraft found themselves less able to identify targets. After six hours, the Russians had been unable to penetrate even the initial defensive line of the city. As the deluge turned into a thunderstorm, the defenders were ever more convinced that they could hold on. Encouraging word was coming through from the west that a counteroffensive could be on the way as fresh troops from the States arrived in Lithuania. For the Russians, it was clear that the tide could potentially turn. The Baltic Fleet was ready to land on Riga’s coast, but they couldn’t be certain of how strong Western defences were in the area, and the fleet’s landing ships were too valuable to waste.
April 16 was defined by numerous probing attacks into the woodlands, some more successful than others, but none achieving a decisive breakthrough. The main highway into Riga from the northeast was contested, along with a railway depot. The main stopped by the time the sun came up, and the sky began to clear. At Salaspils, on the northern bank of the Daugava, the town had been under Russian control but was retaken when 5th Battalion, The Rifles, British Army launched an attack with the deaths of five of their number, for fifteen Russians and a T-72. There was hope yet for the fortress that was Riga. And then, at around nine, NATO air-defence spotted seven Su-25s flying in low, approaching the woodlands from the north. They banked hard and roared right over an area of the NATO defences which numerous probing attacks had identified as one of the weaker points, dropping canisters as they did so. Over the woods, these canisters exploded. Napalm sliced through the trees, creating an inferno that stuck to everything it touched. The casualties were, predictably, catastrophic. 96 American men and women perished in the ancient Latvian woods, some burning to death while others had the breath sucked from their lungs. The offensive was quickly restarted, with Uzbek and Russian infantry charging right into the points at which the napalm had struck. With a huge hole open in the defensive lines, they broke through, and the defenders were forced to scramble back towards the city.
Exiting the woods, the attackers were greeted by huge, imposing apartment buildings which burned out of control. The Russians broke through a weak secondary defensive line which was meant to be reinforce by retreating units in the woods. They swarmed right into the city centre, whole columns of armoured vehicles amongst legions of infantry, as the battle began in earnest. American armoured vehicles, Bradleys outfitted with anti-tank weapons, sheltered inside half-collapsed buildings and picked off BMPs as they rounded corners. Every street was fought for, as the NATO units slowly fell back. Just outside the city, a B-2 bomber dropped a single GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast, or MOAB, onto a suspected Russian mobile command and control centre, just as much for the psychological effect on the Russians as the strategic effect. The massive explosion from the most powerful non-nuclear weapon in America’s arsenal could be seen across the city, and shattered windows while leaving a once-wooded area completely barren. As the battle wore on, every street was a mash of rubble, ancient and glorious buildings twisted into trash, an entire city turned grey with dust and ash while fires ripped through structures on all sides. In the neighbourhood of Avoti, British troops from The Royal Welsh defended an intersection surrounded by ancient wooden and stone buildings that dated back centuries. Under increasingly heavy fire and taking casualties as BMPs rolled towards them, shadows were suddenly cast over the streets as Apaches from the British Army Air Corps swept overhead, saturating the Russian positions with rockets. Elsewhere, a pair of Dutch snipers hidden in a church tower killed no less than eighteen Russian soldiers before a rocket from an Mi-28 attack helicopter obliterated the church. These were the stories of a human tragedy, as ancient Riga was demolished once again.
It lasted for eight days. By April 24, the battle would have ended with NATO evacuating the city, with casualties appallingly high, leaving Riga burning in the distance. Too many men were returning home covered by their nation’s flag. Too many hearses were on Western streets. Strips of southern Latvia remained under NATO’s control, but there was no question of what had happened. The war was not over, and yet it seemed like Russia was victorious already. President Putin even emerged from his bunker in Siberia and returned to Moscow. There, he called for peace with the West, offering to spare Lithuania as a token of goodwill, despite it being “complicit in crimes against the Russian people.” What these crimes were, only he seemed to know. The Western response was quick; a B-2 Spirit dropped cluster bombs on Moscow Domodedovo Airport, Russia’s largest airport, devastating it. It would have been a resounding victory, were it not for the B-2's shooting down just before it cleared Russian airspace, lost to a missile guided by ultra low-frequency radar, which had come from China. The Spirit struggled on for a brief period, before its left wing snapped off and she tumbled into the Baltic, within Swedish waters.
NATO would fight on, to the very end.
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Do let me know if the description of the Battle of Riga is a bit shabby; it kinda felt that way at times. Describing urban battles isn't my strong point, not by a long shot. Anyway, expect a second update before Christmas.
If B-2s can get all the way to Moscow, I would imagine headhunting for Putin and his inner circle is in order.
Do any NATO states still have chemical weapons? Going nuclear risks ending very, very badly, but if someone finds some old nerve gas shells in a bunker somewhere, tit-for-tat.
Do any NATO states still have chemical weapons? Going nuclear risks ending very, very badly, but if someone finds some old nerve gas shells in a bunker somewhere, tit-for-tat.
Alright, as enjoyable as this is, Russia going full chemical warfare on NATO would be very, very bad for Russia. They'd instantly become a pariah state, the rest of the world would quickly join in against them, and China, which had been neutral-positive towards Moscow, would jump ship.
Furthermore, there is no way that Russia, not China, would be the ones to influence the Norks to make a move South. North Korea lives and dies at China's behest, and if they said "Hey buddy, cool it", they'd cool it right then and there.
So yeah, this is a fun yarn, but rapidly spinning into post-fall-of-the-USSR-Tom-Clancy territory. Enjoyable, but as plausible as me dating Scarlett Johansson.
Furthermore, there is no way that Russia, not China, would be the ones to influence the Norks to make a move South. North Korea lives and dies at China's behest, and if they said "Hey buddy, cool it", they'd cool it right then and there.
So yeah, this is a fun yarn, but rapidly spinning into post-fall-of-the-USSR-Tom-Clancy territory. Enjoyable, but as plausible as me dating Scarlett Johansson.
The gas thing was a bit much, especially since they might not have even needed it.
I could imagine the Russians going WMD if Russia itself is invaded in any significant way, but not over this.
I could imagine the Russians going WMD if Russia itself is invaded in any significant way, but not over this.
Yeah. The Russians MAYBE would let the chemical genie out of the bottle if it looked like they were going to lose ground in Russia itself, but going full Assad right off the bat over Latvia stretches this TL's already stretched plausibility to the breaking point.
Not exactly.
NK doesn't listen to China, it barely does only because its lifeline(oil, etc) depends on China.
NK absolutely listens to China, and China absolutely exerts serious control over NK. If it really looked like the Norks were going to make a move on the DMZ, China would almost certainly step in and engineer a coup. They also would not let the Russians go behind their backs and spur the North Koreans onto a war that they will almost certainly lose, and one that could very well result in US bases on the Yalu, which is basically their nightmare scenario.
If SE doesn't want to retcon the chemical-weapons use, perhaps he could make it the work of a rogue officer that Putin turns over to NATO for war-crimes purposes as part of his "peace offensive"?
(Of course, the bombing of Moscow's airport shows that's already failed, so it'd require a retcon anyway.)
Of all the Baltic states, which are the biggest dicks toward their Russophone minorities? If it's Latvia and Estonia, Putin could justify his actions by claiming he's punishing the guilty ones.
(Of course, the bombing of Moscow's airport shows that's already failed, so it'd require a retcon anyway.)
Of all the Baltic states, which are the biggest dicks toward their Russophone minorities? If it's Latvia and Estonia, Putin could justify his actions by claiming he's punishing the guilty ones.
guess you missed out on the discussions we had.
This is a quote from Realpolitik in the thread that I'd like to point to:
Excellent update – suitably harrowing. Keep it coming!
As to the comments made by other posters concerning the use of gas, I’m afraid that I agree with them; its very unlikely that Russia would resort to special weapons at this stage, which is, lets face it, still very early on in Operation Scythe. If it has gone so badly wrong at this point in the campaign that Russia has no choice but to resort to gas, then, well, Russia is in enormous trouble & I expect nukes any minute now.
However - it is not impossible. If Putin is prepared to disavow / reprimand the officer who ordered it then it could be politically acceptable – moreover, this could even be an integral part of Scythe all along (ie achieve a quick victory at any price – and if necessary the KGB provides some poor scapegoat to be blamed – and speedily executed - for ‘exceeding their orders’ to mollify public opinion in the west).
That said, this could store up longer-term problems for Putin, as I’m convinced that the regular Russian army would be overjoyed at being publicly reprimanded for a massacre that they had been specifically ordered to do…
As to the comments made by other posters concerning the use of gas, I’m afraid that I agree with them; its very unlikely that Russia would resort to special weapons at this stage, which is, lets face it, still very early on in Operation Scythe. If it has gone so badly wrong at this point in the campaign that Russia has no choice but to resort to gas, then, well, Russia is in enormous trouble & I expect nukes any minute now.
However - it is not impossible. If Putin is prepared to disavow / reprimand the officer who ordered it then it could be politically acceptable – moreover, this could even be an integral part of Scythe all along (ie achieve a quick victory at any price – and if necessary the KGB provides some poor scapegoat to be blamed – and speedily executed - for ‘exceeding their orders’ to mollify public opinion in the west).
That said, this could store up longer-term problems for Putin, as I’m convinced that the regular Russian army would be overjoyed at being publicly reprimanded for a massacre that they had been specifically ordered to do…
