An Equitable Equator: WI Sutan Sjahrir Became President of Indonesia?

Samurai911

I've just gone through a Socialist awakening courtesy of Youtube and my Sociology teacher. Seeing the current state of my homeland, with wealth inequality that's both overt and covert, I can't help but wonder what would happen if Sutan Sjahrir, a personal hero of mine as well as the founder of the now defunct-and-probably-illegal Socialist Party of Indonesia; through the hands of fate, somehow became the leader of Indonesia, replacing the two dictatorships of Suharto and Sukarno with a Socialist Democracy in Nusantara.

Personally, I actually think the scenario wouldn't be as rosy as I would personally like to believe. The US backed coup against President "Religion and Communism can work together" Sukarno was inevitable and from Truman through Johnson, the US was sorta coup happy, backing anybody as long as they weren't Red. But if Sutan Sjahrir succeeded, this could trigger a civil war that breaks the country apart.

If he doesn't, then I doubt it'll be too different from OTL with the Left being even more discredited ITTL than it is in OTL.

Thoughts?
 

GSD310

I think Sjahrir has got a few things going for him if seen from foreign perspectives:
-he’s not Soekarno
-he’s not a communist
-I don’t know if this will help in US government circles, but he went underground and didn’t collaborate with the Japanese.

Domestically, though it will be difficult for him considering that the PSI is a banned party and was thought to have supported the PRRI/Permesta movement.

I don’t know how socialist the PSI and Syahrir will be as a party. I’ve always seen them to be the closest thing Indonesia has had to a left-liberal party.
 

Samurai911

Historically the PSI had trouble gaining votes and their base were urban intellectuals like Sjahrir was. I think that was their biggest challenge.

The US weren't always so keen on the distinction between socialist and communist. At any rate, Sjahrir shared Soekarno's anti-imperialist ideology.
 

MbokDarmi

The most Syahrir can get is, IMO, Prime Ministership (remember before 1959 Indonesia is parliamentary democracy) Sukarno was simply too popular. Which he did already got in 1945 - 1947. He was dethroned thrice, first by fellow socialist then by the army. Both, he was saved by Sukarno. The third time is due to disappointment to Linggarjati Agreement, which he didn't survive

For PSI to win in 1955 election, the structure of PSI must radically be changed. PSI compete with PKI in gathering votes, which have large following among lower class. The only place where PSI got a satusfying result is in Bali. They even get a majority in one regency (Tabanan). This is due to, weirdly, Hindu religious support (my source didn't mention *why*) and their reputation as government's critic.

At most, PSI can only be junior partner in a coalition (e.g: Natsir's cabinet). PSI retain amiacably good relation with all party save PKI. If Permesta Rebellion didn't happen, the anticommunist Army might back PSI as an alternative to PKI (they did that back in 1948 IIRC, during Madiun Affair)
 

HJ Tulp

MbokDarmi said:
The most Syahrir can get is, IMO, Prime Ministership (remember before 1959 Indonesia is parliamentary democracy) Sukarno was simply too popular
Click to expand...

So what if Sukarno gets evacuated out of Indonesia in 1941? Would his popularity survive being away during the most important formative days of the Nationalist movement?
 

MbokDarmi

IMO, the formation of Indonesian nationalist movement isn't in 1941-45, but around 1920-30. Sukarno's PNI was established in 1927. Hatta's PI in 1924. PKI technically in 1916, but in 1921 they become a mass movement. Sukarno's role as leading revolutionary was already ethrenched by 1929, when he was exiled

That being said, Sukarno getting evacuated would still leave Hatta. Hatta and Syahrir was exiled together in 1934 to Papua. They return to Java together in 1942. Unlike Sukarno, both Hatta abd Syahrir alderady have qualms about fascism, especially the socialist Syahrir. Neverthless, they both decide that one of them will play collaborator and the other would play resistance

It is debatable, IMO, on how would various Japan-backed mass movenebt would grow without Sukarno, or whether they would appear at all. Hatta isn't an orator nor populist. He was commited liberal through and through

I don't know whether Sjahrir can play collaborator as well. His known socialist leaning is definitley at odds here. Plus many socialist (e.g: Amir Syarifuddin) also went underground, so he'll fit better

The way that Sjahrir can be the most prominent Indonesian statesmen is by making Japan less cooperative with Indonesians. Or maybe the urban politician less collaborative with Japan. This would make the nationalist movement be led by the undergrounds, like Sjahrir

Thr question is on how exactly independence would be achieved. Open rebellion most likely will fail, as the resistance have no strong supply of arms. 25th Army have no one to delegate power in 15 August. AFAIK the Japanese Army was ordered to keep law and order until Allied forces (and NICA) comes. When the NICA comes, its game over, the independence must be delayed until, idunno, 1970's? Sjahrir must somehow persuade Japan to transfer the power to him, obviously trickier than OTL transfer of power from Japan to Indonesia. And that's already tricky
 
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