And Now, For Something A Little Different: The Jupiter Timeline

Chapter 0: A Goldmine
Hey all. I have recently been motivated and inspired to finally get around to writing that space story I've always wanted to write. Between rediscovering an old rocket (and subsequently realizing I quite enjoyed its looks), and being frustrated with the now impossibility of a 2024 lunar return, in March, I threw out the idea to a small few of a new timeline. This would be a timeline where we return to the Moon before 2020, where there are no commercial lander shenanigans, where SLS isn't several years late (still love SLS, my baby), a timeline where, in fact, SLS is not needed at all, because something else was already on the horizon...

So. A quick few things before we begin.
1) While I try to maintain realism, things that I find just cool enough may get enough points to still make it in, even if they're slightly unrealistic.
2) Similarly, while I try to back up my work with research, I can only do so much. Cut some slack.
3) In the same vein as 2, I always aim to bring my best work. Have patience, and forgive any errors.
4) This is my work. If you'd like to use it, borrow it, modify it, whatever, please message me, and if you receive permission, credit me. I'll be doing the same for anything I borrow, modify, or use.

To that end! The following 'doc' features images and formatting that has either been modified or taken from the following NASA documents.
Images (modified and unmodified):
- After LM: NASA Lunar Lander Concepts Beyond Apollo
- Safer, Simpler, Sooner - Than Ares
Formatting:
- Human Exploration of Mars Design Reference Architecture 5.0

Additionally, a big thank you to defconh3ck of Proxima fame for help with the title, reviewing the doc, and being a continued soundboard for ideas. I know I'm not the first to receive help, so it is appreciated all the more. Their work is super awesome, so check it out if you haven't already.
And finally, a HUGE thank you to AstroEvada for the Jupiter patch! They did this off of a very blurry screenshot from the Safer Simpler pdf, and just for kindness sake! Expect to see it a lot. I must say, I am quite fond of it...

If you'd also like to contribute, message me. I'd be honored!

Now, with that out of the way, I must say one more thing (just in case).

The following document is a work of fiction. It does not exist. I made it, and therefore it has not been taken from any NASA archives. Alright? Good.

NOW. Let us begin.

. . .

Been a while. This time I've got a new doc, leaked straight out of NASA. This one's a goldmine. I have no clue how they're going to get the funding for this through Congress, even though they said Jupiter would be significantly cheaper. Excited to see where this goes. I'll have something else in the next few weeks again- my informant says it's being finished up. Until next time. - A.
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NASA/SP–2008–738

Human Lunar Exploration Architectures


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July 17, 2008

Lunar Architecture Steering Group
NASA Headquarters

John C. Barns, editor
NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________​
1 Introduction
The NASA Authorization Act of 2005 called NASA to “develop a sustained human presence on the Moon, including a robust precursor program, to promote exploration, science, commerce, and United States preeminence in space, and as a stepping-stone to future exploration of Mars and other destinations.” In support of these goals, the Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS) was carried out in an effort to define the launch vehicles of the program that could carry out such an objective. Similarly, the Lunar Architecture Team (LAT) studied methods of Lunar surface exploration as part of preparation for crewed Mars missions.

Since then, the ever increasing scope, scale, and thus cost of the vehicles originally outlined in ESAS has caused NASA to pivot to Jupiter DIRECT, to allow the Lunar program to be delivered on time, and on budget. To this end, the LAT has reconvened as the Lunar Architecture Steering Group (LASG) to reassess the concepts originally outlined, and to adapt them for the new vehicle, while still maintaining as many of the original goals as outlined.

The switch to Jupiter DIRECT brought a new motto to NASA: Safer, Simpler, Sooner. These ideas are allowing the Administration to better pursue exploration efforts, by refocusing on what was originally important to ensure the program is able to make it to the operational phase. These cultural changes have been adapted to LASG, and were kept in mind when reevaluating the originally outlined concepts.

LASG now presents these refined concepts, confident that they hold the potential to provide the United States with Lunar access before 2020, while maintaining cost-effectiveness and safety, and laying strong foundations for future human exploration of deep space.


2 DIRECT Capabilities
Jupiter DIRECT, even in its largest configuration, 244, will not have the TLI performance of the former Ares V rocket. However, the Constellation program required two launches to complete the lunar stack for TLI; Jupiter DIRECT will similarly require two launches, and in this manner it matches Ares V’s lunar performance.

DIRECT also, through this methodology, could allow for large hardware aggregation in Cislunar space. The dual launches also provide a framework by which large scale probes, telescopes, and other instruments may be sent to other bodies in the Solar System.

STS ET production showed that Michoud Assembly Facility could produce nearly 12 tanks a year at peak rates, before running into storage issues. While largely similar to the ET, the addition of Jupiter’s engine section does increase production time slightly. Peak production rates are expected to reach 8 cores a year, after an approximately 8-year ramp up phase following the initial three flights. The Dual Launch architecture can thus support 4 lunar missions each year. Some studies have indicated a possibility to bring partial reuse to Jupiter, allowing increased flight rates of up to 12 a year. While current projections do not show this to be a critical need of the Lunar and Martian architectures currently under study, the possibility remains open.

Jupiter DIRECT, while simpler, will allow the same mission classes and profiles as the Ares family of launch vehicles. DIRECT additionally allows flex capability to help build Earth SOI infrastructure, and stay sustainable into the future.


3 Lunar Architectures
Prior to down selection and refinement of architectures, LASG allowed a period to introduce any new possibilities that may have arisen with the final selection of Jupiter 244 as the Lunar SHLLV. LASG noted one architecture in particular suggesting the possibility of using a ‘single stack’ Jupiter 244 for initial landings.

Such a mission would involve co-manifesting a lander very similar in weight and size to the Apollo LEM on a Jupiter 244 with Orion. This lander was notionally referred to as the Light Lunar Lander (LLL) within the study. While the J244 variant is expected to be able to place a payload of approximately 41 mT through TLI, and the combined Orion-LLL stack was expected to weigh no more than 40 mT, neither LLL nor Orion would have the performance to perform LOI and their other respective functions. Thus, this plan was scrapped from becoming the “Phase 0” of the 2-Phase architecture.

Instead, both 1-Phase and 2-Phase architectures require dual launches, in order to properly work with the capabilities of Jupiter. To this end, the ‘Staged TLI’ method from the original Jupiter proposal has been scrapped as well- it did not offer substantially better payload capabilities but forced increased cost through complexification of logistics and vehicles. The LASG has decided to use the 244 configuration Jupiter as is- without additional stages or multiple radically different kinds of lunar landers. It is worth noting that early on, Lunar missions may overlap and yield to ISS resupplies and crew rotations until Commercial partners take over, expected to occur in 2013 and 2017 respectively.

In the end this proves beneficial by forcing a large usable payload mass and volume for either option, which directly supports the goal of a sustainable lunar outpost. Both proposals also include a Lunar Logistics Staging Outpost (LLSO). Such outposts, and the priority focus on Lunar activities through 2020, will allow adequate testing and staging grounds for Mars, and support the extension of “Safer, Simpler, Sooner” to the Mars program.


3.1 1-Phase
Operationally, 1-Phase’s first lunar missions begin with launch of a JUS-T, which is met hours to days later by the Lunar Stack. The Stack is refueled, and its JUS performs TLI, as well as most of LOI. CargoStar finishes LOI, and Stack rendezvous with LLSO. CargoStar performs the surface sortie from LLSO, refuels on Surface, and returns crew to LLSO. CEV returns the crew to Earth.

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Fig. 1: 1-Phase’s mission architecture. Lander image is a placeholder.

1-Phase is unique in that it focuses on the slow long term aggregation of assets. The return to the moon is delayed in favor of increased short term LEO support. 1-Phase uses CargoStar (See Section 4.1). Prior to the Lunar return, a series of Jupiter launches, both crewed and uncrewed, would construct two additional stations: a small LEO outpost to later serve as an orbital port, and the aforementioned LLSO. The latter would be complete by 2016 and serve as a staging point for Lunar return in 2018, while the former would begin construction in 2014, and continue slow construction as launch cadence and schedule allows, through 2024. As outlined in Section 3, Lunar Focus would give LLSO and Lunar sortie missions priority through 2020.

3.2 2-Phase
A.
Similar to 1P, in Phase One of the 2-Phase proposal, the lunar stack rendezvouses in LEO with a JUS-T to refuel. The Lunar stack’s JUS performs TLI, LAST finishes LOI, and performs the surface sortie. CEV returns the crew.

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Fig. 2: 2-Phase’s mission architecture for its first Phase. Lander image is a placeholder.

Phase One begins the practice of large volume on-orbit cryogenic transfer, to gain experience and perfect reliability and safety of systems prior to Phase Two and future Martian architectures. Additionally, it builds confidence in LAST and the deep-space capabilities of the CEV.

B. For Phase Two of 2-Phase, a single Jupiter launches CEV; the Lunar stack (if on JUS) refuels from LEO depot, JUS/JUS-L performs TLI and LOI, CEV rendezvous with LLSO. LAST performs surface sortie from LLSO, refuels on Surface and returns crew to LLSO. CEV returns crew to Earth. This mission format is flexible to many specific mission payloads and types.

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Fig. 3: 2-Phase’s mission architecture for its second Phase. Lander image is a placeholder.

Phase Two involves a number of logical upgrades to enhance reusability and sustainability of the system. The LEO tanker is replaced by a depot serviced by Commercial and International partners. LAST serves as a ferry between LLSS and the surface zones. LAST-U ferries cargo, delivered with CEV. For larger cargo, a CSM provides basic power, maneuvering capability, and LOI/rendezvous propellant and propulsion, as outlined in Section 4.4C.

3.3 Infrastructure Advancement
In space reuse of as many elements as possible will provide a strong foundation for a future cis-lunar economy. JUS will be designed with this purpose and capability in mind from the get go, allowing extremely easy reuse via Lunar or LEO refueling. JUS may serve as a first generation cislunar tug in the sustainable long term phases of both outlined architectures. Similarly, their respective landers may serve as first generation lunar shuttles. Together with the slow construction of small outposts, the establishment of a foundation for Earth SOI space infrastructure is made easy, through the use of dual purpose or easily evolvable hardware. The visions LASG has outlined here finally fulfill the original visions of Von Braun and others at NASA during the 60’s, for a fraction of the cost.


4 Landers and Spacecraft
Due to the different timetables and slightly different initial requirements of the two Architectures, LASG has selected and adapted two pre-Altair lander concepts that each suit the needs of one of the Architectures. This section outlines those lander selections, as well as basic proposals for other required spacecraft and variants.

For the lander for 1-Phase, LASG selected a design from the Altair lineage, which, while retaining Altair’s robust design, offered greater potential, and could properly utilize the long lead times of 1P. LASG found Langley's CargoStar (0609-LLLPS-LaRC-A) capable of meeting these requirements, with some adaptation. Its low flatbed cargo bay enables easy access to payloads, unlike on landers like Altair or the 2P’s LAST. Additionally, the horizontal configuration that allows this enables CargoStar to carry more propellant for the same diameter, by simply lengthening the tanks, without impacting any other lunar operations.

As discussed in Section 3.1, CargoStar’s increased capabilities relative to Altair do not necessarily offer the ability to meet the ‘Sooner’ part of the DIRECT philosophy; LASG suggests targeting a Lunar return in 2017, rather than 2014, if CargoStar is selected, so that there is ample time and lower peak funding to ensure completion and on time delivery of the lander. Additionally, this extra time, and the fact that CargoStar would be delivered in the Crew Ferry variant as a result (See Section 4.3) would require less long term funding post-delivery to reach sustainability for the architecture.

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Fig. 4: NASA Langley 0609-LLPS-LaRC-A

CargoStar would be 8.2 meters in diameter, but due to its launch perpendicular to its operational ‘Up’ axis, it is 8.8 meters tall on the Lunar surface. During launch, it would be 10 meters tall; 10 meters long on the Lunar surface. CargoStar would use LH2/LOX propellants. Unlike LAST, it would use 4 downrated RL-10s as its propulsion, for both Descent and Ascent. One of these engines is proposed as the LAST ascent engine. CargoStar’s increased propellant load compared to Altair means that it is more than capable of performing some of LOI, and still performing the surface sortie in a single stage.

4.2 2-Phase Lander
Similar to the process used to select the lander proposal for 1P, LASG looked to the past to find a concept with some development that could be effectively produced without the size problems plaguing the late Altair, and delivered in a much shorter time frame. LASG identified the 0810-BAA-1 concept from Northrop Grumman as being suitable for the task. This concept would become the Lunar Adaptable Surface Transport (LAST) for 2P.

LAST would have an 8.4 meter descent stage, slightly smaller than Altair’s 8.8 meters. Much like Altair, it would use a combined hab/ascent stage. The airlock would be fixed to the descent stage. Their configuration and the descent stage’s size reduction reduce the overall height to 8.5 meters instead of 9.7 meters.

Altair was vastly overbuilt due to the need to perform all of LOI; this need, while still
existent, is reduced significantly through orbital refueling of JUS, enabling it to perform part of LOI.


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Fig. 5: Northrop Grumman 0810-BAA-1

LAST would also retain use of LOX/LH2 propellants. This presents LAST with a unique new opportunity: by refilling propellant on the Lunar surface, a subtype of LAST is able to conduct a full sortie to LLS and return with a single stage. The Ascent and Descent engines are variants of RL-10 that are downrated and significantly uprated respectively. The Ascent engine is shared with CargoStar.


4.3 Lander Variants
LAST and CargoStar both provide a design easily morphed into several variants. Both landers would include a Crew Ferry subtype, as well as uncrewed Cargo and Tanker subtypes. It is worth noting that for these landers, modification does not necessarily mean additions to an already built vehicle, but fundamental design changes and thus production line changes as well, much like the many variants of commercial jets. All variants are Single Stage, possible due to the extra margin afforded by the removal of the need to perform some of LOI, as discussed in Section 3.2B. It is worth noting that CargoStar is delivered in single stage configuration and does not need further modification to fit this requirement. (See Section 3.1) Additionally, further development may indicate a requirement for an additional Transfer Tug to ferry LAST or CargoStar from NRHO to LLO.

A. The Crew Ferry variant would require the removal of all ascent stage hardware that is only necessary for ascent. This includes the ascent engine and associated fuel lines, as well as the possible removal of the ascent tanks. A small extension to the Descent Stage barrel would ensure proper fuel margins, which may negate this need. The separation hardware for the Ascent Module from the airlock would also need removal, and it would be permanently fixed to the descent stage. The final large modification would be removal of the Ascent Engine exhaust deflector panels. Power would be supplied by an enlarged battery bank and fuel cells.

B. The uncrewed Cargo variant would similarly require removal of the Ascent Engine exhaust deflector panels, but would require removal of the entire ascent stage. In its place would sit a lightweight truss supporting a platform for universal cargo mounting, as well as a small crane. To facilitate long duration lunar stays between potential uses, a singular deployable solar panel and an enlarged battery bank provide power. During hibernation the bank and panel would only power critical systems.

C. The Tanker variant would include nearly all of the modifications of the Cargo variant, but would include a permanently mounted LH2/LOX tank. To combine costs, development, and production resources, the Tanker variant could instead feature the tank as a payload of Cargo, which is operationally never removed. This would reduce the tank payload slightly, as it would maintain the cargo deck, but this loss should be minimal. Tanker flights from the Lunar surface would have to be fast, as long term cryogenic storage equipment is heavy and only basic equipment would be mounted on the Tanker.

4.4 Support Spacecraft
Development of the following vehicles is critical for the operations of both Lunar Architectures. LASG recommends a JUS Tanker, a JUS Depot, and a Cargo Service Module (CSM). These vehicles, together with commercial partners, enable the establishment of a routine and sustainable Cislunar Transport Network.

A. The JUS Tanker (JUS-T) is similar to the Lander Tanker variants. A large tank would be affixed as the payload of JUS-T. Propellant lines would be connected to the tanks of JUS, effectively creating an extended JUS with minimal modifications. Tanks could be manufactured in the JUS Michoud assembly lines. A standard JUS already contains the minimal hardware required for fuel transfer, including a temporary docking mechanism, propellant pumps, and the propellant transfer line mating plate. Ullage for transfer would come from bursts of RCS.

B. The JUS Depot (JUS-D) is nearly identical to JUS-T, but features a new propellant payload tank approximately 1.5 times larger, large CEV-derived solar arrays, long duration cooling equipment, and a large deployable sunshield. The increased propellant volume would allow it to refuel nearly 3 standard JUSs. It would be launched almost empty, with a propellant payload of approximately ⅙ of the total propellant payload tank volume. As with all JUS variants, it is equipped with a docking mechanism, fuel transfer pumps, and a fuel transfer line mating plate. Transfer would be facilitated by bursts of RCS. Further modifications would allow the long term permanent mating of multiple JUS-D to create larger propellant reserves.

C. The Cargo Service Module is a small service module derived from the CEV Service Module to enable long duration transfer and docking of payloads which do not possess the hardware for such activities themselves. Due to decreased power requirements, it has only 1 of the solar arrays typically mounted on CEV. It also removes the CEV Command Module protection and separation mechanism, in favor of a lighter weight Payload Truss. Additional life support hardware is removed, along with any associated lines running through the CM Umbilical Latch. The CM Latch is instead a plate mounted on the truss that is easily adaptable to fit a variety of payloads during manufacture, all the way through payload integration.

5 Summary
The two Lunar Architectures LASG has outlined in this document represent the near final evolutions of the work started during Constellation, and two viable paths that may effectively be carried out today in support of NASA and the United State’s future goals, namely remaining the leader in space exploration. LASG will continue to analyze, then select and refine, these architecture concepts for presentation to Congress before the end of FY2008. It is recommended that work then commence on the required vehicles with utmost haste. Speed, in addition to the extreme economization of DIRECT, is key to secure the program, and National leadership interests, well into the future. With Congressional approval, LASG is confident NASA will achieve a return to the Moon before 2020, as originally desired under Constellation, and lay significant groundwork for future voyages into the Solar System.

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To be continued...
 
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Didn't go for the title "Drops of Jupiter"? :)

Randy
That is a good one! Wish I had thought of it. Also considered were "Changing Tack" (after some light research into maritime terms) and "A Slight Change in Plan". Still quite fond of the latter... but I think this is the right one. Jupiter Ascending was also somewhat jokingly proposed...
 

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Excellent work, Gaero. This is something I'll definitely keep my eye on - your attention to detail is profound and I think you have a good grasp on the concepts and ideas that could lead to something like this. I'm also very glad I could continue to be a soundboard for you and your ideas, you've got something really solid here. I am very excited to see how it all plays out!
Jupiter DIRECT, even in its largest configuration, 244, will not have the TLI performance of the former Ares V rocket.
This line stood out to me early, what happened to Constellation, and how did it differ from OTL? Very exciting stuff to say the least.
 
Weather Update 07/17/23
It's been about 2 months since this story was started, so I figured I should give a brief update.
First, I am not on hiatus, nor is this story paused. We're gonna keep plugging away, because I have some really fun stuff planned down the line.

Second, Ch1 is coming. Very soon. For a variety of reasons, including big personal changes, progress has been slow, compounding the fact that the issue this chapter attempts to tackle has been a very hard one to write in a way I felt was good enough to share. I've had 4-5 major revisions, and at least 2 complete, from scratch, rewrites. However, I recently found a way I believe I can feel confident is high quality enough to post, but it did require a near complete scrapping (yet again). So again, it's coming soon. It's also worth noting Ch0 took about 2 months from initial conception to posting; I hope to get this rate down a lot after Ch1, because I can be more creative and less focused on historical sensibility.

Thanks for understanding. I hope you'll stick with me for what's to come!
 
Chapter 1: The Winds of Change
Hello!
As promised, here we are- Chapter 1! This chapter (and future chapters) will feature several names. Unless I state otherwise (or it's abundantly obvious, like a President), a good rule of thumb going forward is that all names are made up.
Again, thank you to defconh3ck for all of the help!
As far as I can see, from here the pace should increase and things will start to be increasingly different... and increasingly fun. I think that's it for now.
The winds of change are blowing. Can you feel them?

. . .
_____________________________
March 16, 2007 at 5:39 PM
________________________________

Evening to all. In case you've not heard through the rumor mill, it seems there was an accident at Marshall. The theory about an explosion was true. I have photos, courtesy of the Informant. I think I'll save my thoughts for now. In the meantime, keep your ears on what comes out of the Capitol. Until next time. - A.

Failure 1.pngFailure 2.pngFailure 3.pngFailure 4.pngFailure 5.pngFailure 6.pngFailure 7.png

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A New Direction for NASA?

May 27, 2007

By: Alice J. Hope
WASHINGTON - Last week, Josh Hamins of the DIRECT Team presented the Team’s work to the Senate Appropriations Committee, in an effort to sway the direction the National Aeronautics and Space Administration is headed. The DIRECT Team is a small group of volunteers, consisting of engineers and other NASA employees, concerned that the Administration’s present course will not yield success.

The presentation comes shortly after the release of the second revision of the DIRECT Team’s work earlier this month. Their hope is that this refined version, with support from the right political figures, could be enough to make their work a reality.

Constellation of Broken Dreams?
While President Bush’s 2005 Vision for Space Exploration presented a strong set of goals for the future, its implementation has floundered heavily. “The recent accidents at NASA’s Stennis Space Center and Marshall Space Flight Center have only further reinforced what the DIRECT team seems to have known from the start: there is a better way to continue American leadership in space” commented Senator Daniel Roberts (R - Louisiana). Senator Roberts has been key in pushing a bill that would shift Constellation by slowly implementing more and more of DIRECT.

But it seems that it's about more than just keeping the inspirational missions NASA is known for. Luisa Snyder (R - Utah) commented that “Without the Shuttle, we don’t have a ride to space. Which means in three or four years we could have to ride with the Russians. That’s not ok with me.” Senator Snyder was referring to the Russian Soyuz, which, without Constellation’s Orion spacecraft, could be NASA- and America’s- only ride to space for a decade following the Space Shuttle’s planned 2011 retirement.

The Path Forward
While the Committee seemed to slowly grow in favor of both DIRECT and Senator Roberts’s bill, before approving it at the end of the meeting, it now must pass through the House and Senate before NASA could begin to truly have a new path forward.
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An excellent chapter, super excited to see where this goes. Your storytelling style of using historical documentation is a really cool touch, and having a character like A guide us really rules. Can't wait for more!
 
An excellent chapter, super excited to see where this goes. Your storytelling style of using historical documentation is a really cool touch, and having a character like A guide us really rules. Can't wait for more!
Thank you! I'm quite excited for it as well...
 
Chapter 2: A Slight Change in Plan
Greetings all! We are back with another chapter. Some of this is more of the same, but regardless... it's necessary to understand the heavy currents of the river we're on. This one didn't take as long as the last one (1 month vs 2+). I hope to make this a trend in the right direction. We'll see. Enjoy.

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October 23, 2007

RELEASE 07-245

NASA Beginning Transition to New Heavy Lift Exploration System


New Direction for Ares Will Fulfill Vital Roles, New and Old

WASHINGTON - NASA has been tasked by Congress with realigning the Constellation Program, and its Ares I & V rockets, to ensure delivery of a system that will power astronauts back to the Moon, support the legacy of the Space Shuttle, continue high-quality jobs across the Nation, and provide a critical foundation for America's future ventures into deep space.

The new system, based on the work of the DIRECT Team, will enhance NASA, and America's launch capabilities, and coupled with the in development Orion capsule, continue the heritage of human exploration at the core of NASA. This is part of a larger roadmap set out by Congress in the bipartisan 2007 NASA Authorization Act, which also provides new support for the commercialization of crew and cargo launch to low Earth orbit, and additional support for the International Space Station until at least 2020. The system will be America's most powerful operational launch vehicle since the mighty Saturn V, capable of powering many new and ground-breaking missions.

"This launch system will continue the rewarding jobs of the Space Shuttle program, ensure continued U.S. leadership in space, and inspire generations," NASA Administrator Michael Griffin said. "This is a slight change in plan, but it will have major knock-on effects. President Bush had a vision of big dreams, painted by our rich heritage of exploration, and now we will see the fulfillment of that vision in a sustainable, yet awe-inspiring way. While the space shuttle was an inspiring vehicle, the next explorers will now finally have the chance to make the dream of one day walking on Mars, a reality."

This pivot from Ares is the result of months of debate and nearly two years of constant work to assure that America is delivered a rocket worth its money; one that can be modified, evolved, and tailored to suit a variety of missions and requirements for decades to come.

"While still developing and selecting new architectures for a return to the Moon, the selection of a launch vehicle now, with heavy shuttle heritage, allows NASA to fly soon and get lots of critical experience. This vehicle can start construction very soon." said James S. Mansford, assistant to the President for Science and Technology. "I remain eager and excited to observe and support NASA on this new journey."

The new system will ferry crews from low Earth orbit to Lunar space in Orion, NASA's Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle. The rocket will retain the liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen fuels of the shuttle, as well as its RS-25D engines power the core. Supporting the core are veteran 4-Segment Shuttle Solid Rocket Boosters. The base configuration will not require an upper stage, but an eventual configuration will feature an upper stage utilizing the new RL-60.

The decision to maintain commonality with the Space Shuttle was based on decades of NASA and industry analysis proving the feasibility and cost savings of common design and components can be a viable path forward and increase flexibility over shuttle. The new vehicles' first flights will be capable of lofting 65-80 metric tons, with a later version having a capacity of 110 metric tons.

The first flights will leverage existing engines, solid rockets, and other components from the shuttle manufacturing and assembly lines. These flights will enable NASA to decrease developmental time, cost, and risk, while accomplishing preliminary demonstration goals to prove more ambitious aspects of the program later on.

NASA opted not to offer competition-style bids for early production contracts in order to leverage existing Space Shuttle contracts, as well as effectively transition Constellation Program contracts. The specific strategy for procuring the later cores, boosters, and upper stage is being developed and will be announced at a later time.

To learn more about the development of the the new Jupiter Launch System, visit:


nasa.gov/newlaunchvehicle

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_____________________________
October 23, 2007 at 7:42 PM
________________________________


Jupiter, huh? Let's see if they can make him into a god...
 
Fascinating! It's not everyday you see a 2000s/2010s space timeline. I think that the cancellation of constellation + the end of shuttle flights mean this era is pretty darkly remembered by a lot of enthusiasts, but I think it's a time that's still worth exploring, especially in regards to some of the early Artemis proposals.

Hopefully NASA can also avoid some of the nastier budget cuts it got after the '08 recession ITTL, though how you might achieve that is a mystery to me.

I also see that the documentation you used suggests Russian and Chinese launchers for propellant? Could this mean a butterfly of the dreaded wolf amendment? Please do, Sino-American space collaboration is sick.

Wonderful timeline! Excited to see more
 
Fascinating! It's not everyday you see a 2000s/2010s space timeline. I think that the cancellation of constellation + the end of shuttle flights mean this era is pretty darkly remembered by a lot of enthusiasts, but I think it's a time that's still worth exploring, especially in regards to some of the early Artemis proposals.

Hopefully NASA can also avoid some of the nastier budget cuts it got after the '08 recession ITTL, though how you might achieve that is a mystery to me.

I also see that the documentation you used suggests Russian and Chinese launchers for propellant? Could this mean a butterfly of the dreaded wolf amendment? Please do, Sino-American space collaboration is sick.

Wonderful timeline! Excited to see more
Thank you!

I can't share much now but I have some stuff I'm working on in regards to your wishes... suffice to say it's quite fun.

Your enthusiasm and kind words mean a lot to me especially as I've fought motivation and other such issues to keep slowly chipping away at this. Thank you so much for that.

More stuff to come!
 
Chapter 3: Humble Beginnings
Evening all!

I don't need to go into the details, but I found it necessary to step away from this project publicly for some months. Happy to say I'm back now. Knowing I've said this before, I won't make any promises regarding regular schedules.
The past few months have not been without work, however! The work has continued, slowly but surely, and I'm as excited as ever about what this can and will become.

As ever, I can't wait to take you on this journey, and I hope you'll stick with me.
Thank you for reading. Enjoy!



The year 2007 proved pivotal for America’s space program. With the new approval of Congress, a new direction, and the pressure of a Shuttle Program in its decline, NASA found itself busier than ever attempting to begin knitting the framework for a new Lunar Program. First, it had the mammoth task of transitioning one era to the next. It was for this purpose that the Transition Coordination Group was born. They would be given one mission: to plan and execute the end of the Shuttle, and the birth of Jupiter.

The TCG started with known points. Not a year prior, SpaceX and Rocketplane Kistler had been awarded contracts to develop cargo resupply capability. This could fill in for some of the Orbiter’s missions, when they eventually flew. Despite the inherent risk of such a new and innovative endeavor, the clear support from certain congressional Senators, as well as Administrator Griffin, provided confidence to begin planning with these vehicles as fixed points- the vehicles would at least have the funding they needed to be ready, even if it took several years. Rocketplane had had some financial issues, but the TCG would keep a hand on the pulse of the COTS program to ensure its success.

Beyond COTS, the ISS was not complete. Planners projected at least 3 flights beyond 2010 to finish assembly, plus any additional flights to swap Expeditions and cargo whilst the COTS resupply vehicles became operational. There was no assurance that a crew gap could be avoided. Orion would not be ready in 2012, though Lockheed’s teams reported they could have a partially functional test vehicle ready for a flight test by that point. Their teams had breathed a collective sigh of relief to have their problems with Ares I’s limited payload alleviated. This left little choice for the TCG but to push the Orbiters’ expiration dates, or risk flying on Soyuz- much to the disapproval of Senator Luisa Snyder.

By year’s end, the Transition Coordination Group had received approval to officially book the Space Shuttle through STS-135, with intermittent COTS flights to begin shortly afterward. In early November, members from both the TCG and the Jupiter Development teams began a two week intensive study to determine the most feasible timeline for bringing Jupiter to Base Operational Status, wherein the vehicle, in a J130 Configuration, could fly Low Earth Orbit Missions uncrewed. The results of the study: a near-unmodified External Tank could handle the loads of early missions in the J130 class, allowing the possibility of a test flight within half a decade. The group agreed to reconvene in a year’s time to reassess the state of the program, and initiate planning beyond Base Operational Status. The next few years were going to be hectic, no doubt, but the TCG had a plan.




Andrew looked up from his reading, startled by the ringing. He looked at the telephone, hesitated a moment, pondering, before reaching out to pick it up.

Hello? Andrew Chen speaking.

Ah. Andrew. This is Administrator Griffin. Do you have a moment?

I- wel- of course.

Good. I’m sure you know that the new directorate has given us much work to do. NASA needs a new group to orchestrate where to go from here.

Yes- how does this pertain to me?

You’ve got friends in the administration and amongst the engineers. I’d like you to Head the new Lunar Architecture Steering Group.

Alright. When do I start?

Meet me in my office, Monday.

Yes sir. I’ll be there.


Andrew placed the phone down, and took a deep breath. A call from the sitting NASA Administrator is certainly a way to start a Friday evening. He resolved that the weekend would be a respite before the surely troubling time to come.



Mr. Chen? He’s ready for you.

Thank you.

Andrew slung his bag over his shoulder, breathed, and entered the office.

Andrew! Good morning.

Good morning sir.

Sit down. Let’s talk some more.

He placed his bag down next to the chair across the desk from Griffin, and took a seat.

Are you still up to the task?

I believe so.

Good. Because the work starts immediately, and is intense, as I’m sure you’ve guessed. The Group’s first job would be to conduct a study.

Nothing I’ve not done before.

Right, but this is different. I need serious proposals for a lunar landing, maybe two or three of them, on my desk in nine months.

That doesn’t sound impossible.

It’s not a notional study, Chen. It’s multiple different, nearly final, iterations of a plan NASA can set in motion as soon as the study is finished. I’m asking you to help architect how we go back to the Moon.

Andrew paused for a moment, words ready, but hesitating before they could be spoken.

I see. I’ll do it.

Good. You get to pick your team. And I’ll make sure you have anything you need as quickly as I can.

Thank you.

You have nine months. Don’t be late!

I won’t.


The Administrator stood up and Chen mirrored him as he extended his hand. They shook on it, and he left as he had entered. He walked down the halls of white lights, and old NASA photographs. The thud of his shoes changed to a clack as he entered the lobby. He exhaled, stepping into the sun and crisp air.

Here goes something.


 
Chapter 4: 2008, Already Late
Hello! This week, I'm trying a newer format. There's a lot going on in many places, and I thought it best to try a summary style. While it's a fair bit of words this time, we'll soon arrive at chapters with more illustrations. As ever, I hope you enjoy, and thank you for reading.



Andrew entered the Administrator’s office, recalling the uneasiness he’d felt nine months prior. This time, he noted, that feeling had instead been replaced with confidence. This was in spite of the anger he knew awaited him.

Andrew. Sit down.
Well. I’m not sure what to say. On the one hand, I’m glad you’ve delivered on time. On the other hand, WHAT am I looking at?


He waited while the administrator grasped for words.

You were supposed to get me a plan to get back to the moon and this? This dooms us! Depots, orbital refueling, SINGLE STAGE LANDERS?!

We did look at a smaller, less capable lander. It jus-

You removed it.

Yes. It didn’t meet our goals.

Our goals are to return to the moon. And that can’t happen if we get bogged down in all these little bits and pieces along the way! All these launches and money!

We’ll meet those goals. Administrator, do you want to go back to the moon? Or do you want to stay back on the moon? I assure you, this plan will get us there.

We’ll see what Congress funds.

I hope they’ll see the vision I present.

Good-bye.

Good-bye.

He got up and left as he had entered.



His confidence in speaking with the Administrator was not unfounded. Even as he was leaving the meeting that had appointed him head of the Lunar Architecture Steering Group in November 2007, he’d started planning.

Andrew had known from the start that he wanted to build a robust foundation for exploration. So he’d taken a page from the Direct Team’s book, and focused on a straightforward, adaptable, and pragmatic solution. Knowing full well that Griffin would never approve of his plan, he had his teams study a small lander, of the kind Griffin liked. He doubted they’d find it worthy, but it was important to look at all possibilities, and as a contingency against Griffin. He was correct. He’d been able to deflect any major initial opposition; if there was no evidence to back up their claims regarding conservative hypergolic landers, they might have been forced to take another several months to go back and fix it. Those few months were not time that could afford to be lost, as for Andrew’s gamble to pay off, each part had to occur exactly when and how he intended.

The linchpin in this gamble relied on 2008’s election. Regardless of who won, it would not be Bush, and Griffin was likely on the way out. With a fledgling lunar program, it also may look unfavorable to any campaigns to counteract the gathering momentum coming out of 2007’s NASA Authorization Act. The timing of the HLEA’s publication date relative to the election cycle could not be more perfect. Once Griffin chewed him out, he had only to convince a handful of congresspeople, as the DIRECT Team had done not even a year and half prior, and do so before the election. It was with this knowledge, and much preparation, that Andrew walked into Griffin’s office that morning. The future was in his hands.



In late 2007, following the acceptance of Jupiter, Orion had been retitled from the Crew Exploration Vehicle to the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle. Lockheed’s Orion division was rather excited. Ares I’s eternal struggle to meet mission payload requirements had previously forced the division to evaluate strategies to reduce mass, and prime on the chopping block had been the capability to touchdown. Until the Ares rockets’ cancellation, the land versus water recovery decision had been leaning heavily toward water. This would, of course, have come at the expense of increased complexity in ground logistics, as was the tradition for Constellation. The extra mass afforded by Jupiter had not only solved many many of the painful struggles to meet ever-changing requirements overnight, but had renewed old ideas. The door to a landing in the American desert had been reopened, and with it, the possibility of reuse.

Before anything could be flown again, it had to first fly. To fill the crewed spaceflight role of the Shuttle in any manner of timeliness, Orion had to meet an ambitious new schedule. The Transition Coordination Group had assured shuttle flights through 2011, and was assessing how best to continue afterwards. Lockheed hoped that they could aid planning, and brought to TCG sub-group meetings early in 2008 a plan to have Orion flying as soon as possible. Lockheed’s plan aimed to pin down a preliminary design for Orion by year’s end, as well as begin abort system testing. By 2012, a stripped down MPCV, utilizing only hardware necessary to test recovery, would be flown with a boilerplate Service Module. The flight would be conducted on a Jupiter 130. Ultimately, Orion was to enter operational service by 2014, flying missions to the ISS.



Lockheed wasn’t the only company making ambitious new plans. Hoping to get a lucrative contract to be a part of Jupiter, in March, Pratt and Whitney Rocketdyne contacted their counterpart across the Pacific. Mitsubishi had completed some component testing of a new sixty-thousand-pound-force Hydrogen engine only three years prior; while not officially canceled, the program had since lain dormant. Official Request For Proposals had not yet gone out for the Jupiter Upper Stage, but surely they would need an engine. Through partnership with Mitsubishi, P&W Rocketdyne hoped to reduce risk on both ends and ensure selection. The classic RL10 was also listed as a potential JUS engine in the DIRECT V2.0 Proposal, but a completely new, more powerful engine could help cement their status as the go-to American rocket engine manufacturer for decades to come.

Mitsubishi wholeheartedly agreed to the partnership and resumption of development of the new engine. The Japanese were more than aware that such a program could be their buy-in to the new American Lunar program, and it was therefore a smart investment. If nothing else, they’d end up with an upgrade for their H-Series rockets, offering a competitive edge for the coming decade.



The Transition Coordination Group reconvened on November 10th, 2008, a year after the conclusion of their first annual review meeting. This time, they brought to the table Lockheed’s new plan for Orion, DIRECT V3.0, and the days-old result of the 2008 election. With President Obama soon to be in office, there was some sense of urgency to cement a plan before the inauguration. The new Administration, while tolerant of existing assets and funding levels, would likely not be as keen to let funding ramp up in any manner.

DIRECT V3.0 encompassed all the latest revisions to the Jupiter Proposal, and represented the final design that would be manufactured after initial development launches. New additions included the formal (instead of hastily amended) inclusion of the SSME as the engine of choice for the Jupiter Core Stage, and the intent to continue the RSRB recovery program from the Shuttle. Still omitted was the official design of the Jupiter Upper Stage, only several concepts left in as holdovers from DIRECT V2.0. It was hoped that, by not yet making a decision, JUS development could be pushed back just enough to ensure its funding, after Jupiter completed the bulk of its development.

Meanwhile, Orion’s first Launch Abort System motor was several months from its Pad Abort-1 test, but the pathfinder mockups were being stacked, and processes practiced, in preparation for that day. The TCG spent the proceeding three weeks, running into the first week of December, fleshing out an official roadmap including the first three Jupiter launches, all Orion tests, and the first flight of the COTS program, slipping it in for review before Christmas.
 
The engineering/science half of this TL is of course fascinating, but at this point I'm almost more enamoured by the politics. Going over Director Griffin's head! You clever, sneaky bastards.

Of course, with the incoming Obama administration, I have to wonder if Bolden will still be granted the top job. To my knowledge he was a fairly competent administrator, if a little weak against pressure from the private sector. There are a lot of prestigious shuttle-era astronauts still floating around at this point though, so it's not like the president is poor on good alternatives.

The most interesting thing for me, on the congressional/budget side of things, is whether NASA is going to be able to wring any more funding out of the 2009 Stimulus Bill. OTL they got a measly billion dollars from the act, but I reckon with a little bit of extra schmoozing of representatives and senators, you could kick that number up a bit. "Senator, NASA needs the funding! Don't you realise we're going back to the moon?"
 
The engineering/science half of this TL is of course fascinating, but at this point I'm almost more enamoured by the politics. Going over Director Griffin's head! You clever, sneaky bastards.

Of course, with the incoming Obama administration, I have to wonder if Bolden will still be granted the top job. To my knowledge he was a fairly competent administrator, if a little weak against pressure from the private sector. There are a lot of prestigious shuttle-era astronauts still floating around at this point though, so it's not like the president is poor on good alternatives.

The most interesting thing for me, on the congressional/budget side of things, is whether NASA is going to be able to wring any more funding out of the 2009 Stimulus Bill. OTL they got a measly billion dollars from the act, but I reckon with a little bit of extra schmoozing of representatives and senators, you could kick that number up a bit. "Senator, NASA needs the funding! Don't you realise we're going back to the moon?"
I'm glad you're enjoying the gritty inner workings. Frankly, they're the part I simultaneously despise researching and writing, and yet the part I enjoy the payoffs of the most. As for kicking that funding up a little, you're on the right track.
 
It also helps that this concept for Jupiter is effectively SLS come early - which, for all its flaws, is a capable rocket.

Are we still going to get COTS in this timeline? And if we do, is that going to get expanded into a Commercial Crew Program down the road? Even if NASA settles on the Jupiter family of rockets, I can't see Congress wanting to pay the cost of launching a full Jupiter for every single station crew rotation - and the political realities that make being reliant on Soyuz lifeboats for NASA/ESA astronauts questionable are still looming in the distance, unless something changes big time.
 
Are we still going to get COTS in this timeline? And if we do, is that going to get expanded into a Commercial Crew Program down the road? Even if NASA settles on the Jupiter family of rockets, I can't see Congress wanting to pay the cost of launching a full Jupiter for every single station crew rotation - and the political realities that make being reliant on Soyuz lifeboats for NASA/ESA astronauts questionable are still looming in the distance, unless something changes big time.
COTS and its evolution into, I think almost certainly. By 2006, those contracts are issued and in work. By 2007, barring any butterflies, the K-1 is once more dead and buried and the contract for the second COTS slot rebid with reduced requirements. By early 2008 Orbital Sciences had won the contract with Cygnus, and by December 2008 the contracts were issued for the first commercial cargo flights. Unless something goes really quite radically wrong, pivoting away from COTS and CRS at that point is quite difficult.

Commercial Crew, however, I doubt comes to be. A contract to stick Orion onto a commercial LV like Delta IV Heavy or something to reduce operational costs? Maybe. But if Orion will be flying to ISS by 2014, why spend $6 billion or more additional to get....the same capability. It takes a lot of years at two flights to ISS a year to pay back the investment even if it saves $300m a flight. And, of course, in the meantime, that's $6b you've had to spend on ISS crew access development above and beyond the existing Orion access, and cant spend on lunar lander development or something like that. When trying to do lunar landings on a tight budget, better to spend the money you do have on the most critical development, not duplicating something you already have or are already close to finishing developing so that maybe in ten or fifteen years it will be cheaper overall.
 
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It also helps that this concept for Jupiter is effectively SLS come early - which, for all its flaws, is a capable rocket.

Are we still going to get COTS in this timeline? And if we do, is that going to get expanded into a Commercial Crew Program down the road? Even if NASA settles on the Jupiter family of rockets, I can't see Congress wanting to pay the cost of launching a full Jupiter for every single station crew rotation - and the political realities that make being reliant on Soyuz lifeboats for NASA/ESA astronauts questionable are still looming in the distance, unless something changes big time.
I mentioned COTS in Chapter 3:
Not a year prior, SpaceX and Rocketplane Kistler had been awarded contracts to develop cargo resupply capability. This could fill in for some of the Orbiter’s missions, when they eventually flew.
I tend to agree with much of what eofpi said, particularly this:
By 2006, those contracts are issued and in work. By 2007, barring any butterflies, the K-1 is once more dead and buried and the contract for the second COTS slot rebid with reduced requirements. By early 2008 Orbital Sciences had won the contract with Cygnus, and by December 2008 the contracts were issued for the first commercial cargo flights.
As for the rest of what e said, I haven't touched on Orion and its relationship with Commercial Crew yet for a variety of reasons; just because I haven't discussed something yet doesn't mean that I haven't given it thought. Finally, for the groups in the story, the best laid plans...

Oh, and regarding Jupiter being SLS come early- there are many similarities, but that's not entirely true. Again, it's a long journey, and what you all can see is only a small part of what I've planned.

I appreciate everyone's interest!
 
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