An NFL what if...

[fb111a]

1979 NFL Draft - Pete Rozelle comes to the podium and announces:
"With the 39th pick in the 1979 NFL draft, the Chicago Bears have drafted quarterback Joe Montana from Notre Dame."

How does this change the course of NFL history - not only for the Chicago Bears, but for the league in general?

Montana goes to a team that not only has arguably the best running back in NFL history in Walter Payton, but fullback Roland Harper, who ran for 992 yards in 1978.

 

[Fearless Leader]

Why would the Bears draft Montana? IIRC he had a less than stellar draft rating and was generally regarded as average. Furthermore, a little research shows that on paper at least,they were pretty strong at QB with Vince Evans and Mike Phipps. Evans was seen as the QB of the future and the plan was to let him develop. Add in to that the fact that Phipps played well towards the end of the 1978 season and the maturation of Vince Evans, I don't see them drafting Montana in 1979 as he would basically be an Evans clone.

Given the 1979 Bears' perceived strength at QB and Montana's average reputation pre-draft, I just don't see this happening unless the Bears get magical foresight glasses.

 

[AmericanCataphract]

Erm...who's he going to throw to?

I wonder how well he'll do in a non-West Coast offense - and in fact, the West Coast offense will never catch on the way it did. Steve Deberg was a good quarterback, but I don't see him leading the Niners to the titles they gained in '81 and '84, which will keep the West Coast offense from catching on as it did.

 

[fb111a]

Why would the Bears draft Montana? IIRC he had a less than stellar draft rating and was generally regarded as average. Furthermore, a little research shows that on paper at least,they were pretty strong at QB with Vince Evans and Mike Phipps. Evans was seen as the QB of the future and the plan was to let him develop. Add in to that the fact that Phipps played well towards the end of the 1978 season and the maturation of Vince Evans, I don't see them drafting Montana in 1979 as he would basically be an Evans clone.

Given the 1979 Bears' perceived strength at QB and Montana's average reputation pre-draft, I just don't see this happening unless the Bears get magical foresight glasses.

Here are Bears stats from 1978:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/chi/1978.htm

Phipps threw 10 interceptions against 2 TDs in 6 games (4 starts). The alternative was 25-year-old Bob Avellini, who in 13 games (12 starts) threw 5 TDs against 16 interceptions.

Neither performance seems strong.

As for who Montana throws to... well, start with Walter Payton, who had 50 receptions for 480 yards in 1978. That gives Montana a weapon similar to Roger Craig. Then there is James Scott, who in 1978 had 42 receptions for 781 yards and 5 TDs. Roland Harper tosses in another 43 receptions for 340 yards.

So, Montana is not without weapons. The problem is that they are mostly centered around the backfield. But their 1978 QB situation is not strong.

 

[AltSptHst]

Erm...who's he going to throw to?

I wonder how well he'll do in a non-West Coast offense - and in fact, the West Coast offense will never catch on the way it did. Steve Deberg was a good quarterback, but I don't see him leading the Niners to the titles they gained in '81 and '84, which will keep the West Coast offense from catching on as it did.

I agree with that statement. Montana was the right QB for that offense.

That being said, I think that Joe would have done a decent job in Chicago. He doesn't lead the Bears to very many SB titles, however.

 

[Unholy Mistress]

I agree with that statement. Montana was the right QB for that offense.

That being said, I think that Joe would have done a decent job in Chicago. He doesn't lead the Bears to very many SB titles, however.

the Bears alest get two I say.

 

[fb111a]

I agree with that statement. Montana was the right QB for that offense.

That being said, I think that Joe would have done a decent job in Chicago. He doesn't lead the Bears to very many SB titles, however.

He is short of offensive options when compared to the 49ers, but on the other hand, he is on the field with perhaps the best running back ever to play the game in Payton.

Montana probably benefits from two things in 1979-1980:
1. Payton is a superb receiver out of the backfield. Even with Phipps/Avellini in 1978, he lodged 50 receptions. With Joe Montana? Payton now could rack up 60-70 receptions a season. Montana has his "Roger Craig" from his rookie season.

2. Teams will hyper-focus on Payton. At that point, nobody really pays attention to that rookie quarterback with the Bears... and Montana is probably smart enough to make them pay with play-fakes to Payton. And with wide receiver James Scott and tight end Greg Latta, the Bears have some decent options to pass to.

So by the 1981 draft, the Bears will know they have their quarterback, and they have Payton. They will start looking for the O-Line to protect them, and the players to complement them.

But an offense lead by Montana and Payton combined with the 46 defense? Figure that from 1984-1988, the Bears could very well pull off a five-peat in the Super Bowl, with at least one more championship in the 1989-1992 timeframe.

 

[AltSptHst]

He is short of offensive options when compared to the 49ers, but on the other hand, he is on the field with perhaps the best running back ever to play the game in Payton.

Montana probably benefits from two things in 1979-1980:
1. Payton is a superb receiver out of the backfield. Even with Phipps/Avellini in 1978, he lodged 50 receptions. With Joe Montana? Payton now could rack up 60-70 receptions a season. Montana has his "Roger Craig" from his rookie season.

2. Teams will hyper-focus on Payton. At that point, nobody really pays attention to that rookie quarterback with the Bears... and Montana is probably smart enough to make them pay with play-fakes to Payton. And with wide receiver James Scott and tight end Greg Latta, the Bears have some decent options to pass to.

So by the 1981 draft, the Bears will know they have their quarterback, and they have Payton. They will start looking for the O-Line to protect them, and the players to complement them.

But an offense lead by Montana and Payton combined with the 46 defense? Figure that from 1984-1988, the Bears could very well pull off a five-peat in the Super Bowl, with at least one more championship in the 1989-1992 timeframe.

I don't know if Scott and Latta were that great.

Here's another idea:

With their first pick in the 1979 draft, Pete Rozelle goes to the podium and announces:

The Bears select Kellen Winslow, TE, Missouri.

They could take Winslow in round 1 instead of LB/DE Al Harris, take DE Jesse Baker in round 2 (a similar player to Harris), and take the demigod in round 3.

Then, in Round 2 of the 1980 draft, they could have drafted WR Kevin House.

Those two would give Montana some options to work with moving forward.

 

[High Plains Drifter]

Very hard to separate Montana from the Bill Walsh "west coast' offense system. Harder to do that even than separate his value from the quality of his receivers.

1979 was Walsh's first year as coach of the Niners. Montana barely played in the 1979 season. He threw 270 passes in 1980. And clearly he became a star in 1981.

If drafted by the Bears, would he even have started as a rookie? Probably not. Isn't Vince Evans already the QB being groomed. Then if the Bears go 10-6 in 1979 to match IOTL (assuming all else stays about the same with the team), is he going to start in 1980 over a QB who took them to the playoffs or the already groomed Evans? Probably not again.

Montana's best chance to be the starting QB isn't until Ditka takes over as coach in 1982. The Bears, again assuming their defense stays really good to amazing through the "Montana" era, would have great chances to reach the SuperBowl each year from 1984 through 1988 and again in 1990 and 1991.

 

[fb111a]

Very hard to separate Montana from the Bill Walsh "west coast' offense system. Harder to do that even than separate his value from the quality of his receivers.

1979 was Walsh's first year as coach of the Niners. Montana barely played in the 1979 season. He threw 270 passes in 1980. And clearly he became a star in 1981.

If drafted by the Bears, would he even have started as a rookie? Probably not. Isn't Vince Evans already the QB being groomed. Then if the Bears go 10-6 in 1979 to match IOTL (assuming all else stays about the same with the team), is he going to start in 1980 over a QB who took them to the playoffs or the already groomed Evans? Probably not again.

Montana's best chance to be the starting QB isn't until Ditka takes over as coach in 1982. The Bears, again assuming their defense stays really good to amazing through the "Montana" era, would have great chances to reach the SuperBowl each year from 1984 through 1988 and again in 1990 and 1991.

Again, though, in 1978, Phipps had a 2-10 TD/Int ratio. In 1979, Montana easily bumps Avellini off the roster - and so, his chance to shine may come (and start) will come that year.

He goes 6-9 for 63 yards and a TD in relief of Evans in game 4.

His first start is Game six, against the Buffalo Bills.
In @, Avellini goes 4-for-8, 22 yards passing in a 7-0 win.
In TTL, Montana goes 9-for-14, with 116 yards passing and a touchdown in a 14-0 win (TD pass to Latta).

Second start: Game 7, against New England:
In @ Avellini and Phipps combined to go 8-for-15, 144 yards and a TD, Bears lost 27-7.
In TTL, Montana goes 17-for-26, 209 yards, two TDs, and an interception. Bears lose 27-21.

Third start: Game 8, against Minnesota:
In @, Payton, Phipps,and Avellini combined to go 16-for-30 for 302 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INTs in a 30-27 loss.
In TTL, Montana goes 19-for-29 for 271 yards, 2 TDs, one interception, and the Bears win a 34-30 game. It is also Montana's first 4th quarter comeback in the NFL, as the Bears get the winning TD on a swing pass to Payton with 53 seconds left.

He relieves Phipps twice later in the season, totaling 8-for-12 for 71 yards.

Montana's three starts: 45-for-69, 5 TDs, 2 picks.
His three relief appearances: 14-for-21, 1 TD.

Total: 59-for-90, 767 yards, 6 TDs, 2 int.

In 1980, he and Evans are clearly competing for the top spot. Evans has been groomed, but Montana's already flashing signs that he could be brilliant.

The Bears, feeling secure at quarterback, then trade Phipps to the St. Louis Cardinals for a 1981 2nd-round pick, a 1982 1st-round pick, and a 1983 1st and 3rd round picks.

1981 draft:
Goes like OTL, only the Bears use their pick from St. Louis to draft Cris Collinsworth.

1982 draft:
The Bears start by drafting WR Mike Quick and use the St. Louis pick to get Bubba Paris.

1983 draft:
The Bears get three first-rounders: Since they already have Paris and Van Horne at OT, they draft Bruce Matthews. They then draft RB/WR Gary Anderson (over Gault) and CB Darrell Green with the pick from St. Louis. Their third-rounder from St. Louis is traded for Atlanta's 1984 second-round pick.

 

[High Plains Drifter]

Again, though, in 1978, Phipps had a 2-10 TD/Int ratio. In 1979, Montana easily bumps Avellini off the roster - and so, his chance to shine may come (and start) will come that year.

Agreed, Phipps had a bad 1978 as the second string QB. Phipps used to start (poorly) for the Browns and was a Bears backup in 1977 and 1978. Avellini, the primary starter for the Bears in 76, 77, and 78, also had a pretty atrocious 1978 season. So if Montana is selected by the Bears (with a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round pick), I too see the Bears cutting Avellini.

1978 was Neill Armstrong’s first year coaching the Bears. Vince Evans was drafted in the spring of 1977 and pretty much road the bench in 1977 and 1978. But he got to learn Armstrong’s system during the 1978 season. If Bear’s management and Armstrong are ballsy enough to draft Montana, then I think they might be ballsy enough to make Evans the starting QB.

In 1979 IOTL, I can see some sense in the Bears QBs being allocated 1) journeyman QB, 2) groomed QB, 3) last three year’s failed #1 QB.

ITTL, I think they would commit themselves to go 1) groomed QB, 2) journeyman QB, 3) rookie QB. That would butterfly away Phipps game #2 injury. So when Evans inevitably gets pulled for being sucky, Phipps still could help the Bears go on their 7 and 1 season ending run to make the playoffs.

But ITTL, if the Bears go with a 1) journeyman QB, 2) groomed QB, 3) rookie QB approach, I don’t see the rookie QB getting much playing time, no matter how poorly the groomed QB plays, unless both the first and second string QB are out due to injury. I think Montana, unless due to emergency, is just going to ride the bench and learn Armstrong’s system. That is basically what Montana did in 1979 with Bill Walsh and the Niners.

He goes 6-9 for 63 yards and a TD in relief of Evans in game 4.

His first start is Game six, against the Buffalo Bills.
In @, Avellini goes 4-for-8, 22 yards passing in a 7-0 win.
In TTL, Montana goes 9-for-14, with 116 yards passing and a touchdown in a 14-0 win (TD pass to Latta).

Montana had 2 late season games IOTL where he had significant playing time. November 18, he went 3 for 5 for 30 yards and one touchdown. December 2, he went 5 for 12 for 36 yards. I think it not too probable that in the 4th game of the season of his rookie season he can put up those numbers.

Vince Evans started games 3, 4, and 5, all loses for the Bears. He played all of game 5. He did not play game 6 or really the rest of the season. I don’t know whether he was injured, but I suspect Avellini became the starter for Game 6 because the Coach was A) unimpressed with what he saw in Evans, and B) thought he’d have a better chance to win with a veteran QB. Unless Evans really is hurt, I don’t see Armstrong demoting Evans to go with an even more inexperienced QB.

Montana's three starts: 45-for-69, 5 TDs, 2 picks.
His three relief appearances: 14-for-21, 1 TD.

Total: 59-for-90, 767 yards, 6 TDs, 2 int.

59 completions in 90 attempts as a rookie? That would be a 65.5% completion rate. You know how many times Joe Montana had a 65.5% completion rate during his entire 13 year career? 3 times, and one of those was the 1992 season when he came back from his back injury and threw all of 21 passes.

Joe Montana is great. I think with the Niners he played in a system that benefited his strengths and he was supported by a fantastic roster. If he played his career with the Bears he’d still have put up Hall of Fame numbers and won Super Bowls. But he would not have put up numbers as good as he did with the Niners. Because its Chicago and Mike Ditka and “Da Bears” he might still have a similar mystic associated with him, but his career numbers (attempts, completion rate, yards, and touchdowns) would be fewer than IOTL.

In 1980, he and Evans are clearly competing for the top spot. Evans has been groomed, but Montana's already flashing signs that he could be brilliant.

The Bears, feeling secure at quarterback, then trade Phipps to the St. Louis Cardinals for a 1981 2nd-round pick, a 1982 1st-round pick, and a 1983 1st and 3rd round picks.

Agreed that Montana and Evans would compete. I think Evans would have played more in 1979 and been just as ineffective. Montana would have played little, so he doesn’t have an air of ineffectiveness. Still, Evans would be viewed as the incumbent. Montana has at best a 40% chance of being named the starting QB coming out of training camp. I think Evans would get the nod, but would have a very short leash. I see Montana getting his first start in game #5 of the season, right after the Bears got trounced 38-3 by the Steelers.

Whether IOTL, in my timeline, or in your timeline, it is utterly ASB that the Bears could pick up that kind of haul in trading Evans. At the best, and still pretty improbable in my opinion, they get one 1st round pick for him.

1981 draft:

Goes like OTL, only the Bears use their pick from St. Louis to draft Cris Collinsworth.

1982 draft:
The Bears start by drafting WR Mike Quick and use the St. Louis pick to get Bubba Paris.

1983 draft:
The Bears get three first-rounders: Since they already have Paris and Van Horne at OT, they draft Bruce Matthews. They then draft RB/WR Gary Anderson (over Gault) and CB Darrell Green with the pick from St. Louis. Their third-rounder from St. Louis is traded for Atlanta's 1984 second-round pick.

Extremely wishful thinking that they hit gold with every pick, even if the ASBs somehow arranged for them to acquire those picks.